haven't posted in here in a while (been super busy irl lol) but wanted to weigh w my clippers vs suns prediction (will do the ecf too once we know the matchup):
probably the most interesting thing about this series will be the stylistic matchup between teams, where phoenix represents an update on the 90s team archetype (getting offense and playmaking through the guard and big spots with forwards providing shooting and defense) and the clippers represent the more new age 5-out switch-everything drive-and-kick paradigm. you can def say that the clippers' way is better for winning in the modern nba but at the same time there are noticeable flaws in it that I think the suns are equipped to target.
the primary difference there is defensive; for all the narratives about gobert's defensive impact or luka being a ballhog (lol), dallas and utah lost their series because kawhi and pg treated their best perimeter defenders like traffic cones over and over, which forced defensive rotations and opened up shots for their corner shooters. phoenix having a legitimate defensive stopper to put on pg in mikal bridges, with two other switchable forwards in cam johnson and jae crowder becomes a significant factor here in terms of not letting the best three-point shooting team in the league get the shots that they want. they won't stop the clippers outright but cooling them down from their 124.4 offensive rating is more than doable.
I'm not too worried about phoenix's offense; even with chris paul out, cam payne has been serviceable and after watching mitchell and luka cook I'd be very very surprised if booker couldn't comfortably get his in the series. that said, the biggest factor vs the clippers' switch-everything defense is going to be ayton; whether he can be physical enough against the clippers switches and kill them on the offensive glass to nerf their primary matchups. I think booker's playmaking is going to come in huge in this (elite finishers need playmakers to set them up), at least until cp3 comes back. if zubac can earn back his spot in the rotation for the ayton matchup (ayton being probably the best offensive big the clippers have faced considering that porzingis turned into a potato) and hold his own against booker (who plays at a more measured pace than luka and mitchell) then it becomes a dogfight though.
the morale factor is an interesting one ultimately; for all the 'suns haven't been tested yet' talk they beat the defending champions and swept a strong-looking denver team with cp3 only partially effective, and for all the lakers and nuggets' injuries they haven't looked really vulnerable since like game 4 of the first round, with booker in particular looking like he was born for this stage. meanwhile the clippers have finally shed the frontrunner label w the last two series and overall look like they're peaking at the right time, clippers curse notwithstanding (obviously don't want to litigate that in this analysis lol). ultimately while I agree that the clippers definitely have more experience the suns' superior chemistry and consistency has to count for something.
I've gone this far trying to pass over the obvious elephant in the room that both teams are entering this series with arguably their best player injured, but a quick run-over of the lost opportunities there; phoenix would have more stability when booker heads to the bench, ayton would be more of a factor with cp3 setting him up out of the pick and roll, and the suns would look like a better team in crunch time, meanwhile kawhi is probably the clippers' best option defending booker and his scoring would probably be necessary to crack the suns' defense. ultimately I'd say the obvious counter to both the above points is the redundancy built into both teams; pg can replicate kawhi's role well enough just as booker can replicate cp3's that neither team will really feel the drop-off until like 3-4 games into the series. ultimately it's worth noting the different situations the two teams are in aswell wrt their injured stars; it feels like a safe bet that cp3 returns and can be an impact player, but kawhi's injury status and his pending free agency complicate his potential return (my guess is that the clippers are confident in the fact that he resigns and choose to prioritise his health for future runs as opposed to going all-in this year). overall here's how it stacks up for me:
suns w/o cp3 vs clippers w/o kawhi: suns in 7
suns w cp3 vs clippers w/o kawhi: suns in 5-6
suns w/o cp3 vs clippers w kawhi: clippers in 6
suns w cp3 vs clippers w kawhi: tossup game 7, phoenix by a hair.
clippers win if: their shooters stay hot and the offense continues to hum, they dominate the non-booker minutes, they can contain ayton inside, if kawhi returns healthy enough to swing the series
suns win if: bridges can slow down pg13 without giving the clippers advantages, cam payne and booker's playmaking proves sufficient to beat the clippers' switch-everything defense, ayton continues his strong play this postseason, cp3 returns and can be an impact player
suns in 6 to advance to their first finals appearance since 1993