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NOC Amnesiac Mafia Game 1 - N2

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Enjoy your resign lol

Literally Jumpluff isn't bothering to make arguments just straight OMGUS

Anyway the only problem with that mayor test Ditto is that I could vig and aska mafia, otherwise I'd definitely do that. The issue is that you could be mayor me vig and aska mafia; IMO what we should do is have only me and ditto Jumpluff and only aska on no lynch, that way we guarantee we either get the mayor for sure or know that it's one of me or ditto

Oh good more people ignoring arguments because I'm 'condescending'
 
Look. We are like, one piece of information away from having a completely solved game. Suppose night goes horribly, and we lose, like, our omniguard or some shit. Then there are 3 mafia to 5 villagers. *We could even no lynch tomorrow as well, just for information*.

We can argue today about who's scummy, but it doesn't fucking matter. That's not what this game is even about. We need one more night of information to have a solved game. The only thing we should be discussing right now are who we want people to target, such that we will get the most information from those targets.
 
also frankly i agree with aska, i think we should no lynch

numberswise we're in the same position as d1 and we decided no lynch was a good idea then
 
UncleSam said:
Enjoy your resign lol

Literally Jumpluff isn't bothering to make arguments just straight OMGUS

Anyway the only problem with that mayor test Ditto is that I could vig and aska mafia, otherwise I'd definitely do that. The issue is that you could be mayor me vig and aska mafia; IMO what we should do is have only me and ditto Jumpluff and only aska on no lynch, that way we guarantee we either get the mayor for sure or know that it's one of me or ditto

Oh good more people ignoring arguments because I'm 'condescending'
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No it's not omgus and I said nothing about your tone, although now you're being literally such an obnoxious person I will probably just not play with you in the future

Although I'm not sure you know what omgus means, omgus would be if I said you're scum for calling me scum

I never did

Pot
Kettle

If you can't be bothered to read my posts I'm not reiterating them.
 
sam your tone is often very "i'm right and if you don't agree with my logic you're either incredibly dumb or incredibly scum"

i appreciate how well-thought out your points are but when you include comments such as

Please fucking Christ get your heads out of your asses people
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it makes me want to not listen
 
askaninjask said:
Look. We are like, one piece of information away from having a completely solved game. Suppose night goes horribly, and we lose, like, our omniguard or some shit. Then there are 3 mafia to 5 villagers. *We could even no lynch tomorrow as well, just for information*.

We can argue today about who's scummy, but it doesn't fucking matter. That's not what this game is even about. We need one more night of information to have a solved game. The only thing we should be discussing right now are who we want people to target, such that we will get the most information from those targets.
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"

Voting anything but nl or a hard solved scum today is bad and I have said that from the beginning

I do not have time to run scenarios unfortunately so I really will stop posting now.
 
What mafia would kill me? By that same logic what omni would protect me? (since rssp1 knew his role PM night 0 (I guess we haven't had explicit confirmation of this other than him never responding to the allegatoins Walrein could be psych))

When was Flyhn-Yeti "99% PT-Watcher" before we all claimed targets? Yeti's a smoggirl that brings all the targets to the yard, I personally was expecting there to be a real watcher and until massclaim thought that was jumpluff for reasons like 5 pages ago. For that matter, I see a lot of realistic kills outside of the townier members simply as an effort to dodge omniguarding and I wasn't planning on trying to predict that NK to solve roles.

Really not sure how to feel about Sam-pluff. Sam kinda took a backseat for a while and then just starts pushing this. One the one hand I dislike all the assumption that he isn't the Don and the assumptions about where NKs go. On the other I never liked pluff's hook callout pre targets and in running through a lot of scenarios jumpluff turns up scum. I don't think I'm comfortable enough to lynch either and this is MYLO (worst case) not LYLO (worst case)

vote no lynch

I'll keep checking in in case some other plan turns up. I'm also happy with an rssp1 lynch but as mentioned that's a solvable problem for everyone in the future.
 
ok so i just ran through a thing

pluff 100% cannot be:
mayor (due to fail result)
omni (due to fail result combined with nokill)
psych (must be me or blazade)
pt (must be flyhn)
watcher (must be yeti)

this leaves pluff with vig or the 3 scum roles left. i'll rule out silencer because i think it's very unlikely that pluff would claim hooked unless they knew for sure no one else would turn up a fail result, which they wouldn't have any way of knowing as silencer

however that still means a 66% chance of pluff being scum

i'll toss my hat behind no lynch for now, but if there's a last minute push for pluff i wouldn't be opposed
 
if pluff is vig i have to be psych because otherwise blazade would have psyched them as clean and they would have claimed that ages ago

that would mean blazade has to be either mayor or scum (probably not don, most likely hooker with off chance of silencer)
 
that isn't how statistics work btw

You can't say all scenarios have equal chances

If Walrein picks 50 scenarios where I'm scum assuming everyone told the truth that says nothing because there is a 0% chance everyone told the truth, for example (very exaggerated)

But I guess you guys don't have my pov and I know I'm not lying so

I'm more interested in who is lying here and distorting logic, and in people's reactions

I think Blazade has had a very townie day and Ditto too.
 
Ok no lol

I am not going to let askapluff waste a day that we were granted thanks to the hooker being terrible

It is important that we lynch today because if we lynch today correctly then we just straight win. Even for those of you for whom this isn't obvious, the fact is that wasting this day is ridiculously stupid. We go to a state of stalling and hoping that the watcher gets lucky because that's the only way we get more information than we already have, the scum aren't going to slip up in their target claims at this point now that everything's been analyzed. Literally all we are hoping for at that point is to get lucky and delay having to pick a lynch.

We lynch correctly today and the reason we win is that even if we lose one of the 50/50s later (which there is zero reason to think we will ever resolve with our set of roles), we still win. We can afford to pick wrong between, say, Walrein and Blazade (I know they're not a true 50/50 but I'm just saying) tomorrow if we lynch correctly today. We have to lynch correctly every subsequent day if we no lynch today.

The fact is stalling will probably not get us any additional information. Please think through this. What exactly is supposed to happen after we no lynch? This time around the hooker isn't going to hook jumpluff, jumpluff will be able to kill one of the 100% townies (or they could even just kill me for fucking free because then jumpluff gets lynched tomorrow sure but still have to figure out the other 50/50s later, they've already done their job and stalled the game long enough to make the hook on them not matter).

Please god Walrein Ditto Flyhn askaninjask rssp1 Blazade think through this. There is nothing to be gained from a no lynch, we just lose a villager (and our safety net) in exchange for a 1/4th chance of catching someone. We are still going to have to lynch jumpluff probably on precisely this same evidence at a later point anyway.

We are one point of information away from solving one of the 50/50s, we are one or two points of information away from solving others. We however have no reliable way of getting any additional information on anything because we have no reliable information roles.

40 minutes left
 
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