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Election 2008, United States
- Thread starter Great Sage
- Start date
so in a "democracy" we shouldn't have a problem with what the government does with our coerceively extracted tax monies?
I still maintain that no bailout would have solved the basic problems with the economy (systematic bad managment, idiotic regulations that literally politicized the bank industry, reckless borrowing/lending) and any bailout arguably excaberates them in the long-term.
I think that, while there's no liquidity in the system, eventually the "bad assets" would have been assigned a value closer to what they are actually worth, and after a relatively short but severe slowdown/recession, things will pick up again - except that the economy will be relatively healthy (with all that bad paper naturally purged from the system, rather than saddling the already shaky government books), and with investment bankers having gotten a very good lesson about risk. Without a bailout, the issue of moral hazard (which is VERY relevant to Fannie/Freddie in particular, and Wall Street in general - I truly think many of these firms expected to be bailed out) is also alleviated
The fact is that this issue, in some form will come up again. And again. And again.
I still maintain that no bailout would have solved the basic problems with the economy (systematic bad managment, idiotic regulations that literally politicized the bank industry, reckless borrowing/lending) and any bailout arguably excaberates them in the long-term.
I think that, while there's no liquidity in the system, eventually the "bad assets" would have been assigned a value closer to what they are actually worth, and after a relatively short but severe slowdown/recession, things will pick up again - except that the economy will be relatively healthy (with all that bad paper naturally purged from the system, rather than saddling the already shaky government books), and with investment bankers having gotten a very good lesson about risk. Without a bailout, the issue of moral hazard (which is VERY relevant to Fannie/Freddie in particular, and Wall Street in general - I truly think many of these firms expected to be bailed out) is also alleviated
The fact is that this issue, in some form will come up again. And again. And again.
The US is a republic, not a democracy.
"... a democracy is a form of government in which the people decide policy matters directly... A republic, on the other hand, is a system in which the people choose representatives who, in turn, make policy decisions on their behalf."
"By popular usage, however, the word "democracy" come to mean a form of government in which the government derives its power from the people and is accountable to them for the use of that power. In this sense the United States might accurately be called a democracy."
Call me a cynic, but since when has anybody in power in the US been held accountable for their actions?
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I actually agree that without a bailout, the system would have solved itself, but that would have invariably taken much longer, and there could be no independent banks left standing by then. Many financial institutions simply do not have the capital to survive into 2009, so the bailout is necessary in my opinion. Yes, moral hazard is a problem, but the Fed is stuck between Scylla and Charybdis. Assuming Bernanke's predictions are even close to accurate, then moral hazard is a small price to pay for economic recovery. Unlike the aftermath of the technology bust, nobody is inflating a new bubble, so there is reason to hope that there will not be major long term fallout from this intervention.
First off, yes, you're right on both counts, though I was being semi-rhetorical.
First off, Ben Bernake? Wasn't this the same guy who in 2007 who was essentially saying "the economy is fundamentally sound" less than a month before the credit crisis? Seriously how the fuck is he remotely credible? As far as I'm concerned, he was either completely clueless or he was outright lying.
Like I said, in the short-term, it will be worse without a bailout - we will suffer a fairly deep recession (though recessions are overrated; people will not be in the streets). However, we need to look at the long-term financial health of the system.
The fact that an institution or group of institutions can literally become "too big to fail" is an enormous incentive to inflate bigger and more fragile bubbles, because they know that if they get big enough, they can actually force Washington to bail them out!
First off, Ben Bernake? Wasn't this the same guy who in 2007 who was essentially saying "the economy is fundamentally sound" less than a month before the credit crisis? Seriously how the fuck is he remotely credible? As far as I'm concerned, he was either completely clueless or he was outright lying.
Like I said, in the short-term, it will be worse without a bailout - we will suffer a fairly deep recession (though recessions are overrated; people will not be in the streets). However, we need to look at the long-term financial health of the system.
The fact that an institution or group of institutions can literally become "too big to fail" is an enormous incentive to inflate bigger and more fragile bubbles, because they know that if they get big enough, they can actually force Washington to bail them out!
I know I speak for at least Ancien Regime as well as myself when I say: good.
I don't think this war is over, this was just one battle. But this, I believe, is a step in the right direction. I really think that what we are witnessing today is a huge shift in this country away from the failed policies that dragged it down. This is the American people, in a 300 to 1 majority, telling Congress to take their wasteful ideas and shove them. It's our damn money and we're sick of watching it being given away. Ideologically, this is pretty historic.
I don't think this war is over, this was just one battle. But this, I believe, is a step in the right direction. I really think that what we are witnessing today is a huge shift in this country away from the failed policies that dragged it down. This is the American people, in a 300 to 1 majority, telling Congress to take their wasteful ideas and shove them. It's our damn money and we're sick of watching it being given away. Ideologically, this is pretty historic.
Thank you, Obama. Now, let's watch the economy blow up. =\
I've been watching the thing all day, and the thing I'm most worried about is "if the dow falls like 800-1000 people will freak out and think maybe we should pass this thing". I actually heard that the investors collectively decided to sell in order to push congress to pass the bailout.
If things look too bad, the groundswell of opposition to the bailout (which was basically 300-1 against it) might evaporate - we have this annoying ability to not look at the long term.
But right now, I feel quite hopeful, as DM said, that maybe, just maybe that the American people are strongly repudiating financial manipulation, corporate mismanagement, and governmental malfeasance.
If things look too bad, the groundswell of opposition to the bailout (which was basically 300-1 against it) might evaporate - we have this annoying ability to not look at the long term.
But right now, I feel quite hopeful, as DM said, that maybe, just maybe that the American people are strongly repudiating financial manipulation, corporate mismanagement, and governmental malfeasance.
I'm quite glad that we didn't give in to those idiots who wanted to be bailed out. The economy may go sour for a bit but it will recover, and hopefully they'll have learned a lesson. They got themselves into this mess, they can get themselves out.
As far as the debate, I'm of the opinion that Obama is no orator. I see absolutely nothing special about him, and I don't understand how everyone keeps propping him up by saying he's a great speaker. McCain is a shitty speaker and if Obama was really so damned great he would have stomped him. I saw nothing of any significance from either candidate.
Biden/Palin debate should be interesting though. Palin is horrifically inexperienced and wholly incompetent (I LIVE NEAR RUSSIA, THAT IS FOREIGN POLICY EXPERIENCE AMIRITE?) yet Biden has a strange talent for saying incredibly stupid things at especially inopportune moments regardless of his experience.
As far as the debate, I'm of the opinion that Obama is no orator. I see absolutely nothing special about him, and I don't understand how everyone keeps propping him up by saying he's a great speaker. McCain is a shitty speaker and if Obama was really so damned great he would have stomped him. I saw nothing of any significance from either candidate.
Biden/Palin debate should be interesting though. Palin is horrifically inexperienced and wholly incompetent (I LIVE NEAR RUSSIA, THAT IS FOREIGN POLICY EXPERIENCE AMIRITE?) yet Biden has a strange talent for saying incredibly stupid things at especially inopportune moments regardless of his experience.
Now, the counterargument is that "if we don't do this we'll suffer great depression II" but this scenario really hinges on the idea that banks simply will be too scared to lend to each other for a prolonged period of time (along the line of 5-10 years) - to be honest, I think that this is paranoid at best and outright scaremongering at worst.
At some point the "toxic assets" (really mortages that are so laden with obscure terms and difficult-to-understand conditions that they are difficult to evaluate) will find a reasonable selling value - the fact is, many of these mortgages have NOT defaulted - they still have value, and that value will be determine.
At some point the "toxic assets" (really mortages that are so laden with obscure terms and difficult-to-understand conditions that they are difficult to evaluate) will find a reasonable selling value - the fact is, many of these mortgages have NOT defaulted - they still have value, and that value will be determine.
I loled at the japan recession/depression - 0% interest, and still no borrowing.
Asian people like to save and not borrow :O (thats a generalisation in good humor)
Asian people like to save and not borrow :O (thats a generalisation in good humor)
I feel that Barack Obama is building his campaign on empty promises. the guy hasn't run anything in his life, whilst John Mccain broke practically every bone in his body for the United States. Sure he may be extremely old, but that's why Palin's backing him up.
Welcome to politics.
In the polls, Obama leads McCain by 8 points according to Gallup and by 6 points according to Rasmussen.
Also, Palin's recent gaff has drawn a bit of media coverage.
I'll never understand this point of view. It's extremely short-sighted and misguided. Just because he fought for this country he's automatically qualified to be president? Also, what does Obama have to "run" to gain your approval? An entire country?
As for Palin backing up McCain, that's a train wreck. Go read Fareed Zakaria's Newsweek Editorial on her.
If you want Palin to lead your country, you deserve everything you'll get.
Mainly speculation over a redraft of the bailout.
I'm going to have to get back to you on that chaos.
I don't think Palin is going to do good in the debates (she's kinda like Barak in that the speeches are good but the straight question/answers are kinda iffy), but I just have a feeling Biden will screw it up somehow. Rather, the media will make it appear he did something stupid. Probably he'll make some harmless remark and someone will play it up as being sexist and condescending and Palin will come out on top in the debate anyway.
Yeah, seems like an oscillating crash to me rather than a direct, one-way crash.
Keynesian economics practically mandates intervention in a depression, but the open question is whether the bailout is the right sort of intervention.