LMAOOOOO its just a rly funny joke genre
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NOC Smogon Mafia Mafia (Won by the Mafia)
- Thread starter imperfectluck
- Start date
Ok so fine I’ll explain it (can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not but even if not then no shot some of the other players get it).that maths is really cool! and I know what it means!
P(Jalmont targets Rostam with Martyr) = probability that Jalmont targets Rostam with Martyr. Blazade believes this is a high chance and I think it is a high chance as well given how obvious the hint was in retrospect.
P(Rostam is assigned the kill | Rostam is Mafia) = probability that Rostam is assigned the kill GIVEN THAT Rostam is mafia. I agree with Blazade that this is also a fairly decent chance given there wasn't a ton of sus on Rostam yesterday and they're not a big name.
Corner cases I assume I don't need to explain, basically odds that Jalmont targeted Rostam randomly without the hint being intentional.
Sum over each possible mafia team without Rostam = just take all other possible options of who could be mafia then multiply by P(The team is mafia) = probability that that team is mafia then multiply by P(That team chooses to kill Jalmont) = probability that team chooses to kill Jalmont.
The tl;dr is take all other options for who is mafia and who would want to kill Jalmont and you get...arguably not much. The rest of the post is saying that the probabilities of various other mafia teams not involving Rostam is going down significantly compared to yesterday because Blazade is clearing more people (I also agree with this), and finally the PoE is tightening meaning there's just not that many feasible options in his head that don't involve Rostam in some way.
Phew got all that?
There is something huge everyone is missing. Go look at the second to last Vote Count.
vote skippergamez
vote skippergamez
second to last vote count from Day 1 i mean
alright this does make sense, doesn't it p much amount to "I think Rostam is above rand scum" just spelled out? (which is cool I like it being spelled out)
Can you either link the post or explain more, I've done enough dumpster diving today and I literally can't rn
You can take it like that, what I'm saying is that there's nuance in this argument, and a lot of knobs you can turn to make the numbers go up and down. The point of spelling it out was to see which knobs people agree and disagree with and to codify my stance on it. There's an intuition to sort of equivocate probabilities when multiple things could technically happen, but I think the mathematically literate way to go about things is to critically examine the factors that make one thing more likely
Sort of, though 'above rand scum' is kind of an understatement. Maybe 'significantly above rand scum', again with the detailed spelling out of why. Also, it is explicitly below 'certain scum'.
I went back and looked and will need you to help me understand
https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Category:Third-party_roles FWIW (have been meaning to reply to this for ages and then kept getting distracted reading 3p roles LOL) the type of thing you're describing really isn't standard or anything. The way you're talking implies you think it is but while ToS has overlap, something like switching between tracking and killing is just not something I've personally seen before. I've very rarely seen "kills every other night instead of every night" but considering your ability I'd expect a 3p with that condition to be able to kill N1, since the whole point of your role is sometimes you won't be able to kill N1 yourself.Tbh, a WW with tracking abilities + killing on even nights doesn't sound unlikely
Outright said I was trying to get skippergamez out, to skippergamez today.
How many times do I need to say I thought the announcement was how my power shows up?
There's too many damn knobs.
I activated it when the wagon was on me. That's why.
these are entirely fair. I think I'm slightly too tired to engage with this on the level it deserves to be right now but I guess this entire thing just feels convenient to me and is also the type of thing that isn't particularly fun to me bc it detracts from the whole solving the game LOL.
doesn't mean you're wrong I just prob won't put my vote on Rostam rn and would prefer to ISO a bit, maybe tomorrow. I would believe that JALMONT probably did use the martyr on Rostam, and I do also think Rostam is a good kill carrier candidate, and ig it makes sense to solve this slot on a mechanical basis, it's just highk unmotivating to me fwr. good on JALMONT for breadcrumbing his target ig but that does just make me foresee a world where Rostam (who's provided p good content so far and is a good newbie) got framed and then we kill him for being in the wrong place at the wrong time lol.
but I guess if anything we're sheeping the top scumread of the only fully confirmed townie so eh
yeah i dont mind voting rostam as a kinda coalition/compromise vote. i think AG is more sus but would leap on a rostam wagon if that seemed more likely to work
Doesnt the tie vote prove AG is scum because his mayor vote didn't proc?
if everyone sends in actions the day starts
neon apparently voted (via announcement) for me
We've been over this. He activated it and it clashed with my real vote, extending the tie