Los Angeles Lakers versus (8) Portland Trailblazers
I’m not just saying this because I hate Los Angeles, but they have the worst offensive rating and three-point shooting since the NBA Restart and I am hard-pressed to consider them having high-odds to win the championship knowing the last few champions. (I am definitely saying this because I hate Los Angeles but this fact still must be acknowledged. Also kanburi, I am ignoring you if you respond to this). Another important note about this team is that when Davis plays center is when their offense appears a bit worse and Davis’ numbers relatively speaking are tamer; not when he plays the power forward position. I theorize this is because defensive fives often can force him to shoot over the top, keep Los Angeles in half-court, and rebound along with him. If the game slows, Los Angeles suffers regardless of what they do basically.
Portland though… has Nurkic, and two years ago, Davis dominated this match-up against Portland. Do things change here? Because Portland can’t compete without Nurkic. Nurkic has to be able to neutralize
Davis for the majority of the time they share the floor especially if Davis plays the five. Will it happen?
Only other way Portland competes is if their defense can hold up against James individually. I know I said Los Angeles struggles offensively, but their superstars overall don’t. Portland lacks a decent defensive swingman, and even a 35-year-old LeBron could likely
just post-up and be a triple-threat on offense. That might be a little bit better than Lillard’s scoring even if Los Angeles is ill-equipped to deal with guards.
I suppose Collins is the guy likely to get the most minutes on LeBron with Ariza out, but that’s not a bad option. LeBron is 35, and just 6-7 years ago, Diaw gave one of the best defensive efforts we’ve seen
LeBron do in playoff history despite being more of a power forward. If Zach Collins can dare him to shoot more and keep him in front, it’ll keep the series competitive for Portland.
Los Angeles should be favored to win, though. They are more likely to have better tools to guard Portland than vice-versa. Lillard and McCollum, as good as they are, play on a team that is simply incapable of getting consistent stops. They also have two positions most
vulnerable to Los Angeles’ best positions. Also, uh, I will never take a team to win a series ever again if they play Carmelo Anthony serious minutes. Los Angeles will attack his ass. I bet this is a short or mid-long competitive series.
Los Angeles in five.
p.s: if lakers win the ship this year with kobe's death, the pandemic, racial protest and the nba restart I QUIT.
Denver Nuggets versus (6) Utah Jazz
These teams are relatively even in talent… if both are fully healthy. Utah will be missing both Conley and Bogdanovich. So, Denver already wins the talent and depth battle. Donovan and Ingles being trusted to
handle the ball on the perimeter is a tough sell against a team witb decent perimeter defenders.
The other key match-up in this is clearly Jokic versus Gobert in a fight of offensive versatility versus defensive edginess. For Utah to be competitive, Gobert must neutralize Jokic or contribute along with
him. Gobert has had slumps in the playoffs to me. I respect his defensive metrics in the regular season but when he’s matched up against bigs who can shoot or non-bigs, his strengths seem to disappear. This is one of his last chances to prove he can be a dominant defensive presence over the course of a series versus the regular season. Historically, Jokic has had the edge on this match-up. If Jokic can get hot from distance and draw Gobert away from the basket, Denver should have no problem scoring.
Denver overall just has a lot of things they can try and throw out. The recent relevance and prominence of Porter Jr. give them another nice scoring option on the perimeter versus a team already short on the perimeter; but a lot of what will decide how long or competitive this series goes is Gobert’s ability to support an already uphill battle for Utah’s perimeter players.
Denver in six.
(2) Los Angeles Clippers versus (7) Dallas Mavericks
Dallas has enjoyed one of the best offensive ratings in modern history. This series isn’t in question, but it will be a great test of amazing heliocentric pace-and-space offense versus helter-skelter top-tier perimeter defense. Just how good is Los Angeles’ defense? Especially considering they haven’t played together healthy and consistently?
Los Angeles doesn’t play too many traditional big guys, so it’s on Porzingis to take advantage of his size close to the basket, but that hasn’t exactly been one of his strengths. If Porzingis allows Los Angeles to guard him with all smaller guys and he can’t dominate or
take advantage at a high level, that only bolsters Los Angeles’ overall defense in this match-up.
Dallas doesn't really have options for Kawhi and George. Dallas has Finney-Smith… and that’s it. That’s literally it. In order to compete with Los Angeles, I feel you need at least two capable swingmen who
can take on Leonard and George in an open-space pick-and-roll situation. Also, Doncic will be forced to guard somebody as well which will take away his offensive efficiency.
This would be a more competitive match-up if Dallas was more of a complete team, Dallas had a reliable third scorer (you trust Curry or Hardaway to win you a series), and Porzingis was more of a paint-dominant player. Unfortunately, I can’t see this being anything other than a quick
(4) Houston Rockets versus (5) Oklahoma City Thunder
This series has a ton of hype and rightfully so. The history of the players on both sides as well as Paul and Westbrook essentially being traded for each other is too big to ignore.
My first question for the series is this: what happens to Adams? Will he be played off the floor or will dominate the glass and keep Oklahoma City competitive? If Adams is indeed played off the floor,
how well does Gallinari and Noel play center in comparison to Covington?
The perimeter is even more intriguing to me. How well do Paul, Gilgeous-Alexander, and Schroder defend in isolation? With Westbrook missing at least the first game, how well can he play coming back?
Houston is probably one of the most unpredictable teams I’ve thought about in recent years. A team embracing a forward as a center and small-ball full-time with Harden and Westbrook essentially rested has a huge variance. We’ve never seen this technically done, and they will either get hot for a good month and go far, or tire-out and be killed on the glass with a whimper. How other teams adjust and play to this
unprecedented size and strategy is... quite frankly, out of my paygrade (I’m not getting paid).
So, with this being the first series, and with questions raised about Westbrook, I gotta consider this close to even in odds. There aren’t many things that lean me strongly in either direction. If I am Oklahoma City, I am going at Covington and welcoming that switch onto
a guard. Covington is long and a great help-defender but is known for slow feet and being unable to keep-up with guards who are talented off-the-dribble. I am also making sure if I lose, it will be to PJ Tucker, Green, Covington, not Harden, Rivers, Gordon or Westbrook.
We know what Houston wants to do. They want to play Adams off the floor and force you to adapt to them first. They will go at your weakest one-on-one defender in space. Gallinari and Noel aren’t exactly bad answers to defending guards on the perimeter, but they gotta contribute on the other end. Will they be able to?
I also wouldn’t underestimate Chris Paul in this. He’s older and less physically intimidating, but Paul is an incredibly cerebral player who essentially counts as much as a coach as he does as a player. Paul
knows Harden and D’Antoni in-and-out at this point, and that gives Oklahoma City a distinctive personnel advantage in how to plan and adapt even if their small-ball scheme hasn’t had a single match-up
with this version of Oklahoma City... In fact, that’s by far one of the better intangibles besides Oklahoma City having the two best players (well, supposedly if Westbrook comes back with no issues). The
other intangible I’d like to point out in favor of Oklahoma City is their amazing crunch-time numbers which are also thanks to Chris Paul which I have to admit, is a very big deal going up against this man in
any seven-game series if he’s on the court in any way.
Ultimately, what intangibles do you trust more? Harden’s ability? Paul’s knowledge? Westbrook’s health? Austin Rivers’ growth? Small-ball’s longevity in a series and Houston’s ability to post defend across the board? I legitimately have no idea and will just
just choose Oklahoma City out of distrust in Houston’s overall schemes over a series and nothing more; but I see this as the most likely upset of the first-round (upset in the sense of, a lower-seed beating
a seed higher than it).
Oklahoma City in seven.
Miami Heat versus (5) Indiana Pacers
Not much to say here. Miami has much more versatility and talent even if a couple of them are rookies. McMillan is a very rigid coach and doesn’t favor long-distance shooting while Miami is among the better teams in protecting the rim since the Restart. This already sets the table for a shorter series for me.
Miami can switch everything until Olynyk gets in and even then, I don’t think Indiana has much hope in beating Miami trying to shoot over the top of switches with guards. Also, Indiana has a depth issue especially with Oladipo looking off and Sabonis missing.
Butler versus Warren has a lot of hype but uh, that’s Jimmy Butler. It’ll take more than a few hot games for me to consider that even a tie.
Can Turner bring enough to the series that Adebayo doesn’t outwork him? Adebayo can check Turner near or far from the basket, rebound better most likely and pass better. If Turner isn’t shooting hot from three, he can’t do much else. Meanwhile, Adebayo can punish switches and find a place to fit I feel in most of Miami’s line-ups. So even if Turner is more talented, Adebayo feels like he will have a much easier time playing his game.
I tried thinking of the advantages of Indiana. I failed.
Miami in five.
Rest of the series in the East: self-explanatory. Won't waste my time this year