Kinda based.
ADV 1vs 1 needs an update in the rankings and sets compendium because zapdos was baned.
I remember playing against your Raikou using Amnesia registeel....and no critical hit in 24 thunderboltsBeen on ladder a bunch today and used this
I don't like adv so just kinda abused broken mechanics and pokemon. Idea is to hit hard and win cm stall wars pretty nicely since people love those fsr. I've tried max spa max speed with hp ice and it has worked alright. Hp fire is also cool for Scizor but I prefer the set above.Raikou @ Scope Lens
Ability: Pressure
EVs: 240 HP / 192 Def / 48 SpA / 28 Spe
Modest Nature
IVs: 2 Atk / 30 SpA
- Calm Mind
- Hidden Power [Grass]
- Thunderbolt
- Rest
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen31v1-1616848478-8279d1kl8ue1n7cxgbfo28b2z01zwgypw
"theres a lot of mons that beat dnite that lost to mew which made that core of two insane... i think when mew is gone it will just be easier for some pokemon to solely focus on dnite without having your teambuilding constricted by mews presence" — Bopher 7/29/22After building the tier all of PL, it feels like these insane previews are caused far more often by Mew than any other pokemon, it enables the hell out of Dnite in a very obnoxious way while being insanely solid by itself.
ratio
Mew is a fascinating Pokemon in SM 1v1 that saw a rise in tournament usage between 2021 and 2022, mostly due to the increased popularity of a few specific movesets. Like many Pokemon in the tier, Mew is fairly ambiguous on team preview. It can be one of several options, all with slightly different metagame coverage. Let's take a look at the best and most meta-defining Mew sets of 2022.
Mew @ Normalium Z
Ability: Synchronize
EVs: 240 HP / 16 SpD / 252 Spe
Timid Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Will-O-Wisp
- Thunder Wave
- Transform
- Seismic Toss
Z-Transform Mew does well against <100 Speed attackers vulnerable to Will-O-Wisp. It can also overcome faster Pokemon by using Thunder Wave followed by Z-Transform, healing back to full and becoming a 400 odd HP version of them. Specifically, this tactic is useful against Dragonite, Mega Gyarados, Landorus-Therian, Mega Mawile, Mega Tyranitar, and physical Sturdy Pokemon.
Normalium Z Mew struggles against Sub Charizard, Magearna, opposing Mew and other Taunt users, Mega Blaziken, Mega Aggron, Slaking, Mega Venusaur, Ferrothorn, Mega Altaria, Magnezone, Magneton, Heatran, Kartana, Genesect, Tapu Fini, Primarina, Victini, Zygarde, Type: Null, Mega Audino, Chansey, Porygon2, Smeargle, Krookodile, Mega Gengar, and anything faster than base 100 carrying Substitute. I'd rate this set A+.
Mew @ Kee Berry
Ability: Synchronize
EVs: 240 HP / 16 Def / 252 Spe
Timid Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Will-O-Wisp
- Taunt
- Soft-Boiled
- Seismic Toss / Amnesia
Kew is Mew's traditional best set, all the way back from ORAS. The combination of Will-O-Wisp, Roost, and Taunt is enough to devastate slow physical non-fires like Dragonite, Mega Gyarados, opposing Mew, Mega Metagross, Zygarde, Landorus-Therian, Mawile-Mega, and physical Sturdy Pokemon. Amnesia is an option over Seismic Toss, notably used by Squirtell 1v1 and Kentari. While this set theoretically covers a good number of special attackers, relying solely on Will-O-Wisp for damage gives opponents 16 turns to crit and makes Mew even more susceptible to Substitute and recovery.
Seismic Toss Kew loses to Charizard, Magearna, Mega Altaria, Naganadel, Kommo-o, Magnezone, Magneton, Heatran, Mega Blaziken, Tapu Lele, Sub SD Kartana, Genesect, Tapu Fini, Primarina, Victini, and Mega Gengar. Amnesia Kew gains odds versus Charizard Y, Naganadel, Magearna, Mega Altaria, Kommo-o, Tapu Lele, Tapu Fini, and Primarina, but loses reliability against Dragonite, Mega Gyarados, Mega Metagross, and Ground-types. It also loses entirely to Fire-types, given that Will-O-Wisp is its only form of damage. I'd rate this set A+.
Mew @ Psychium Z
Ability: Synchronize
EVs: 252 HP / 188 Def / 12 SpD / 56 Spe
Timid Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Reflect
- Seismic Toss
- Soft-Boiled
- Taunt / Light Screen
Z-Reflect (or Z-Screens) Mew rose to popularity thanks to Bopher, Potatochan, and Boat. This set allows Mew to overcome the physical Fire-types unafraid of Will-O-Wisp. Incineroar in particular is lured by this set, expecting to Darkest Lariat through Mew's defenses.
Z-Screens Mew loses to Celesteela, Pheromosa, Mega Pinsir, Zapdos, Chansey, Blissey, Mega Gengar, Genesect, Porygon2, Mega Tyranitar, Kartana, Magnezone, Magneton, Ambipom, Landorus-T, Kommo-o, Mega Venusaur, Ferrothorn, Tapu Bulu, Archeops, Crustle, and Garchomp. I'd rate this set A.
Mew @ Mewnium Z
Ability: Synchronize
EVs: 120 HP / 24 Def / 168 SpA / 196 Spe
Modest Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Psychic
- Icy Wind
- Nasty Plot
- Skill Swap
Present-day Genesis Supernova Mew (used in WCVI) abandons Calm Mind for Nasty Plot and plays around speed control and ability control - extremely important factors in SM 1v1. Icy Wind is also essential versus Garchomp, Zygarde, and Landorus-T.
Icy Genesis Mew loses to Charizard, Victini, Mega Gyarados, Magearna, opposing Mew, Jirachi, Mega Metagross, Tapu Bulu, Tapu Lele, Tapu Fini, Heatran, Registeel, Chansey, Blissey, Krookodile, Tyranitar, and Mega Tyranitar. I'd rate this set high A or low A+.
Mew @ Mewnium Z
Ability: Synchronize
EVs: 96 HP / 88 Def / 168 SpA / 156 Spe
Modest Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Psychic
- Overheat
- Nasty Plot
- Skill Swap / Fake Out
Straight outta 2019, Overheat Mew is an old favorite of many SM ladder players. Fire coverage lets Mew accentuate its Psychic spam with an answer to Steel- and Bug-types. Fake Out improves rolls against Charizard-X and Mega Mawile, or Skill Swap beats all the same Sturdies Fake Out would, plus Zeraora and Torrent Primarina. Though this set has fallen out of favor compared to the stally Mews of today's meta, its theoretical existence prevents several checks like Celesteela and Genesect from being true counters to Mew.
Overheat Genesis Mew loses to Dragonite, Charizard Y, Victini, Mega Gyarados, Garchomp, Zygarde, Landorus-T, Magearna (unless you run CM over Plot), Tapu Fini, Chansey, Blissey, Krookodile, Tyranitar, and Mega Tyranitar. I'd rate this set low A.Mew is countered by Aegislash, Porygon-Z, Meloetta, Mega Gardevoir, Mega Slowbro, Mega Sableye, Serperior, Hoopa-Unbound, Greninja, Volcarona, Blacephalon, Necrozma, Deoxys-Speed, Durant, and Togekiss.
Mew is also countered by a few unconventional move choices: Taunt Whimsicott, Bulldoze Mega Gyarados, Toxic Mega Metagross, Calm Mind + Laser Focus + Shadow Ball PsyZ Alakazam, Mega Alakazam, or other Psychic-types.Mew is checked by Substitute users at or above base 100 speed: Charizard, Victini, Mega Metagross, Jirachi, Zapdos, Mega Pinsir, Ambipom, Latios, Raikou, Infernape, etc.
The Steel-types Celesteela, Kartana, Magnezone, Magneton, and Genesect all beat Mew unless it's carrying Fire coverage (Mewnium Z Overheat with appropriate speed and bulk). Manaphy, Carracosta, Mega Pinsir, Mega Gengar, and Zapdos beat Mew except for bulky Genesis Supernova.
Incineroar and Victini beat Mew except for bulky Z-Reflect. Zeraora and Clefable beat Mew lacking Skill Swap. Stall Pokemon like Chansey, Blissey, Registeel, and standard Whimsicott beat any Mew not running Taunt.
These Mew sets look pretty cool but drop an alarming number of important matchups.
Mew @ Groundium Z
Ability: Synchronize
EVs: 252 Atk / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Jolly Nature
- Bulk Up
- Rock Tomb
- Earthquake
- Taunt
Used during PLV and chosen for a decent Zeraora and Charizard matchup, Z-EQ Mew loses to Primarina, Tapu Fini, Genesect, Porygon2, Mega Tyranitar, Mega Mawile, Magnezone, Magneton, Mega Audino, Type: Null, Gyarados, Mega Gyarados, Tapu Lele, Zygarde, Landorus-T, Garchomp, Incineroar, Mega Lopunny, Kommo-o, Mega Altaria, Ferrothorn, Archeops, Slaking, and physical Sturdies (Crustle, Donphan, Aggron/Mega Aggron). If your goal is to cover Zeraora and Charizard X with Mew, Modest Skill Swap Genesis Supernova is a better choice. I'd rate this set B-.
Mew @ Electrium Z
Ability: Synchronize
EVs: 248 HP / 4 Def / 188 SpD / 68 Spe
Calm Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Thunder Wave
- Soft-Boiled
- Taunt
- Seismic Toss
Credit to Bopher for this set. Beats a handful of special attackers but loses to Dragonite, Garchomp, Mega Metagross, Mega Mawile, Mega Lopunny, Mega Venusaur, Kommo-o, Slaking, Archeops, Tapu Bulu, Ferrothorn, Mega Blaziken, Donphan, CB Aggron, Crustle, Smeargle, and many other physical attackers. This set struggles to reliably beat Greninja since it has so many chances to Dark Pulse flinch or crit through Z-Twave's +1 SpDef, in addition to counterplay with Sub+Haze. I'd rate this set low B-.
Mew @ Life Orb
Ability: Synchronize
EVs: 4 HP / 156 Atk / 96 Def / 252 Spe
Jolly Nature
- Fake Out
- Gunk Shot
- Flare Blitz / Rock Tomb
- Ice Punch / Earthquake
Credit again to Bopher for this set. A frequent pop-up in the "coverage" argument, Life Orb Mew covers a few checks while losing a ton of other matchups. Life Orb Mew can tech Tapu Bulu and Tapu Fini (but not Primarina or Tapu Lele) with Gunk Shot, it can surprise Genesect and Ferrothorn with Flare Blitz or Overheat, pop Sturdies with Fake Out plus appropriate coverage, and nail the 4x Ice weaks Zygarde, Garchomp, and Landorus-T with Ice Punch or Ice Beam. Using Rock Tomb and Earthquake, Life Orb Mew can beat Charizard if it wins the speed tie, but that means giving up two of Poison, Fire, or Ice coverage.
Life Orb Mew does however drop many important matchups: Mega Mawile, Magearna, Mega Metagross, Gyarados, Mega Gyarados, Tapu Lele, Mega Altaria, Naganadel, Jirachi, and stall Pokemon like Mega Venusaur, Registeel, Type: Null, and Mega Audino. It's an amusing if sometimes unreliable lure set, often relying on speed ties or low accuracy coverage. I would rate this set B.There are other sets to be theorized, but each new wacky set will lose more matchups than it gains. If you're trying to build serious teams with or against Mew, you should be considering Z-Transform, Kee Berry, Psychium Z Reflect, and Genesis Supernova. These sets will do a better job in battle 99% of the time compared to Mew's unsets.
Mew @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Synchronize
EVs: 8 HP / 252 Atk / 184 SpD / 64 Spe
Adamant Nature
- Superpower
- Outrage
- Rock Slide
- Leech Life
Scarf Mew is interesting because of its unique matchup spread. Superpower one-shots Greninja, Outrage and Rock Slide deal with Charizard forms, while Leech Life can be used against Serperior and opposing Psychic types. This Mew drops the most matchups a Mew would expect to win: Dragonite, Gyarados, Mega Gyarados, Mega Metagross, Zeraora, Zygarde, Landorus-T, Mega Mawile, Primarina, Tapu Fini, Mega Altaria, Mega Venusaur, physical Sturdies, Fighting- and Poison-types. Special Mew is sometimes chosen instead for its Psychic / Ice Beam / Overheat combo, but it has a similar number of forfeited matchups.
Choice Scarf Mew does lure a handful of counters, making it a somewhat viable matchup fish against the right opponent. I'd rate this set B- (though my WC teammates would likely rate it lower).In PLV, Mew:torterrax vs gorilaa
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen71v1-1509664037
Icy Wind Genesis Mew beats Garchomp
Lancer vs Squirtell
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen71v1-1514617977
Mew loses to Buginium Z Pheromosa
Rumia vs torterrax
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen71v1-1514837189
Light Screen Mew beats non-eball Manaphy
XSC vs Edgar
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen71v1-1513981005
Z-Earthquake Mew beats Rhyperior
XSC vs Squirtell
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen71v1-1529398358
Z-Earthquake Sucker Mew beats Rhyperior
(Any Mew would beat Rhyperior but these were funny to watch)
Bopher vs Tol
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen71v1-1512674704
Groundium Z Mew beats non-AB Heatran
STABLE vs Rosa
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen71v1-1514518766
Z-Reflect Mew without Taunt loses to Rest Zygarde
TSC vs LBDC
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen71v1-1514498787-vj73udp8pzq5qs7c72oi1piigtb2e7gpw
Toxic Mew without Taunt loses to Rest Zygarde
XSC vs Boat
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen71v1-1524945900-m72d2ps4ehij1x4akuq0nik2iwhhbtdpw
Z-Gunk Shot Mew beats Serperior
Funniest match I've seen in years. Serp carries Sub for a reason.
AOPSuser vs TSC
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen71v1-1524884013
Genesis Supernova Mew without Icy Wind loses to Z-Fly Landorus
Denis vs Edgar
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen71v1-1529990242
Amnesia Kew beats Mega Diancie
Rumia vs Edgar
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen71v1-1534955386
Genesis Mew beats SD Tapu Bulu
Squirtell vs LBDC
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen71v1-1534111016-lwv269epybj2obct8sqghzzvca7sg2mpw
Choice Scarf Ice Beam Mew loses to Sucker Golem
Boat vs ToastedBunzzz
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen71v1-1534516157-8qvnqszj8tpngbftd3nxrwjv2d1gg7ypw
Plot Genesis Mew loses to Blue Flare Victini
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen71v1-1534518422-ygcymug9vz0stkpmriviyj84qtpohu5pw
Z-Reflect Mew beats Incineroar
XSC vs Denis
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen71v1-1534308248
Rockium Z Sucker Mew beats Scarf Dark Pulse Porygon-Z
Potatochan vs Jamez
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen71v1-1535590027
Z-Earthquake Mew beats Z-Cel Victini
Boat vs TSC
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen71v1-1549649304-metsfq29e7zgyuiga2i6hprmmdl0hvjpw
Z-Earthquake Mew loses to Serperior
XSC vs Edgar
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen71v1-1549920931
CM Mew loses to Laser Focus Meloetta
Bopher vs LBDC
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen71v1-1559566647-zhqes8jgv3b0m69qmcyxghhnboj8ep0pw
Z-Reflect Toss Mew beats Mega Mawile
Won 8 matches it was supposed to win based on chosen Pokemon.
Lost 6 matches it was supposed to lose based on chosen Pokemon.
Flipped 4 matches it should have lost into a win with a niche set (Poisonium Z, Groundium Z, and Z-Reflect Toss).
Flipped 2 matches it should have won into losses due to using the wrong niche set (against Landorus-T and Golem).
This was a good tour for Mew, and a big reason for the "broken mew" opinions of the last few months. XSTATIC COLD's unique offensive Z-Move choices plus the rise of Z-Earthquake and Z-Reflect Mew all contributed to an idea of an overpowering metagame threat. The stats point to Mew being viable, but even at its peak of usage and alternate set abuse, Mew was always a few steps behind the big dragons of the metagame. A respectable choice with a good winrate, but not really broken.In WCVI, Mew:Baleblaze vs Kentari
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen71v1-1604657877-g4h6wmdksh9fx0un2nke5apl27uw5uzpw
Z-Reflect Mew loses to Laser Focus Gigalith
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen71v1-1604659701-48dydb8outgyovqrmnl1b6n1taou6rupw
Z-Reflect Mew beats Choice Band Aggron
Bopher vs Kentari
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen71v1-1604334903
Taunt Toss Z-Transform Mew beats non-Taunt Z-Transform Mew
(Z-Transform instead of Thunder Wave might have flipped this, but Kentari forgot the full heal goes off regardless of the move failing against a Transformed opponent.)
Elo Bandit vs Tol
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen71v1-1604163038
Genesis Supernova Mew beats Waterium Tapu Fini
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen71v1-1617254774
Genesis Supernova Mew loses to Tapunium Z Tapu Fini
TSC vs Tol
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen71v1-1600453531
Scarf Zen Headbutt Mew loses to Bulk Up Buzzwole
bea vs XSC
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen71v1-1603580832
Earthquake Mew beats Zeraora
XSC vs mishimono
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen71v1-1609577257-cuqwg0rzcnx8wrn6n3xxyv3qq4kst9mpw
Kee Mew beats Mega Mawile
crying vs crucify
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen71v1-1602231892-chx8nfuzf0jqpm6kwasc8ieu37wnqnepw
Amnesia Kew loses to Laser Focus Meloetta
Squirtell vs LRXC
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen71v1-1622984411
Nasty Plot Genesis Supernova Mew beats Encore Togekiss
Elo Bandit vs Dez
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen71v1-637094
Reflect Z-Transform Mew beats Facade Mega Altaria
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen71v1-637103
Modest Genesis Mew beats Charizard X
Landon vs Tol
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen71v1-1620354247
Scarf Mew beats Band Archeops
Tol used the same Choice Scarf weak team over and over against multiple opponents. Any special Scarf (not just Mew) rolls over that composition, and a more standard Mew would be better against any other team. This match is not evidence that Scarf Mew is overpowered, merely that it can check one specific team archetype (fast and frail) if it knows the exact Pokemon it needs to hit.
Won 7 matches it was supposed to win based on chosen Pokemon.
Lost 4 matches it was supposed to lose based on chosen Pokemon.
Flipped 1 match it should have lost into a win.
Flipped 1 match it should have won into a loss.
Mew's good winrate in this tour was due to people picking it in the correct matchups, not overturning matchups it should have been losing. This indicates that Mew is currently viable, but not broken. People have adapted to its newer sets and we're now seeing a return to the higher viability defensive Mews over the lower viability offensive fishing Mews.Does Mew deserve to be banned from SM 1v1?"theres a lot of mons that beat dnite that lost to mew which made that core of two insane... i think when mew is gone it will just be easier for some pokemon to solely focus on dnite without having your teambuilding constricted by mews presence" — Bopher 7/29/22
I rarely see arguments aimed at pairs of Pokemon in 1v1. No one complains about the difficulty of beating all Charizard plus Greninja sets with one Pokemon, because we generally accept that each individual Pokemon has its own set of checks and counters.
Given that, I looked through my builder to find teams with both Mew and Dragonite:
Z-Transform Mew + Z-Fly Dragonite x3
Kee Toss Mew + Choice Band Dragonite x2
Genesis Overheat Mew + Z-Fly Dragonite x1
Z-Reflect Mew + Z-Outrage Dragonite x1
Instead of enabling Dragonite to run what it wants, Mew typically requires specific Dragonite sets with hard-hitting physical Flying or Dragon STABs. Even when the Dragonite and Mew sets complement each other, the core still struggles with Mega Slowbro, Clefable, Mega Gardevoir, Mega Sableye, Togekiss, Substitute Charizard, Substitute Mega Metagross, Bulldoze Mega Gyarados, Substitute Z-Blizzard Greninja, Necrozma, Deoxys-Speed, Z-Glaciate Victini, Substitute Ice Punch Jirachi, and other Psychic-types.
Mew counters Dragonite (with the exception of Z-Dragon Dance overcoming some Icy Wind Mewnium Z sets), dampening its power in the metagame rather than increasing it.Paraphrasing: "Dragonite is broken and we need to ban Mew so that Dragonite becomes more broken and easier to ban."
This seems like faulty reasoning. Attempting to intentionally unbalance a metagame by banning one Pokemon's counters until it becomes broken is not consistent with Smogon's tiering philosophy.
No. Mew does not have any single incredible set that warps the meta or forces extreme levels of counterplay. Mew has sufficient checks and counters, and every alternate Mew set comes with heavy opportunity cost. A team built to tackle Mew's main sets will naturally cover its unsets as well. Having three A+ movesets and a plethora of successively worse B-ish sets does not make this Pokemon broken.
Mew has good set diversity leading to some ambiguity on team preview, but this alone is not enough to justify a ban.
This man is not permitting this shit to slide for any longer.I’m not gonna let this shit slide anymore
BAN DYNAMIC PUNCH FROM ADV 1v1
The move is simply uncompetitive.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen31v1-1633097178
Take this replay for example, my odds of winning this mu is 25% I miss the first one but land the second, it is turns into a literal coinflip and I win the coinflip. I was supposed to lose this yet I didn’t somehow. Dpunch is 50% accurate with hitting yourself in confusion is also 50%, leading to 25% to hit yourself with additional damage, in 1v1 this can make or break a game. This shit is worse than king’s rock (which is banned btw) Like what deddd mans said, it turns mus in your favor and turns them upside down, and don’t give me that bullshit of “metagross can beat Blissey with DPunch” ive literally missed EIGHT dynamic punches in a row and lost the game one time. Making the inconsistency of this move also effect the opposite side of the spectrum. I am advocating for a dynamic punch ban please.
The adv council has talked a bit about dynamic punch and we don't currently have a verdict as we're waiting for more people to talk about this to see what the adv playerbase is leaning toward. This post in no way represents what the council thinks, and is just my two cents on the situation(is it ten cents? whatever it doesn't matter).
First of all, smb's math while it might be true for this particular replay, really doesn't represent their real chance of winning in that battle. Here's a short explanation on why the odds of winning that battle was actually in their favor rather than XSC's.
Tldr; Supermemebroz had a 56.25% chance of winning the battle, and they just happened to get the coin flip to win the battle.So in the battle there's four possible scenarios. Either jirachi hits two dynamic punches in a row, misses the first and hits the second, hits the first and misses the second, or misses both in a row. Each of these scenarios have an equally likely chance of happening, so we can calculate the chance to win in each scenario and average them all out.
Scenario 1: (hit+hit)
Hitting two dynamic punches in a row will always win, plain and simple. 100% win chance.
Scenario 2: (hit+miss)
Hitting the first dynamic punch guarantees confusion, and from the replay we can see a dynamic punch hit into a confusion self-hit will kill. Ursaring can hit itself in confusion either on turn 1 or turn 2, and has a 50% chance on either turn. We only need ursaring to hit itself once in two turns, and so jirachi has a 75% chance to win in this scenario.
Scenario 3: (miss+hit)
This is what happened in the replay, jirachi hits on the second turn and confuses ursaring. Ursaring can either hit itself and lose or hit jirachi and win, which gives jirachi a 50% chance to win in this scenario.
Scenario 4: (miss+miss)
Ooh, bad luck. Sorry you have a 0% chance to win if this happens.
Averaging the chance of winning in each scenario, we get (100+75+50+0)/4 which is equal to 225/4, which is equal to a 56.25% chance of jirachi winning. Jirachi and ursaring can both crit so crit chances even out and I decided to ignore them.
Now even with the math laid out, many people may object to such a "luck oriented" move being included in the tier, which I can completely understand. Losing to a miss or to hitting yourself in confusion is never fun, and you might feel like you got robbed of a battle. However, I consider luck to be so integral to the tier of adv 1v1 that in the grand scheme of everything this is nothing short of a normal battle. For example at some point I considered aerodactyl to have a decent chance of beating zapdos, since you can either win by critting or by flinching a rock slide; despite the fact that zapdos lives a rock slide and should always be beating aerodactyl in a perfect world. Luck can neither be prepared for or avoided, and every battle in adv is somewhat affected by luck. SuperMemeBroz says that they've won by getting lucky with dynamic punch, and that they've lost by missing with dynamic punch, listing both of these things as reasons why dynamic punch is broken. I disagree, as I think that the good and bad luck someone experiences with dynamic punch will even out, and have no real effect on the tier. I can freeze you with ice beam, you can freeze me with ice beam, and at the end of the day none of us get a real advantage from this fact.
Dynamic punch does also have real uses outside of "cheesing matchups". Dynamic punch serves as a sure and reliable way for metagross to beat blissey, since metagross can miss dynamic punch as many times as it wants and can click dynamic punch until it lands and ohkos the blissey.
Finally I just want to try to reason why we've chosen to ban bright powder/kings rock and not dynamic punch as of today. This comes down to really two main reasons, the first being a lack of precedent(thanks to hungryfoodies for helping me remember the word cause I forgot it). No other tier has banned dynamic punch yet, dpp getting the closest by banning machamp for abusing no guard dynamic punch. Alternatively, every 1v1 tier(that I know of) has banned bright powder/kings rock, and adv only got the idea to ban these items after other tiers did it first. I think the reason no other tier has banned dynamic punch yet is the same reason adv hasn't, and is a pretty good case for keeping the move in the tier.
The second reason why dynamic punch and these luck items are different is a combination of how much they add to the tier, how much counterplay exists, and the opportunity cost of running it. Bright powder and kings rock add nothing of substance to the tier, and have really no counterplay aside from kings rock losing to faster pokemon that can't get flinched. Bright powder and kings rock also have little opportunity cost, as the only thing you're missing out on by running it is another item and adv has a small list of viable items, especially for special attackers. These 3 factors make banning bright powder/kings rock a no brainer. Dynamic punch, however, gives fighting coverage to certain pokemon, can decide the fate of matchups without involving luck(metagross vs blissey), and is a strong move in and of itself. Dynamic punch's possible counterplay includes killing the dynamic punch user before it gets a hit off, or just straight up using a pokemon that doesn't mind the confusion. All special attackers will run 0 attack IVs to reduce the damage that confusion can do to them, and stall type pokemon like vaporeon don't care about metagross or jirachi clicking dynamic punch cause its less reliable than other moves they have and the confusion will likely never decide a matchup like metagross vs vaporeon. Finally, running and clicking dynamic punch comes with a fairly large opportunity cost, cause running dynamic punch just means a move slot you possibly wasted for little return on investment.
Well that's it. I wrote a lot so you don't have to read everything I said but I'd love it if you did. Please feel free to respond to my post with your own thoughts on the matter, at the end of the day I'm just one person who didn't even qualify for adv lt and I definitely don't know everything there is to know about adv 1v1. The council is talking and I'm sure if enough people want dynamic punch gone it will be banned, I just want to offer up a counter argument for keeping dynamic punch in the tier. Thanks for (maybe) reading, and I'll talk to you later.
Hate to be pedantic but the crit chances technically should be taken into account. 25% of the time jirachi is not given a chance to crit (it misses twice). There is also the chance that jirachi hits and crits turn 1 (1/24) and in this situation ursaring does not get a chance to crit. There is then the last but least likely chance for a crit where jirachi misses turn 1, then doesn’t get crit and then crits turn 2 (happens a very significant 1.84ish% of the time). The probability goes both sides slightly favouring ursaring in general but I’m in Italy rn so not gonna do a proper calculation.The adv council has talked a bit about dynamic punch and we don't currently have a verdict as we're waiting for more people to talk about this to see what the adv playerbase is leaning toward. This post in no way represents what the council thinks, and is just my two cents on the situation(is it ten cents? whatever it doesn't matter).
First of all, smb's math while it might be true for this particular replay, really doesn't represent their real chance of winning in that battle. Here's a short explanation on why the odds of winning that battle was actually in their favor rather than XSC's.
Tldr; Supermemebroz had a 56.25% chance of winning the battle, and they just happened to get the coin flip to win the battle.So in the battle there's four possible scenarios. Either jirachi hits two dynamic punches in a row, misses the first and hits the second, hits the first and misses the second, or misses both in a row. Each of these scenarios have an equally likely chance of happening, so we can calculate the chance to win in each scenario and average them all out.
Scenario 1: (hit+hit)
Hitting two dynamic punches in a row will always win, plain and simple. 100% win chance.
Scenario 2: (hit+miss)
Hitting the first dynamic punch guarantees confusion, and from the replay we can see a dynamic punch hit into a confusion self-hit will kill. Ursaring can hit itself in confusion either on turn 1 or turn 2, and has a 50% chance on either turn. We only need ursaring to hit itself once in two turns, and so jirachi has a 75% chance to win in this scenario.
Scenario 3: (miss+hit)
This is what happened in the replay, jirachi hits on the second turn and confuses ursaring. Ursaring can either hit itself and lose or hit jirachi and win, which gives jirachi a 50% chance to win in this scenario.
Scenario 4: (miss+miss)
Ooh, bad luck. Sorry you have a 0% chance to win if this happens.
Averaging the chance of winning in each scenario, we get (100+75+50+0)/4 which is equal to 225/4, which is equal to a 56.25% chance of jirachi winning. Jirachi and ursaring can both crit so crit chances even out and I decided to ignore them.
Now even with the math laid out, many people may object to such a "luck oriented" move being included in the tier, which I can completely understand. Losing to a miss or to hitting yourself in confusion is never fun, and you might feel like you got robbed of a battle. However, I consider luck to be so integral to the tier of adv 1v1 that in the grand scheme of everything this is nothing short of a normal battle. For example at some point I considered aerodactyl to have a decent chance of beating zapdos, since you can either win by critting or by flinching a rock slide; despite the fact that zapdos lives a rock slide and should always be beating aerodactyl in a perfect world. Luck can neither be prepared for or avoided, and every battle in adv is somewhat affected by luck. SuperMemeBroz says that they've won by getting lucky with dynamic punch, and that they've lost by missing with dynamic punch, listing both of these things as reasons why dynamic punch is broken. I disagree, as I think that the good and bad luck someone experiences with dynamic punch will even out, and have no real effect on the tier. I can freeze you with ice beam, you can freeze me with ice beam, and at the end of the day none of us get a real advantage from this fact.
Dynamic punch does also have real uses outside of "cheesing matchups". Dynamic punch serves as a sure and reliable way for metagross to beat blissey, since metagross can miss dynamic punch as many times as it wants and can click dynamic punch until it lands and ohkos the blissey.
Finally I just want to try to reason why we've chosen to ban bright powder/kings rock and not dynamic punch as of today. This comes down to really two main reasons, the first being a lack of precedent(thanks to hungryfoodies for helping me remember the word cause I forgot it). No other tier has banned dynamic punch yet, dpp getting the closest by banning machamp for abusing no guard dynamic punch. Alternatively, every 1v1 tier(that I know of) has banned bright powder/kings rock, and adv only got the idea to ban these items after other tiers did it first. I think the reason no other tier has banned dynamic punch yet is the same reason adv hasn't, and is a pretty good case for keeping the move in the tier.
The second reason why dynamic punch and these luck items are different is a combination of how much they add to the tier, how much counterplay exists, and the opportunity cost of running it. Bright powder and kings rock add nothing of substance to the tier, and have really no counterplay aside from kings rock losing to faster pokemon that can't get flinched. Bright powder and kings rock also have little opportunity cost, as the only thing you're missing out on by running it is another item and adv has a small list of viable items, especially for special attackers. These 3 factors make banning bright powder/kings rock a no brainer. Dynamic punch, however, gives fighting coverage to certain pokemon, can decide the fate of matchups without involving luck(metagross vs blissey), and is a strong move in and of itself. Dynamic punch's possible counterplay includes killing the dynamic punch user before it gets a hit off, or just straight up using a pokemon that doesn't mind the confusion. All special attackers will run 0 attack IVs to reduce the damage that confusion can do to them, and stall type pokemon like vaporeon don't care about metagross or jirachi clicking dynamic punch cause its less reliable than other moves they have and the confusion will likely never decide a matchup like metagross vs vaporeon. Finally, running and clicking dynamic punch comes with a fairly large opportunity cost, cause running dynamic punch just means a move slot you possibly wasted for little return on investment.
Well that's it. I wrote a lot so you don't have to read everything I said but I'd love it if you did. Please feel free to respond to my post with your own thoughts on the matter, at the end of the day I'm just one person who didn't even qualify for adv lt and I definitely don't know everything there is to know about adv 1v1. The council is talking and I'm sure if enough people want dynamic punch gone it will be banned, I just want to offer up a counter argument for keeping dynamic punch in the tier. Thanks for (maybe) reading, and I'll talk to you later.
While luck is an important part of pokemon, the argument that smbz ia making is that dynamic punch induces excessive and uncompetitive amount of luck. Just because things might "even out" in the long run doesn't make it OK. Especially in a tournament setting, where only up to 5 games are being played, having something that can force coinflips is very uncompetitive.Now even with the math laid out, many people may object to such a "luck oriented" move being included in the tier, which I can completely understand. Losing to a miss or to hitting yourself in confusion is never fun, and you might feel like you got robbed of a battle. However, I consider luck to be so integral to the tier of adv 1v1 that in the grand scheme of everything this is nothing short of a normal battle. For example at some point I considered aerodactyl to have a decent chance of beating zapdos, since you can either win by critting or by flinching a rock slide; despite the fact that zapdos lives a rock slide and should always be beating aerodactyl in a perfect world. Luck can neither be prepared for or avoided, and every battle in adv is somewhat affected by luck. SuperMemeBroz says that they've won by getting lucky with dynamic punch, and that they've lost by missing with dynamic punch, listing both of these things as reasons why dynamic punch is broken. I disagree, as I think that the good and bad luck someone experiences with dynamic punch will even out, and have no real effect on the tier. I can freeze you with ice beam, you can freeze me with ice beam, and at the end of the day none of us get a real advantage from this fact.
This is true, and imo is the only valid counter-argument for dynamic punch. Betting on hitting one out of eight 50/50s is not unreasonable, and it does have a niche on some pokemon.Dynamic punch does also have real uses outside of "cheesing matchups". Dynamic punch serves as a sure and reliable way for metagross to beat blissey, since metagross can miss dynamic punch as many times as it wants and can click dynamic punch until it lands and ohkos the blissey.
There is no precedent for banning dynamic punch in particular, but other tiers have banned moves such as hypnosis and swagger for similar reasons.Finally I just want to try to reason why we've chosen to ban bright powder/kings rock and not dynamic punch as of today. This comes down to really two main reasons, the first being a lack of precedent(thanks to hungryfoodies for helping me remember the word cause I forgot it). No other tier has banned dynamic punch yet, dpp getting the closest by banning machamp for abusing no guard dynamic punch. Alternatively, every 1v1 tier(that I know of) has banned bright powder/kings rock, and adv only got the idea to ban these items after other tiers did it first. I think the reason no other tier has banned dynamic punch yet is the same reason adv hasn't, and is a pretty good case for keeping the move in the tier.
Getting ohko's in adv is much more difficult compared to recent gens because of the powercreep. The most reliable counterplay involves tanking the move, either with a fighting resist or by having a lot of defense. Even then, many mus can be forced into a 25% chance to lose. The main issue is that mons that resist dynamic punch are few and far between in adv, and there are tons of mons that learn dynamic punch. It just becomes a massive constraint in the builder if you have to prep such that all of your mons resist dynamic punch, or ohko everything just to avoid getting forced into a coinflip.The second reason why dynamic punch and these luck items are different is a combination of how much they add to the tier, how much counterplay exists, and the opportunity cost of running it. Bright powder and kings rock add nothing of substance to the tier, and have really no counterplay aside from kings rock losing to faster pokemon that can't get flinched. Bright powder and kings rock also have little opportunity cost, as the only thing you're missing out on by running it is another item and adv has a small list of viable items, especially for special attackers. These 3 factors make banning bright powder/kings rock a no brainer. Dynamic punch, however, gives fighting coverage to certain pokemon, can decide the fate of matchups without involving luck(metagross vs blissey), and is a strong move in and of itself. Dynamic punch's possible counterplay includes killing the dynamic punch user before it gets a hit off, or just straight up using a pokemon that doesn't mind the confusion. All special attackers will run 0 attack IVs to reduce the damage that confusion can do to them, and stall type pokemon like vaporeon don't care about metagross or jirachi clicking dynamic punch cause its less reliable than other moves they have and the confusion will likely never decide a matchup like metagross vs vaporeon. Finally, running and clicking dynamic punch comes with a fairly large opportunity cost, cause running dynamic punch just means a move slot you possibly wasted for little return on investment.
Also I forgot to mention that in my opinion coin flips are not healthy when they’re happening this frequently. Completely fine on ladder but given adv is no longer on ladder this is only going to happen in tour where the luck won’t necessarily even out. I know this isn’t necessarily your opinion and just counterpoints but I feel like whether SMB had a 25% or a 50% chance to win doesn’t change the fact that games like that just make both players feel bad.The adv council has talked a bit about dynamic punch and we don't currently have a verdict as we're waiting for more people to talk about this to see what the adv playerbase is leaning toward. This post in no way represents what the council thinks, and is just my two cents on the situation(is it ten cents? whatever it doesn't matter).
First of all, smb's math while it might be true for this particular replay, really doesn't represent their real chance of winning in that battle. Here's a short explanation on why the odds of winning that battle was actually in their favor rather than XSC's.
Tldr; Supermemebroz had a 56.25% chance of winning the battle, and they just happened to get the coin flip to win the battle.So in the battle there's four possible scenarios. Either jirachi hits two dynamic punches in a row, misses the first and hits the second, hits the first and misses the second, or misses both in a row. Each of these scenarios have an equally likely chance of happening, so we can calculate the chance to win in each scenario and average them all out.
Scenario 1: (hit+hit)
Hitting two dynamic punches in a row will always win, plain and simple. 100% win chance.
Scenario 2: (hit+miss)
Hitting the first dynamic punch guarantees confusion, and from the replay we can see a dynamic punch hit into a confusion self-hit will kill. Ursaring can hit itself in confusion either on turn 1 or turn 2, and has a 50% chance on either turn. We only need ursaring to hit itself once in two turns, and so jirachi has a 75% chance to win in this scenario.
Scenario 3: (miss+hit)
This is what happened in the replay, jirachi hits on the second turn and confuses ursaring. Ursaring can either hit itself and lose or hit jirachi and win, which gives jirachi a 50% chance to win in this scenario.
Scenario 4: (miss+miss)
Ooh, bad luck. Sorry you have a 0% chance to win if this happens.
Averaging the chance of winning in each scenario, we get (100+75+50+0)/4 which is equal to 225/4, which is equal to a 56.25% chance of jirachi winning. Jirachi and ursaring can both crit so crit chances even out and I decided to ignore them.
Now even with the math laid out, many people may object to such a "luck oriented" move being included in the tier, which I can completely understand. Losing to a miss or to hitting yourself in confusion is never fun, and you might feel like you got robbed of a battle. However, I consider luck to be so integral to the tier of adv 1v1 that in the grand scheme of everything this is nothing short of a normal battle. For example at some point I considered aerodactyl to have a decent chance of beating zapdos, since you can either win by critting or by flinching a rock slide; despite the fact that zapdos lives a rock slide and should always be beating aerodactyl in a perfect world. Luck can neither be prepared for or avoided, and every battle in adv is somewhat affected by luck. SuperMemeBroz says that they've won by getting lucky with dynamic punch, and that they've lost by missing with dynamic punch, listing both of these things as reasons why dynamic punch is broken. I disagree, as I think that the good and bad luck someone experiences with dynamic punch will even out, and have no real effect on the tier. I can freeze you with ice beam, you can freeze me with ice beam, and at the end of the day none of us get a real advantage from this fact.
Dynamic punch does also have real uses outside of "cheesing matchups". Dynamic punch serves as a sure and reliable way for metagross to beat blissey, since metagross can miss dynamic punch as many times as it wants and can click dynamic punch until it lands and ohkos the blissey.
Finally I just want to try to reason why we've chosen to ban bright powder/kings rock and not dynamic punch as of today. This comes down to really two main reasons, the first being a lack of precedent(thanks to hungryfoodies for helping me remember the word cause I forgot it). No other tier has banned dynamic punch yet, dpp getting the closest by banning machamp for abusing no guard dynamic punch. Alternatively, every 1v1 tier(that I know of) has banned bright powder/kings rock, and adv only got the idea to ban these items after other tiers did it first. I think the reason no other tier has banned dynamic punch yet is the same reason adv hasn't, and is a pretty good case for keeping the move in the tier.
The second reason why dynamic punch and these luck items are different is a combination of how much they add to the tier, how much counterplay exists, and the opportunity cost of running it. Bright powder and kings rock add nothing of substance to the tier, and have really no counterplay aside from kings rock losing to faster pokemon that can't get flinched. Bright powder and kings rock also have little opportunity cost, as the only thing you're missing out on by running it is another item and adv has a small list of viable items, especially for special attackers. These 3 factors make banning bright powder/kings rock a no brainer. Dynamic punch, however, gives fighting coverage to certain pokemon, can decide the fate of matchups without involving luck(metagross vs blissey), and is a strong move in and of itself. Dynamic punch's possible counterplay includes killing the dynamic punch user before it gets a hit off, or just straight up using a pokemon that doesn't mind the confusion. All special attackers will run 0 attack IVs to reduce the damage that confusion can do to them, and stall type pokemon like vaporeon don't care about metagross or jirachi clicking dynamic punch cause its less reliable than other moves they have and the confusion will likely never decide a matchup like metagross vs vaporeon. Finally, running and clicking dynamic punch comes with a fairly large opportunity cost, cause running dynamic punch just means a move slot you possibly wasted for little return on investment.
Well that's it. I wrote a lot so you don't have to read everything I said but I'd love it if you did. Please feel free to respond to my post with your own thoughts on the matter, at the end of the day I'm just one person who didn't even qualify for adv lt and I definitely don't know everything there is to know about adv 1v1. The council is talking and I'm sure if enough people want dynamic punch gone it will be banned, I just want to offer up a counter argument for keeping dynamic punch in the tier. Thanks for (maybe) reading, and I'll talk to you later.