NOC Amnesiac Mafia Game 1 - N2

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there's an off chance rssp1 IS the silencer and it's actually the PT who targeted him and now wrongly thinks they are scum but i'm not sure what the odds of that scenario happening are so it's much more likely whoever targeted rssp1 is silencer.
 
we know that flyhn can't be the silencer, and we know that he can't be the hooker unless yeti is mayor (since if i read correctly mayor wouldn't be notified if they're hooked?)

so flyhn is either godfather or (more likely) town
 
ugh Aska while I agree with you that it seems like a logic puzzle game the problem is that we have to make sure there's enough people who agree with that perspective that we can force everyone to play that way and not let the mafia hide among paranoid villagers. You shouldn't just claim target+result without making sure that we can get everyone to do so or else risk getting lynched.

I'd like to call it for a vote: what do people think everyone ought to claim? Choices are:
Option 1: Claim all targets and results, bar none. Pros of this include that it'll be really, really hard for the mafia to fake claim and the two who don't know they are mafia probably will get caught quickly. Cons will be that the mafia will know all of our roles potentially even before we do, which could be quite bad.
Option 2: Claim only targets and results which indicate someone is mafia. Pros of this include getting good drops on who most roles are and still give us a fair bit of things to hold people to, without publicly revealing as much information or giving away nearly as many villagers. Cons involve Leaving more room for the mafia to skate by and leave some people in the dark
Option 3: Claim nothing except results which indicate someone else is mafia. Honestly I'm not even sure what the pros of this are except that maybe the mafia have a bit less information to work with, I'd like the people who have supported this idea (Blazade jumpluff) to justify it tbh because I don't see any real benefits to it

I vote for option 2 personally. I think that we should all vote on one of these three options and then, if we can get 5 or 6 people to vote for one of the non-option 3 options, we force the dissenters to go with the supermajority at risk of getting lynched.

If there's other good options bring those up as well.

I also think that most public calculation posts like Ditto's above are generally more harmful than helpful
 
anyone who targeted flyhn knows they aren't the hooker (presumably yeti as well since i think if yeti had been hooked she would have said it by now)

anyone who targeted anyone other than rssp1 knows they aren't the silencer

maybe we can start scumhunting now

option 2 seemsgood
 
id like to point out unclesam has STILL never rolled scum in a NOC and surely this trend must end at some point !! he had a 33% chance to be rnged scum this game who's with me
 
Oh I'd also like to point out that Flyhn could be lying about who he targeted, though that's an extremely unlikely scenario

Also what do people think about the possibility of a no lynch? I think I'd prefer to roll the dice and mislynch if need be to get more information out there but there's something to be said for playing this more like C5 and no lynching once or twice and then making a final determination. Personally I think I'd rather mislynch then get an extra night's worth of results but that depends partially on which option we choose to take
 
I say either go all or nothing. There's a chance that with massclaim we can solve the game and if that happens there is nothing that can be done by the mafia to stop a steamroll.

However I'm generally against massclaiming because due to the inherent nature of how actions can fail (mayor target not actually being a target, godfather+vig being indistinguishable, Hook vs OG on failing, Personal trainer shenanigans on just about everything) I can see that a lot of swingy or even TvT 50-50s could rise out of it. Again, one mislynch+informed mafia = a loss. I haven't run extensive calculations on it or anything but that's my intuition.

The problem is I also don't really have another plan. I think it's ambitious to believe we can solve the game enough now but mislynching or no lynching may be just as bad and scumhuntiing is completely ineffective when most of us have no idea who we are. I was hoping people would quitely try to read their target to get an idea of what happened to them but I guess the time for something really interesting to come of that has passed.
 
i disagree with scumhunting being completely ineffective; godfather knows who he is, and at least one person thinks they're the silencer

we can definitely try to weed out 2/9 people if we really want to
 
Fine I'll keep my calculations to myself.

UncleSam said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy
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Not entirely relevant, in the end she did state the correct % that you'd have rolled mafia in this game. So yes, the beginning of her post would support the Gambler's Fallacy, he actual numbers do not.

Also, I'm not quite sure what results we have right now that would constitute helping us find mafia at this point. The only other results would be hooked, which only helps the Hooker know who they are, and the Psychiatrist, which (if village) would help confirm Psychiatrist but also give the Godfather a target.

In terms of lynching, I was toying around with the idea of a mayor test, putting 2 people up against each other. This gives us 2 scenarios.
1. Players tie confirming that neither is Mayor. This is the most likely scenario.
2. Players don't tie, confirming the surviving one is Mayor and lynching someone. This gives us 2 sub-scenarios.
2a. We lynch a member of the Mafia and 6 of us are happy :D (3/8 Chance)
2b. We lynch a member of the Village and 3 of us are happy (5/8 Chance)

Either sub-scenario gives us valuable info, but we would be more likely be lynching a villager.
 
some people quite possibly know they're 100% clean as well now

anyone who targeted flyhn knows they aren't the hooker or silencer since he is talking and successfully targeted me (or if he lied, SOMEONE). they knew from the start they weren't the godfather so they know they aren't scum.

since aska has claimed to have targeted someone, anyone who targeted aska presumably knows they aren't the hooker either since aska is either the mayor or wasn't hooked as he didn't report failure

whoever targeted rssp1 now pretty firmly believes they are the silencer and thus mafia

so it's possible an equivalent number of towns now "know" they are town as mafians know they are scum
 
There is still the possibility that rssp1 isn't silenced. The silencer could have idled or have been hooked. Just because rssp1 hasn't said anything doesn't 100% mean silenced. Although this would likely only happen if rssp1 was hit by Psychiatrist and came up as mafia, or rssp1 just hasn't read the thread yet.
 
Ditto said:
Fine I'll keep my calculations to myself.


Not entirely relevant, in the end she did state the correct % that you'd have rolled mafia in this game. So yes, the beginning of her post would support the Gambler's Fallacy, he actual numbers do not.

Also, I'm not quite sure what results we have right now that would constitute helping us find mafia at this point. The only other results would be hooked, which only helps the Hooker know who they are, and the Psychiatrist, which (if village) would help confirm Psychiatrist but also give the Godfather a target.

In terms of lynching, I was toying around with the idea of a mayor test, putting 2 people up against each other. This gives us 2 scenarios.
1. Players tie confirming that neither is Mayor. This is the most likely scenario.
2. Players don't tie, confirming the surviving one is Mayor and lynching someone. This gives us 2 sub-scenarios.
2a. We lynch a member of the Mafia and 6 of us are happy :D (3/8 Chance)
2b. We lynch a member of the Village and 3 of us are happy (5/8 Chance)

Either sub-scenario gives us valuable info, but we would be more likely be lynching a villager.
Click to expand...

Letting the scum know who the mayor is is a terrible idea in the long run, even with an OG imo.

And Walrein, you bring up a fair point, but even if some mafia know they're mafia they don't know each other, so everyone cares about self preservation and scumhunting through connections makes no sense. Any info sleuthing has to come after massclaim.
 
if rssp1 got a "failed" result and saw nobody else was silenced he could've assumed he is, in fact, the silencer and was hooked or hit og and decided to fake it himself
 
UncleSam said:
Also what do people think about the possibility of a no lynch? I think I'd prefer to roll the dice and mislynch
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Except in this game we don't get very much information from a mislynch, just the cardflip. The "don't no lynch d1" logic usually applying to NOCs comes from the fact that you can use mafia voting patterns later as evidence. Our mafia don't know that they're mafia, apart from obvious godfather Blazade
 
askaninjask said:
Except in this game we don't get very much information from a mislynch, just the cardflip. The "don't no lynch d1" logic usually applying to NOCs comes from the fact that you can use mafia voting patterns later as evidence. Our mafia don't know that they're mafia, apart from obvious godfather Blazade
Click to expand...

Because I disagree with you on claiming? I think I've explained myself more than well enough there.

No lynch in this game is 3/6 -> 3/5 (no godfather crossfire assumed) which is basically LYLO with a decent shot at solving the game with 2 nights of actions.

That is, however, better than 3/6 -> 3/4 + silence which has a real shot of being game over if the mayor got any of lynched, killed, or silenced and the OG just missed.

If we have nothing better I would not be opposed to no lynching today.
 
assumes godfather will have accurately read his babby scums and they will have accurately read the gf and don't try to bus/"mis"lynch each other though.

them not being informed means they could misread their teammates

it's not as sure of a lylo/instant loss since the scum aren't informed of each other
 
Yeah I already said I assumed no crossfire, but the worst case in no lynch is much nicer than the worst case in mislynch.

in better cases things obviously go better anyway lol.
 
Like this is a really swingy game. Mafia can't do anything about a solved game or recover easily from crossfire (in abilities or lynches) and that could potentially happen early, but they win this game by collecting the right info and getting just a little bit of a numbers advantage from the start.
 
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