NOC Low Power Mafia -- Mafia Win

[CrreamyKitty]

I mean if it mathematically locks town win then sure, let me crunch the numbers

 

[a fairy]

why does it not work with vanillizer?

isnt the math predicated off of bunyip doing things? the bunyip gets vanillized the moment they claim no?

 

[CrreamyKitty]

isnt the math predicated off of bunyip doing things? the bunyip gets vanillized the moment they claim no?

Why does the bunyip need to do things

 

[a fairy]

Why does the bunyip need to do things

i dont know why you're asking me this shit im not even in favor of massclaiming jesus

 

[apricity]

I mean if it mathematically locks town win then sure, let me crunch the numbers

it's not a mathematical lock, i counted we need to find 3 towns in the 12 VT claims, probably 2 counting the gun

which i really, really, really do think we can do

 

[a fairy]

15 alive, 4 scum
if no counterclaims:

3 town PRs
12 claim VT
of which 8 are town and 4 are scum

we have i believe 3 mislynches left and bunyip will be able to clear 2

so it's not guaranteed but it's pretty damn close (of 8 town, 3 can be ML'd, 2 can be cleared, so only need 3 obvtowns in it)

plus we have wagonomics

literally hal says here that the bunyip is clearing 2 people in this fullclaim math

 

[apricity]

ah fuck i forgot bunyip is a vanilla check not a rolecop

 

[a fairy]

ughhhhhhhhhhhhhh

 

[a fairy]

at least happy we worked through it, helpful convo

 

[apricity]

so we need ot find 4 town in 12

 

[apricity]

yeah, that's significantly worse -- let's not then

 

[apricity]

actually, in defense of this, realiti was a maf goon, so there's only one maf who can appear as VT to bunyip?

 

[Nuxl]

there’s only one instance where I think it’s best for skipper to claim and it’s bunyip with not vanilla

just vocalizing this though and this could def be a bad idea either way

 

[CrreamyKitty]

it's not a mathematical lock, i counted we need to find 3 towns in the 12 VT claims, probably 2 counting the gun

which i really, really, really do think we can do

I mean yeah it gives us really good odds, I just wonder if it is more optimal than PRs playing normally

 

[Nuxl]

yeah bunyip is 3/5 of a hit on a NV check

 

[CrreamyKitty]

actually, in defense of this, realiti was a maf goon, so there's only one maf who can appear as VT to bunyip?

Vanillaiser appears town asw

 

[CrreamyKitty]

Vannila town

 

[Nuxl]

oh nvm

 

[apricity]

Vanillaiser appears town asw

thank you

i forfeit this proposal

 

[Nuxl]

yea ignore what i just said Mb

 

[apricity]

Bunyip VT implies town with 80% probability

 

[Aura Guardian]

sometimes i forget that bluedoom is in this game and i don't like that

Same here.

(Here for a little bit)

 

[CrreamyKitty]

Bunyip VT implies town with 80% probability

I think bunyip is more optimally used as a doc anyways tbh

 

[Dead by Daylight]

well yeah but im not forgetting lechen

lechen has not voted that's why you remember him

 

[apricity]

I think bunyip is more optimally used as a doc anyways tbh

agree. i also think 80% is too low given that ex-ante is like, 75% lmao