in the old upl threads we used to have
quite the number of predicts. it would be cool to go back to that.
Devastating Dialgas (5) vs. Defiant Durians (5)
SS: Manaphy vs.
TonyFlygon - though The Flygon is liable to bring some headass meme mon like
charizard or
dawn wings, his recent victory in their
monkey battle demonstrates he has a capacity to get inside manaphy's head, if nothing else. should be an entertaining one.
SS:
SiTuM vs. McSim - SiTuMc? McSiTuM? McDonald's? fuck if i know. mcsim impressed us in tryouts and isn't quite a stranger to [insert subforum here] premier leagues, but situm's great performance in this past seasonal is tough to predict against.
SS: BasedWhat? vs.
Garay oak - this is the most lopsided matchup this week on paper, but an improbable upset would be pretty amusing to watch. i haven't seen garay touch this tier in the last five months, but i also hadn't seen him touch it in the span of time between the ubers winter seasonal and championships last year....and then he made finals of that. it's clear, furthermore, that he's still a dominant player after his great spl run this year. the upset potential here, as far as i see it, lies in a gap in metagame knowledge. if garay was in fact not trying to price fix (dubious) by signing up at the last possible minute and
claiming he'd be totally inactive for almost the whole tour, he'll have very little time to get acquainted with a metagame that's seen two bans since he last played it in a tournament. basedwhat, meanwhile, absolutely nolifes this tier and isn't too bad a player despite his relative newness. although this'll be basedwhat's big ubers team tour debut, the amount of effort i expect him to put in as relative to garay means it's at least possible he can take it.
USM:
HunterStorm vs. GO lucario - although The Flygon has a reputation for becoming allies with all kinds of dangerous people, i don't believe GO lucario is actually an alt. i think we just advertised this upl really fucking well and that led this ladder hero to sign up for a tour they would possibly never have otherwise seen. unfortunately for them, without the supernatural playing skill the alt of a permabanned user would have, they'll be at the mercy of one of the higher-end players in this pool.
ORAS: Trade vs.
obii - not like i've seen either of them play this tier, but obii just has better oras support and should be fairly motivated since he's back on his old team. not expecting a fun game (when is oras ever?), but at least i's not gonna make me want to pull my hair out. hopefully. was it a tactical mistake to start trade over
endill the krauersaut slayer? yeah, probably.
BW: Blim vs. watashi - blim brought scolipede sand with calm mind fightceus?????? insanity. gotta love it.
DPP: BKC vs.
Chill Shadow - does the blazing kevining chicken even like pokemon anymore? though one of the great dpp players of yore, the meta's changed a bit since his much-hated farceus got banned and it's unclear to me if he's even touched the tier in the last six months. i also don't see any clear synergy between him and the rest of his team, which calls into serious question his level of motivation for the tournament. though a disinterested blazechicken is still a fierce player, the fact is that chillshadow is no slouch at this tier and is likely to simply try harder.
ADV:
0kay vs. Triangles - 0kay, despite a penchant for building like he's high on seven different nigerian herbs, had a killer advpl and doesn't seem likely to slow down anytime soon. triangles is an iconic adv ou player, but i can't say i've ever seen him in ubers. 0kay's off-meta craziness seems like just the thing to surprise someone making their adv ubers team tournament debut.
GSC:
vani vs. d0nut - vani convincingly won the most recent gsc ubers tournament and
seems very enthusiastic about the tier. although d0nut is strong in gsc ou, vani's just much hotter in ubers right now and i think that'll propel them to a win.
BO3: Mr.378 vs.
Skysolo - it's very surprising to see mr. numbers in the bo3 slot given that I don't think I've ever seen him play gens 6 and 7 and have only rarely seen him in gen 8. solo, meanwhile, is an undeniable threat in 7 and 8 and certainly viable in 6 too. with even luck, solo probably takes this in 2.
Manly Melmetal (4) vs. DaReal Drizzlers (6)
SS:
Fc vs. Lunala - luna was in all my draft plans and i'm sad that billionaire staxi took her away from me.
she's very capable in ss, as her recent deep seasonal run and ult qualification demonstrate. she should go positive this upl, just not versus fc, who demonstrated last year that he more or less owns this tournament.
SS: Royal1604 vs.
TJ - as long as royal doesn't
bring a calyrex, tj looks favored here. royal's ss has never amazed me, whereas tj, when he's been given room to actually participate in his games, has a nice tendency to make novel plays. he'll need someone to pass him a team, but given that the drizzlers seem to have equally strong ss support as the melmetals, i'll give the edge to the player i enjoy watching more in this tier.
SS: Ballfire vs.
Thiago Nunes - ballfire flopped pretty hard last year and now in week one finds himself facing off against his former team. how the turns table... although ballfire certainly has more ss experience than The Notorious Nunes, the latter proved himself to be a very capable player in a slew of metas last upl and i'd say he's just a bit better overall.
USM:
PurpleGatorade vs. Gondra - gondra's certainly a very strong player, and usm ubers isn't that hard a tier for strong players to pick up. the issue here, though, is that he
does have to pick it up; coming into sm ubers with no experience versus the sole winner of the past 3 upls seems like a recipe for disaster.
ORAS:
fourmi vs. Eternal Spirit - can't say i'm familiar with eternal spirit's oras ubers, but if it's anything like his
oras ou this spl he'll need some serious help. meanwhile fourmi, despite nicknaming his pokemon things like
"masturbate to win" (who would ever say such a scandalous thing..?) is the oras darling of many. he had a great run last upl and doesn't seem like the type to get caught by gama's ±9 million iq plays.
BW: Edgar vs.
Evuelf - although neither of them wows me nowadays as much as they did in their primes, evuelf's much more likely to bring a solid team. in most wanted, when edgar wasn't bringing six year-old squads, he was using
arceus-ice offense. although upl's a bit more prestigious than mw and edgar does have some solid bw support, i'm worried that edgar's (insanity? boredom? creativity?) won't be kept in check enough and evuelf will just bring one of his 50 suicide lead offenses and win.
DPP: Tomahawk vs.
SoulWind - soulwind's a competitor that'll be difficult to bold against for most of this tour, i'll reckon. tomahawk had a strong showing last upl in farceus dpp, and i'd certainly rate his current metagame knowledge higher than soulwind's, but the fact that soulwind both likes this tier and is good at it means he's favored versus most people in the pool. although i do expect tomahawk to put in a lot more effort than soulwind, soulwind's just a much better player in general.
ADV:
64 Squares vs. SuperEpicAmpharos - despite my personal dislike of 64 squares, i will begrudgingly admit that they're pretty good at adv ubers. certainly better than they are at bw. a concern i have is that their adv support is nearly nonexistent, but they've been on a long winning streak lately and it's difficult to bold the lanturn lover over them despite the latter's recent enthusiasm about the tier. no disrespect to Super Epic Ampharos, but why is he starting over heysup?
GSC: Conflict vs.
M Dragon - certainly this week's easiest contender for a highlight game. conflict had a killer showing in gsc ou in spl, but i've never been as impressed with his ubers play. if he's not trolling with muk, he'll certainly give m draggin' a run for his money, but i reckon the latter with staxi support is just nearly too strong to beat.
BO3: Zesty43 vs.
Fardin - i never thought i'd bold fardin of all people over my former upl darling (
now sworn upl enemy), but the fact is that fardin has been on fire lately. he easily grabbed first seed in cycle 1 of ult within a few days and made it all the way to oras cup finals to boot, not to mention his much earlier finalist status in the ss ubers kickoff tournament. although zesty should have it in usm, fardin just seems much sharper right now in the other two...not to mention that his opponent smells like garlic beef jerky (from a gas station).
Dangerous Dracovish (5) vs. Alolan Mukkers (5)
SS: TrueNora vs.
Reje - when evaluating the tier across all dlcs, truenora is pretty uncontroversially the best ss ubers ladderer. unfortunately, though, he's not yet been able to translate that potential into a strong tournament performance outside of this most recent mw. reje, meanwhile, made top 16 of this year's ost, seemingly without even trying. although dracovishes are an easy contender for the best ss core in this tournament, reje is just pretty convincingly a better tournament player than nora.
SS:
Icemaster vs. Alpha Rabbit - i wouldn't say this one is as much of a landslide as it might first seem. icemaster was the dracovish's star player last upl and is a strong contender for the best ss ubers player, but it's very, very unclear to me whether he's had time to keep up with the tier over the last few months and whether he'll have time to give it his all in prep in the first stretch of upl. rabbit certainly has been keeping up with the tier, however; despite registering his alt very late in the game, he nearly qualified for this ult cycle and seems poised to nab a spot in the second one. i know from getting him in most wanted, too, that he has very unconventional ideas. maybe just the thing to surprise the
ceo of smogtours?
SS:
FatFighter2 vs. Maxomega - maxomega is an enthusiastic new player who's doubtless ready to give it his all in his first big ubers team tournament. unfortunate that he's matched week 1 versus a seasonal finalist who took a series off the tournament's winner. although i enjoy rooting for the underdog as much as the next gal, i just don't see a world where Ωméga takes this.
USM:
Holy Ghost vs. InkPupil - holy ghost had an unexpectedly insane performance in this past most wanted, the sort of showing that makes the 13k danger dave paid for him make total sense. though inkpupil is a player that apparently comes with paradise seeker's recommendation, it's a real challenge to predict for someone i haven't seen before except in a couple tryout games. why is terra not starting?
ORAS:
SparksBlade vs. Shocki - as long as shocki doesn't bring any scolipedes, sparksblade is probably fine here. it's unclear to me who on the vishes' lineup he'll tag 10 times a day asking for test games (possibly highlord?), but as long as he gets those tests in he should be adequately prepared. i don't know how often i'll bold him in the future, but it has to be said that sparksblade has occasional flashes of brilliance. he just needs to play more often to make them less occasional.
BW: Carl Murray vs.
Lasen - assuming neutral luck, you'll be wondering why their price tags aren't reversed after this one. carl murray's off-the-wall ideas never really translate into good teams, and the total lack of bw support on the dracovishes tells me it's entirely possible we'll be seeing more air balloon kabutops, scizor, and restalk palkia from the guy before the tour's over. lasen is simply a better builder, not to mention having support from one of the last great bw players in march fires. this'll be either interesting or terrible to catch live; i can't decide which.
DPP:
Highlord vs. Inspirited - i love inspirited and certainly wanted him on the bandits, but his dpp is just not on the same level as highlord's. i can't badmouth him too much cause he's such a sweetheart, but even in a relatively volatile meta like dpp it's just difficult for me to see him taking it.
ADV: Melle2402 vs.
iry -
GSC: Silksong vs.
mc56556 - though silksong is more proven in gsc ou than mc numbers, i liked numbers in tryouts and really came to appreciate his can-do attitude. both players seem to have nothing in the way of support, so i'll give a slight edge to the one i think is more enthusiastic about the tournament.
BO3: Goat Heart ♥ vs.
March Fires - i haven't seen much of goat heart lately, but even if i had it would still be difficult to predict against an oras cup winner who absolutely decimated the bo3 pool last upl. tape has gotta be one of the smartest self-buys of this tournament. but even so, wouldn't it be funny if he flopped this time?
Choice Bandits (1) vs. Delta Rayquazas (0)
JT Yao's Dog vs. All
