And what did this thought help you proceed in regards to who you think scum is?
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NOC There's Actually a Sequel to the Matrix - Day 9 (Deadline Tuesday 10 PM EST)
- Thread starter Da Letter El
- Start date
Which lynch do you believe in most today?
Vote whydon
Not really the biggest fan of latest posts
Feels like an expansive poe in their latest wallpost and has constantly shaded me and pidge over the course of the last day to the point that I have no clue what they prefer and why they prefer it, it seemed pretty ambivalent. Have a problem with how waffly they were previously and that anyone can show up at eod and wallpost
Whydon though i do want to intetscy with u if uwrs here, why does pidge look better to you than how sure you were mafia from d3-yesterday?
Not really the biggest fan of latest posts
Feels like an expansive poe in their latest wallpost and has constantly shaded me and pidge over the course of the last day to the point that I have no clue what they prefer and why they prefer it, it seemed pretty ambivalent. Have a problem with how waffly they were previously and that anyone can show up at eod and wallpost
Whydon though i do want to intetscy with u if uwrs here, why does pidge look better to you than how sure you were mafia from d3-yesterday?
If this is Whydons first scumgame I would believe that they would have incentive to fearkill as both OM and texas had them in their poes brfore they died
after some reevaluation i will chalk up my previous Sr on pidge to confbiss because i think their latest post puts in a lot of logical effort and has a solid mindset. My hesitation is that their "dusk or nuxl but not me" last eod and thsir apathetic tone csn seem pretty opptotunistic but it's probably likely that they wouldn't have even bothered to show up at eod as scum and other people are probably seeing things I'm not
viper is probably towntst of these 4 unlrss someone wants to tell me.otjerwise. being a useless sack isn't really indicative since he was arguably fairly low contribution in reinfrocemdtns(town alignment cop) and 2d3(msfia goon). Kinda tilts me towards his reinfrocmddnf play based on his presence thisngame although i do want to see his poe and his belif regarding nka this game vooper
viper is probably towntst of these 4 unlrss someone wants to tell me.otjerwise. being a useless sack isn't really indicative since he was arguably fairly low contribution in reinfrocemdtns(town alignment cop) and 2d3(msfia goon). Kinda tilts me towards his reinfrocmddnf play based on his presence thisngame although i do want to see his poe and his belif regarding nka this game vooper
yes
http://psanon.forumotion.com/t34-game-30-separated-scum town drookez (titus)
http://psanon.forumotion.com/t30p425-game-26-f11 scum drookez (leona)
the two examples in fairly expansive games, plus drookez under pressure in both (although we havent really had that in this game)
honestly i think scum drookez is entirely possible with the way he's posting now but i dont see why he kills om over me, ever.
dead mafia can't communicate with alive ones post-death, right?
remember when we all said we would follow this? yeah me too
I have no preference between pidge and nuxl for a mafia lynch because at this point it doesn't matter anymore, the fact that I'm being scumread because I've been "bouncing back" between the two makes no sense lol. I was more fervent about pidge being mafia based on earlier posts but now I'm less inclined to believe so based on these kills. Both Pidge and Nuxl have been absent for pretty much the majority of the game up until this point.
Can someone dissect this post because I literally have no idea what's happening here? Why are you even lynching me? You fail to provide examples of my "latest posts" that you don't like, and then SR me for shifting between you and Pidge which I fail to see how that can be AI unless I'm dumb? I've stated multiple times that I favor a Pidge or Nuxl lynch, a few days ago I would have said that order doesn't matter since you've both been gone for pretty much the entire game but based on previous kills I prefer Nuxl lynch into Pidge lynch, assuming Nuxl doesn't flip red. I wanted to focus my attention onto other potential deepmoles like Duskfall which is why I laid off the pressure a little bit but my reads have never changed. Also, what does "waffly" mean lol?
I don't see newbie Pidge scum making those kills. That's basically it.
Notice how the two people voting me are the two people I've been pushing a lynch for since D3. Not going to say it's a coincidence but it feels extremely opportunistic on Nuxl's part especially since he's basically never addressed me in this game up until now.
[QUOTE="Pidge, post: 8003099, member: 1282"
whydon: end of day 1 and start of day 2 has some telling information.
https://www.smogon.com/forums/threa...dline-friday-9-00-pm-est.3645013/post-7989511
https://www.smogon.com/forums/threa...dline-friday-9-00-pm-est.3645013/post-7990258
https://www.smogon.com/forums/threa...dline-friday-9-00-pm-est.3645013/post-7989511
https://www.smogon.com/forums/threa...dline-friday-9-00-pm-est.3645013/post-7990333
for the first post, if he was mafia, he would know there is only a cop to target caff. idk what this means, but it's not unbelievable for him to make a post like that as scum, especially if he knew that lynch results would actually make caff look cleaner anyway, or if his voice had like no authority anyway. last 2 links seem like really town posts; like it's hard for scum to make that fourth post? am i seeing this correctly or not? i guess he could just say that shit because caff wasn't under immediate pressure then. also, the second post contradicts the fourth, though. i'd also really like to know his reasoning in switching between me and not me (mainly nuxl) throughout the game. how come this dude has never really pushed me that much? is he mafia trying to save me in the final lynch so he can be like 'ok it's obviously him so let's end this game'.
yeah it's like really hard to pick from these. if i were relying on just myself, it would be lynch whydon then drookez. then viper. then nuxl.
if i had to take into account other people's thoughts, which makes drookez and viper cleaner, while nuxl scummier; it would be an easier choice of nuxl then whydon.[/QUOTE]
This post comes with the mentality that I'm already scum even before my posts have been analyzed. All of the "telling information" that you've provided only supports me being town (according to you) so I fail to see how you reached the conclusion that I'm the proper lynch for today? You're relying on hypothetical scenarios (like me "saving you" for a final lynch) to drive your decision into voting for me and that type of mentality is dangerous at this point in the game. Also, can you explain how the second post contradicts the fourth?
If you're going to say that my EoD posts mean nothing because "mafia can do that", then I guess it's important to look at yours too, which are waaaaayyy easier to be made by a mafia trying to look helpful and are often empty and lacking in substance.
At this is just for recent nights, you have zero posts for any of the other major EoD events (the Rad flip and the FH lynch)
i didn't say i was going to lynch you whydon. i had not fully made up my decision. the "telling information" and posts linked were stuff that i thought was important for myself and anyone else that wanted to analyze you. i was wondering asking for others' opinions on the stuff i mentioned about you and if others thought it was really town, scummy, or neither. also was wanting to see what you would say about it.
Hi guys I think going through all 109 pages will be too much work and not enough reward so Imma just focus on Day 1,2,3 (mafia lynches). The method I will use here is Vote Count Analysis. Time for Wifom Galore!!! (I mean it is basically Vanilla). Will mainly focus on alive people + mafia. Also just to note so people don't bring it up, yes I have not lynched this game iirc. You might say that a VCA then is obviously bias towards other people and not myself. However, if you treat this similar to a readlist, then there is no need to include myself anyways. So here we go:
Things to note before: This post only considers the final vote counts and not the discussion. Therefore, it does not explain the whole story, but it may shade light on certain things.
Alive people:
Drookez Nuxl Pidge rssp1 vooper Whydon
Day 1 Final VC:
3p1k (6): rssp1, nuxl, asek, OM Room, Duskfall98, CaffeineBoost
CaffeineBoost (5): Energy, Texas Cloverleaf, apricity, Whydon, vooper
Former Hope (3): Oddish., Pidge, InfernoDragon,
Whydon (1): 3p1k,
Asek (1): Former Hope
Hopefully the orders here are accurate of the lynches. So let's say here. Everyone alive now, except me, voted for a mafia. rssp1 and nuxl lynched 3P1K early, which might mean that they are not mafia. On the other hand, Whydon and Vooper lynched Caff quite late. However, since they could have easily lynched 3P1K to show towniness, it does make them a bit clearer than Pidge, who lynched FormerHope with 3 votes. This may not be helpful, but note how Former did not vote for a mafia. If that was perhaps discussed in mafia chat, 3P1K lynching Whydon makes Whydon seems town because mafia might not want to add another vote to Caff or Former. Also Vooper was kinda pressured into voting Caff by hal. So from this VC, Town --> Scum
rssp1, nuxl, Whydon, Vooper, Pidge
Day 2 Final VC:
Former Hope (9): asek, duskfall98, Texas Cloverleaf, apricity, OM Room, CaffeineBoost, Pidge, InfernoDragon, Whydon
CaffeineBoost (2): Oddish., Energy
Not Voting: Drookez, nuxl, rssp1, vooper
This vote count to me is very interesting. Nuxl and rssp1, the early voters on 3P1K, did not vote on former. Pidge and Whydon did lynch Former, but it was the 7th and 9th lynch respectively, also notably it was after Caff's lynch. Can't say much about this lynch tbh
Day 3 Final VC:
CaffeineBoost (8): Oddish, Energy, rssp1, pidge, whydon, om room, InfernoDragon, CaffeineBoost
Not Voting: asek, Drookez, duskfall98, nuxl, Texas Cloverleaf, vooper
Again, not sure what to say here. rssp1 takes the lead on the mafia lynch again, while nuxl and vooper remains neutral. This vote does give a slight credit to pidge and whydon though.
Now that we see this, let's discuss how the vote counts look different when it was a townie lynch. Day 4,5,6
Day 4 Final VC:
InfernoDragon (6): Texas Cloverleaf, Whydon, vooper, InfernoDragon, OM Room, nuxl
Duskfall98 (1): rssp1
Pidge did not lynch today, whereas he was lynching every day before. Nuxl finally got back to lynches after day 1, and whydon + vooper were comparatively early to vote than on other days. Rssp1 decided to lynch Duskfall, another town, by himself.
Day 5 Final VC:
Energy (3): rssp1, Texas Cloverleaf, Nuxl
Nuxl (2): Pidge, Whydon
Dusk (1): vooper
Not voting: drookez, duskfall98, energy, om room
Day 6 Final VC:
Duskfall98 (3): Texas Cloverleaf, Vooper, rssp1
Pidge (2): Nuxl, duskfall
Nuxl (1): pidge
Not Voting: Drookez, Whydon
Grouping these together. Pidge stayed on Nuxl, while Whydon didn't vote. Nuxl went on pidge (perhaps in retaliation?), while Vooper maintained the lynch on Dusk with rssp1 joining on.
Okay so that's basically it. I am not claiming this to be perfect in any means (actually it's not, read the note) but i do think it maybe useful. If I have time I would go look at the discussion between these lynches. To sum up,
I think Nuxl is suspicious. He starts off strong with an early scum lynch, but didn't lynch the 2 scum PR and was the last lynch on the two following town lynches. Whydon and Vooper are in a very similar situation, but from these two i think Whydon is more townie for reasons given. I was suspicious of Pidge for his mafia lynches, but read him as townier during town lynches. rssp1 I think is the clear towniest here and I also think that if he is mafia I am not destined to win against him.
So Town --> Scum: rssp1, Whydon, Vooper, Pidge, Nuxl
Things to note before: This post only considers the final vote counts and not the discussion. Therefore, it does not explain the whole story, but it may shade light on certain things.
Alive people:
Drookez Nuxl Pidge rssp1 vooper Whydon
Day 1 Final VC:
3p1k (6): rssp1, nuxl, asek, OM Room, Duskfall98, CaffeineBoost
CaffeineBoost (5): Energy, Texas Cloverleaf, apricity, Whydon, vooper
Former Hope (3): Oddish., Pidge, InfernoDragon,
Whydon (1): 3p1k,
Asek (1): Former Hope
Hopefully the orders here are accurate of the lynches. So let's say here. Everyone alive now, except me, voted for a mafia. rssp1 and nuxl lynched 3P1K early, which might mean that they are not mafia. On the other hand, Whydon and Vooper lynched Caff quite late. However, since they could have easily lynched 3P1K to show towniness, it does make them a bit clearer than Pidge, who lynched FormerHope with 3 votes. This may not be helpful, but note how Former did not vote for a mafia. If that was perhaps discussed in mafia chat, 3P1K lynching Whydon makes Whydon seems town because mafia might not want to add another vote to Caff or Former. Also Vooper was kinda pressured into voting Caff by hal. So from this VC, Town --> Scum
rssp1, nuxl, Whydon, Vooper, Pidge
Day 2 Final VC:
Former Hope (9): asek, duskfall98, Texas Cloverleaf, apricity, OM Room, CaffeineBoost, Pidge, InfernoDragon, Whydon
CaffeineBoost (2): Oddish., Energy
Not Voting: Drookez, nuxl, rssp1, vooper
This vote count to me is very interesting. Nuxl and rssp1, the early voters on 3P1K, did not vote on former. Pidge and Whydon did lynch Former, but it was the 7th and 9th lynch respectively, also notably it was after Caff's lynch. Can't say much about this lynch tbh
Day 3 Final VC:
CaffeineBoost (8): Oddish, Energy, rssp1, pidge, whydon, om room, InfernoDragon, CaffeineBoost
Not Voting: asek, Drookez, duskfall98, nuxl, Texas Cloverleaf, vooper
Again, not sure what to say here. rssp1 takes the lead on the mafia lynch again, while nuxl and vooper remains neutral. This vote does give a slight credit to pidge and whydon though.
Now that we see this, let's discuss how the vote counts look different when it was a townie lynch. Day 4,5,6
Day 4 Final VC:
InfernoDragon (6): Texas Cloverleaf, Whydon, vooper, InfernoDragon, OM Room, nuxl
Duskfall98 (1): rssp1
Pidge did not lynch today, whereas he was lynching every day before. Nuxl finally got back to lynches after day 1, and whydon + vooper were comparatively early to vote than on other days. Rssp1 decided to lynch Duskfall, another town, by himself.
Day 5 Final VC:
Energy (3): rssp1, Texas Cloverleaf, Nuxl
Nuxl (2): Pidge, Whydon
Dusk (1): vooper
Not voting: drookez, duskfall98, energy, om room
Day 6 Final VC:
Duskfall98 (3): Texas Cloverleaf, Vooper, rssp1
Pidge (2): Nuxl, duskfall
Nuxl (1): pidge
Not Voting: Drookez, Whydon
Grouping these together. Pidge stayed on Nuxl, while Whydon didn't vote. Nuxl went on pidge (perhaps in retaliation?), while Vooper maintained the lynch on Dusk with rssp1 joining on.
Okay so that's basically it. I am not claiming this to be perfect in any means (actually it's not, read the note) but i do think it maybe useful. If I have time I would go look at the discussion between these lynches. To sum up,
I think Nuxl is suspicious. He starts off strong with an early scum lynch, but didn't lynch the 2 scum PR and was the last lynch on the two following town lynches. Whydon and Vooper are in a very similar situation, but from these two i think Whydon is more townie for reasons given. I was suspicious of Pidge for his mafia lynches, but read him as townier during town lynches. rssp1 I think is the clear towniest here and I also think that if he is mafia I am not destined to win against him.
So Town --> Scum: rssp1, Whydon, Vooper, Pidge, Nuxl
I don't know what you are saying, but I hope you do give an answer before any of them reply.