just thought id make this in advance. let the games begin
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American Politics
- Thread starter vonFiedler
- Start date
Im ready for the shit show. Trump 2020
Also, it may be a fun idea to post electoral map predictions. 270towin is a pretty good one
Edit: I made macaroni art https://www.270towin.com/maps/Ol83J
Rationale - I think this election will be historically close no matter how you spin it. I don't think Kamala Harris will do Joe Biden many favors when it comes to swing states from last election (because she is by no means moderate, and I feel her stance on abolishing private insurance and the green new deal will hurt the campaign), not to mention there are some serious concerns with Biden's mental health. I think Covid will complicate things for Trump because the economy has taken a dip, and the US has over 5 million cases. The recent protests/general feel of chaos also does not help things. In terms how I categorized important states, polls show Florida and North Carolina especially to be significantly close. I think Trump will carry them both based on precedent of the last election, but they're definitely competitive. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania I also think will be very close. I gave Biden the edge on Michigan and Pennsylvania because he generally has a better blue collar appeal (but to be truthful, I think Kamala will definitely complicate that look). Wisconsin, on the other hand, had some bellweather elections earlier in the year that appear to be beneficial for the Trump campaign. This will be incredibly close though, no doubt. Other important things to note about this prediction includes Arizona being much closer to lean/tilt compared to the last two elections, and Maine's 2nd district is in the lean column. New Hampshire was razor-thin last time, and I believe it'll remain in play for either candidate, while I put Minnesota as tilt because of the recent protests (this one I could be wrong but I think Trump will make it closer than the previous election).
Tl;Dr Trump wins with 270, Biden with 268. Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and possibly Minnesota will all be very close and could each be within tossup/tilt range.
Also, it may be a fun idea to post electoral map predictions. 270towin is a pretty good one
Edit: I made macaroni art https://www.270towin.com/maps/Ol83J
Rationale - I think this election will be historically close no matter how you spin it. I don't think Kamala Harris will do Joe Biden many favors when it comes to swing states from last election (because she is by no means moderate, and I feel her stance on abolishing private insurance and the green new deal will hurt the campaign), not to mention there are some serious concerns with Biden's mental health. I think Covid will complicate things for Trump because the economy has taken a dip, and the US has over 5 million cases. The recent protests/general feel of chaos also does not help things. In terms how I categorized important states, polls show Florida and North Carolina especially to be significantly close. I think Trump will carry them both based on precedent of the last election, but they're definitely competitive. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania I also think will be very close. I gave Biden the edge on Michigan and Pennsylvania because he generally has a better blue collar appeal (but to be truthful, I think Kamala will definitely complicate that look). Wisconsin, on the other hand, had some bellweather elections earlier in the year that appear to be beneficial for the Trump campaign. This will be incredibly close though, no doubt. Other important things to note about this prediction includes Arizona being much closer to lean/tilt compared to the last two elections, and Maine's 2nd district is in the lean column. New Hampshire was razor-thin last time, and I believe it'll remain in play for either candidate, while I put Minnesota as tilt because of the recent protests (this one I could be wrong but I think Trump will make it closer than the previous election).
Tl;Dr Trump wins with 270, Biden with 268. Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and possibly Minnesota will all be very close and could each be within tossup/tilt range.
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If theres one good thing about this matchup, it would be the debates. closed captioning just reading [unintelligible] for minutes at a time
can't wait to vote for some combination of 2 out of 4 of the worst people on earth to represent me internationally and decide upon sweeping uses of our society's collective efforts to inevitably just make it so that Rich McGuy from Goldman Sach's incubator only has to pay 23% effective taxes on his $1.6m a year income rather than 25% and then have this policy sold back to me as some massive win for the working class as the vast majority of my clientele wonders how they're supposed to follow my advice to invest weekly from their paycheck on their 34k a year salary that involves backbreaking work
Has America imploded yet cus the rest of the world is getting real tired of this
The last thread last thread had some of the genuily worst takes/opinions ive ever saw on a screen and basically consisted of Chou posting 5 pages worth of essays every Monday, Mike fighting with everyone for no particular reason, some interesting discussion every 20 pages or so and most ppl just posting stuff that twitter recommended them.
I sincerely hope this thread will be buried quickly, or that a swift death through nuclear annihilation will end us all before it this thread gets big.
Have a nice Wednesday everyone.
I sincerely hope this thread will be buried quickly, or that a swift death through nuclear annihilation will end us all before it this thread gets big.
Have a nice Wednesday everyone.
Im glad we agree my governor is a dumbass
but that's the best part
I'm genuinely curious to hear: what makes you support Trump despite 1) his belief climate change is a hoax and 2) the fact his response to Covid has led the US to become far and away the world leader in deaths (currently standing at 167,000), given the importance of these two issues on a global scale?
i feel like a lot of people here would benefit from the handy 'ignore' function
it's not perfect but my temptation to respond to bad-faith posters is pretty low after realizing it exists. also like immediately after i ignored mikedawg he got banned, so. it might be a magic button is all i'm saying.
anyway i'm not voting for either of these people
it's not perfect but my temptation to respond to bad-faith posters is pretty low after realizing it exists. also like immediately after i ignored mikedawg he got banned, so. it might be a magic button is all i'm saying.
anyway i'm not voting for either of these people
Sure.
1. Idc about that given he hasn't worsened climate change in any significant ways (btw, despite pulling out of the Paris Climate Accord, the US is still well ahead in its efforts compared to other countries. It was not a good agreement to he general).
2. Its not smart to look at raw numbers for covid, because the US also has a very large population. If you pay attention to deaths per million, the US is not doing bad by any means. A pretty big fraction of the deaths happened in New York as it was (because Cuomo thought itd be great policy to shove old people with covid back into nursing homes, despite being the population most vulernable to the disease).
Now answer me this:
Why the fuck are you planning on voting for someone whose not even sentient? Seriously, the dude is a walking corpse. And do you feel its fair he debates Trump, or stay in his basement?
Been just vibing to this. Excited for our first ever cop president!
I'm actually surprised because it does show the U.S. at a level on par with several countries (France, Brazil) and slightly below Spain and Italy in terms of COVID deaths per million.
However, a difference is that cases in the U.S. and Brazil continue to explode and show no signs of stopping, while many European countries who initially had high death tolls mostly have the disease under control.
Someone get me a cigarette, I feel like now's a good time to start smoking
On a serious note, it's clear to me that Joe Biden is mainly going to benefit from Trump's disastrous response to COVID-19 with Trump not taking it seriously and Trump fighting efforts to expand vote by mail (PSA: Complaints of potential for voter fraud are always used as an excuse to push for policies that disenfranchise often Democratic-leaning voters and never due to actual concerns about actual voter fraud), though I don't think having a former State AG as your running mate is the way to capitalize on Trump's horrific response to the BLM protests. All in all, this is one hot mess of an election and if Biden wins, it's going to be because Trump's been so bad, and not because Biden is good.
On a serious note, it's clear to me that Joe Biden is mainly going to benefit from Trump's disastrous response to COVID-19 with Trump not taking it seriously and Trump fighting efforts to expand vote by mail (PSA: Complaints of potential for voter fraud are always used as an excuse to push for policies that disenfranchise often Democratic-leaning voters and never due to actual concerns about actual voter fraud), though I don't think having a former State AG as your running mate is the way to capitalize on Trump's horrific response to the BLM protests. All in all, this is one hot mess of an election and if Biden wins, it's going to be because Trump's been so bad, and not because Biden is good.
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But climate change is too big to simply "not worsen." Action needs to be taken, and now. Another four years of basically pretending it doesn't exist cannot happen, and there is a world of difference between the independent efforts of various states and a concentrated effort led by the President. Do you agree with that?
vonFiedler already covered this
That's funny, because Trump himself isn't too coherent, stumbling over his words and embarrassing himself in interviews left and right ("the US is lower than the world" lol). He's pretty famously unhealthy, too; overweight, famously addicted to fast food, struggling to drink water, barely being able to walk down a ramp. So, I don't think he has any particular great advantage over Biden in terms of health.
However, that's not the deciding factor. I'm no great fan of Joe Biden and don't love having to choose him at all, but given that Trump is a threat to US democracy (his descent into undisguised fascism is undeniable) and world safety as a whole, it's not even a choice. Oh, and Biden's VP is about a million times better than Mike Pence.
I don't care about any debates, either, given Trump's well-known disregard for facts and preference for name-calling. No amount of verbal bullying and humiliation (which is what a Trump debate is) will change anything about Trump's actions, and those are what's important.
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The total number of deaths per million is an important statistic, but if we want to talk about how well a country is currently doing at bending the curve the same statistic considered over time is in my opinion much more useful. The graph linked above could mislead someone into thinking that we aren't doing that much worse than other developed countries (which was in no way intentional on the part of vonFielder) in terms of death, but I think that the full statistics on death from the same site (they start about halfway down, you have to scroll a bit) show very clearly that the US is currently handling this pandemic far worse than other comparable highly developed countries by pretty much every metric with the exception of testing. The graph below is probably the most useful visually when considering current deaths:
Many's interpretation is basically correct, but I just wanted to be as clear as possible and back it with data.
Many's interpretation is basically correct, but I just wanted to be as clear as possible and back it with data.
Did you pay attention to the part I said about New York alone contributing quite a bit, because they completely botched their covid response? How about the fact that less than 600 deaths per million is still a relatively low death rate. You should also scroll over Peru, Chile, Spain, England, Italy, all of which have worse death rates than the United States acording to your own source. I would argue at least most of those are pretty developed countries. You also genuinely believe China only has 3.26 deaths per million? Something doesn't sound fishy there?
To me, climate change isn't because I feel its inevitable at this point in time. There are ways to slightly mitigate the effects, but that's not without hemorrhaging the economy (unless you count nuclear energy, but Dems don't like that). Once again, the US is doing better right now than nearly all of the countries still in the Paris Climate Accord, despite backing out of it (because, once again, it was a pretty bad treaty that doesn't really hold anyone, i.e. China, accountable). If you want to save the world here, the US can only do so much; you have bigger fish to fry when it comes to who is likely to make climate change significantly worse.
Really? I'm not saying Trump is a good public speaker (full disclosure he's fucking garbage), but at least the guy is freaking sentient. Have you watched virtually any of Biden's "rallies?" (If you can even call it that). I say this out of genuine concern, he is not with it, at all. Not to mention he's been pretty racist as of late (which I do not understand for the life of me why after a series of national protests, people are seriously tolerating that).
And no, Trump's "descent into undisguised fascism" is deniable. So deniable in fact that he pales in comparison to many of the far leftists in our government who are absolutely autocratic and authoritarian nut-heads. If you genuinely believe Trump is the worst threat to democracy, you wouldn't know fascism even if it hit you in the face (especially considering the fact that Obama unconstitutionaly abused his executive office far more exceedingly than Trump has, especially if you compare executive orders. I'd pay attention to his thoughts on DACA before he signed the order on it). Also, Biden's VP is worse than Mike Pence. By a long shot. Kamala is an inauthentic, mechanical, distasteful establishment democrat who really does not help Biden in any particular swing state, and she supports the abolishment of private insurance and the green new deal (also issues that worsen Biden's chances in said swing states). She does not help with Biden's image of "back to normalcy" or "moderateness." She will flip positions in a heartbeat that will benefit her politically, and the few issues she has't changed are radical, to say the least. She also does not help with the Black vote, given despite starting as a clear fruntrunner in the primaries, she flopped before the first primary even happened. Hell, she could only garner maybe 7% support from her own home state of California. That's how bad she was, and still is. At least Pence was able to help Trump with the religious vote.
So glad to know your for precedent and that you're not biased in any way (because you and I both know that Biden will likely struggling getting a hold of himself in a debate setting let alone). It shouldn't be an issue if Trump tries to insult, because wouldn't it help poll numbers if you're perceived as the bigger person able to bite back? That's not an excuse to not debate. The American people deserve to hear from their candidates and how they compose themselves on certain hot issues.