OU RBY OU Discussion Thread

[THE_CHUNGLER]

So I was cross comparing how RBYPL VI Usage Stats compare to the1760+ Glicko lead stats for RBY this month.
This is what I've got:
RBYPL VI:
+ ---- + ----------------------- + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1 | Jynx 25.93%
| 2 | Starmie 23.61%
| 3 | Alakazam 22.53%
| 4 | Gengar 16.36%

--------Glicko 1760+ Stats:
| 1| Alakazam | 30.90857%
| 2 | Starmie | 24.60772%
| 3 | Jynx | 20.06382%
| 4 | Gengar | 11.51512%
----------+
This is what I learned:
For RBYPL:
Lead Alakazam has -27%
Lead Starmie has -4%
Lead Jynx has +26%
Lead Gengar has +34.2%
-------------+
What this all means is sleeper leads are extremely more common among RBYPL for leading than the 1760+.

Also interesting:
Starmie+Zam are 46% of RBYPL leads
Starmie+Zam are 44% of 1760+ leads
----------+
Jynx+Gar are 44% of RBYPL leads
Jynx+Gar are ONLY 31% of 1760+leads
-----------+
What the above shows is Starmie+Zam kept relatively similar usage rates while sleeper usage rates increased by 30%. So leading sleep is 30% more common in RBYPL compared to even the highest rated ladder games.

Which is sort of proving my theory that leading sleep is the only correct choice.

Since you don’t show the raw # of games for these rbypl usage stats, I wanted to point out a potential outlier in the data here. Rbypl featured 2 best of 35 sets: Sceptross vs Spies and River vs Vileman. When our team was scouting, we thought it was important to isolate the bo35 data, as when you are playing that many games in 1 sitting/accross 1 week, you are likely going to be reusing a lot of the same teams or maybe the same team +1 mon/set changed, etc.
Here is the lead usage from those sets

Vileman vs River:
| 1 | Jynx | 21 | 29.17% | 61.90% |
| 2 | Alakazam | 20 | 27.78% | 35.00% |
| 3 | Starmie | 13 | 18.06% | 53.85% |
| 4 | Gengar | 6 | 8.33% | 50.00% |
| 5 | Chansey | 5 | 6.94% | 80.00% |
| 6 | Jolteon | 4 | 5.56% | 25.00% |
| 7 | Zapdos | 2 | 2.78% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Exeggutor | 1 | 1.39% | 100.00% |

Sceptross vs Spies
| 1 | Jynx | 23 | 34.85% | 60.87% |
| 2 | Starmie | 17 | 25.76% | 52.94% |
| 3 | Gengar | 12 | 18.18% | 33.33% |
| 4 | Alakazam | 8 | 12.12% | 62.50% |
| 5 | Chansey | 4 | 6.06% | 0.00% |
| 6 | Zapdos | 2 | 3.03% | 50.00% |

Jynx at 29 and 34% usage for these bo35s is significantly higher than the overall jynx usage in rbypl and is surely bringing it up a decent bit just by the raw game total. The Gar usage is a lot noisier (8 vs 18%) which makes sense since it’s overall a less common lead. Whether this is relevant is up to interpretation, but I think there’s a reasonable argument that overall rbypl jynx usage was partly due to players in the bo35s happening to use a lot of jynx teams and then reusing the same jynx teams out of laziness/reusing/35 games is A LOT and you obviously won’t prep 35 different teams.

 

[violet river]

Since you don’t show the raw # of games for these rbypl usage stats, I wanted to point out a potential outlier in the data here. Rbypl featured 2 best of 35 sets: Sceptross vs Spies and River vs Vileman. When our team was scouting, we thought it was important to isolate the bo35 data, as when you are playing that many games in 1 sitting/accross 1 week, you are likely going to be reusing a lot of the same teams or maybe the same team +1 mon/set changed, etc.
Here is the lead usage from those sets

Vileman vs River:
| 1 | Jynx | 21 | 29.17% | 61.90% |
| 2 | Alakazam | 20 | 27.78% | 35.00% |
| 3 | Starmie | 13 | 18.06% | 53.85% |
| 4 | Gengar | 6 | 8.33% | 50.00% |
| 5 | Chansey | 5 | 6.94% | 80.00% |
| 6 | Jolteon | 4 | 5.56% | 25.00% |
| 7 | Zapdos | 2 | 2.78% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Exeggutor | 1 | 1.39% | 100.00% |

Sceptross vs Spies
| 1 | Jynx | 23 | 34.85% | 60.87% |
| 2 | Starmie | 17 | 25.76% | 52.94% |
| 3 | Gengar | 12 | 18.18% | 33.33% |
| 4 | Alakazam | 8 | 12.12% | 62.50% |
| 5 | Chansey | 4 | 6.06% | 0.00% |
| 6 | Zapdos | 2 | 3.03% | 50.00% |

Jynx at 29 and 34% usage for these bo35s is significantly higher than the overall jynx usage in rbypl and is surely bringing it up a decent bit just by the raw game total. The Gar usage is a lot noisier (8 vs 18%) which makes sense since it’s overall a less common lead. Whether this is relevant is up to interpretation, but I think there’s a reasonable argument that overall rbypl jynx usage was partly due to players in the bo35s happening to use a lot of jynx teams and then reusing the same jynx teams out of laziness/reusing/35 games is A LOT and you obviously won’t prep 35 different teams.

i noticed around game fifteen that vileman used zero gengars so i used a billion jynxes after then

 

[Sceptross]

Also, to add my own perspective, Jynx is the most versatile lead in what it allows you to do with the rest of the team, so in a bo35 setting you end up bringing it more by virtue of wanting to induce variety.

 

[Eeveeto]

Also, to add my own perspective, Jynx is the most versatile lead in what it allows you to do with the rest of the team, so in a bo35 setting you end up bringing it more by virtue of wanting to induce variety.

Fully agree with this. The 2 Mons the "shitmons" I often try to use most commonly struggle with the most are Gengar and Starmie. By leading Jynx, Gengar pretty often explodes on it, while Starmie is slept. This means that the Omastar (to put an example, it can be another Mon) will have a much easier time on the field, since it doesn't have to deal with Gengar or Starmie anymore (specifically, the 4 best Mons of the tier can be beaten by Omastar with the right moves and without insane levels of support, while Starmie fully walls it). This makes Jynx very attractive lead for unconventional structures.

 

[violet river]

I don't know if sceptross was referring to trying to squeeze more Omastar usage into his bo35s

 

[BW PU AAA TD]

What i find suprising that no one has mentioned yet, is that in tournament play you load stuff thats good into your opponent's scout, rather than the tournament as a whole.

If i have 50% lead gengar and 40% lead starmie, you wouldnt dare lead jynx or gengar into me, and would prefer loading Zam/Mie. If my opponent has 45% Mie, and 35% Jynx, with very low gengar, im leading something like zapdos or jolteon. You should not make calls on what is and isnt near always the correct play based on how EVERYONE plays, rather on how your opponent in specific plays.

Sure the better your opponent is the less likely they are to have these insanely skewed scouts with almost nobody being as skewed as above, and with some players being unscoutable, but thats not at all common and i think ive only ever seen 1 or 2 people like that. Majority of the people you face will have preferences. You play into those. And if you dont bother to scout your opponent because its a low stakes tour you dont care about, why are you even being optimal. Have fun and bring what you want. There is no reason general stats should determine what you bring as a counterteam.

Edit: If your opponent is unscoutable because they have literally no games to scout for this is when you load whatever you want and fundies them.

 

[Leader of the Rockets]

Also, to add my own perspective, Jynx is the most versatile lead in what it allows you to do with the rest of the team, so in a bo35 setting you end up bringing it more by virtue of wanting to induce variety.

Everyone knows Jynx is good. She is so popular. But Jynx is reaaallyy good. Reaaalllly good. When I'm not using her I really miss her. She is probably a bit better than we all think and we already think shes really good. More accurately put, she allows really great team composition. Her biggest strength.

This makes Jynx very attractive lead for unconventional structures.

So we are all learning the same things out there in the field. Nice.

 

[dangerk1d]

What I've been appreciating more about jynx (in lieu of our previous discussions around normal move egg) is how much you have to give up to beat it. I think its floor is probably always going to be limited by the bad matchups it can have, but given that those (gar lead or normal egg) are big concessions that make you worse off into many teams, counterteaming it always feels a little like a gamble.

This is why I've been really liking Jynx Mie Don lately. I remember sceptross saying he thought it was the best overall team into the meta, which seemed crazy to me at the time for how it gets demolished by gar (although usually only 70% of the time, and boom can go very wrong); but if most of the stuff that ruins it is inconsistent and "suboptimal," it's probably still a good team. I'd rather be good into the strong teams than the weak ones and put the onus on them to fish me, it could very well backfire for them if I decide to play something else.

My favorite way to deal with jynx currently is probably sing toss chansey to bully the jynx for my tauros, but that feels a little awkward to fit sometimes too, because you have to fit anti-starmie tech somewhere else (beamlax, bolt mie, zap), which in conjunction with toss chansey usually leaves you worse off against don or zap in some capacity. That may be another case of having to accept the team's bad matchups, but being weak into zap/don feels way worse than being weak to gar or normal egg given how much more common/stronger the former are.

Overall, if rbypl is anything to go off of, I think this spl season is going to have a lot of jynx's, as players seem to be appreciating its talents more and more. Hopefully we see people working on new strategies to crack it open (progress!!!). Given how many jynx teams have backup sleep and/or egg now (making gar lead extremely inconsistent), my money is on normal move egg making a comeback. Perhaps we'll see some tauros lead? In rbypl us haymakers used a lot of jynx + backup sleep to answer opposing jynx, which felt like the most consistent answer; but I'm curious to see what people find next.