LMAOOOOO its just a rly funny joke genrewhy does it have a wikipedia article LMAO did you make this just so I wouldn't feel left out https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spiders_Georg
LMAOOOOO its just a rly funny joke genrewhy does it have a wikipedia article LMAO did you make this just so I wouldn't feel left out https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spiders_Georg
Ok so fine I’ll explain it (can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not but even if not then no shot some of the other players get it).that maths is really cool! and I know what it means!![]()
alright this does make sense, doesn't it p much amount to "I think Rostam is above rand scum" just spelled out? (which is cool I like it being spelled out)Ok so fine I’ll explain it (can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not but even if not then no shot some of the other players get it).
P(Jalmont targets Rostam with Martyr) = probability that Jalmont targets Rostam with Martyr. Blazade believes this is a high chance and I think it is a high chance as well given how obvious the hint was in retrospect.
P(Rostam is assigned the kill | Rostam is Mafia) = probability that Rostam is assigned the kill GIVEN THAT Rostam is mafia. I agree with Blazade that this is also a fairly decent chance given there wasn't a ton of sus on Rostam yesterday and they're not a big name.
Corner cases I assume I don't need to explain, basically odds that Jalmont targeted Rostam randomly without the hint being intentional.
Sum over each possible mafia team without Rostam = just take all other possible options of who could be mafia then multiply by P(The team is mafia) = probability that that team is mafia then multiply by P(That team chooses to kill Jalmont) = probability that team chooses to kill Jalmont.
The tl;dr is take all other options for who is mafia and who would want to kill Jalmont and you get...arguably not much. The rest of the post is saying that the probabilities of various other mafia teams not involving Rostam is going down significantly compared to yesterday because Blazade is clearing more people (I also agree with this), and finally the PoE is tightening meaning there's just not that many feasible options in his head that don't involve Rostam in some way.
Phew got all that?
There is something huge everyone is missing. Go look at the second to last Vote Count.
vote skippergamez
alright this does make sense, doesn't it p much amount to "I think Rostam is above rand scum" just spelled out? (which is cool I like it being spelled out)
Sort of, though 'above rand scum' is kind of an understatement. Maybe 'significantly above rand scum', again with the detailed spelling out of why. Also, it is explicitly below 'certain scum'.alright this does make sense, doesn't it p much amount to "I think Rostam is above rand scum" just spelled out? (which is cool I like it being spelled out)
I went back and looked and will need you to help me understandThere is something huge everyone is missing. Go look at the second to last Vote Count.
vote skippergamez
If we believe something like TOS-styled Werewolf, It could very well be an unblockable attack on even nights.
Or, if we remain truly faithful, it could be a rampaging attack, killing visitors as well.
https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Category:Third-party_roles FWIW (have been meaning to reply to this for ages and then kept getting distracted reading 3p roles LOL) the type of thing you're describing really isn't standard or anything. The way you're talking implies you think it is but while ToS has overlap, something like switching between tracking and killing is just not something I've personally seen before. I've very rarely seen "kills every other night instead of every night" but considering your ability I'd expect a 3p with that condition to be able to kill N1, since the whole point of your role is sometimes you won't be able to kill N1 yourself.Tbh, a WW with tracking abilities + killing on even nights doesn't sound unlikely
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Outright said I was trying to get skippergamez out, to skippergamez today.- he claims he swapped votes at the last minute to tie things up, which is kinda sus
- he initially hardclaimed announcer and now claims he thought his vote was an announcement which is an insane mistake to make and I don’t buy it for a second
There's too many damn knobs.You can take it like that, what I'm saying is that there's nuance in this argument, and a lot of knobs you can turn to make the numbers go up and down. The point of spelling it out was to see which knobs people agree and disagree with and to codify my stance on it. There's an intuition to sort of equivocate probabilities when multiple things could technically happen, but I think the mathematically literate way to go about things is to critically examine the factors that make one thing more likely
I activated it when the wagon was on me. That's why.Can you think of a single time where a villager just had secret hidden votes they could use on a limited basis. Also why even use one there unless it is to save someone, and why would village AG be desperate to save either pulsar or skipper to the point where he uses a limited-resource extra vote on a day 1 50/50 rand that he didn’t even push much for?
Again, I agree with you I wanna pursue Rostam for now and think that’s the best lead. I just think it’s bizarre how you’re willing to just ignore AG after everything that happened.
You can take it like that, what I'm saying is that there's nuance in this argument, and a lot of knobs you can turn to make the numbers go up and down. The point of spelling it out was to see which knobs people agree and disagree with and to codify my stance on it. There's an intuition to sort of equivocate probabilities when multiple things could technically happen, but I think the mathematically literate way to go about things is to critically examine the factors that make one thing more likely
these are entirely fair. I think I'm slightly too tired to engage with this on the level it deserves to be right now but I guess this entire thing just feels convenient to me and is also the type of thing that isn't particularly fun to me bc it detracts from the whole solving the game LOL.Sort of, though 'above rand scum' is kind of an understatement. Maybe 'significantly above rand scum', again with the detailed spelling out of why. Also, it is explicitly below 'certain scum'.
yeah i dont mind voting rostam as a kinda coalition/compromise vote. i think AG is more sus but would leap on a rostam wagon if that seemed more likely to workthese are entirely fair. I think I'm slightly too tired to engage with this on the level it deserves to be right now but I guess this entire thing just feels convenient to me and is also the type of thing that isn't particularly fun to me bc it detracts from the whole solving the game LOL.
doesn't mean you're wrong I just prob won't put my vote on Rostam rn and would prefer to ISO a bit, maybe tomorrow. I would believe that JALMONT probably did use the martyr on Rostam, and I do also think Rostam is a good kill carrier candidate, and ig it makes sense to solve this slot on a mechanical basis, it's just highk unmotivating to me fwr. good on JALMONT for breadcrumbing his target ig but that does just make me foresee a world where Rostam (who's provided p good content so far and is a good newbie) got framed and then we kill him for being in the wrong place at the wrong time lol.
but I guess if anything we're sheeping the top scumread of the only fully confirmed townie so eh
Doesnt the tie vote prove AG is scum because his mayor vote didn't proc?Unless it did save our tracker in which case it was kinda good for us what do you think pulsar512b
if everyone sends in actions the day startsI thought night ended at 5pm pst
neon apparently voted (via announcement) for meDoesnt the tie vote prove AG is scum because his mayor vote didn't proc?
We've been over this. He activated it and it clashed with my real vote, extending the tieDoesnt the tie vote prove AG is scum because his mayor vote didn't proc?