It's not about "seeing it coming", every top player knows that normal move Egg exists. It's a matter of opportunity cost playing around it. You say it's effortless to scout it, but is it really? Say that you have a paralyzed Jynx and everything else healthy, your Chansey is clicking Soft-Boiled, Exeggutor comes in. Are you willing to stay and risk Sleep Powder, when you have a safe option instead? Obviously Jynx is the safe move, then ok some of the time you will soulread your opponent and do something else covering Double Edge or double switches, but not often at all (or you will lose to all the times I'm *not* bringing Double-Edge.)
In just this RBYPL:
Code:
+ ---- + ----------------------- + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Pokemon | Use | Usage % | Win % |
+ ---- + ----------------------- + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 4 | [Exeggutor] | 715 | 74.48% | 49.23% |
+ ---- + ----------------------- + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Moves | Use | Usage % | Win % |
+ ---- + ----------------------- + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1 | Psychic | 527 | 73.71% | 49.43% |
| 2 | Sleep Powder | 397 | 55.52% | 51.64% |
| 3 | Explosion | 231 | 32.31% | 55.19% |
| 4 | Stun Spore | 221 | 30.91% | 47.51% |
| 5 | Mega Drain | 66 | 9.23% | 51.52% |
| 6 | Rest | 62 | 8.67% | 46.77% |
| 7 | Hyper Beam | 44 | 6.15% | 63.64% |
| 8 | Double-Edge | 10 | 1.40% | 80.00% |
| 9 | Egg Bomb | 2 | 0.28% | 0.00% |
Why are we playing around these moves with <10% frequency? It's just not worth it risking the game to play around something that just isn't even there most of the time.
I am sure it's different on ladder, we're not playing the exact same metagame. The scouting element is a big deal: if I don't bring any normal move Eggy 90%+ of the time, people are going to see that while researching my games, and they're not going to worsen their odds vs. my teams to cover a move that isn't there. So then it will just hit, even if everyone obviously knows that these moves are theoretically viable.
This is not rare in tournament play, and I think it's part of optimal RBY OU play. There are many moves that are good only because people not only don't play around them, but outright
shouldn't play around them, provided they've scouted you correctly. You can do a similar thing with Counter Chansey for example.
This is a fundamental difference of Ladder play vs. Tournament play. For me it's absolutely obvious that these "bad" moves have a place in the metagame, because if I don't bring them at all, then my opponents will have complete safety with their Jynx, and in turn that will give them an advantage when I bring the "good" moves (because they can just play around those, instead of having to play around everything). In ladder, people still have to respect your "bad" moves, even if you never use them, because they don't know you specifically. So you lose way less by never bringing them.