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Tournament AAAPL IV - Week 5

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Chessking

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Hosted by Chessking, Rex
Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Semifinals | Finals
Information Thread | Draft Board | Roster | Schedule | Standings | Replays​
It is recommended to play all games on SmogTours in the most current version of the format corresponding to those listed above. Games can be played on the Pokemon Showdown main server, but run higher risk of interference from server restarts/crashes.​

Scheduling
Scheduling should be done on Smogon Profile walls, plain and simple:​
- If there is communication on only one user's behalf, the win will go to them. Feel free to call activity in this thread beforehand​
- If there is a very healthy back and forth regarding potential times and one user is a no-show, a manager may take the opportunity to sub out the no-show competitor; if this is not done, the user that showed up responsibly will be awarded the win.​
TL;DR: Post on your opponent's Smogon wall, schedule your matches, and be reliable. If you can't play for any reason, let your manager know so they can sub you out ASAP.​

Sportsmanship
Exhibitions of unsportsmanlike conduct with regards to the Almost Any Ability Premier League will be met with an infraction at the discretion of the AAAPL hosts/OM mods. This rule is meant to protect other users from being publicly flamed/bashed/provoked by another competitor for the duration of and following the tournament.​
​
All players must complete their matches by the given deadline. Any incomplete matches by that time will be subject to an activity decision (MAKE SURE YOU POST ON YOUR OPPONENT'S WALL); otherwise, it will be a deadgame. All matches should be done on your voiced alt and all match replays must be saved and posted in this thread.​

Substitutions
Managers, if you wish to make any substitutions, you must post here tagging both the player you're subbing out, the player you're subbing in,both managers of the opposing team, the substitute's opponent, and ALL of the hosts. This is to assure that everyone is in-the-loop and that the OP is updated accordingly to reflect the new match-up.​
:kartana: Slashing Leaves (7) vs (2) Meowing Meowstics :meowstic:
SV: reversoral vs doso749
SV: Steven Stone 007 vs Blaze
SV: Fluore vs Nakoruru_XD
UU: AM vs Hiusi guy
Ubers: Codename C.A.T vs Fragments
Doubles: sleepyfwog vs Clem
NatDex: damflame 3 vs Kinetic
SS: QT vs cute vn
PokeAAA: Ducky vs Miss Crisis
Draft: Maxomega vs Wheaty
Draft 2 vs Draft 2

:eevee: Eevee Volleys (2) vs (8) Charming Charizzards :charizard:
SV: mmtaccos vs xgxwills
SV: Dahness vs ghostlike
SV: iPetBigfoot vs Dead by Daylight
UU: BoingK vs O1V7O2X9O
Ubers: TTTech vs Quinn
Doubles: zoe vs pengu
NatDex: ItsChew. vs VALCON
SS: Les2BG vs ElectraineHeart
PokeAAA: adriancosmoem vs The Hisui Region
Draft: OrnLatios vs Hacker
Draft 2 vs Draft 1

:cosmog: Stallmaxxing Cosmoggs (6) vs (4) Aerial Acrobatic Archeops :archeops:
SV: Mindnight vs rarre
SV: spell vs seraphz
SV: matte vs jackuzzler
UU: Osake vs Itoshiflwr
Ubers: Pokemh vs Fc
Doubles: Alexw vs Primmie
NatDex: GlalieGoesBoom vs L Lawliet
SS: pyu vs Glory
PokeAAA: hida vs Baddy
Draft: Gwanian vs ThinkingSceptile
Draft 1 vs Draft 1

The deadline for this week is <t:1788753600:f>

:kartana: Slashing Leaves (0) vs (0) Meowing Meowstics :meowstic:
SV: reversoral vs lepton
SV: Steven Stone 007 vs Blaze
SV: Fluore vs Nakoruru_XD
UU: AM vs Hiusi guy
Ubers: Codename C.A.T vs Fragments
Doubles: sleepyfwog vs Clem
NatDex: damflame 3 vs Kinetic
SS: QT vs GhastlyPixie
PokeAAA: Ducky vs Miss Crisis
Draft: Maxomega vs Wheaty

:eevee: Eevee Volleys (0) vs (0) Charming Charizzards :charizard:
SV: mmtaccos vs xgxwills
SV: Dahness vs ghostlike
SV: iPetBigfoot vs Dead by Daylight
UU: BoingK vs O1V7O2X9O
Ubers: TTTech vs Quinn
Doubles: zoe vs pengu
NatDex: ItsChew. vs Atha
SS: Les2BG vs ElectraineHeart
PokeAAA: adriancosmoem vs The Hisui Region
Draft: OrnLatios vs Hacker

:cosmog: Stallmaxxing Cosmoggs (0) vs (0) Aerial Acrobatic Archeops :archeops:
SV: Mindnight vs rarre
SV: spell vs Seraphz
SV: matte vs Jackuzzler
UU: Osake vs Itoshiflwr
Ubers: Pokemh vs Fc
Doubles: Alexw vs Primmie
NatDex: GlalieGoesBoom vs Betticus IV
SS: pyu vs Glory
PokeAAA: hida vs Baddy
Draft: Gwanian vs ThinkingSceptile
 
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9-10 because all of the zards I predicted to win decided to fold... let's hope they fold again!

:kartana: Slashing Leaves (3) vs (7) Meowing Meowstics :meowstic:
SV: reversoral vs lepton
Reversoral is better clicker but he is not showing up with a better team, and modern AAA is won in builder
SV: Steven Stone 007 vs Blaze
Blaze is better
SV: Fluore vs Nakoruru_XD
I don't see fluore turning this up all the way
UU: AM vs Hiusi guy
All AM does is load trolls
Ubers: Codename C.A.T vs Fragments
Fragments is the ultimate game seller, if cat doesn't roll garbage mu I'm feeling her win
Doubles: sleepyfwog vs Clem
The 2-3 from sleepy will be one of the better records on this team
NatDex: damflame 3 vs Kinetic
Kinetic's only win has been boring his opponent into quitting, something damflame won't do
SS: QT vs GhastlyPixie
Pix has been loading strong stuff here
PokeAAA: Ducky vs Miss Crisis
Ducky's clicks & teams are better
Draft: Maxomega vs Wheaty
Wheaty's been quite powerful in draft and is also a master of upper skill, but it's a tough bold

:cosmog: Stallmaxxing Cosmoggs (6) vs (4) Aerial Acrobatic Archeops :archeops:
SV: Mindnight vs rarre
Mind is good at convincing his opponents to sell
SV: spell vs seraphz
Spell will load stall
SV: matte vs jackuzzler
Matte will probably x-0 for fun
UU: Osake vs Itoshiflwr
Itoshi got extremely bailed last game
Ubers: Pokemh vs Fc
Tough bold, fc gets the edge due to upper skill mastery
Doubles: Alexw vs Primmie
Alex has been showing up in dubs, but tough bold bc nanako is pretty good
NatDex: GlalieGoesBoom vs Betticus IV L Lawliet
Glalie click gaps by a good amount
SS: pyu vs Glory
Glory has a bit of an edge for me
PokeAAA: Velcroc hida vs Baddy
Hida's supposed to be here but it doesn't change my predict
Draft: Gwanian vs ThinkingSceptile
Cosmogs draft slot has been absent
 
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AAAPL IV Team Playoffs Qualifying Requirements
Note: All use of "OR" and "/" means "AND/OR" (inclusive or). Exclusive or will be used as "one of".
Note2: DNQ = Do Not Qualify, X+ means at least X
Note3: Using something like X+ wins means just their wins in their matchup, while X+ more wins means compared to the team being qualified (e.g. For X's analysis, Y 2+ more wins means Y at least 2 more wins than X, not necessarily paired vs each other)
Current Standings: W-T-L (Score) | Diff
:Archeops:: 3-1-0 (7) | 14
:Eevee: 2-1-1 (5) | 6
:Cosmog: 2-1-1 (5) | 1
:Meowstic: 1-2-1 (3) | -1
:Charizard: 1-2-1 (3) | -6
:Kartana: 0-3-1 (1) | -14

The guaranteed qualification threshold right now is 6 per usual 6 team 4 into playoffs setups where every team has at least 1 point.

:Archeops:
Have secured PO qualification, first seed not guaranteed but pretty likely
:Eevee:
Eevees are in a pretty good spot since they have good differential, and also play one of their competitors and thus can control their own fate well.
Win - Qualify.

Tie - Qualify.

Lose - Losing can put them behind both 3 pters. Thus, DNQ if all of:
:Charizard: Win 9-1 or more, :Meowstic: Win with 4+ more wins, :Cosmog: Win/Tie/Lose with 3+ more wins (e.g. 4-6 vs 1-9)
Tiebreak with:
:Charizard: Win 8-2, if :Meowstic: Win with 4+ more wins and :Cosmog: Win/Tie/Lose with 3+ more wins
:Cosmog:
Cosmoggs are in an interesting spot, since two of their competitors play each other and only very specific cases allow both to pass them.
Win - Qualify.

Tie - Qualify.

Lose - To not qualify they would need to be passed by both :Eevee: and :Charizard: (and :Meowstic:), which is very specific. DNQ if all of:
:Meowstic: Win and for each possible result of :Cosmog::
4-6: :Eevee: vs :Charizard: is exactly 2-8
3-7: :Eevee: vs :Charizard: is 3-7, 2-8, or 1-9
2-8 or worse: :Eevee: lose vs :Charizard:
:Meowstic:
Meowstics directly play a team that can pass them, and would need a disastrous week to be passed. Their differential is also decent to work with.
Win - Winning puts them ahead of :Kartana:, so they just need to be higher than any of the other 3 teams. Similar to Cosmoggs, two competitors play each other, but it is impossible for both to pass. So they guarantee qualify.

Tie - Tying requires being higher than :Charizard:, thus they can only qualify if :Charizard: Tie/Lose.

Lose - They need to be higher than both :Charizard: and :Kartana:, due to differentials, :Charizard: passing differential while losing is only possible if :Kartana: also pass, thus DNQ if any of:
:Meowstic: vs :Kartana: 1-9 or 0-10
:Charizard: Win/Tie (Lose still requires above condition)
:Charizard:
Win - Winning puts them ahead of :Kartana:, so they just need to be higher than any of the other 3 teams. Simplest to consider for each possibility:
10-0/9-1: Qualify
8-2: Tiebreak with :Eevee: if :Cosmog: Win/Tie and :Meowstic: Win
7-3: DNQ if :Cosmog: Win/Tie/Lose 4-6 and :Meowstic: Win
6-4: DNQ if :Cosmog: Win/Tie/Lose 4-6 or 3-7 and :Meowstic: Win

Tie - Tying requires being higher than :Meowstic:, thus they can only qualify if :Meowstic: Lose.

Lose - Remarkably, it was almost possible to qualify even with a loss, but no. A loss puts differential at best -8, while :Meowstic: and :Kartana: have combined -15, and so one of them will pass guaranteed. DNQ.
:Kartana:
Win - They need to pass both 3 pters, passing :Meowstic: requires winning 10-0/9-1, and such results would guarantee passing :Charizard: if they Lose. Thus they need both of:
:Meowstic: vs :Kartana: 1-9 or 0-10
:Charizard: Lose

Tie - DNQ.

Lose - DNQ.
 
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