In the midst of absolute scandal in Iowa Nevada Democratic Party Hires a Director I’d Voting Oversight from Pet’s campaign— yeah, that means nothing.
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Serious 2020 Democratic Primary Thread
- Thread starter MikeDawg
- Start date
This really is a test of democracy because these idiots are not even hiding the ball of cheating— either the citizens will recognize it and rise up to elect Bernie, or people really are just that dumb and we fall deeper into oligarchy.
Ahhh the Bernie Sanders white savior complex.
I think the point he’s making is the GOP will not be anywhere near the same as dealing with the Dems. All this nonsense about ”the establishment“ keeping Bernie down is a bit overblown imo. Could they do better by him? Certainly. But if you watched the debate the other night, when they went to commercial Bernie was shaking hands and chatting with the other candidates like anyone else; I remember him and Biden chatting a few times. Bernie is “an outsider” to an extent but especially after his 2016 rise he‘s a lot closer to the core of the party. It’s all relative. Biden v Bernie is like Iron Man v Cap.
The GOP won’t treat him anywhere near the same way. I fully expect in the event Bernie wins the nom that we’ll see an insane level of antisemitism and consistent mentions of his heart attack, his age, his trips to the Soviet Union, etc.
Correct. The Democrats have be cautious in not personally attacking Bernie Sanders in either of his two runs. Republicans are ruthless. There is no length they won’t go in viciousness to move their base to the polls (and further encourage disaffected voters to sit out).
Warren, Klobuchar, Biden, and Bloomberg. Out of the four Biden is actually the weakest.
Still, none of this speculation matters much. Most Democrats sole focus is getting dipshvt out of office. We’d vote for Daffy Duck or Snooki over the Cheeto in Chief.
Is Bernie not the favorite to win the nomination right now? I can provide sources if I need to. What makes you so confident he won’t?
Let’s pick one of them. How is Klobuchar battle hardened? She hasn’t faced many attacks from anywhere. Bernie has been attacked way more then her, we have no idea how she stands up under scrutiny. In what world is that battle hardened?
Klobuchar won Minnesota by more than 20 points relative to Hillary and more than 10 relative to fellow senator Tina Smith. She’s hardened in the sense that opponents have had multiple chances against her and no one ever comes close. She just wins, and wins as though Minnesota were rock solid blue not purple side of blue state.
I don’t expect her to win the primary for many reasons but there’s no doubt in my mind she’s the most tested and foolproof option. If Dems truly just wanted the “most likely to win” option it should be her.
you could also argue for warren being battle hardened given she beat a quite popular incumbent in Scott Brown.
I don’t see any of the others as being particularly thoroughly tested, as none have run against a republican who has any enthusiasm behind them any time remotely recently.
Could any of them win? Sure, I mean I hope so... I think most any generic inoffensive Democrat would run ahead of Hillary, and she already won the pop vote by 3m. It becomes a near statistic impossibility to lose the EC if you run much ahead of Hillary’s 16 numbers. “Generic” and “inoffensive” isn’t what wins primaries though, since it hardly inspires turnout in them.
I don’t expect her to win the primary for many reasons but there’s no doubt in my mind she’s the most tested and foolproof option. If Dems truly just wanted the “most likely to win” option it should be her.
you could also argue for warren being battle hardened given she beat a quite popular incumbent in Scott Brown.
I don’t see any of the others as being particularly thoroughly tested, as none have run against a republican who has any enthusiasm behind them any time remotely recently.
Could any of them win? Sure, I mean I hope so... I think most any generic inoffensive Democrat would run ahead of Hillary, and she already won the pop vote by 3m. It becomes a near statistic impossibility to lose the EC if you run much ahead of Hillary’s 16 numbers. “Generic” and “inoffensive” isn’t what wins primaries though, since it hardly inspires turnout in them.
what do u expect to see in terms of antisemitism? i definitely wouldnt pretend that america's support for israel has a whole lot to with its love for jewish people, but since it is often framed that way, anglos seem pretty sensitive to antisemitism. i feel like relying on antisemitic tropes could easily backfire
Daffy got my vote!
He’s the “favorite” after results of one race and polling of a border adjacent state. Both states are among the least representative of the Democratic Party. FiveThirtyEights primary model is Highly flawed trying to run fluid predictions based off past events.
Bernie is a quintessential left wing bureaucrat. He hasn’t demonstrated ability to win in unfavorable terrain (Vermont is as white and liberal a state out there). or win tough races. Klobuchar is not my favorite candidate but wins in Minnesota by margins significantly past the states partisan index. Warren is a strong one on one debater and ousted a Republican incumbent to win her seat.
I’m curious, who do you think has the biggest chance then? Biden is currently going down after a fourth-place finish in Iowa, likely third or fourth place in New Hampshire, and is currently going down in every recent National and state-specific poll right now. His campaign even had to pull ads from South Carolina, which might not sound that bad until you see the most recent South Carolina poll, that has him only 5 points up. Plus there’s the fact that no democrat has ever won the nomination after coming in fourth in Iowa, if you want to talk about historical precedent which I assume is why you don’t think Bernie can win the nom.
Buttigeg outperformed the Iowa polls and is surging in New Hampshire. However, those are both really white states and he is still really struggling with minority support. That’s not going to bode well for him in Nevada, South Carolina, or many of the Super Tuesday states. I just don’t think there’s a path to the nomination winning only white states.
Warren just isn’t doing well in the polls right now. According to pretty much every recent poll, she’s not in a strong position to win NH, Nevada, SC, or most Super Tuesday states. Unless she really outperforms the polls, I don’t know if she has a path to the nomination.
Bloomberg’s Super Tuesday strategy is really unprecedented but idk how well it’ll work since you kinda want momentum going into Super Tuesday not coming out. He could surprise on Super Tuesday I guess, (as a side note, fuck I hope he’s not the nominee) but I don’t know where his path is from there if he doesn’t have a really strong showing.
Everyone else just doesn’t seem to be polling well enough to have any path. Klobuchar and Steyer maybe but that’s a big maybe.
So out of all these choices, who do you think is likely to be the nominee?
I mean, Bernie beat a Republican incumbent in 1990 and he also seems to be a good debater. If that’s all you need he seems to be at least as strong as Warren.
Remember the George Soros dogwhistles in 2016? About twice as bad as that. Idt it will be Trump himself moreso the typical pundits. Especially where Bernie has this surge of money coming in from grassroots donors that’s a goldmine for globalist-style conspiracies and attacks. From the people who brought you Seth Rich and Pizzagate, anything is possible.
oh im sure that kind of conspiratorial thinking will happen, but i doubt it's something that can be used as a political strategy to repress voter turnout since i'd assume the people who are susceptible to those theories are largely already on the right. i could be off-base, maybe "blue" america is a lot more antisemitic than it's letting on, but i doubt antisemitism would be a deciding factor in a bernie vs trump election. plus, if obama's shown us anything it's that you can overcome racial prejudice if you can get enough enthusiasm behind your campaign
Yes of course, but out of the democratic candidates he's been the most consistently attacked out of the top tiers. He's under a big level of scrutiny especially from big media outlets (because they are most threatened by his agenda).I think the point he’s making is the GOP will not be anywhere near the same as dealing with the Dems. All this nonsense about ”the establishment“ keeping Bernie down is a bit overblown imo. Could they do better by him? Certainly. But if you watched the debate the other night, when they went to commercial Bernie was shaking hands and chatting with the other candidates like anyone else; I remember him and Biden chatting a few times. Bernie is “an outsider” to an extent but especially after his 2016 rise he‘s a lot closer to the core of the party. It’s all relative. Biden v Bernie is like Iron Man v Cap.
The GOP won’t treat him anywhere near the same way. I fully expect in the event Bernie wins the nom that we’ll see an insane level of antisemitism and consistent mentions of his heart attack, his age, his trips to the Soviet Union, etc.
I understand the GOP would go way harder on him than the dems, but that is true for every candidate. They'll go after Joe for his corruption. They'll go after Warren for being "Pocahontas" and inauthentic. They'll go after Klobuchar for her staff abuse and the whole comb salad thing. Etc. It's gonna be hard for anyone, not just Bernie.
Anyone who thinks Warren is battle hardened when she couldn't even handle a simple question from Amy Goodman without throwing a fit is either unaware or delusional.
Did you see her at her rally when protesters arrived and she literally froze, unsure of what to do until Ayana Pressley came and saved her?
Have you seen her be asked an actually tough question?
Also you say Bernie's wins in Vermont don't matter because it's a white liberal state, but then you cite Warren's win in Mass as a good thing when Mass is also... a white liberal state lul.
All you have to do is look at Bernie's fundraising and see how he's consistently raised the most money pretty much throughout the whole nation, including the rust belt, compared to the others. Or the fact he won the popular vote in Iowa. Or the fact he beat Hillary in key state primaries in '16 that would be valuable this time around. Or the fact that he has some of the best numbers with Obama-Trump voters. Or the fact that he does really well with Independents. Or the fact that he excites non-voters to go out and vote. Or the fact that, unlike Warren for example, he actually goes on outlets like Fox News to reach out to people who might not understand his policies. Or the fact that he has been consistent his whole career and has advocated consistently in line with his beliefs despite it not being popular, which makes him battle hardened in promoting what he believes compared to others who might have just "hopped onto the progressive train." Or the fact that he has the 2nd best numbers vs Trump in head-to-head matchups (behind Biden). Or that fact that he's done extremely well in the debates despite so many questions that are framed directly against his policies. Or the fact that he is consistently seen as the most trustworthy candidate when it comes to healthcare (most important issue to dems right now). Or the fact that he has an impressive ground game established in many states unlike other candidates like Pete who just invested in Iowa and a bit in New Hampshire. Or the fact that he has a huge number of volunteers and tons of enthusiasm + the biggest rallies, which will help him with turnout in the general.
Not really sure why people are so willing to make the same mistake of rallying around a boring centrist to face Trump instead of going with the populist with the best policies and enthusiast support. It's like people learned nothing from '16.
well, i don't assume it's going to win over blue voters or repress anyone, but that it'll be used to increase their base's turnout.
Why are we self-censoring on a forum with no censor and no rules against foul language lol, thats some weak-ass pussy shit ngl
“Centrists” actually do fare better in general elections. The current Democratic field is hardly centrists. Even Bloomberg is very much a liberal.
Bernie supporters are too wedded to the man instead of the platform. If you want to tackle health care, climate change, voting rights, and infrastructure you have to win elections. Republicans figured out long ago that winning elections is more important than winning arguments. They’ll hold their nose and support whomever will allow them to further entrench the power.
If Bernie is the nominee, I’ll support and vote for him. I just don’t think nominating a 78 year old Jewish self identified socialist fresh off a heart attack is the best way to defeat Trump. Most Democrats share that opinion, which we will soon find out.
Bloomberg was literally a Republican before. His time as a democrat, a right-wing one and centrist at best, is fairly recent.
"78 year old Jewish self identified socialist fresh off a heart attack"
Boy is there a lot to unpack here lmao.
First of all, Liz and Biden and Trump are all in their 70s so uh.
Secondly, his heart attack didn't really seem to register much as the weeks after were the beginning of his increased momentum and he's been pretty dynamic afterwards. I understand the concern, but he seems overall healthy at this point especially after the procedure.
Jewish idk why you mentioned... As if it's a bad thing we'd have a Jewish president?
He's a self identified democratic socialist. Yes, controversial. But despite that he's had big popularity and on the flip side, made people will actually see him as authentic because he has no fear to call himself that. Authenticity being something the rest of the top tiers seem to sorely lack.
"Most democrats share that opinion, which we will soon find out"
Show me proof of this claim that isn't opinion or anecdote lul
"We shouldn't have a minority candidate. Why? Well....uh....the RACIST guys are gonna be too racist, we don't want that do we?"
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Another thing to bring up about Bernie’s age is that if he is the nominee, neither major party nominee will be able to claim health as a strong suit. Despite what Trump would claim, a diet consisting mainly of hamberders and having no exercise outside of golf is not a way to be healthy. I honestly don’t think candidates as old as Bernie or Biden could be considered front runners if it weren’t for Trump not exactly being an example of good health.
It would be a mistake to believe either side has this in the bag, but I do think Bernie would be able to respond to Trump’s attacks (at the very least, respond to them more effectively than Hillary Clinton responded to his attacks on her).
It would be a mistake to believe either side has this in the bag, but I do think Bernie would be able to respond to Trump’s attacks (at the very least, respond to them more effectively than Hillary Clinton responded to his attacks on her).
Not only was Bloomberg a republican, but he donated to republican candidates in 2016 and 2018. He donated a large amount to Toomey’s senate campaign in 2016 and probably cost the democrats a seat in the senate that would have made Kavanaugh a lot harder to get through. RaikouLover i actually kind of agree there is exaggeration about how not liberal Pete/Joe/Amy (and even Warren) from the Bernie crowd (and Pete / Joe / Amy are my 6th 5th and 3rd choices after Warren/Bernie), but Bloomberg is a pro stop and frisk conservative. I honestly don’t know if I could vote for Bloomberg in the general and I’m definitely a vote for the dem candidate no matter what cause I’m pragmatic. But fuck Bloomberg, that just needs to be said more often.
Emotion doesn’t foster healthy debate. Calling Sanders a 78 year old Jewish socialist that just had a heart attack is truth; not a personal jab. We both know all of those points will be viciously used against Sanders in a general election. Politics is neither fair nor courteous. Don’t take criticisms of Sanders so personally. It’s clear that mentioning things Republicans will attack bothers you.
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