(2) Denver Nuggets versus (3) Portland Trailblazers
So, Denver’s for real. Or at least real in the sense that they could conceivably make it to the western conference finals.
I know I said the lack of Nurkic would have made a big difference in the Oklahoma City series, but we may have to seriously consider it even more in this series knowing Jokic is far more imposing than Adams.
Denver may not necessarily be more imposing with their frontline defensively, but their three-point percentage defense at least over the course of the regular season is enough to consider that they could limit Portland’s three-point shooting, and whenever Portland loses much of that, their chances of winning a game drop significantly.
Portland can get through this whole ordeal if their role-players can make shots, and if it is to be expected that Denver is a better defensive team on the perimeter, it stands to reason that Portland’s looks will be a bit worse and ball movement will be a bit more key.
I want to say it feels like this series comes down to the stars more than you would think if only because they are decent barometers. Lillard and McCollum must play well. That’s just it, and you could say the same for Jokic. Which team’s star players will have a more consistent impact on their teams? Jokic, at least for his match-ups, has far fewer imposing players to stop him (Kanter, Leonard, Collins). Craig, Harris, and Morris are certainly far more intimidating relative to their position. To me, this is already a plus for Denver.
I said rebounding would be key in the Oklahoma City series, and Portland did a decent job. Denver is even better in that department, and I have a gut feeling Jokic and Millsap could feast inside. They did do this at times against San Antonio, a good defensive rebounding team, and you still must account for the loss of Nurkic.
I only have two concerning questions for Denver: One, if Portland spreads you out, can Jokic be counted on to be effective in a spread pick and roll offensive with someone as lethal as Lillard? Two, who will Murray guard? McCollum? Sounds like a disaster waiting to happen. Harkless/Aminu? Another disaster waiting to happen.
The central themes of this series to me are basically this: the backcourt scoring of Portland versus Denver’s interior scoring, rebounding, and shot-making from their tertiary options. Who do you trust more in these areas?
Denver wins if: Jokic is feasting, not abused in a spread pick and roll as much through Lillard, and Denver’s backcourt prove to be decent defensive stoppers
Portland wins if: Lillard spread pick and roll is unbelievably explosive offensively, destroying one of the best three-point defenses percentage wise, his role players make their shots through this defense, and they keep up in rebounding. Kanter becomes a starter-caliber player in a small line-up in 2019.
Denver in six.