Mafia From the Depths - GAME OVER, INSANE WIN

To answer my own question (I'm bored, whatever), I'd lynch Empoof. The vibe I'm getting from his post is that, as a mafia, he know's I'm town, but he also knows that I'm coming under heavy village fire at the moment. He wants to hop on the bandwagon, but is "preparing for a Walrein town flip" to give him an out.

Yes, this is the same argument that's been used against me before, but Empoof is doing it much more blatantly, and the logic makes perfect sense to me.

Unvote Metal Sonic, who is not nearly off my radar yet, and vote Empoof.
 
Walrein using the popular "Better hop to the next largest bandwagon" strategy to end the day quickly!

Unvote Empoof
Vote Walrein

I'd still love Empoof's responses to aska's post.
 
Spiffy's using the popular "Completely ignore the logic in the post and only notice who he voted" strategy to end the day quickly!

At least acknowledge that my post makes sense, and promise that if I get lynched today you'll lynch Empoof's ass.
 
OK, you're clearly not reading my posts.

I still think Metal Sonic is mafia. I said as much in the post on the top of this page. After Empoof's post, however, I'm even more certain that Empoof is mafia. I didn't even notice that he had the most votes, I thought it was still Metal Sonic (I may have a slight tendency to skim votecounts :/).
 
Oh, I meant to say that it IS what you meant... my point doesn't make sense otherwise.

Who do I lynch next when you flip town? That's a bit of a loaded question. I suppose I'd take a harder look at Metal Sonic.

You'll have to do better than "if you lynch me you'll be sorry!!" As of now, I remain unconvinced by your Metal Sonic argument. If you can show me that Metal Sonic is more deserving of my vote than you, I will switch. While I am currently at about a 9/10 scum read on you right now, my mind is open.
 
@aska: I did leave that RVS vote on Eagle4 for around 12 hours, which is kinda long for me in RVS. And I'm not sure what you mean by "zorbees could be the type of player to vote his teammate first". As far as I'm aware, even mafia should be randomly picking during the RVS.

@walrein: I'm a bit suspicious of the "if i am lynched and flip town, who do you lynch next?" Why do we have to commit an answer to that now, when this day still hasn't fully played out, let alone the next day?
 
This is a decent post, actually, but it's REALLY noncommittal. You say Walrein is scum but then prepare for when he flips village (wtf). I would love a more detailed post about your zorbees read, too. Either your mafia and don't want to tie yourself down to any one target, or you need to grow a pair and take some stands.

Sorry, I was going with the idea that nothing is 100%. I didn't prepare for when IC would flip, and ended up realizing that there was little information gained from him being town. I'm speculating what the next step should be should he end up not being mafia, and was motioning towards how adamant spiffy was about that. Then saw spiffy as town. etc. etc. stuff i've said.

I read through all of Zorbees posts this time, pointing out where he talked about Eagle. My FoS has waned:

During D1, i see zorbees move around RVS with Eagle because of Eagle's copying my lynch vote (rather than RVS) and sentry wagoning. Short lived, moves vote away (towards me then other places). He, like many others, didn't really talk about Eagle, until this post, where he slightly calls him out during the cypher lynch pressure. WIFOM could've been zorbees doing this just to say he did during D3, wtv. Another post, addresses Eagle then points lynch towards SS, then "double posts" to point out that SS lynch is the best lynch. Other stuff happens.

D2:
Zorbees talks about Eagle for a moment, saying he is leaning towards scum but also new, and saying there are better targets (IE Spiffy), which is basically what anyone thought of Eagle at the time. I'd like to note that Zorbees also voted to Sentry Jalmont early on, which is a boon for him. Zorbees then starts addressing Eagle's weird post. Eagle is at L-3 at this point, so reasonable to bring it up then. Then Zorbees doesn't want to move to L-1 for fear of someone hammering, which i don't personally agree with, but he makes a few cases for it. He ends up not voting him because of this though.

I had tunnelled onto his inability to vote L-1 onto Eagle and this post, along with Eagle's hard town read onto Zorbees. Which i should've not really taken seriously.

Eagle has pressure a lot of users and from that I've gained town reads. Eagle's lack of anything negative to say about zorbees doesn't make zorbees scum, but i don't get the luxury of labeling him town yet.

I'm mostly noncommital because through my readthroughs there is usually enough evidence to rule out the scummy suspicions i have from something else that's happened that i didn't take into account (like just now). I'm still scum hunting, i might just defer to process of elimination.

Spiffy said:
Walrein do you think Metal Sonic would be experienced enough to pressure Eagle4 hard for all of Day 2 [if he was mafia]
This why i can't vote for Metal Sonic
 
The LightWolf, even half asleep won't go back on his promises, staying up til morning hurts though...

jalmont:

Honestly? Got nothing, he was against posting early reads p much, all he seemed to do day 1 was put a vote on eagle, then when eagle wagon got going he switched to zorbees for not wanting to put it to L-1. Day 1 is worse.

Eagle:
Day 1:

Eagle voted Shining Latios as a rand right after Empoof, no way in hell he'd have done that if Empoof was mafia with him, unless he didn't notice.

Eagle points out Walrein and Eagle got a town feel. No way he'd name two mafia partners, one of them is most likely village

Jumps to defend TPM when small accusations happen due to him saying "hopefully this post was un-suspicious enough". Doesn't appear to talk about TPM in the future at all, minus mentioning his fairly obvious inactivity. Until TPM votes him that is.

As already mentioned, Eagle jumps on the SL started Metal Sonic bandwagon, later calls fellow voter IC more suspicious than Metal Sonic, even though it has only been a few posts, should have noticed this previously... Same post he says he thinks SL might just be mafia, but in a way that seems to give off him not wanting an SL lynch: "It seems like people think Shining Latios is mafia, and I have to say this could be true. I'm not saying it's a given, but it certainly seems likely."

He then switches over to SL, but at the time MS was p much off the hook, and not much seemed to stand between SL and sure death. He also votes SL, instead of IC who he has said was more suspicious than MS. Though after the change, Eagle never unvoted, but that could be for various reason(lack of time? team told him not to? thought himself he shouldn't? sl is village? etc, WIFOM all over)

Day 2:

Eagle and Jalmont parley a bit, then as reaction to Spiffy's argument he stops buddying Walrein and turns on him. Stopping to buddy I can understand, but Walrein was in no danger, Eagle was fairly safe as well at the time, he doesn't need to turn on him too. It feels more like jumping ship, Walrein is not the right guy to buddy, time to turn to Spiffy.

Same post he attacks me but proceeds to vote someone else, for fairly similar reasons such as "not answering questions". I can honestly figure this out objectively, since he didn't have any reason to start a desperate attack as of yet. His reasonings seem also fairly bogus so he or his team got to have a reason for these kind of accusations. Another interesting thing is, TPM also fairly inactive, but other than a simple mention of him and empoof not posting at the time on day 2 yet, he didn't bring him up like me, when I do feel we were in fairly similar in most regards he had addressed me on.

SS starts the actual bandwagon on Eagle, would make him fairly clean, which hardly matters as day 2's end provided one of the best proofs you can get in this game for cleaning.

More Cowbell and Metal Sonic join the wagon fairly early, but at that point it may just be mafia realising how much Eagle fucked himself over there. Fairly likely to be town though, since it would be very early cut Eagle off at that point. Now everyone after that is though is p much a WIFOM, no one can really tell who knew or didn't know about Eagle's insanity before or after voting.

Eagle proceeds to reply to most votes, here one interesting thing shows up. He generally sounds calm to me, but he gets more personal replying to askaninjask and TPM, maybe he is subconsciously angry at his team mates, or just thinks their reasonings were bogus and is fustrated over getting lynched like that? Well you can decide yourself, both if the replies sound personal, and how good the lynch reasonings sound.

As for his, to say so distraction targets, in order they appear to be SS SL and me. He may or may not be bussing one of those or WIFOM, a more experienced player made him pretend bussing.

He later asks Walrein about him hurrying up his analysis on Eagle. Now honestly, walrein never posted it. WIFOM reasons exist for this, but I believe Walrein just truly didn't have time/was too lazy(maybe because I'm just as lazy...). For more solid reasoning: Walrein said he'd do it, Eagle asked him to do it, then if two team mates agreed on it, and by the time Eagle requested it's speed up it was still the plan, why did the plan get stopped? If third mafia ended up being against it, the plan should have been very likely shut down before Eagle would ask for Walrein to do it quickly. Also as a mafia I feel Walrein would be more pressured into keeping his promises rather than appearing suspicious for not doing it in the end, so the "he could be mafia and be lazy at the same time" argument kind of doesn't cut it for me.

Eagle posts big read on SS, pointless due to the latters cleanness.

Eagle dies.

So based on the EAGLE part only, nothing else taken into account, I get the following opinions(did end up doing them from the bottom up though, so I suggest you read it like that):

Walrein

His buddying while a bit more high profile than the others, just appears to be Eagle's general attitude towards more experienced players. That being said he seems to fall into the same No Opinion category as zorbees and friends. Though the bigger amounts of buddying than the others is a bit evident, but that is easily WIFOM, which just adds to the whole lack of opinion based on Eagle's posts.

Shining Latios

Another target of Eagle's. But in his case, he actually had connections with Eagle from day 1 as well. Combined with potential bussing and the fact he only actually voted SL day 2 when he was already L-3(and that he changed it back to SS again when there was actually a chance of survival), there is also the jumping on the MS wagon started by SL.(and I'm leaving out the hypocrisy, because as I said, this is eagle direction only) Possible Scum.

LightWolf

One of the three Eagle spent day 2 gunning at, can't help to be subjective about myself, so make the decision yourselves(for this and really all I posted)

Spiffy

See zorbees, minus the deciding vote he put on Eagle, but Eagle never reacted to him, I guess he saw no point anymore. No opinion FROM the EAGLE'S thing

More Cowbell

Early on the wagon, same as Metal Sonic, minus the stupidity... Probs town

askaninjask

See zorbees, minus that he voted Eagle, and that Eagle's reply to this vote was similarly in a more personal tone. No opinion FROM the EAGLE'S thing

zorbees

He honestly wasn't a mentioned much by Eagle and didn't actually vote him. Eagle's opinion on most bigger names is pretty much trust in nearly every case, and even when he turns away from one for a small time, they return as his trusted. No opinion FROM the EAGLE'S thing

TPM

One small buddying when TPM was a small suspect day 1, then when TPM voted him Eagle's reply felt a bit personal. Possible scum

shinyskarmory

Counterlynch and starter of the actual wagon, clean as it can get.

Empoof

Eagle was fairly sure of his cleanness, and I don't know how he was overlooked in favour of Eagle buddying with Walrein. But Eagle did vote the exact same rand lynch target as him at the start of the game, with minutes of difference. Call me crazy, but I think if you saw your partner rand lynch someone right as you were gonna randlynch, no way in hell would you vote the same guy as them. This would honestly only work with my level of paranoia being the mind the two voting the same rand... Voting your mate as a rand is one thing, this is I feel different enough to slip by most people. End result? Probs town.

Metal Sonic

Fairly early wagoner on the Eagle lynch. Sure his scumhunter this scumhunter that is annoying, doesn't mean it isn't a good argument for being Probs town.



Considering my vote is still on the suspect list, and the reasons just repeated themselves, my vote doesn't change. I'd be willing to lynch TPM too though, and if provided fair enough reasoning, any of the No Opinion people. It's not farfetched that one of them could be mafia, and Eagle's attempt to not reveal his experienced friend OR FRIENDS. Though most likely friend, can't imagine what two experienced people could do together, the fake fights that clean the other, brrrrrrr.
 
Two more things: "

*all jalmont did day 2" do not be surprised if you find anything else that won't make sense, I need sleep

AND

I honestly can't reply to the current situations now, LET ME SLEEP.
 
Hi @ Lightwolf,

Once again I really do doubt that Shining Latios is scum, sure he may be unhelpful but scum isnt that stupid!(they have teammates mind you)


Our definition of finding scum should be: Seemingly helpful, yet eventually not helping the town majorly. Players who are "too good" or "too bad" shouldn't be considered as scum


Once again to reiterate, putting someone at L-2 helps to generate responses that can accurately tell if the person is scum or not. This is what happened on Day 2(Spiffy & Eagle, I got a town read on spiffy and a scumread on Eagle)


Lets look back to the post which Walrein(whom I view as scum, and now he views me as scum too OFC) cherrypicked: http://www.smogon.com/forums/showthread.php?p=4589838#post4589838

The post was very clear in bullet form; it was before I have voted Eagle and just about when I was getting my town read on spiffy: At 3 days before deadline. At then, I already had a town read on shinyskarmory(which Eagle conveniently cleared, and now he's being an ungrateful dick just because he got randed by the ded scum!).

In contrast to our progress today: I have not gotten any new reads on any players this day, it is less than 2 days(2 days iirc) before the deadline and Nobody is at L-2(I am pushing for the fukin L-2 on Walrein gdi if the last two mafia wishes to ninjahammer go ahead)


It is very difficult to get any reads on anybody today. This day is a lot less fruitful than Day 2.(we got scum! I predict that this failed day will result in a townie mislynch!)


Walrein, why did you push for the shinyskarmory lynch on Day 2? Your response was insufficient. I had found him town; you have found him scum.

And here's a really hypocritical point that you can try to argue against: [If your reads are so bad,"SS for scum Eagle for town!", proven wrong, and I got the correct read, then shouldnt I be dictating the reads and not you? ]

And I dictate that you are scum! what do you say to that?
 
Some good posts being made overnight.

I'm getting a better feeling about askaninjask due to his posts. Meanwhile, Spiffy only posted a few small posts, one of which targets Walrein for a reason that can be applied to his own post as well (''better hop on the next bandwagon''). This leads me to believe that askaninjask is town, and Spiffy may be scum.

Good post by LightWolf, the only thing is that it is based entirely around Eagle4 being mafia. Now, this is a good thing to go by, of course, since Eagle4 was mafia, but the problem remains that you have a lot of people on whom you have no opinion. You say you have no opinion on zorbees, Walrein, Spiffy and askaninjask regarding the Eagle4-thing, but what is your general opinion on them?

Also, one player that has not posted in a long time is TPM, with his most recent post being from two days ago. TPM, is your vote still on zorbees, and if so, why? And if he's not, who are your current suspects, and why?

Finally, due to his recent, helpful posts, if find it a good move to sentry askaninjask.
 
Votecount 3.5

Lynch:
Walrein: (4) Spiffy zorbees Metal Sonic Empoof askaninjask Spiffy
Empoof: (3) Shining Latios zorbees Spiffy askaninjask Walrein
Metal Sonic: (2) Walrein More Cowbell shinyskarmory
Spiffy: (0) askaninjask
zorbees: (1) TPM
Shining Latios: (1) LightWolf
LightWolf: (0) shinyskarmory
Not Voting: (0) No one!

Sentry:
askaninjask: (4) askanjniask Spiffy shinyskarmory Metal Sonic More Cowbell
shinyskarmory: (4) LightWolf TPM Walrein zorbees askaninjask
More Cowbell: (1) Shining Latios
Spiffy: (0) shinyskarmory
Metal Sonic: (0) Metal Sonic
Not Voting: (2) Empoof, zorbees

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch. Deadline is in 32 hours, 10:00 PM GMT (midnight GMT+2).

~*~

TPM has been prodded twice and will be subbed out.
 
ugh...last thing we need is some new player destroying all of our reads on TPM.

I'm not really sure about a Walrein lynch, I feel like he's making the same defenses I was back before the whole day two debacle. Back then every time I posted somebody thought I was more and more suspicious, and I kept stacking up votes even though a lot of people were on Eagle until...yeah that whole thing happened. And with Metal Sonic (he's fairly scummy in my opinion) pushing so hard for a Walrein lynch, I think that we should consider that Walrein is town but just getting tunnel visioned.

Anyways, here's what I'm thinking right now. We have a little more then a day left and we can't afford to waste it. So here's what I suggest (just a suggestion, feel free to ignore it):

unvote
Sky Attack Walrein

Quite honestly, I don't want Walrein dead, but we need to make something happen today. So here's the plan:

unvote
Lynch Empoof

I'd love to lynch Metal Sonic but realistically too many people view him as a noob town to muster a majority, so I'll have to let him go for today.. I think that him rushing to lynch Walrein is VERY suspicious, and for that reason I'd rather not lynch Walrein today.

Empoof is a better lynch because he wasn't all that active Day 2 (not entirely his fault but it was still irritating. Additionally, he was the other user Eagle4 had a "town read" on. I think our best shot at hitting mafia is to lynch Empoof today and analyze his flip. If he flips Mafia we have another perspective to analyze, allowing us to cross reference his reads with Eagle's to find the final mafia. If he flips Town then we should lynch zorbees or Walrein tomorrow, because based on their voting patterns if Empoof is not mafia then one or both of them almost certainly are.
 
@B_T: is the askaninjask sentry vote on shinyskarmory supposed to be shinyskarmory's vote?

@Metal Sonic: Walrein is at L-2 right now. 6 votes to lynch, he has 4 now.

I'm becoming more suspicious of Walrein over the last couple of pages. One thing in particular I didn't like was his response to Empoof's "why did eagle4 ask you for a read on himself?" Walrein said that Eagle4 could have wanted a town opinion on how he was playing. But, if that is the case, why ask Walrein? Certainly it wasn't universal, but several users had voiced suspicion on Walrein. Why not ask askaninjask or Jalmont, or even Spiffy, who seemed pretty clean to most of us after his responses under pressure? My view on this issue is that Eagle4 asked his teammate because, in a close lynch vote, he wanted a final argument, from someone other than himself, to move the lynch away from him.

However, I'm sticking with my philosophy of not putting him to L-1 while we still have over 24 hours. This time, deadline is at a more convenient time for me, so I should be up and online leading up to it.
 
Shining Latios would you rather lynch Walrein or Empoof today and why?

Empoof. I just don't like the inactivity he had. I know he is posting, but I don't see anything that makes me think he is town yet. I also don't quite understand why everyone wants to lynch Walrein and I am heavily confused at this point on that (here comes the posts). Although I always had a bit of a gut feeling Walrein is mafia, I am not 100% sure.
 
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