NOC Dragon Ball Z NOC - Day 4

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while some could see that blazade post as defensive/protective of BT, i think he's right that eliminating one of the for-sure kills in broly or android 17(?) could easily be more important than BT at this point in time

on the other hand, it could be required crossfire that'll damage the mafia and give us our only chance of winning. hard to say quite what benefits town the most atm
 
You can't assume you can roleblock a roleblocker, and there's the transporter and other things that make it even more confusing.

The only person who can determine a neutral is the town cop that had to target BT last cycle.
 
Even more than that I think it's more important for people to get a chance to talk now that android signaling isn't a thing and we have another night of results to influence people.

Time for me to look for the android signaling in Flyhn's posts
 
post #15 - Vegeta claim is up to them

#86 - Vegeta and Buu should claim as "PR"

#128 - Misunderstands claim rules, etc

#175 - US and LW are at each other throats all the time but US appears more inconsistent, vote UncleSam. Lets Asek slide.

#184 - I only voted US because I have to vote no godkillerino plz

#192 - In Fire and Ice, you vted three people, but here, you voted FIVE people. That makes you scummy, Sam

#239 - I would tryhard as village and mafia

#281 - Billy should post more, vote Billy

#292 - Billy acts like I did, but I was trash and billy isn't so he's scum

#457 - I was busy yesterday, hang tight!

#468 - Vote Count Analysis

#483 - VCA is about scumpools not scum

#486, more VCA, votes Haruno

#489 - Scumhunting is gut, I have strict reqs, backpedals on US read, Haruno is OMGUS

Last post - Haruno disappeared, should be lynched



No signaling here. Also JOAT should have shot B_T last night if we are being perfectly frank but it makes sense to be afraid of transportation.
 
also fyi good thing todays lynch is decided cause i will be afk until wednesday, ill prob have a few min to read the thread each day but camp can be busy af and tiring af so v little energy to put towards it and no tl;drs

catch u scumlords l8r pls kill me already
 
Blazade said:
Anyway speculation:

Macle is looking real androidy for his completely irrelevant last second vote on me, that wagon had 1 vote on it and I can't see a reason other than signaling.

With no Vegeta I doubt Cell would kill so Broly either got roleblocked or hit Cell/JOAT protect, so we should take some time to let Town RB/Tracker/Watcher think about possible implications
Click to expand...

just here to say that you are retarded because i was literally lynching anyone so i didnt get god killed and you are scum
 
ppl who think the neutrals are a threat confuse me our only chance right now i feel is praying for xfire, and removing a kill right now probably hurts us (especially given that the neuts also probably want to kill mafia here). blazade as a result is making me ??? but i'm letting him go on the basis that i don't think both him and lw are scum

and speaking of LW, he's so bad it hurts so there's that. i can't see any world where he's good at this point. all his votes have been bad, his fighting with villager unclesam looks really bad in hindsight, i don't think there's really any way to defend him. anyways

read this line if you read nothing else - it's very likely i think that the mafia used the transporter to transport to the godfather. the other option would've been to kill off a villager, but obviously that didn't happen as we only had one kill. if you are the cop and you ended up inspecting someone other than BT as town, it's extremely likely that they are the godfather. i think that'll be very important down the line so please don't forget that.

in fact i think that's basically a claimable result right there, but with no bg i dunno. joat should still has a save so i think it's at least worth risking it.

Asek is either mafia or has a guilty result on someone, I'm not sure which. If you have a guilty you should probably indicate that by voting like today. Please check with the hosts to confirm that isn't a claim though.

Twin/rssp/king_/internet/macle are all in the same boat for me in that I just feel "eh". Twin was previously bad for me, but I like him better now. rssp hasn't been very noteworthy and I think he's probably most likely scum, but I don't want to lock that in quite yet.

billy/yeti/dle all good. don't think they are neutral either.

neutral is mithril plus one of the 5 mentioned i mentioned that are in the same boat. twin is a good contender there i feel. otherwise maybe rssp? dunno but that's my fault for not being sure of what he's said so far
 
the reason i think the BT --> transporter is likely is because there was only (presumably) the mafia kill. There is of course the possibility that the actual mafia kill hit the BPV, but it's much more likely i think that they used the godfather to block the neutral kill. it's just way too good of an opportunity to pass up, with the cop guaranteed to be targeting a scum + the neutral(s) most likely aiming a kill at him. if the watcher was smart enough he probably should've targeted bt too but that info (finding a possible transporter) prob isn't as important.

perhaps i have got my roles mixed up somewhere but i think this makes sense
 
Ok I understand why the mafia would transport B_T but why not to a real villager instead of Cell? They don't need that many villagers to make sure the neutrals go down, or at least it's not immediately clear to me that they would need to start effectively idling kills at this stage.

I also don't understand why we need to pray for crossfire when the town pool is only getting larger and if both the neuts die we have majority over the Mafia. At the very least if the other android dies our town roleblocker could easily have a bead on Broly and we would have control over when those kills stop.

Regardless every mafia role is a problem for us in some fundamental capacity beyond more kills. For instance, it's very realistic that Bulma got roleblocked or the Mr Buu got shot and pretty much every remaining town role doesn't enjoy an RB. It makes a lot of the math slightly easier. It's a good lynch, we just don't need to rush the day when people haven't posted.

There are a lot of possible night explanations for this set of kills and I think between me billy and Jalmont we've laid them all out. No one result is 100% but the relevant people can also scumhunt using their hidden info as a baseline and it's up to them now. I'm going to stop discussing it.
 
Jalmont said:
Twin/rssp/king_/internet/macle are all in the same boat for me in that I just feel "eh". Twin was previously bad for me, but I like him better now. rssp hasn't been very noteworthy and I think he's probably most likely scum, but I don't want to lock that in quite yet.

billy/yeti/dle all good. don't think they are neutral either.

neutral is mithril plus one of the 5 mentioned i mentioned that are in the same boat. twin is a good contender there i feel. otherwise maybe rssp? dunno but that's my fault for not being sure of what he's said so far
Click to expand...
My problem with rssp1 is that he seems to be doing nothing of note.

I kinda feel you're right about yeti/dle, but I'm don't have 6 scum reads, so I'm kinda lost.

I don't think the JOAT should be firing randomly, and it's not a bad idea to keep the shot for lategame. Keeping the mafia numbers artificially high encourages neutrals to shoot mafias rather than villagers. I don't think a shot tonight is a good idea, but it might be necessary the following night.

I think all I'm waiting on today is an Asek post.
 
Blazade said:
Ok I understand why the mafia would transport B_T but why not to a real villager instead of Cell? They don't need that many villagers to make sure the neutrals go down, or at least it's not immediately clear to me that they would need to start effectively idling kills at this stage.

I also don't understand why we need to pray for crossfire when the town pool is only getting larger and if both the neuts die we have majority over the Mafia. At the very least if the other android dies our town roleblocker could easily have a bead on Broly and we would have control over when those kills stop.
Click to expand...

No I'm saying they transported to the godfather most likely, meaning that he soaked up the likely neutral(s) kill(s). then they used their kill to off Flyhn, probably because they thought he was town (altho idk they could've thought he was android too). there's no way to know this for sure ofc without the cop claiming, but i think it is just something to be aware of if people haven't thought about it.

Partly why I think you could still be scum Blazade is because of your insistence to go after neutrals, when it arguably helps the mafia more then the village at this point. Lynching neutrals only puts us in a position to win if we lynch perfectly, which we won't unless people have results.
 
I'm not insistent, I was entertaining the notion that removing 1/3 kills may possibly be a better deal. I am very happy with a BT lynch but we can win many other ways besides crossfire lol and I would prefer not to lose majority anytime soon. Really though I would be sad if we lost discussion time.

I still don't know why mafia moves BT to Cell over a villager and I think it's more likely RB/Protection on Broly. That was my confusion with your statement: how probable you seem to think it is.

More later when I'm not out specifially more reads and actual game content.
 
Blazade said:
I'm not insistent, I was entertaining the notion that removing 1/3 kills may possibly be a better deal. I am very happy with a BT lynch but we can win many other ways besides crossfire lol and I would prefer not to lose majority anytime soon. Really though I would be sad if we lost discussion time.

I still don't know why mafia moves BT to Cell over a villager and I think it's more likely RB/Protection on Broly. That was my confusion with your statement: how probable you seem to think it is.

More later when I'm not out specifially more reads and actual game content.
Click to expand...

But this isn't a deal where we can go, "Yes please I will take lynching the two neutrals in the the next two days now!" Do you have any idea who they are? I certainly don't, at least not compared to my mafia reads. Your stance on this is just confusing to me as a result, as your acting as if lynching a neutral right now is just a given where from my vantage point, it's extremely dangerous.

The mafia obviously does not know any better than we do who the neutrals are, so unless you knew that Flyhn was bad (which would indicate you are the other android), then they didn't "move BT to cell over a villager." Everyone thought Flyhn was definite town, and I would surprised if the mafia had a better idea that us of who Cell is. So they didn't move him to cell over a villager, likely they just thought flyhn was town. It's fair to believe protection happened though. Only the cop should truly have any idea since he's the one whose gotten the result.

This weird logic you have in wanting to remove neutrals without proposing a method of doing so and the fact that you seem hung up on the "mafia moving BT to cell over villager" when it seems fairly obvious to me at least that the mafia probably thought flyhn was just a clean villager. That's certainly what I thought. You being android also lines up with LW being mafia so there's that too I guess.

on another note maybe this is controversial but i personally think that those who have incriminating results should claim.
 
Hey Asek mind dropping in and explaining what happened at the end of yesterday?

I've changed my mind: twin and rssp1 are both probably bad. i thought twin might be good because his language and tone were very village-ish (the inflammatory play style is one that i don't think is usually mafia) but i'm putting him in my bads right now because he really hasn't done all that much except push inactives + king_ for his poor reads list even when he hasn't even tried to attempt anything of the sort. rssp1 has posted a lot but surprisingly hasn't said much about anything (except the setup 9.9). his reads list was basically calling everyone town/no read except for slight scum on haruno. yea that's a bad

Genuinely can't tell if internet/macle/king_ are mafia or not but that's to be expected i suppose. don't want to speculate on what their roles might be but yea theoretically two out of three of them could be bad i guess but i'm not so sure.

i guess at this point i'd peg blazade as android and one of the internet/macle/king_ trio as wolf? then it's lw/rssp1/twin with asek on the side depending on how he responds

i don;t i guess this isn't super relevant but just putting it out there to get ppl to chime in
 
Jalmont you are presuming a whole lot:

1. Billymills said "I can't imagine a situation where there's a better lynch", so I was thinking that IF someone could come forward with ONE neutral then MAYBE that lynch would be better TODAY. I'm not presuming who the neutrals are, I didn't want to lynch both, and I don't want to move the lynch off BT after like 30 seconds of thought on the subject because not having a mafia roleblocker in the game is convenient in it's own way. At the time I also didn't remember that the inspector's hand was forced and that truly incriminating reaults were canishingly unlikely. I really didn't think I had to explain that a flippant hypothetical in response to billymills challenging me to imagine was just that in such detail. Call me crazy, but I didn't intuitively believe that having two 3rd party kills was necessary for our survival and we could get away with just one.

2. You are so hard up on this idea that if cop has an inno result that that person is Cell. Do you not see the problem with this? In order for your scenario to be true:

-Broly cannot be the one to have killed Walrein, because then he would have an extra kill. This is one of the many reasons I think the Roleblocker is more likely to have a successful result than the cop.

-The Mafia would have to be paranoid enough about shooting neutrals (WHICH ACCORDING TO YOU IS IN THEIR BEST INTERESTS TO GET RID OF ANYWAY) in a pool of 3/11 to transport a possible JOAT/Broly kill onto an effective idle over someone who is guaranteed to be not them and might die. There are other strong townreads out there, I can assure you of that. Would they idle their night kill? NO. So why idle an extra kill they just happened to pick up by moving our vig shot?

-Broly decided to shoot Blue Tornado when we're going to lynch him anyway. Broly might do this, but why would he obviously do this? Maybe he thought the JOAT would shoot. Maybe he wanted to shoot the people that suspected him. We'll never know if he was even able to make this decision and JOAT Doc/Mr Buu are in the best position to discren whether they/their target might be targeted by their Broly reads.

When in contrast there are so many scenarios where the cop got moved, got an inno result that didn't die because the JOAT didn't shoot, and Broly either got RBed or protected onto a different target. And GUESS WHAT. When the cop comes out in that scenario we lose our cop and mislynch a town. That is horrifying. I don't think the case where we got Cell this way is close to probable enough that we should be thinking about this. If anyone comes out it's the RB and even that isn't a slam dunk, but an educated decision that they have to make, probably after another night of confirming their suspicions.

The fact that you push such an obviously risky plan because of this ridiculous assumption that your scenario is likely makes me think you could be mafia that knows BT was moved to a villager and wants the cop to come forward with a mislynch. But the golden rule "No one needs to lie about game theory" stays my hand as it always has.

I hope this clarified my stance and that I don't have to shit up the thread with more gamespec to explain myself.
 
Reads:

Town: DLE, Yeti, Mithril, Me, Macle, Lightwolf

Needs sorting: Billymills, Jalmont, King_, thetwinmasters, rssp1

Scummy: internet, BT, Asek

I'm reasonably confident in this townpool pending certain things people could say that would change my more specific reads on them.

thetwinmasters calls the B_T bandwagon scummy and clearly knew that it wasn't going anywhere. On the one hand it's definitely intuitive town wise to be suspicious of that, on the other hand it's also intuitive as scum to not waste a chance to set up a few mislynches and protect your buddy. My gut says this move is worse looking for twin's alignment than not.

Billymills seems to have a consistent view of reality here (a good explanation for his stance change on B_T for instance) and seems to operating under doubts that are reasonable for the timeframe he's speaking in. He's a good player though, and I think his neut game would be very similar to his town game. A contender for the last two town slots but someone I am paranoid about.

King_'s unprompted push on B_T during the middle of Day 2 makes me happy, and I wish I hadn't mucked that up with my abrasiveness. Doesn't seem to have a lot of firm opinions and got picked on by Twin out of nowhere, so I'd say he's in the same place as Billy, a gut contender for the last couple slots without actually giving me strong evidence.

Jalmont has seemed genuine but he's been making some weird assumptions lately. I don't think he gets this aggressive if he's mafia but that gut isn't based on too much. His push on Haruno that he didn't follow up on when Haruno didn't show up is a little worrying, and the distance he has with a few possible scumbuddies would have to be artificially created distance, but Jalmont is absolutely smart enough to be able to do that.

rssp1 has had some good insight and an evenhanded keel, but as more people crawl up the town ladder his attitude and stances make him more and more likely to be Mafia (less so neut). He was willing to buddy me in places where I could be mislynched, but I put rssp1 on buddying me a lot of the time because I think he thinks he can.

The scumpool in internet and Asek I have is because of Process of Elimination mostly, the cases where they're town begin to force stronger reads with stronger connections out of the limelight.

The most Realistic Scumteam IMO is: B_T, rssp1, Twin, internet with neutral reads varying wildly.
 
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