I wish to nominate Lugia to test it's performance in the current BW OU metagame. After doing an in debt analyse regarding this pokemon's capabilities, i predict they will rather be underwhelming for a 680 base stats pokemon. Probably not as rare as Kyurem but not as omnipresent like Tyranitar (who has about 660-670 basestats in sand), residing somewhere in between.
For this argument, i'll be examining Lugia's performance against the top 20 most used pokemon in this metagame as they form the very core of what we know as the BW OU metagame. Any pokemon who is rarely succesfull against these threaths both defensive and offensive or can provide significant support in the form of permanent weather, cannot hope to achieve the dominate the metagame, or becoming banned altogether.
Summary of Lugia:
- Absurd high walling stats comparable to Cresselia
Lugia's main and only selling point, however as shown by Cresselia's current usage those are clearly not enough for a dominant force in the metagame.
- Vulnerability to Sandstream and all status, weakness to Stealth Rock nullifies the advantages of a Spikes/Toxic Spikes immunity.
Nearly any succesful wall in the fifth generation enjoys near complete immunity to residual damage. Which proves that it is something considered necessary before adding it into the team. The only exception to this is Jellicent who is probably still used for its immunity to Rapid spin, a novelty Lugia lacks as well. Lack of Toxic immunity can be lethal at times, once poisoned Lugia can be determinded as near useless the rest of the game.
- Lack of a reliable resistance spread(Grass, Fighting, Psychic and Ground immunity)
In generation 5 where everything hits ridiculously hard, raw defensive basestats are not enough to take repeated hits. This is clearly shown in the statistics by the popularity of Gliscor, Skarmory, and Ferrothorn who have pretty much the best defensive typings in the game. Grass and Psychic are rather useless resistances while Fighting and Ground isn't enough for reliable walling. Considering the fact that nearly all ground and Fighting types have a move that hits Lugia by super effective damage. In other words Lugia will often have to face full damage from offense taking attacks twice as hard as the other walls who often completely resist a sweeper by their typing alone, essentially nullifiying the base stat advantage.
- Average movepool and ability.
Unlike some fellow ubers like Mewtwo and Kyogre, Lugia is really lacking in this department. Whirlwind, Toxic, Screens, Thunder Wave and Roost are all moves who can be found on nearly any flying type. It can utilize Toxic but it lacks the Fire/Fighting moves necessary to deal with the Steel types immune to it. It doesn't have any entry hazards to make use of the switches it forces, nor does it have Taunt to prevent sweepers from setting up and walls for setting up their entry hazards with little to no fear.
Pressure has the rather limited usage of a PP staller. While PP stalling with Lugia's massive walling stats may seem interesting at first, it unfortunatly lacks the offenses Zapdos has to deal with those who are immune to Poison. Seeing as its Stab's are both resisted by Steel and only has one moveslot to spare for offense. As a result it will only become set up bait for the like of Scizor and Excadrill or for those who set up entry hazards like Ferrothorn and Excadrill.
Defensive Lugia vs most popular threats
(Note: All these matchups take Stealth Rock into account of both sides, considering its presence is such that it has become a part of a common battle condition)
Tyranitar: Lugia 'can' win 1 on 1 if it utilizes a set with the Reflect/Roost/Toxic combination to the fullest. Provided Lugia is facing the more common defensive Tyranitar rather than the still used CB Tyranitar. Needless to say Lugia won't be switching into Tyranitar anywhere soon.
Ferrothorn: This defensive threat can always switch into Lugia with little to no fear. Even the rather orthodox Hidden Power Fire will fail to land a 3HKO. Meanwhile Forrethorn can leech seed to recover damage, lay down entry hazards or cripple Lugia through status.
Garchomp: Garchomp won't be a problem for Lugia as long as it carries Ice beam or to a lesser extend Whirlwind. The only exception is in case Garchomp carries Choice Band and Lugia is unable to outspeed. Another is the notorious 'sand veil' misses however this can be applied to everything.
Scizor: Lugia lacks any moves to prevent the popular SD scizor from setting up in front of it. Even the most defensive of Lugia cannot survive repeated hits of a +6 LO Bug bite after Reflect. Lugia can choose to run Hidden Power Fire instead however, will become set up bait for Garchomp instead.
Gliscor: See garchomp
Latios:Choice Spec's Draco Meteor deals 56.5% - 66.6% damage, which is a swift 2HKO after SR. Lugia would need max SpD/HP investment to ensure surviving the combination of 2 Draco Meteors and Stealth Rock. However this particular investment would severly limit Lugia's ability to defeat Physicall sweepers.
Rotom-W: To beat it 1 on 1, Lugia would need to roost repeatedly to survive repeated Thunderbolts. This can be succesfull provided Rotom never lands a paralyze not a crit. Lugia doesn't make a decent switchin into Rotom however.
Excadrill: Lugia can't do much more than attempt to Whirlwind away its boosts, provided Excadrill switched into Lugia rather than the other way round, in which case Lugia will fall.
Reuniclus: Any non-whirlwind set is set up bait for the CM set. Needless those say who do carry it will only delay the problem towards the end game. After 6 CM's Psychic does enough damage for a 2HKO. Lugia 'can' wall the Trick room sweeper as Shadow Ball only does
Heatran: Neither pokemon can hurt each other which means Lugia will win due to Pressure stalling. Lugia will have to be wary for those who run Toxic or Lava Plume which appear to be more common higher on the ladder and in tournaments.
Jirachi: Lugia is a sitting duck in front of the most popular set(wish/para support). While Jirachi may not be able to beat Lugia, it can still switch in, paralyze and support the team through Wish.
Dragonite: See Garchomp
Conkeldurr: A Poisoned +2 Conkulldur does 54.8% - 64.9% damage with Payback to a max Def/HP Lugia with Reflect. Which means that unless Lugia carries Aeroblast or Psychic it will not be able to switch in and stall it with Poison.
Politoed: A choice Spec's Hydro Pump does 62% - 73.1% which is a swift 2HKO. Lugia does not make a solid switchin to the defensive set either due to Toxic.
Gengar: A LO Shadow Ball does 56.7% - 66.8% damage to Lugia, i suppose this is a no-brainer.
Skarmory: See Ferrothorn
Thundurus: See Gengar
Jellicent: Neither can switch in each other due to the threat of status
Starmie: LO Hydro Pump does 52.6% - 62% damage to 252 HP Lugia. Lugia usually can't touch starmie due to its Ice resist and Natural Cure.
Volcorona:
Offensive: +1 Quiver dance does 65.1% - 76.7% damage to 252 HP Lugia
Chestorest: Lugia can't touch this due to this set's immunity to Toxic.
Defensive Morning Sun: This set is only used in permanent sun which does 62% - 73.1% damage to Lugia with a +1 Fire blast
Summary: Out of the entire top 20 the 'Great Wall' set only reliably counters Heatran, Garchomp, Dragonite and Gliscor. These results are laughable considering Quagsire can do the same and wall several others. Lugia may be able to wall a few others with a different ev spread and moveset however will have to sacrifice the ability to counter those mentioned above.
CM Lugia
Often mentioned as the 'unbeatable calm minder' in arguments that defends Lugia's uber status. However with a closer look one can find a reliable method to deal with this set without having to significantly change your current team. I will spare the reader for another list of matchups and rather write down a summary of how it can be done.
- Any random wall that has Toxic beats this set. Substitude or Resttalk may prevent this but makes it near impossible to sweep due to lack of coverage.
- Tyranitar will always beat the CM set if it doesn't carry HP Fighting. Do note that even HP Fighting does not guarantee winning against a t-tar that switched in. Considering the CB set set can OHKO with SE while HP fighting has a 'chance' to 2HKO after one CM.
- Ferrothorn and Scizor can switch in any set that lacks HP Fire. Ferrothorn cannot defeat Lugia but Leech seed and Sandstorm will make it near impossible for Lugia to sweep. It can't beat Jirachi either even after 6 boosts, Skarmory can whirlwind repeatedly and stack Stealth Rock damage.
- CM Reuniclus with Psychock always wins
- There is pretty much nothing in this metagame where Lugia can easily set up in front of it.
Summary: Despite the insane defensive stats the CM set may not be as difficult to defeat as it seems. It lacks the offenses and reliable STAB's to defeat it's counters after just one Calm Mind. To make things worse residual damage will make its life hell severly reducing its massive defenses. When compared to the current dominant CM'er Reuniclus it appears that Lugia is inferior.
Final conclusion (for the TL:DR amongst you)
Lugia is what one could call a two sided sword. One who has the stats of an uber but the movepool, typing and ability combination of something that belongs in the newfound RU tier. The result seems to be something that balances out, something that will most likely find its spot on several ou teams but not enough to become top tier nevermind being broken.
Perhaps i have overlooked something during this in-debt argument. One cannot possible predict every outcome through theorymon alone in this complex strategy game. However one thing is certain, the total base stats of a pokemon alone are not enough in this metagame to perform well. Kyurem's low usage has proven this and the thought that something with 430 basestats like Quagsire to seemingly wall more than Lugia show this as well.
Any test or experiment should always start from a solid hypothesis. I hope that the hypothesis shown above can prove that Lugia is worth the time and effort for attempting a suspect test