NOC Fire and Ice (9-2-2 Multiball) [won by town]

[HeaLnDeaL]

Okie everyone, sorry for the delay.

We have... two bodies to get to.

Body 1

All the players gather around a the dead body of a silver-haired half elf. Her body was charred in fire.

She was:

Rolecard

OM, you are Emilia.

You are an Ice Mafia Goon, along with your partner, ~(illegible text; it looks like the paper was charred)~.

Abilities:
Factional communication: During the night phase you may talk with your partner in your designated scum chat on Smogon. You may also choose to invite me to a discord server/convo to use as a secondary or primary scum chat. Day talk is disabled.
Factional kill: Each night phase, one of you or your partner may perform the factional kill.

Win condition:
You win when the other mafia team is eliminated and you control 50% of the town or nothing can prevent this from occurring.

Body 2

Next to her was... a very big body. His heart and wings were pierced with a giant spire of ice.

He was:

Rolecard

Panic Station , you are Igneel.

You are a Fire Mafia Goon, along with your partner, ~(illegible text; it looks like the paper was shredded by the ice)~.

Abilities:
Factional communication: During the night phase you may talk with your partner in your designated scum chat on Smogon. You may also choose to invite me to a discord server/convo to use as a secondary or primary scum chat. Day talk is disabled.
Factional kill: Each night phase, one of you or your partner may perform the factional kill.

Win condition:
You win when the other mafia team is eliminated and you control 50% of the town or nothing can prevent this from occurring.

Well then, it seems that

Hide

Emilia and Igneel fought each other last night and both died in an intense battle of fire and ice.

Day 2 is now live. Deadline is April 10th at 8PM.

Tagging the alive players:

Tags

CaffeineBoost
Duskfall98
Ampharos
Thunder~BALLZ
Texas Cloverleaf
Fenrir Aesir
WaterLily3
U-Turn Out
Sultan of Skook
shubaka17

 

[realiti]

Excellent

 

[HeaLnDeaL]

Here's our countdown timer: https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20200410T20&p0=263&msg=Day+2+Deadline&font=serif

 

[Sultan]

Alright, time to get to work.

 

[realiti]

duskfall (4): OM, waterlily, panic, fen

town

 

[Sultan]

So I'll go over the Ice guy first since they have far less posts.

So I'll go over the Ice guy first since they have far less posts.

Just got to first votecount and let me tell you you folks are a bunch of kpop stans and I am utterly dissapointed.



April 12th, I just didn't realize game started til shub pinged me bc work (#grocerygangriseup)

Our first interesting post, calls out shubaka as the one responsible for him showing up. I doubt OM would call out a partner like this, so shubaka's probably not an ice guy.

Our first interesting post, calls out shubaka as the one responsible for him showing up. I doubt OM would call out a partner like this, so shubaka's probably

Caffbo is town and y'all are voting him just bc u hate memes

I've played with caffbo meme!scum and he actually tries to hide a lot more behind the memes and other players than he's doing here

Minor defense of Caffeine. Normally wouldn't be to indicative, but given OM's general lack of contributions, I'm inclined to believe that Caffeine isn't ice either.

Page 9 rn

dusk is making a lot of silly filler posts and it's not a town read rn
---------
Page 11/12 rn

Dusk continues to quote other players and react to them with half thought out posts and it's still not a town read
How he's playing rn actually is what I was talking about with scum!caffbo
---------


ping
---------
Am now caught up; Basic lizard brain thoughts:

Panic station's avatar is actually really distracting

Monkey Brain thoughts:

Will Sultan of Skook skate by this game by saying they are eternally catching up and then going to do something else? who knows? find out next time on whenever my brain decides to function again!

Higher Cortex Thoughts:

Duskfall is one of three people mentioned here (besides repeat of Caffeine), and I happen to know that two aren't his partners. Rule of three leaves Dusk as a potential suspect.

Scum Reads:

As already posted - Duskfall seems to be just be lying low and reacting to what other players in the game are posting with half thought out posts or posts that are thought out but completely nonsensical and it doesn't seem town indicative really. Either dudes burnt out on mafia and needs a break, he's scum or both. no inbetweens.

Fen is scum and will be subbed out by day 4.

Heury - Every one of his posts feels like background noise which is bad when he actually seems to be trying to interact and push people. Either he's scum trying to figure out which angle to stick with, super, super low effort town or super new.

NAI reads:

Waterlily3 - more like where is lily 3 haha xd. fsr they seem to still be in early d1 mode and i'm not sure if I like that or not
Ampharos - Their content is good and coming out at a good rate but ngl their tone is giving off weird vibes that I can't get over. This is one of the posts that struck me odd.
SoS - They're posting readlists but those readlists aren't actually giving me much information to go off of outside of basic thoughts on everyone. Kinda want to see him more insistent on pushing waterlily (or really just interacting with everyone more) here because he seems like background noise ngl
U-Turn Out - On one side I want to say both them and dusk are scum together but on the other that's way too fucking obvious and way too early to tell. Otherwise looks to be trying to contribute and seems tonally consistent. Really stuck on this first point here for them though.

Town Reads:

TBZ is town, and he will be subbed out by day 3.

Texas is making me smile and for this he gets a fancy shmancy day 1 pass (where he passes day 1 without a hitch)

Shubaka seems keen to keep day activity up and the content he does post is certainly interesting so far. Most of the read I have on him is tonally basically, but I'd like to see this aforementioned megapost he has in the works first before I give anything hard. I tentatively do write him down as a townlean.

Panic Station: He doesn't seem like background noise but lizard brain keeps looking at his avatar when I try to break down his posts. Most of the stuff he posts seems in-meta (he's KoC right?)

Yes:

CaffeineBoost was originally one of the townie(r/st) players in the game despite the low content, simply due to tone / meta. Last two pages though he seems to be reacting to readsonings posted by other players and trying to lean into them more (maybe so they think he's townier???) and the faux outrage is driving me up the wall. His original merit is still there so I actually feel super flipping flip floppy on the slot rn


Lynch Duskfall98


Side Note: can we not refer to Lol I'm Scum is Lolis it makes me think u guys are talkin bout some weird shit and threw me for a loop or two whilst backreading a bit

Never mind, Dusk isn't Ice. Likely they have their partner in the NAI reads, so Waterlily, Ampharos, and U-Turn merit further investigation. The Fenrir accusation is a bit lowkey, he's another potential suspect. His Caffeine read is a bit weird too, maybe I should look more into that.

I hat eyou

Posted at shubaka, and of note is that the latter has liked many posts by OM (then again, they liked one of mine, so who knows). A bit much for distancing, then again, it's all WIFOM

Whats up scumbuddy

Directed at Caffeine, I doubt post is serious, reinforcing my read on the former

How do I dislike a post

More shubaka nonsense

Current vote count:

heury (2*): caffbo, amy
caffbo (2): tbz, uto
tbz (2): shubaka, panic
duskfall (2): OM, Waterlily
waterlily (1): sultan
panic (1): fen
shubaka(1): waterlily

not voting: dusk, heury

Updated lynchcount based on what happened since last votecount. If mechanics between ps and smogon line up there was no plurshifting done in-between.

This is mainly for my visual reference because sheets are just formatted to maker's brain unless it's multi-user editing blah blah blah

Considering following votecount;



Me n the boys sitting here with a top scum read and refusing to lynch them



Angry, Sad, Wow and Haha just don't match up to the vibe I'm giving to this post

More Duskfall shade

How come that's a pretty tex apropos vibe I haven't played with him much



ebwop

Slight shade on Texas, but rather noncommittal. I wouldn't leave Tex out as a suspect.

Nah there's just nothing to do that forwards the game from my perspective until either dusk plays, tbz plays, or shub returns

I'm not even sure that rule of three applies in multiball, but interesting that this is the first real mention of Thunder (outside of the reads list).

Nah mine has merit

Referring to Duskfall. I think he's the safest non-ice at this point.

I dont want him to get subbed out

Referring to Thunder. If they were concerned about Thunder, surely they would have brought such an issue in the scumchat. Thus, I feel comfortable in saying that Thunder is not Ice.

Narrowed a few suspects down, but still need to do more. I'll look at the ISOs of a few more suspicious users

 

[Sultan]

WaterLily3 has only mentioned OM one time that I'm aware of:

I really wouldn't give Amp a town pass for making a 3 statement case on 1 post at some point in beginning the game and for calling shub and tbz out of blue, pretty sure they are capable for doing that as a scum and I think their involvement in the game seems like actually scum, same probably goes for dusk.

Town to scum list goes something like this:
Panic Station
OM
shubaka
Heury
TBZ
UTO
Caffeine
Fenrir
Texas
Skook
Ampharos
DuskFall98

Vote: DuskFall98

I actually don't know about caffeine tbz and UTO these are from top of my mind
also please meme less and make game more readable kthx

That would be quite high to put a scumpartner. Also of note is that they were both going after the same person, which would be risky for scum to do

Conclusion: I doubt OM and Waterlily are paired

 

[Sultan]

Ampharos only said one thing about OM

i'm caught up now. catchup process was significantly less interesting than i'd thought it'd be.

i wanna call OM town for a preeeeeeetty stupid reason but i'm still calling him town nonetheless.

has anyone seen heury's wolfgame? i get the impression he plays a bit offsite. wondering if he has an activity tell

Nice way of saying someone is town while maintaining plausible deniability. Looking back at OM's read on Ampharos, it was very wishywashy too.

Conclusion: Ampharos and OM are compatible as partners.

 

[Sultan]

Once again, U-Turn Out largely avoided talking about OM

Because Dusk going from top townread to top scumread would be weird.

Scumreads are CB, Fenrir, Heury, Texas.

#306 seems like a pocket attempt from CB, he townread me without much reasoning and pretty much agreed with why I find him scummy only to lower the read on me after I'm inactive and no longer pressuring him. My previous reasoning is still valid. Pretty interesting how everyone is town reading him.

Fenrir and Heury have the same problem of posting and dipping, Heury is usually pretty active so I'm surprised he hasn't posted, especially because he's under pressure. I played 1 scum game with Fenrir and the tone/activity was the same, never saw his town game though.

I went back and couldn't find the post # but Texas got mad at Sultan for something minor which I would expect him to just ignore if he was town, it read like he's threatening Sultan off him. People are town reading him for playing in his new town meta but I don't think we've seen new scum!Texas so can't give him a free townread off that. Aside from that post he's fine but it gave me bad vibes.

I townread Shub TBZ Amy.

Dusk idk but I'm not lynching him today. Kind of weird that he's getting scumread and voted tbh since I assume he has a good reputation, I saw him lurking last night a couple of times but I don't think inactivity is AI for him? Watch OM call us partners.

OM and Sultan walled it up. Don't really have much of a read because I've just been briefly skimming the thread and didn't closely analyze their posts, so I won't vote them up. Same for waterlily and panic station.

Mentioned OM in a group with others and seemingly avoided giving them a read. I find my inclusion in that list interesting, as they mentioned not having analyzed my posts closely, yet is using one of them to justify suspecting Texas. Anyway

Conclusion: U-turn and OM are compatible as partners

 

[Sultan]

Is this intended as a towncore or PoE

The only post of his that is even tangentially related to OM (OM was in the list of users procured by Panic Station). It doesn't tell me anything.

Conclusion: Fenrir is a potential ice by PoE

 

[Sultan]

Although, like Lily Fenrir was also on Duskfall, so there's that to consider. I do think U-Turn and Ampharos look worse anyway.

 

[Sultan]

Texas is the latest entry in the club for users who barely have anything to say about OM

OM WaterLily3 shubaka17 Panic Station find new wagons

Calls out OM's vote, along with a few other users. It is not unreasonable for him to have put a scumpartner here, however this post makes no real judgement about these people aside from their votes.

Conclusion: Texas is a potential Ice by PoE

Now I'll go over Caffeine, Duskfall, Thunder, and shubaka, although I've already largely ruled them out as potential Ice

 

[Sultan]

town: om, amp, probably shub, I had UTO here but idk about him any more
scum: heury, probably fenrir, probably lily, probably tbz, maybe even tex
anybody not listed is null

Has OM listed as firm town, alongside Ampharos. Like with Lily, this is a bit high to put scumpartner.

Town: om, amp, uto
Scum: heury, probably lily, probably fenrir

Everyone else is null but also I'm slightly iffy on Texas... ik his new meta is meant to be super low effort but I also feel that something is off.

Older post with largely the same message

Fair but it was a shit read.

OM seems towny. This doesn't seem like a time where scum would make a wallpost a la me in that one game where I made a shit fake wallpost that effectively painted me red.

I haven't really got much else to say, I'm satisfied enough with where my scumpass is currently pointing. Hopefully things don't go south.

Older post. At least there is a progression here.

Conclusion: I wouldn't say it's impossible, but this does look pretty decent and also keep in mind the points from OM's end. I believe that OM and Caffeine were not partners.

 

[Sultan]

I do not believe Duskfall mentioned OM even once.

Conclusion: Normally would be a suspect by POE but there is enough from OM's end that I can confidently say that I do not believe Duskfall and OM were partners.

 

[Sultan]

Again, Thunder~BALLZ did not mention OM once, in fact he wasn't even around when OM was

Conclusion: See above post

 

[Ampharos]

lmao

 

[Sultan]

Tier 1: Scum Reads
1. CaffeineBoost - has returned to the thread and done really Nothing to remove suspicion and doubt. had a hot fast and heavy interaction with Dusk to try and limit one falling after another like the two dominoes they are, pencil the two of them in as a scum team from me.

I'm not going to begrudge you a read, but i'm going to hit on this read because,,, seriously? idk, strikes me as a mindset when people change from an opinion i agree with that's scummy and when people change to one i agree with that's townie, except with two people who know they need to be friendly. now townreading OM by pointing out a previous game where CB (self) was scum. Yuck.
2.
Panic Station -

the Heury wagon confuses me still, and the focus on a prior game is less than ideal. Asking for links to other games irks me, and i don't think there's a single post of his that rings as Town Scum Hunting. WIFOM says why would a mafia member skyline himself so heavily so early, but i'll trust my gut to say he's >:(

the quickreads he dropped seem to point at, what, me/Amy one maf, OM/Heury other maf? sure i could see me/Amy being a maf, Amy came out the gates and townread me, and I continue to townread her, but at time of this list Amy hadn't even confirmed in thread yet, and OM had (and still has) just confirmation in thread.
3. Duskfall98 - the reason we started talking about LOLIS is because Dusk dropped an LOL I'm Scum statement, and spent the rest of Early D1 trying to defend it and meme around it. now has plenty of riffing with both PS and CB that I can't be surprised if 2/3 flip scum and the third manages to hard carry to lylo.

this is just one example of throwing posts into the wind in an effort to dilute the conversation, and i'm getting the vibe that it's probably half of TBZ, Dusk, and CB's posts.
4. Waterlily3 - meme'd, also LOLIS, but listens to kpop and has Jisen as pfp so i'll lynch her later. I'm confused on your timezone WaterLily3 , you were active for plenty of yesterday, but then haven't posted for nearly 12 hours. Like, you straight up said you're
so where's the activity that would be there on a saturday? lmao received some slight backpush and hasn't reassessed a strategy yet i suppose.
5.Thunder~BALLZ - god i hate your playstyle. I'm probably irrationally over-analyzing your play as scummy bc of it, but then we also have times like

when you haven't voted since RVS. Sure, the vote is on CB, but you provided such BS reasoning that I can't stand by it.

but then the below quote makes me doubt myself, and is why you're outside the top4 and WL is in the top4.

Tier 2: Inactive MFers
6. Texas Cloverleaf - memes and one liners abound. i've only played with TryHard!Texas, but allegedly this is the new Texas. not the worst player i've ever seen (was it Whydon? Flyhn? someone actively disrupted discussion even as villager and it was super aggravating) but not what I was hoping for
7. heuryalone - very little content or volume now that I look back at it. I suppose past-game-meta would allow one to scumread Heury off of this, but it's not enough to convince me. NAI either way, heuryalone git gud.
8. Fenrir Aesir - still super low volume. the post about this being a hype PL still rubs me wrong, but maybe it's just FanBoy!Fen. Defends his own and UTO's low effort this game, possible Idle!Villagers both of them, but if one flips then the other is bound to also. For five posts, provides better reads than most people above him on this list.
Tier 3: Townier than most
9. Sultan of Skook - are you new? i've never seen you before but that doesn't mean ur new, i just don't read this forum as much as i used to. Just put out a decent read list, but could use some substance beyond brief thoughts. 13 brief thoughts in one post is better than 13 posts of it, but try to flesh em out more please.

flesh out your scum reads, you have three inactives as scum, and then one
10. U-Turn Out - still low content, but similar to Fen in that he provides decent content in few posts. Town reading Amy and Amy's town reads is yuck, but maybe game really is just that easy.
11. Ampharos - giving town reads and defending them, which leaves room for improvement. two town reads doesn't make someone scum, but it does deflect heat when it's 2v2v7. if this is scum Amy, then we're in for a long game :/
12. OM - decent analysis from early game considering he AFK'd. no lock yet, but hard town lean in my eyes.
13. Shubaka17 - long posts take literally hours, i think i'm done with those for now. future posts will be limited to correcting people using my wrong pronouns, and lynches.

Wow, OM was high on many people's townlists. The fact that this happened with shubaka as well makes me even more confident in my feelings that Caffeine and Waterlily aren't ice.

In order of scumminess:

1. CaffeineBoost - high activity for a front half, fell off as soon as pressure came on. Might be cooling down because of high volume/low content and current trends are anti-that, but the night day is still young
2. Duskfall98 - the reason we started talking about LOLIS is because Dusk dropped an LOL I'm Scum statement, and spent the rest of Early D1 trying to defend it and meme around it. plenty of interaction with PS, could just be riffing, could be a repertoire to be susp of.
3. Panic Station -
4. Waterlily3 - meme'd, also LOLIS, but listens to kpop and has Jisen as pfp so i'll lynch her later.
5.Thunder~BALLZ
6. Sultan of Skook
7. OM - literally confirmed and AFK'd. OM git gud
8. Fenrir Aesir - confirmed, tagged TBZ, and oneliner'd texas's elucidate comment while also sucking up to Shub/Dusk/Amy. Might just be low effort town.
9. Texas Cloverleaf
10. U-Turn Out - confirmed, two vote posts and asked for elaboration. got that elaboration almost 24 hours ago at this point. U-Turn Out git gud
11. heuryalone - low volume/high content comparatively. doesn't like class clown Panic Station, and seems to be the target of quite a bit of ire. not quite sure where the ire is actually coming from, literally why
12. Ampharos - high volume/high content, making reads that feel In The Box. That's not Inherently wrong, but throwing a vote and Then finding the reasoning feels off. Especially when it's halfway to hammer, and you spent long enough riffing and meme-ing to throw meme votes around first. however, notice that i'm still putting her at like, most townie. I don't like her play style but i don't think it's mafia, i think it's just Bad Town :P
13. Shubaka17 - me, player of pokemon, catcher of poison types, and slayer of Gen 5. my pronouns are they/them u assholes.


I need to go do some errands and should be back in like 40 minutes, but this will get re-posted with everyone and more in Depth stuff

OM liked this post for some reason. I have seem scum who like posts of townies as a form of pocketing/buddying, so maybe that's what's happened here.

Conclusion: Yeah shubaka's unlikely to be partners with OM.

 

[Ampharos]

remind me to stop playing sonic and play this instead at some point

 

[Sultan]

Redder is less likely to be ice, bluer is more likely

Duskfall
shubaka
Caffeine
thunder
Waterlily
Texas
Fenrir
U-Turn Out
Ampharos

 

[Sultan]

Now time to get work started on the fire. This will be a while

 

[Ampharos]

I'm not quoting the post cause I'm on my phone and lazy

but the dumb townread i had on OM was due to him offering a "this person's content is good but their tone is weird" read on me, which is a read I'd only ever received from villagers until now

 

[realiti]

I was hard pushing Caff and OM townread him in #343 there's no way he would do that as my partner without day talk imo

 

[Sultan]

I was hard pushing Caff and OM townread him in #343 there's no way he would do that as my partner without day talk imo

That's not exactly a convincing defense. Of course scumpartners are going to have different "reads"

 

[WaterLily3]

My top towns flipped mafia how about that

 

[CaffeineBoost]