Eastern Conference Finals Analysis
"I'm Wolverine, man. You know Wolverine? I'm Wolverine, except for when I die, I'mma just die" – Kyle Lowry
"If I knew he was there, I would have probably gone like this (puts one hand down to protect his crotch) or tried to avoid him. I do not want to hit my private areas. But I did not see him." “I want to win a championship for this city, but I’m not willing to put somebody under the bus to do it.” – Giannis Antetokounmpo
Eric Bledsoe on if he takes the matchup with Terry Rozier personally: “Who?” Bledsoe replied. “Terry Rozier,” a reporter said again. “I don’t know who the f*** that is,” Bledsoe responded.
(1) Milwaukee Bucks versus (2) Toronto Raptors
A very high-stakes match-up. The way this match-up ends could determine the future of Kawhi.
There’re quite a few angles to examine but the most fascinating to me is the frontline match-up of Giannis/Middleton/Lopez versus Kawhi/Siakim/Gasol/Ibaka. There are so many possibilities on how effective either can be guarding each other or trying to score. I do not foresee anyone other than Siakim on Giannis for most of the time. What this will likely do is probably take Siakim out of a lot of games which is negative, because he’s probably the second most consistent scorer for
Toronto. Kawhi would be great in stretches because he’s one of the best at ball-denial. Ibaka would be my third pick if say, Siakim gets in foul trouble because Gasol would be far too slow. Truthfully, if
Milwaukee spaces the floor well enough,
Toronto doesn’t stand a chance in containing him any more than
Boston in the previous series.
I’m curious to see Nurse’s core strategy. Force Giannis to score 40+ and stay home on everyone else or force him to pass and dare the other teammates to make shots? The question might be a little easier the other way around considering the last series, Kawhi went through many stretches of very little help from the rest of his teammates against
Philadelphia. A large part of who I favor in this series has to do with whose supporting cast appears more consistent and confident in making plays.
The point-guard match-up is key too. If Middleton will have his hands full with Kawhi, and Siakim will with Giannis, Lowry, and Bledsoe are the next players in line who can affect the game. Both players are wildly inconsistent. I want to say I slightly favor Bledsoe just based on his athletic tools, but then I think about the fact that Lowry is one of the best guys to get charges which would be huge against Giannis. Who knows, this match-up may end up being a wash too, and that’s what makes this series so perplexing.
The last series I talked about how I was very wary of Horford pick-and-popping Lopez to death because he isn’t a mobile center. Now, I’m not as worried. Gasol and Ibaka combined don’t seem as threatening from three as Horford, but that doesn’t mean it can’t swing a few games. Ibaka will shoot if he’s open and hopefully, Gasol will as well, because we know Splash Mountain is certainly going to shoot. It is imperative
Toronto’s centers put pressure on Lopez.
Milwaukee is the best team in the league at shutting down the rim, and
Toronto will need more shotmakers outside the paint. So far this playoff, they simply haven’t been there.
So, who do I favor and why?
Being honest, walking into this post-season, I have
Toronto as my #1 pick out the East. They had the best distribution of talent, depth, veteranship, and scheme to me. Unfortunately, the previous round has exposed plenty of the issues they’ve ran into during the regular season. Sometimes, Kawhi pounds the ball a wee bit too much. Siakim has improved tremendously this season, but his move from the bench to the starting line-up coupled with trades has depleted the bench to essentially VanVleet who has struggled, and the bench units he’ll be up against certainly won’t be as weak as
Philadelphia’s. I honestly feel like
Toronto has less room for error in comparison to
Milwaukee.
They’ve mostly gotten by with their on-ball defense and Kawhi’s clutchness. Eventually, his teammates will have to consistently step up and make plays. I have a hard time imagining that happening against
Milwaukee. It can happen, but
Milwaukee in the previous round had them play better
with Giannis on the bench. That is simply wild.
I look at it like this: if I feel Giannis/Middleton/Bledsoe/Lopez are equal to Kawhi/Siakim/Lowry/Ibaka and Gasol on paper, which team has the intangibles and seem better at the margins? If you chose
Toronto, you’re probably thinking their defense is enough to muck up
Milwaukee’s schemes, and you believe their supporting guys will come back alive and just hope
Philadelphia’s size was the only reason they struggled. If you chose
Milwaukee, you’re probably looking at their depth advantage, Giannis’s ability to draw fouls, and trusting their secondary and role players to be more dominant as displayed in the previous series.
Milwaukee wins if: Giannis’ supporting cast was simply better. Lopez provides more at the center position than anybody
Toronto has. Kawhi gets no help. Bledsoe doesn’t know who Lowry is.
Toronto wins if: Kawhi gets help. Ibaka shoots 15 of 20 from three. Lowry’s fat ass gets Giannis in foul trouble.
Toronto’s combination of excellent individual defense and length is better than
Milwaukee’s offensive schemes.
Milwaukee in six.