Welcome to Smogon! Take a moment to read the Introduction to Smogon for a run-down on everything Smogon, and make sure you take some time to read the global rules.
4. While normal setup sweepers aside from Regigigas must be wary of Spectral Thief, Spectral Thief manages to annoy the opposing Contrary Pokemon at best. Unless it's a Mega Mewtwo Y, Spectral Thief won't even do a big amount of damage unless it's from Giratina. This also falls under the same argument as Prankster Haze, because Contrary Pokemon do not need turns to set up again and can passively set up which allows them to break Pokemon trying to steal boosts.
I think your part on Number 4 May be skewed.
Spectral Thief can go on a faster sweeper that outspeeds non-V-Create Contrarians. For example, MMY and Sceptile don’t typically bother with V-Create because they focus on Special Attacks. This means they not only don’t gain any speed, but also don’t gain any defenses.
Spectral Thief also hurts Necrozma, and MMX, not just MMY. This is especially true for MMX who has used Superpower because it only gives the Spectral Thief user more Attack, afterall that +1 Attack is the equivalent of a STAB to their Spectral Thief, and since Giratina has 100 Base Attack, chances are you are probably doing more anyways (Throw in items, or abilities like Life Orb), further unless MMX Spectral Thief’s back, you have +1 Def to better take that hit.
Don’t forget that Misty Terrain Giratina can serve as a soft check for Necrozma (if it hasn’t set up yet- such as switching in Giratina and Necrozma after a double-KO Destiny Bond).
Misty Terrain cuts Draco Meteor in half
Psycho Boost @ +2 and Draco Calcs:
252 SpA Life Orb Necrozma-Ultra Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Giratina in Misty Terrain: 211-250 (41.8 - 49.6%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
+2 252 SpA Life Orb Necrozma-Ultra Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Giratina in Misty Terrain: 421-499 (83.5 - 99%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
+2 252 SpA Life Orb Necrozma-Ultra Psycho Boost vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Giratina: 454-536 (90 - 106.3%) -- 37.5% chance to OHKO after Leftovers recovery
252 SpA Life Orb Necrozma-Ultra Psycho Boost vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Giratina: 227-269 (45 - 53.3%) -- 0.4% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
This means if you Spectral Thief On the turn they Draco Meteor or Psycho Boost you, they lose the boost, and which turns their SpA into a 3HKO, while Giratina can 2HKO them back with Spectral Thief.
Spectral calcs:
252 Atk Giratina Spectral Thief vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Necrozma-Ultra: 200-236 (50.2 - 59.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 Atk Giratina Spectral Thief vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Mewtwo-Mega-X: 194-230 (46.6 - 55.2%) -- 71.1% chance to 2HKO (guaranteed 2HKO if MMX carries Life Orb)
Spectral Thief vs MMY
252 Atk Life Orb Deoxys-Attack Spectral Thief vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Mewtwo-Mega-Y: 322-382 (77.4 - 91.8%) -- 31.3% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock (100% chance if they pack Life Orb)
Deoxys-A+1 from Spectral Thiefing after it used Superpower
+1 252 Atk Life Orb Deoxys-Attack Spectral Thief vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Mewtwo-Mega-X: 385-455 (92.5 - 109.3%) -- 93.8% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock (100% if they pack Life Orb
Further, fast stuff like Pheromosa can 1HKO M-Sceptile, Necrozma, and MMY since they don’t typically use V-Create to gain speed.
I agree with the general argument, but I want to add that I think v-create is really potent on mmy and ultra necrozma since they have really high attack. So they can OHKO stuff like regen solgaleo or registeel without any boost while at the same time being harder to rk with fakespeed or first impression. V-create also allows them to 2hko unaware chansey (who can actually take every move from mmy).
Though yeah it's not common.
Misty terrain giratina is a bitch cause it really messes up my sceptile spam team.
Spectral Thief can go on a faster sweeper that outspeeds non-V-Create Contrarians. For example, MMY and Sceptile don’t typically bother with V-Create because they focus on Special Attacks. This means they not only don’t gain any speed, but also don’t gain any defenses.
That's because they don't need Speed, and gaining Defenses is generally bad. Gaining Defenses would be counter-intuitive on a Pokemon who aims to OHKO their targets without giving them a chance to move. If your opponent can get a Spectral Thief on you when you have boosted Defenses, then you make it that much harder to break past them. These traits make MMY and Sceptile that much more concerning to me than other Contrary Pokemon like MMX. They can get stronger twice as fast (Superpower raises Attack by 1 whereas most Special moves like Psycho/Fleur/Overheat/etc. raise by 2) and because of that they are much harder to check.
Mega Mewtwo X is more easily checked than Mega Mewtwo Y because Mega Mewtwo X relies on hitting opponents super effectively using it's STABs and coverage while building up it's Attack and Special Attack simultaneously over the course of a few turns, whereas Mega Mewtwo Y generally only uses Special Attack boosting moves and gets to the point of where Regenvest Steels struggle to deal with it. In my honest opinion, if Regenvest Steels who are the Pokemon which exist solely because of Mega Mewtwo Y get broken by said Pokemon using Contrary, then I believe that's overpowered. Mega Mewtwo Y is already one of the best Pokemon in the tier which can get easily boosted by STAB Psycho Boost, and whatever gets walled by Psycho Boosts ends up getting obliterated by Fleur Cannon or other coverage moves like Overheat. It doesn't help that Moongeist Beam also prevents any Unaware wall that isn't Yveltal from being able to check Contrary MMY. And even then Yveltal doesn't OHKO Mega Mewtwo Y with Revelation Dance while Mega Mewtwo Y can probably 2HKO Yveltal in return using it's coverage (definitely with Fleur, possibly without Fleur). Moongeist can 2HKO even Unaware Yveltal at +4 while Fleur OHKOs with Stealth Rock damage. Overheat is also a 98% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rocks too.
Also, another issue with Contrary is that anything that could potentially wall Contrary users often just get put to sleep using Lovely Kiss and then they get subsequently knocked out afterwards.
Spectral Thief also hurts Necrozma, and MMX, not just MMY. This is especially true for MMX who has used Superpower because it only gives the Spectral Thief user more Attack, afterall that +1 Attack is the equivalent of a STAB to their Spectral Thief, and since Giratina has 100 Base Attack, chances are you are probably doing more anyways (Throw in items, or abilities like Life Orb), further unless MMX Spectral Thief’s back, you have +1 Def to better take that hit.
The problem with Ultra Necrozma and Mega Mewtwo X is that they're somewhat more bulky than Mega Mewtwo Y is. Mega Mewtwo Y doesn't like taking physical hits with it's somewhat underwhelming 70 Defense. Mega Mewtwo Y is also subsequently 2HKO'd by Spectral Thief by quite a lot of Pokemon who aren't even Ghost type. Ultra Necrozma and Mega Mewtwo X are not 2HKO'd by Spectral Thief by a lot of non-Ghost types. That means they have more turns and more opportunities to break through bulky Pokemon. You won't be able to steal their boosts and stop their momentum if they break past your defenses. Of course, like you said, there's always the opportunity you'll steal an Attack boost from Superpower, but there's no guarantee you'd be able to not get OHKOed by coverage or put to Sleep.
Unless you're Comatose, Magic Bounce, or Misty Terrain, Contrary users just putting you to Sleep is still an issue.
About your points on Spectral Thief damaging the target significantly more as they get more boosts, I should also note that not all Contrary users are weak to Ghost, and that means that the opponent can boost constantly while taking a lot of hits as well. At least with the Psychics you can steal their boosts and hopefully 2HKO them at the same time. Not with mons like Mega Ray or Mega Diancie. While Misty Terrain Giratina serves as a check to Contrary Dragons, there's still the issue of Contrary Psychics and Fairies.
At least with Imposter, Sturdy Shedinja, and other abilities that people complain about, they're mostly one-dimensional and you know exactly what you're going to face at the teambuilder. With Contrary, there's always an air of uncertainty that you will be caught off guard and your opponent can switch in a Pokemon to revenge kill, only to knock your mon out and get +1 Attack or +2 Special Attack the same turn. Then it just snowballs from there a lot of the time.
I'm going to be honest here in that despite what I've said about Contrary, I don't disagree with the opinions about Illusion either, and if others believe Illusion is really a bigger problem than Contrary, I believe that Illusion should be suspected first and foremost.
That's because they don't need Speed, and gaining Defenses is generally bad. Gaining Defenses would be counter-intuitive on a Pokemon who aims to OHKO their targets without giving them a chance to move. If your opponent can get a Spectral Thief on you when you have boosted Defenses, then you make it that much harder to break past them. These traits make MMY and Sceptile that much more concerning to me than other Contrary Pokemon like MMX. They can get stronger twice as fast (Superpower raises Attack by 1 whereas most Special moves like Psycho/Fleur/Overheat/etc. raise by 2) and because of that they are much harder to check.
Mega Mewtwo X is more easily checked than Mega Mewtwo Y because Mega Mewtwo X relies on hitting opponents super effectively using it's STABs and coverage while building up it's Attack and Special Attack simultaneously over the course of a few turns, whereas Mega Mewtwo Y generally only uses Special Attack boosting moves and gets to the point of where Regenvest Steels struggle to deal with it. In my honest opinion, if Regenvest Steels who are the Pokemon which exist solely because of Mega Mewtwo Y get broken by said Pokemon using Contrary, then I believe that's overpowered. Mega Mewtwo Y is already one of the best Pokemon in the tier which can get easily boosted by STAB Psycho Boost, and whatever gets walled by Psycho Boosts ends up getting obliterated by Fleur Cannon or other coverage moves like Overheat. It doesn't help that Moongeist Beam also prevents any Unaware wall that isn't Yveltal from being able to check Contrary MMY. And even then Yveltal doesn't OHKO Mega Mewtwo Y with Revelation Dance while Mega Mewtwo Y can probably 2HKO Yveltal in return using it's coverage (definitely with Fleur, possibly without Fleur). Moongeist can 2HKO even Unaware Yveltal at +4 while Fleur OHKOs with Stealth Rock damage. Overheat is also a 98% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rocks too.
Also, another issue with Contrary is that anything that could potentially wall Contrary users often just get put to sleep using Lovely Kiss and then they get subsequently knocked out afterwards.
The problem with Ultra Necrozma and Mega Mewtwo X is that they're somewhat more bulky than Mega Mewtwo Y is. Mega Mewtwo Y doesn't like taking physical hits with it's somewhat underwhelming 70 Defense. Mega Mewtwo Y is also subsequently 2HKO'd by Spectral Thief by quite a lot of Pokemon who aren't even Ghost type. Ultra Necrozma and Mega Mewtwo X are not 2HKO'd by Spectral Thief by a lot of non-Ghost types. That means they have more turns and more opportunities to break through bulky Pokemon. You won't be able to steal their boosts and stop their momentum if they break past your defenses. Of course, like you said, there's always the opportunity you'll steal an Attack boost from Superpower, but there's no guarantee you'd be able to not get OHKOed by coverage or put to Sleep.
Unless you're Comatose, Magic Bounce, or Misty Terrain, Contrary users just putting you to Sleep is still an issue.
About your points on Spectral Thief damaging the target significantly more as they get more boosts, I should also note that not all Contrary users are weak to Ghost, and that means that the opponent can boost constantly while taking a lot of hits as well. At least with the Psychics you can steal their boosts and hopefully 2HKO them at the same time. Not with mons like Mega Ray or Mega Diancie. While Misty Terrain Giratina serves as a check to Contrary Dragons, there's still the issue of Contrary Psychics and Fairies.
At least with Imposter, Sturdy Shedinja, and other abilities that people complain about, they're mostly one-dimensional and you know exactly what you're going to face at the teambuilder. With Contrary, there's always an air of uncertainty that you will be caught off guard and your opponent can switch in a Pokemon to revenge kill, only to knock your mon out and get +1 Attack or +2 Special Attack the same turn. Then it just snowballs from there a lot of the time.
I'm going to be honest here in that despite what I've said about Contrary, I don't disagree with the opinions about Illusion either, and if others believe Illusion is really a bigger problem than Contrary, I believe that Illusion should be suspected first and foremost.
I didn’t get a chance to read through your full post, but when I do tomorrow I will reply.
I wanted to post this as an actual 100% Counter to MMY’s Life Orb Contrarian Sets (Both the Spore and Moongeist versions):
Unaware Meloetta:
Immune to Moongeist, Resistant to Psychic, neutral to Fleur Cannon and Overheat:
252 SpA Life Orb Mewtwo-Mega-Y Fleur Cannon vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Meloetta: 152-179 (37.6 - 44.3%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
*You could also throw Safety Goggles in case of the Spore MMY Contrarians, and it’s still a 3HKO;
252 SpA Life Orb Mewtwo-Mega-Y Fleur Cannon vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Meloetta: 152-179 (37.6 - 44.3%) -- 2.3% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock
As for Assault Vest:
252 SpA Life Orb Contrary Mewtwo-Mega-Y Fleur Cannon over 2 turns vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Assault Vest Meloetta: 302-358 (74.7 - 88.6%) -- not a KO
Even with Stealth Rocks!
252 SpA Life Orb Mewtwo-Mega-Y Fleur Cannon vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Assault Vest Meloetta: 101-120 (25 - 29.7%) -- 0.8% chance to 3HKO after Stealth Rock
A 3HKO each time and that’s without using Spectral Thief or anything to negate the SpA boosts on those RegenVest sets.
As for Necrozma-U:
252 SpA Life Orb Necrozma-Ultra Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Meloetta: 203-239 (50.2 - 59.1%) -- 76.6% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
Just give her a Protect move like Spiky Shield, which is the equivalent of getting 12.5% health back (like Grassy Terrain)-
252 SpA Life Orb Necrozma-Ultra Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Meloetta: 203-239 (50.2 - 59.1%) -- 23% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery and Grassy Terrain recovery
If all else fails, just spam Spiky Shield with Leftovers and Shore Up as they can’t break your Unaware, allowing you to stall them into Life Orb Recoil... so unless it packs Photon Geyser, which is still resisted and will hit off their SpA it isn’t going anywhere.
Gengar-M, Pheromosa, Greninja-Ash (Mega Launcher) etc can also check non-V-Create Necrozma-U.
(Meloetta does need to be mindful of Superpower/V-Create Necrozma-U variants, but most are Special oriented, but nevertheless:
252 Atk Necrozma-Ultra V-create vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Meloetta: 221-260 (54.7 - 64.3%) -- 94.1% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery and Grassy Terrain recovery
Spectral Thief can provide it the Defense from V-Create and turn it into a 3HKO combined with Spiky Shield and Leftovers:
252 Atk Necrozma-Ultra V-create vs. +1 252 HP / 252 Def Meloetta: 147-174 (36.3 - 43%) -- 6.3% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery and Grassy Terrain recovery
Thus 64.3% + 43% = 107.3 - 12.5% healing with Leftovers + Spiky Shield = 94.8% Max Damage over 2 turns, or a guaranteed 3HKO
Honestly if you're at the point of where you're suggesting I run Grassy Terrain with a non-viable Pokemon then I think that further adds to my argument against Contrary. Meloetta might be an exceptional check to Mega Mewtwo Y and a shaky check to Ultra Necrozma, but... Meloetta doesn't do anything else at all. It's an objectively bad Pokemon. I mean, the best thing it'll do is set up Rocks and Baton Pass aside from stealing boosts using Spectral Thief. Also, in theory while it's true that Meloetta can stall out Ultra Necrozma, in practice what's more than likely going to happen is Ultra Necrozma will end up critting you after a while and then you are in big trouble.
Meloetta is only really useful because of it's immunity to Ghost and resistance to Psychic. But at that point, you have to question whether it's worth putting it on your team because it only counters two Pokemon.
In all honesty, Poison Heal Mega Audino likely does everything Meloetta can but better, and even then it might not be able to consistently beat Contrary mons.
Honestly if you're at the point of where you're suggesting I run Grassy Terrain with a non-viable Pokemon then I think that further adds to my argument against Contrary.
He was using Grassy terrain to represent leftovers over 2 turns since he is saying you should run protect clone which equates to the same amount of extra healing.
As for meloetta it is very niche but not entirely unviable, but it isn't exactly a common spammable mon you should use as an example as a reasonable counter, everything has counters and if the only counter is unaware meloetta then whatever you're talking about is probably broken, but it is an interesting and often overlooked option (because of its rarity). Might even ask about getting a Melo set in the setpedia now that you mention it.
There's also this:
252 Atk Life Orb Mewtwo-Mega-Y V-create vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Meloetta: 265-312 (65.5 - 77.2%)
I don't usually suggest V-Create but it does help to get passed these physically frail unaware mons (I'm looking at you Chansey).
He was using Grassy terrain to represent leftovers over 2 turns since he is saying you should run protect clone which equates to the same amount of extra healing.
As for meloetta it is very niche but not entirely unviable, but it isn't exactly a common spammable mon you should use as an example as a reasonable counter, everything has counters and if the only counter is unaware meloetta then whatever you're talking about is probably broken, but it is an interesting and often overlooked option (because of its rarity). Might even ask about getting a Melo set in the setpedia now that you mention it.
There's also this:
252 Atk Life Orb Mewtwo-Mega-Y V-create vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Meloetta: 265-312 (65.5 - 77.2%)
I don't usually suggest V-Create but it does help to get passed these physically frail unaware mons (I'm looking at you Chansey).
Assuming Hasty (bc why would they use a Naive Nature in its higher SpD- helps it face Imposter) if we use Baneful Bunker the results work against MMY because Meloetta’s passive damage obligates MMY to either switch or take itself out in order to defeat her:
252 Atk Meloetta Spectral Thief vs. 252 HP / 252- Def Mewtwo-Mega-Y: 152-180 (36.5 - 43.2%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
Turn 1: V-Create from -Mega-Y deals is Blocked by Baneful Bunker. Poison deals 12.5% Damage to MMY.
Turn 2. V-Create deals 77.2% damage to Meloetta. Spectral Thief deals 36.5%. Poison damage + Life Orb recoil (22.5%) adds to = 59% this turn. Add 12.5% poison from the previous turn and MMY took 71.5%.
Turn 3. Baneful Bunker blocks any Attack while MMY takes 12.5%. Now in total MMY took 83.5%.
Turn 4. MMY goes for the 2HKO and used V-Create, while Meleotta hopes for a 2nd Baneful Bunker in a row. Let’s say that fails, MMY still takes Life Orb recoil- pushing total damage to 93.5%, and then takes poison at the end of the turn making it 106%
P.S. Even if they don’t know it has Unaware, I would assume that they would use V-Create because it will deal more damage off of Meloetta’s lower Def, and just the sheer Base power of the move. Plus, they probably predict Spectral Thief or a Simple Geomancy/Smash Set with Stored Power so they won’t want to boost their offense.
Again, not a Counter, but most certainly she will force that tie and obligate a “Switch or feint” Predicament for the player because She can’t switch into, but she can come in via slow pivot, etc.
I’ll address the other post later (I’m on my iPhone and will reply later to the other poster).
Boomburst deals decent damage, but Baton Pass has its obvious uses.
Imposterproof from Spectral Thief permits Meloetta to safely Baton Pass, and Strength Sap used on Unaware Meloetta will boost a Contrarian’s Attack Power but heal you more HP at no cost to Meloetta.
Any physical attacker that uses Photon Geyser, such MMX, without Contrary or Magic Bounce will end up using their Special Attack since their Attack is lowered, effectively allowing Meloetta to tank hits from its better Special Defense. So they should think carefully before they think they can bypass Unaware.
I’m a bit unclear how Unaware works with Strength Sap, but if it allows you to continuously heal off the original base Attack stat lowered, then the heal can be often be better than Shore Up (I.e. if the foe has > 202 Attack). On Contrary users it can allow you to heal more each turn. 0 IV, 0 EV 100 Base Attack Pokemon like Giratina have 205 Attack with a neutral nature, so even that is better than using Shore Up. Just beware of Magic Bounce and Substitute blocking the heal.
Also, if that is the case the Strength Sap may allow it to stall any 2HKO Contrarian User because it will heal more HP each turn.
He was using Grassy terrain to represent leftovers over 2 turns since he is saying you should run protect clone which equates to the same amount of extra healing.
As for meloetta it is very niche but not entirely unviable, but it isn't exactly a common spammable mon you should use as an example as a reasonable counter, everything has counters and if the only counter is unaware meloetta then whatever you're talking about is probably broken, but it is an interesting and often overlooked option (because of its rarity). Might even ask about getting a Melo set in the setpedia now that you mention it.
I know he was trying to mention Protect, but the way I worded my post just made it look like the point went way over my head. Regardless there's still the issue of crits and one of the big issues with Meloetta is that PP stalling a strong Pokemon that would otherwise 6-0 your team is extremely dangerous.
That's what I was trying to imply. Regardless I'm of the opinion that Meloetta is so niche that running a check to Mega Mewtwo Y/Ultra Necrozma like Regenvesters would probably make your team more solid. Meloetta looks like it would only be used by virtue of it's typing and greater overall HP/Special Defense combo than Oranguru. It's Special Attack is acceptable but as it's moveset would be cramped, it has to choose between running Boomburst or Spectral Thief. Since it's base 90 Speed, it could possibly run Core Enforcer as well. But then you need recovery and Protect, and most likely you're going to want the 4th move to be a utility move like Baton Pass like OM suggested. But even with Baton Pass, there's probably not a good chance you'll get the opportunity to steal the boosts then pass them because every turn you're getting nuked by an extremely high base power move.
Also, OM did mention Strength Sap, but if I'm going to be perfectly honest, I wouldn't run Spectral/Strength Sap/Bunker/Baton Pass. I would run Spectral/Strength Sap/Milk Drink|Boomburst/Baton Pass. I just tested for you and discovered that Unaware does not affect Strength Sap in any way. Granted, this could be a bug, but that is how it currently is on the sim as of this time. This means that Strength Sap can hit the Contrary target, raise their Attack, and heal even more from it. However, as a drawback, the healing against non-Contrary targets is questionable at best considering Magic Bounce and the like are common.
I still think even despite Meloetta's strengths, it's still a shaky counter to Mega Mewtwo Y and Ultra Necrozma, and even with the tremendous healing, there's always the possibility of being critted.
That's because they don't need Speed, and gaining Defenses is generally bad. Gaining Defenses would be counter-intuitive on a Pokemon who aims to OHKO their targets without giving them a chance to move. If your opponent can get a Spectral Thief on you when you have boosted Defenses, then you make it that much harder to break past them. These traits make MMY and Sceptile that much more concerning to me than other Contrary Pokemon like MMX. They can get stronger twice as fast (Superpower raises Attack by 1 whereas most Special moves like Psycho/Fleur/Overheat/etc. raise by 2) and because of that they are much harder to check.
I think everyone is aware of that. My point is, if you have something faster, it'll always be faster. Thus, a hard check, like Pheromosa, is a great way to stop their sweep- period.
Mega Mewtwo X is more easily checked than Mega Mewtwo Y because Mega Mewtwo X relies on hitting opponents super effectively using it's STABs and coverage while building up it's Attack and Special Attack simultaneously over the course of a few turns, whereas Mega Mewtwo Y generally only uses Special Attack boosting moves and gets to the point of where Regenvest Steels struggle to deal with it. In my honest opinion, if Regenvest Steels who are the Pokemon which exist solely because of Mega Mewtwo Y get broken by said Pokemon using Contrary, then I believe that's overpowered. Mega Mewtwo Y is already one of the best Pokemon in the tier which can get easily boosted by STAB Psycho Boost, and whatever gets walled by Psycho Boosts ends up getting obliterated by Fleur Cannon or other coverage moves like Overheat. It doesn't help that Moongeist Beam also prevents any Unaware wall that isn't Yveltal from being able to check Contrary MMY. And even then Yveltal doesn't OHKO Mega Mewtwo Y with Revelation Dance while Mega Mewtwo Y can probably 2HKO Yveltal in return using it's coverage (definitely with Fleur, possibly without Fleur). Moongeist can 2HKO even Unaware Yveltal at +4 while Fleur OHKOs with Stealth Rock damage. Overheat is also a 98% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rocks too.
Yes, but what about Unaware Dialga, it can check MMY? Grassy Terrain = Leftovers + Baneful Bunker stall
I included V-Create and Fleur Cannon because Willdbeast mentioned V-Create. Pick your nature, you have a gauranteed 3HKO, and a 93.4% 3HKO on Dialga on its not boosted defense.
Dialga is actually on the VR list, and Unaware with great typing lets it survive MMY's Moongeist at +2 (a 2HKO), meaning if Dialga is a check, not a counter, then if it can safely comes-in (thanks to a Steel typing, even SR wont ruin this survival), and just Spectral Thief away the Moongeist Beam boost. *And since they likely wont assume Unaware, they will likely go for Overheat or Fleur Cannon, rather than Moongeist Beam, which means their +2 Overheat does less than their +2 Moongeist Beam thanks to Unaware.
Calcs:
+2 252 SpA Life Orb Mewtwo-Mega-Y Moongeist Beam vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Dialga: 277-326 (68.5 - 80.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery and Grassy Terrain recovery AFTER Spectral Thief on the turn they attack
252 SpA Life Orb Mewtwo-Mega-Y Moongeist Beam vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Dialga: 139-164 (34.4 - 40.5%) -- guaranteed 4HKO after Leftovers recovery and Grassy Terrain recovery (Take off 12.5% from 40.5% and you have 28% damage after Leftovers+Baneful Bunker)
252 SpA Life Orb Mewtwo-Mega-Y Fleur Cannon vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Dialga: 181-213 (44.8 - 52.7%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery and Grassy Terrain recovery
252 Atk Life Orb Mewtwo-Mega-Y V-create vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Unaware Dialga: 198-233 (49 - 57.6%) -- 6.6% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery and Grassy Terrain recovery
If +Def Nature: +2 252 SpA Life Orb Mewtwo-Mega-Y Moongeist Beam vs. 252 HP / 252 SpD Dialga: 303-357 (75 - 88.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery and Grassy Terrain recovery
252 SpA Life Orb Mewtwo-Mega-Y Fleur Cannon vs. 252 HP / 252 SpD Unaware Dialga: 198-233 (49 - 57.6%) -- 6.6% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery and Grassy Terrain recovery
252 Atk Life Orb Mewtwo-Mega-Y V-create vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Dialga: 181-213 (44.8 - 52.7%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery and Grassy Terrain recovery
Spectral Thief Calcs:
252 Atk Dialga Spectral Thief vs. 252 HP / 252- Def Mewtwo-Mega-Y: 204-242 (49 - 58.1%) -- 100% chance to 2HKO after MMY's Life Orb Recoil
Dialga, can Spectral Thief away boosts,, and survive all of MMY's attacks.
Also, another issue with Contrary is that anything that could potentially wall Contrary users often just get put to sleep using Lovely Kiss and then they get subsequently knocked out afterwards.
The problem with Ultra Necrozma and Mega Mewtwo X is that they're somewhat more bulky than Mega Mewtwo Y is. Mega Mewtwo Y doesn't like taking physical hits with it's somewhat underwhelming 70 Defense. Mega Mewtwo Y is also subsequently 2HKO'd by Spectral Thief by quite a lot of Pokemon who aren't even Ghost type. Ultra Necrozma and Mega Mewtwo X are not 2HKO'd by Spectral Thief by a lot of non-Ghost types. That means they have more turns and more opportunities to break through bulky Pokemon. You won't be able to steal their boosts and stop their momentum if they break past your defenses. Of course, like you said, there's always the opportunity you'll steal an Attack boost from Superpower, but there's no guarantee you'd be able to not get OHKOed by coverage or put to Sleep.
Unless you're Comatose, Magic Bounce, or Misty Terrain, Contrary users just putting you to Sleep is still an issue.
Yep, Misty Terrain. The guarantee is in my calcs... Unaware Meloetta is never 1HKOed, even with Safety Goggles over Leftovers and Stealth Rock damage. Dialga isn't either. Unaware stops 1HKOs, and Moongeist doesn't stop Dialga because it requires 2-3HKOs depending on if they have been Spectral Thieved.
About your points on Spectral Thief damaging the target significantly more as they get more boosts, I should also note that not all Contrary users are weak to Ghost, and that means that the opponent can boost constantly while taking a lot of hits as well. At least with the Psychics you can steal their boosts and hopefully 2HKO them at the same time. Not with mons like Mega Ray or Mega Diancie. While Misty Terrain Giratina serves as a check to Contrary Dragons, there's still the issue of Contrary Psychics and Fairies.
Fairy- Flash Fire Aegislash/Celesteelia, Unaware Darm-Z and Dialga can all 1HKO Diancie-Mega, while surviving its attacks.
252 Atk Aegislash-Shield Sunsteel Strike vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Diancie-Mega: 268-324 (88.1 - 106.5%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
252 SpA Life Orb Diancie-Mega Moongeist Beam vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Aegislash-Shield: 179-213 (55.2 - 65.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
252 SpA Life Orb Diancie-Mega Fleur Cannon vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Dialga: 231-274 (57.1 - 67.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
252 Atk Life Orb Diancie-Mega Superpower vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Dialga: 278-328 (68.8 - 81.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
Psychics-MMY, Necrozma: Unaware Dialga, and Meloetta. Unaware Darm-Z for Non-Moongeist variants of MMY, and Necrozma-U.
MMX: Unaware/Fur Coat Darm-Z, Prankster Haze/Fur Coat Spectral Thief Giratina for MMX.
Flash Fire Aegislash alone can stop physical variants b/c of Flash Fire's Immunities and its Ghost-typing Superpower Immunity.
+1 252 Atk Life Orb Mewtwo-Mega-X Photon Geyser vs. +1 252 HP / 252 Def Aegislash-Shield: 83-99 (25.6 - 30.5%) -- 1.2% chance to 4HKO after Leftovers recovery +2 252 SpA Life Orb Diancie-Mega Fleur Cannon vs. 252 HP / 252 SpD Celesteela: 253-298 (63.5 - 74.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
Dragons: Rayquaza- Flash Fire Aegislash(You literally can stop, Superpower, Overheat, and V-Create due to typing/abilities alone, and handle Dragon Ascent, Fleur Cannon/Draco Meteor/Psycho Boost, and Photon Geyser hits), Flash Fire Celesteelia, Darm-Z (Unaware or Fur Coat) can survive and 1HKO it with Ice Beam (after Stealth Rock without any boosting item, ability, etc.)
Sceptile- Same for Aegislash, Celesteelia (can wall Grass even better), Darm-Z. (Throw in Misty Terrain for Anti-Spore).
At least with Imposter, Sturdy Shedinja, and other abilities that people complain about, they're mostly one-dimensional and you know exactly what you're going to face at the teambuilder. With Contrary, there's always an air of uncertainty that you will be caught off guard and your opponent can switch in a Pokemon to revenge kill, only to knock your mon out and get +1 Attack or +2 Special Attack the same turn. Then it just snowballs from there a lot of the time.
Yes for Sturdy, but I disagree for Imposter because you cannot know when it will switch in, and thus you cannot predict what you will face (you can actually lose a Contrarian to an Imposter if you are not careful).
I'm going to be honest here in that despite what I've said about Contrary, I don't disagree with the opinions about Illusion either, and if others believe Illusion is really a bigger problem than Contrary, I believe that Illusion should be suspected first and foremost.
I believe Illusion is less of a problem b/c you can literally break it, and often it is only used 1x when you are going to Mega/Primal/Ultra, etc. and the ability changes. Illusion on its own is strong, but oftentimes it is a 1 time surprise, (the next time it switches in SR can give away its typing, or if you recall the HP % a Pokemon was before it last switched out you know its an Illusion). Illusion only works in the beginning of a match, and it forces the user to not always save it for later.
Honestly if you're at the point of where you're suggesting I run Grassy Terrain with a non-viable Pokemon then I think that further adds to my argument against Contrary. Meloetta might be an exceptional check to Mega Mewtwo Y and a shaky check to Ultra Necrozma, but... Meloetta doesn't do anything else at all. It's an objectively bad Pokemon. I mean, the best thing it'll do is set up Rocks and Baton Pass aside from stealing boosts using Spectral Thief. Also, in theory while it's true that Meloetta can stall out Ultra Necrozma, in practice what's more than likely going to happen is Ultra Necrozma will end up critting you after a while and then you are in big trouble.
Meloetta is only really useful because of it's immunity to Ghost and resistance to Psychic. But at that point, you have to question whether it's worth putting it on your team because it only counters two Pokemon.
In all honesty, Poison Heal Mega Audino likely does everything Meloetta can but better, and even then it might not be able to consistently beat Contrary mons.
It cannot take STAB Psychic attacks (Psycho Boosts are still 140 BP, while Draco, Fleur, etc. are 130) and when facing Photon Geyser, it is crucial to resist those hits so Unaware doesn't get negated. For example, look at this:
252 SpA Life Orb Mewtwo-Mega-Y Psycho Boost vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Audino-Mega: 247-292 (60.2 - 71.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Poison Heal
252 SpA Life Orb Necrozma-Ultra Psycho Boost vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Audino-Mega: 220-259 (53.6 - 63.1%) -- 82.4% chance to 2HKO after Poison Heal
Since this is without any boosts, the same damage would happen to Unaware variants, that means unless it can 1HKO the opponent, it will be 2HKOed. Thus Protect + Poison Heal = 25% removed from 63.1% x 2 = 126.2% which means even with a heal it is a 2HKO, and if it switches into it, Toxic Orb has to Poison Audino the first turn, meaning it wont heal first turn in like Leftovers would. Further, what can it do back? It will be surpassed by having to use Shore Up until it dies, and Spectral Thief wont save it, doing much less damage off of a lower Attack.
VS Meloetta:
252 SpA Life Orb Necrozma-Ultra Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Meloetta: 203-239 (50.2 - 59.1%) -- 23% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery and Grassy Terrain recovery
That 15 base power difference of 195 Draco vs 210 Psycho Boost makes Meloetta a better wall. And Unaware + Strength Sap means it wont get worn down, in fact, Strength Sap let's it get +Attack and KO with Spectral Thief.
*Keep in mind all of my calcs have been with +0 Attack Meloetta, but if it Spectral Thieves any boosts from Strength Sap, it will do even more.
Also, I am aware of Dialga rarely being used for Unaware, but the point was to find an on-the-spot check like Meloetta, so people can see that it isn't impossible to switch-into Contrary.
As for Meloetta as a whole, it is used, albeit rarely, as a Simple Geomancy/Shell Smash+Spectral Thief+Boomburst+Stored Power Sweeper, often used for anti-Spectral Thief (keep in mind if you Spectral Thief with Simple, you get double the boosts), which other Psychics are not only weak to Spectral but not having an Immunity can cost you the match if they are stopped by say Focus Sash + Spectral Thief MMX. Now your team is getting sweeped because they have your boosts, but at least with Meloetta you can accumulate boosts, it wont be hurt at all by Spectral, it resists Photon, and if it used Geomancy, then it wont be KOed by V-create/Superpower/Close Combat. As we see with Audino-M, unique typing makes or breaks a Pokemon's niche.
My defensive Meloetta would have Baton Pass/Boomburst, Spectral Thief, Baneful Bunker, Shore Up. Baton Pass is an issue if Imposter can also use Baton Pass, while Boomburst provides coverage against Normal/Dark types that you can hurt after accumulating Spectral Thief boosts from other foes. (We assume they would switch the Dark type in only to be surprised by a powerful Boomburst).
TLDR: I think the problem with people considering checks is they assume that you have to handle all possible movesets and variants in the most diverse Pokemon metagame there is. As Sheer Force MMY with Earth Power vs Muk, or Bolt Strike vs Kyogre proves, even designated Defensive Pokemon cannot handle all sets of all enemies, b/c if they could, they would likely be banned (like P-Don). Focus on the most likely sets, as you could say Moongeist Beam, then someone could say Spore, then another V-create, then another Lovely Kiss, and it just continues as if an Offensive Pokemon can never have 4MSS (not directing this at you, but just in general). I find that it is so hard to argue FOR Defensive sets, and all too easy to argue FOR Offensive sets, b/c you could just slash a bunch of *just in case* coverage moves, and no one questions it. As for Defense, its even a concern whether to bother with Strength Sap over Shore Up.
I just thought of Meloetta based on typing and good enough stats, threw in Leftovers, and prevented it from dying through Baneful Bunker to make due with her limits, and called it a check b/c it works. If I can think of that off the top of my head among others like Unaware Dialga, then Aegislash (Flash Fire), then Unaware/Fur Coat Darm-Z, then simply faster checks (Pheromosa, Triage Horn Leech/Leech Life Heracross for Diancie/MMY), etc. it shouldn't be difficult to come up with ways to to stop Contrary. If all else fails *Prankster Haze, Destiny Bond, Topsy Turvey, Soundproof Perish Song, etc. Even if you come up with the perfect check, they will apply a coverage move just for that.
I’m a bit unclear how Unaware works with Strength Sap, but if it allows you to continuously heal off the original base Attack stat lowered, then the heal can be often be better than Shore Up (I.e. if the foe has > 202 Attack).
So basically it is only useful against Contrarian users, where their Attack stat grows each use. I guess it works well with Spectral Thief against them, but too situational.
Yesterday I saw an Unaware, Spectral Thief, Swagger Arceus which I thought was long winded but interesting.
contrary mega mewtwo y has no shortage of checks. in fact whenever i use it, that's usually one of the biggest obstacles it faces: sometimes it has a hard time initially setting up.
the problem is finding pokemon that can switch into it. assuming a set of life orb psycho boost/fleur cannon/overheat/moongeist beam, even special walls can be 2hko'd:
252 SpA Life Orb Contrary Mewtwo-Mega-Y Psycho Boost over 2 turns vs. 252 HP / 252 SpD Eviolite Chansey: 618-728 (87.7 - 103.4%) -- 75% chance to 2HKO
252 SpA Life Orb Contrary Mewtwo-Mega-Y Psycho Boost over 2 turns vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Assault Vest Kyogre-Primal: 417-493 (103.2 - 122%) -- guaranteed KO in 2 turns
252 SpA Life Orb Contrary Mewtwo-Mega-Y Overheat over 2 turns vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Assault Vest Dialga: 361-426 (89.3 - 105.4%) -- 62.5% chance to 2HKO
to be clear, there is counterplay for this particular set. imposter revenge kills, faster pokemon like pheromosa and mscept as well as priority users can revenge kill, prankster can trade with destiny bond or paralyze with glare, unaware can (usually) survive a single hit, and niche pokemon like regenvest/unaware variants of meloetta and muk-a can avoid the 2hko.
if we add v create into the equation, meloetta and muk get 2hkod, only imposter can really revenge kill, and prankster glare becomes less reliable at stopping the sweep. in return, v create mmy has more difficulty breaking steel-types outside of solgaleo.
we can keep adding other options like spore, lovely kiss, pixie plate judgment, and sash. each one has counterplay, but the counterplay options are slightly different depending on the set.
now normally, this wouldn't matter. let's take a set that's clearly not broken like, say, pixilate expert belt mmx with close combat/espeed/boomburst/photon. now what happens if you guess the set wrong and carelessly switch in your giratina? sure, it takes 70% if they click boomburst, but now you have more information about their set and you can play around it more easily.
what sets contrary users apart from this is how they get a boost every time they hit. let's say you see mmy, so you go to av ogre and take 35 from lo contrary psycho boost. unless you don't need kyogre, you're going to switch it out here to avoid dying to the next psycho boost. but there's a problem here: you're up against a +2 mmy. something is probably going to die here.
your only option here that doesn't involve sacking a mon is hard switching to imposter and taking the psycho boost. but that puts you at risk of getting put to sleep by spore (which is actually a reasonable play for them given that they know ogre is av) and losing.
contrary forces you to play perfectly, and can disproportionately punish players for guessing a set wrong. mmy comes in on your zyg. do you switch out fearing sheer force ice beam? if they're contrary, you just gave them +2.
it can also force "no-win" situations, like if mmy comes in on your 40% giratina. they can click psycho or fleur to kill, and then they have +2 so you can't defensively check them
Going by the list of Contrarian's 1 by 1:
Also, I didn't bother to list the offensive checks/counters like Pheromosa, Triage Heracross, -ates, etc. because that would be too long of a list.
MMX:
Flash Fire Aegislash, Unaware/Fur Coat Lugia and Ho-Oh.
Unaware Zygarde can check Non-Ice Hammer MMX (even with Fleur Cannon).
Fur Coat Spectral Thief Giratina.
Prankster Haze/Unaware Giratina check Fleur Cannon
Fur Coat M-Sabeleye on non-Fleur Cannon variants.
Unaware Lugia, Dialga, Darm-Z (Non-Moongeist), and Meloetta. Even against Moongeist Beam Meloetta doesn't fear anything!
Necrozma-U:
Unaware Darm-Z, Ho-Oh, and Lugia. Flash Fire Aegislash, Unaware Kyogre-Primal
Rayquaza:
Mixed (V-Create/Superpower/Dragon Ascent/Draco Meteor) is stopped by Flash Fire Aegislash and Celesteelia, Unaware Lugia
(Special: Oblivion Wing, Overheat/V-Create, Draco Meteor, Fleur Cannon) is stopped by Unaware Ho-Oh/Kyogre-Primal. Not on the VR List: Unaware Stakataka for the V-Create variant; Non-Mega Unaware Diancie for the Overheat variant.
Basically Flash Fire Aegislash, Unaware Lugia, Unaware Ho-Oh (not on the VR but something to consider with Defog support), are consistent Contrary checks.
Additionally, something not listed is Misty Terrain, which, if provided by a partner for your Pokemon resistant to the other Contrary moves (i.e. Using Darm-Z or Meloetta for Fire/Psychic/Ice/Fighting/Grass/Fairy resistance), can come in with Unaware on Draco Meteor Ray-M/Necrozma-U and check them as well. This means if you just add some terrain support for your team, a non-check is now a check, plus it blocks their Spore if they use it.
Going by the list of Contrarian's 1 by 1:
Also, I didn't bother to list the offensive checks/counters like Pheromosa, Triage Heracross, -ates, etc. because that would be too long of a list.
MMX: Flash Fire Aegislash, Unaware/Fur Coat Lugia and Ho-Oh.
Unaware Zygarde can check Non-Ice Hammer MMX (even with Fleur Cannon).
Fur Coat Spectral Thief Giratina.
Prankster Haze/Unaware Giratina check Fleur Cannon
Fur Coat M-Sabeleye on non-Fleur Cannon variants.
MMY: Unaware Lugia, Dialga, Darm-Z (Non-Moongeist), and Meloetta. Even against Moongeist Beam Meloetta doesn't fear anything!
Necrozma-U: Unaware Darm-Z, Ho-Oh, and Lugia. Flash Fire Aegislash, Unaware Kyogre-Primal
Rayquaza: Mixed (V-Create/Superpower/Dragon Ascent/Draco Meteor) is stopped by Flash Fire Aegislash and Celesteelia, Unaware Lugia.
(Special: Oblivion Wing, Overheat, Draco Meteor, Fleur Cannon) is stopped by Unaware Ho-Oh. Not on the VR List: Unaware Stakataka for the V-Create variant; Non-Mega Unaware Diancie for the Overheat variant.
Basically Flash Fire Aegislash, Unaware Lugia, Unaware Ho-Oh (not on the VR but something to consider with Defog support), are consistent Contrary checks.
Additionally, something not listed is Misty Terrain, which, if provided by a partner for your Pokemon resistant to the other Contrary moves (i.e. Using Darm-Z or Meloetta for Fire/Psychic/Ice/Fighting/Grass/Fairy resistance), can come in with Unaware on Draco Meteor Ray-M/Necrozma-U and check them as well. This means if you just add some terrain support for your team, a non-check is now a check, plus it blocks their Spore if they use it.
I agree, my point is more on what people didn't think could have a check can. For example Aegislash-Shield with Flash Fire is a direct counter to MMX.
Also, Meloetta can deal with Moongeist Beam, it's just a matter of knowing what can be used, rather than assuming MMY has no defensive checks.
(People are even suggesting removing Muk-A from the VR because Unaware Muk-A takes alot from Life Orb Fleur Cannon, (43.7 - 51.4%) and basically has to heal nearly each turn and stall out MMY for Life Orb).
I believe Contrary is right to be considered for Suspect, but just didn't want people to feel it is completely unbeatable (namely MMY).
To the point on Moongeist: Not on Ray-Mega or Necrozma-U (I checked the SETPEDIA), for MMX Moongeist is slashed as Taunt/Spore/Moongeist, its rare. I guess Sceptile uses it though, and MMY definetely can use it.
Regarding the setpedia: Also shouldn't MMX's Technician set be Sniper instead? For the small chance Sunsteel Strike or Knock Off get a critical hit, then Sniper can boost them as well... Frost Breathe and Storm Throw still get the same boost in power.
Regarding the setpedia: Also shouldn't MMX's Technician set be Sniper instead? For the small chance Sunsteel Strike or Knock Off get a critical hit, then Sniper can boost them as well... Frost Breathe and Storm Throw still get the same boost in power.
Quickly talking about MMY and Rayquaza (which are the contrary users I'm familiar with, MMX is good but I don't really use it, Sceptile I use but it's an offence breaker, not impossible to answer defensively. And Necrozma-U is w/e).
Now I know how this tends to go, ppl bring a check, someone replies with "But what if they run..." so they have to bring another check etc etc... that's normal in BH, how far away from it's "optimal" set the original mon has to go (usually that means being better vs your counters but worse against everything else) and how specific the new answers have to be (specific answers means you're good against that mon but weaker against everything else, which is hard to afford in a tier where the tightness/role compression of your team is as important as it is in BH) determines if the mon is op or not.
The problem I have with contrary is that oftentimes I find myself struggling to come up with solutions to a single set with only standard moves.
The sets I would prepare for defensively are:
Rayquaza-Mega @ Life Orb
Ability: Contrary
EVs: 252 HP / 252 Atk / 252 Def / 252 SpA / 252 SpD / 252 Spe
Rash Nature
- V-create
- Draco Meteor
- Sunsteel Strike
- Strength Sap
For Ray that means Unaware Pogre / Ho-oh / Lugia are 2HKO with Draco, Unaware or Fur Coat fairies are OHKO-2HKO with Sunsteel or V-Create, Shed is out of the question, Flash Fire Aegislash and Celesteela are 2HKO by draco. Registeel can answer but is quite likely to get KOd over 3 turns, or takes 86 min over 2 turns before it can topsy turvy, potentially recover once on your switch to mmx and is now at half health (continuing on SL42's post, a mon being n 2HKO range of a wallbreaker i most situations means that you have to sack a mon before bringing it in, with contrary if you sack a mon ray is now at +2 so you still struggle to check).
The problem with this is that you pass a bunch of would be counters, but it comes at very little cost for ray, basically he just started running life orb. (You are weaker to relax PH audino tho but idk if that's a set and you can still beat it anyway)
Obviously Ray is much weaker now that Misty surge is gaining popularity. The vast majority of time you want to start setting up in front of giratina / zyg and not killing them is a huge drawback.
The real problem (imo) is MMY.
This set with MMY means it passes everything you listed and things that you didn't list (like unaware chansey) and really the cost for it is being harder to revenge kill because of def + speed boosts I guess it doesn't boost spa on every hit now, oh well...).
This is literally optimal coverage, the introduction of Fleur Canon made MMY's coverage optimal.
This aside, I want to briefly talk about the contrary vs Unaware matchup which is very skewed to begin with. Moves like Psycho Boost or Draco are designed "too" powerful with the drawback of lowering your attacking stat. The fact that contrary mons can afford to just spam 140 base power moves with no drawback is pretty ridiculous and is what makes contrary usually so bad against contrary, mons where not designed to tank hits like that, lol.
This also greatly helps at diminishing the impact of "no power on initial hit", mmy pretty much OHKOs stuff like Yveltal, Ttar, Diancie-m or Rayquaza.
Anyway some neat solutions have been proposed to tackle problems in an interesting way, here's a set of ban that I kinda like.
- Ban MMY.
- Ban V-Create.
- Unban le Don.
...
- Ban Shell Smash.
And ban Dazzling/Majesty.
Even the fact that these abilities are allowed limits revenge killing via priority (-ate fakespeed, sucker punch) severly.
I once faced a team of six MMX and had an Aerilate Rayquaza in my own team. None of these MMX was actually Dazzling or Queenly Majesty, so that I was able to easily sweep them with Ray, but because of the risk that they might actually have Dazzling/Majesty, I couldn't afford trying to click Fake Out/Extreme Speed until their actual abilities got revealed.
Without Dazzling/Majesty, offensive counterplay against Contrary (and other offensive mons such as Shell Smashers and Belly Drummers abusig Mold Breaker moves) becomes much more viable, since FakeSpeed or Sucker Punch wouldn't be wasted moveslots in most battles.
I think some of your Calcs above mentioned 2HKOs, when I had already checked for the purposes of my last posted list and can assure they can withstand attacks as 3HKOs, unless you mean MMY switching from Fleur to Photon to bypass Unaware, but if that’s the case, there is still how Ray uses unstabbed Sunsteel.
So let’s begin with Ray: Kyogre Calcs
Draco: 252 SpA Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Kyogre-Primal: 181-214 (44.8 - 52.9%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery without Grassy Terrain
If Bold they can use Leftovers + Protect clone (Grassy Terrain supplements that) to have about a 90% chance for a 3HKO:
252 SpA Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252 SpD Kyogre-Primal: 199-235 (49.2 - 58.1%) -- 10.2% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery and Grassy Terrain recovery
V-Create:
Bold Nature
252 Atk Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega V-create vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Kyogre-Primal: 125-148 (30.9 - 36.6%) -- 29.8% chance to 4HKO after Leftovers recovery and Grassy Terrain recovery
Calm Nature
252 Atk Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega V-create vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Kyogre-Primal: 138-162 (34.1 - 40%) -- 100% chance to 4HKO after Leftovers recovery and Grassy Terrain recovevery
I didn’t bother with Sunsteel since the standard set doesn’t use Superpower. TLDR- Draco = 3HKO when Calm, while V-Create = 4HKO even with a neutral defensive nature. Overall a Calm Nature guarantees 3-4HKOs.
Now on to Ho-Oh vs Ray Calcs:
Draco:252 SpA Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Ho-Oh: 187-222 (44.9 - 53.3%) -- 0.4% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
If using Protect + Leftovers (I took away its Flying Type so it would add the healing):
252 SpA Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Ho-Oh: 187-222 (44.9 - 53.3%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery and Grassy Terrain recovery
If Bold there is an 87% Draco will 3HKO: 252 SpA Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252 SpD Ho-Oh: 207-243 (49.7 - 58.4%) -- 13.7% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery and Grassy Terrain recovery
Now V-Create:
252 Atk Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega V-create vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Ho-Oh: 138-162 (33.1 - 38.9%) -- 96.8% chance to 4HKO after Leftovers recovery and Grassy Terrain recovery
And for a Bold Nature:
252 Atk Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega V-create vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Ho-Oh: 125-148 (30 - 35.5%) -- 3% chance to 4HKO after Leftovers recovery and Grassy Terrain recovery
TLDR: Draco is a 3HKO with a Calm Nature, which can be secured via Protect + Leftovers. V-Create is 97% a 4HKO evenwithout a Bold Nature. So a Calm Nature keeps it at a 3-4KO overall.
For Lugia vs Ray Calcs
Bold Nature is required to handle V-Create:
252 Atk Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega V-create vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Lugia: 196-231 (47.1 - 55.5%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery and Grassy Terrain recovery
With a Calm:
252 Atk Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega V-create vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Lugia: 214-253 (51.4 - 60.8%) -- 51.6% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery and Grassy Terrain recovery
For Bold Draco:
252 SpA Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252 SpD Lugia: 207-243 (49.7 - 58.4%) -- 13.7% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery and Grassy Terrain recovery
With Calm: 252 SpA Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Lugia: 187-222 (44.9 - 53.3%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery and Grassy Terrain recovery
TLDR: Lugia is always a 3HKO with V-Create on Bold, and has an 86% chance of 3HKOing for Draco Meteor with Bold, or a 100% with Calm. Bold is preferred so that way you have a guaranteed V-Create 3HKO and a very high Draco 3HKO. (Going Calm would make you only 51% 3HKO with V-Create)
One Steel that can be used for Ray is actually Stakataka:
Draco with a neutral Nature: 252 SpA Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252 SpD Stakataka: 138-164 (42.3 - 50.3%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
V-Create with a + Bold Nature : 252 Atk Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega V-create vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Stakataka: 139-165 (42.6 - 50.6%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery and Grassy Terrain recovery
TLDR: Stakataka is always a 3HKO with a +Bold Nature even without using Protect to stall, no need to boost Special Defense.
One Fairy that can handle your Ray Set is Tapu-Fini, which thanks to her Water Typing, adds a resistance to V-Create, and a neutrality to Sunsteel. Keep in mind, these don’t even factor in Fur Coat, so if she used Fur Coat, V-Create would be half of what it shows here:
Sunsteel Strike with a Bold Nature: 252 Atk Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega Sunsteel Strike vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Tapu Fini: 118-140 (34.3 - 40.6%) -- 56.7% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
Sunsteel with a neutral nature: 252 Atk Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega Sunsteel Strike vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Tapu Fini: 131-155 (38 - 45%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
V-Create against a Bold Nature:
252 Atk Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega V-create vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Tapu Fini: 107-126 (31.1 - 36.6%) -- guaranteed 4HKO after Leftovers recovery
V-Create against a neutral nature: 252 Atk Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega V-create vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Tapu Fini: 117-138 (34 - 40.1%) -- 32.4% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
TLDR: Tapu-Fini is by far the best Check, of dare I say “Counter!” To your standard Ray Set, taking 3HKOs at worst with a neutral nature! This doesn’t event factor in Protect + Leftovers, or Fur Coat for V-Create. She could even have another ability like Stamina to basically wall Ray till she decide to go for the KO.
P.S. Fur Coat Fini is on the VR and setpedia with a Fur Coat Set.
Overall, Kyogre-Primal, Tapu, Stakataka, and Ho-Oh Counter your Ray set with 3-4HKOs always!
Lugia can be a Check, not a Counter, as V-Creates always 3HKO, but Draco Meteors have a 14% to 2HKO. In this case, using using Dragon Tail/Circle Throw to make Ray switch on the turn it uses Draco Meteor won’t be too much to ask..
I am unsure what you meant here:
(You are weaker to relax PH audino tho but idk if that's a set and you can still beat it anyway)
And then they suddenly unleash a leaf storm to destroy Kyogre/Tapu Fini or put their "check" to sleep with Spore or Lovely Kiss to bypass Safety Googles.
And then they suddenly unleash a leaf storm to destroy Kyogre/Tapu Fini or put their "check" to sleep with Spore or Lovely Kiss to bypass Safety Googles.
This is not to rebut or anything, just to clarify my previous post. Calcs were made with safety goggles in mind, as unaware can rarely afford not to run them in order to stay somewhat reliable in the meta. Almost every unaware set in setpedia is exclusively safety goggles with the exception of Ferrothorn (A grass type) and Chansey who kinda has to run eviolithe.
They were also made with Rash nature in Ray's case.
I would also point out that clicking protect is very risky since your opponent can just switch out to anything that can force you out and leave you at 60%.
Calcs on my side looked smt more like:
252+ SpA Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Kyogre-Primal: 199-235 (49.2 - 58.1%) -- 98% chance to 2HKO
252+ SpA Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Ho-Oh: 207-243 (49.7 - 58.4%) -- 98.8% chance to 2HKO
252 Atk Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega V-create vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Lugia: 214-253 (51.4 - 60.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 Atk Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega V-create vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Stakataka: 148-175 (45.3 - 53.6%) -- 41.8% chance to 2HKO
Fini counters, that's the reason it's on the setpedia. Calcs assume rocks are off ofc
By saying this set was weaker to PH relax MAudino I meat with only one special boosting move it has a harder time beating PH relax audino then say the same set but with leaf storm or superpower or any of the other moves it could run to have a better mu against PH relax MAudino.
This is not to rebut or anything, just to clarify my previous post. Calcs were made with safety goggles in mind, as unaware can rarely afford not to run them in order to stay somewhat reliable in the meta. Almost every unaware set in setpedia is exclusively safety goggles with the exception of Ferrothorn (A grass type) and Chansey who kinda has to run eviolithe.
They were also made with Rash nature in Ray's case.
I would also point out that clicking protect is very risky since your opponent can just switch out to anything that can force you out and leave you at 60%.
Calcs on my side looked smt more like:
252+ SpA Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Kyogre-Primal: 199-235 (49.2 - 58.1%) -- 98% chance to 2HKO
252+ SpA Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Ho-Oh: 207-243 (49.7 - 58.4%) -- 98.8% chance to 2HKO
252 Atk Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega V-create vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Lugia: 214-253 (51.4 - 60.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 Atk Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega V-create vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Stakataka: 148-175 (45.3 - 53.6%) -- 41.8% chance to 2HKO
Fini counters, that's the reason it's on the setpedia. Calcs assume rocks are off ofc
By saying this set was weaker to PH relax MAudino I meat with only one special boosting move it has a harder time beating PH relax audino then say the same set but with leaf storm or superpower or any of the other moves it could run to have a better mu against PH relax MAudino.
Let's use Smogon's definition of a counter, and a check:
*Counter - Pokémon A counters Pokémon B if Pokémon A can manually switch into Pokémon B and still win every time, even under the worst case scenario, without factoring in hax.
*Check - Pokémon A checks Pokémon B if, when Pokémon A is given a free switch into Pokémon B, Pokémon A can win every time, even under the worst case scenario, without factoring in hax.
You said PH Mega-Audino is better counter to this set anyways, but doesn't the Ray carry Sunsteel Strike in the set you mentioned above?
252 Atk Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega Sunsteel Strike vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Audino-Mega: 221-263 (53.9 - 64.1%) -- 86.7% chance to 2HKO after Poison Heal
So, it only has a 13.3% chance of surviving a second Sunsteel Strike after switching in, therefore it cannot be a counter. In order to qualify as a check, it should be able to defeat or at least force a switch against Rayquaza, I guess if it has Whirlwind, then if it slow pivots into Ray and uses Whirlwind, it could survive as low as 35.9% HP remaining...
Also, Toxic Orb takes a full turn to activate, which means if you send in Audino-M for the first time in battle, against Ray, then it will always be a 2HKO because it will not have healed off any damage at all (in case you switch it in on a mis-predicted hit and thought they would have used Draco Meteor, but you took Sunsteel Strike; team preview!)
Lets try my proposed Stamina M-Audino Set - it would almost be guaranteed to live for both hits without Protect:
252 Atk Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega Sunsteel Strike vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Audino-Mega: 221-263 (53.9 - 64.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
+
252 Atk Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega Sunsteel Strike vs. +1 252 HP / 252+ Def Audino-Mega: 148-177 (36 - 43.1%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
After both hits, the total max possible damage is 107.2%, with 6.25% HP healing from Leftovers in between turns = 100.95%, so it's safer to assume it can handle it for certain with Protect, and most of the time without Protect thanks to Leftovers.
And then it can stall with Shore Up for Stamina boosts until Ray switches out. Now, this actually counters Ray unless it gets a Critical Hit, because Ray will accumulate 10% damage per turn, while Stamina allows Audino to take less damage per turn, use Shore Up less often, and then use another move like Core Enforcer, Dragon Tail, or even Spectral Thief if Ray has any boosts accumulated, all while being Imposterproof for a Baton Pass! ;) My set partners with Misty Terrain Giratina support to avoid all status moves/effects, permitting the use of Leftovers. :)
The benefit is that unlike Tapu-Fini, it has more than a few uses...
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For some reason I didn't notice Rash on Ray, I apologize, and that does change the calcs.
However, to be fair: Lugia, and Ho-oh are not listed on the Setpedia, and I do not see Unaware listed as abilities (only top 3 are listed) for either of them in the VR list, with this in mind, I feel its fair to let them have Leftovers and a Protect move, as their sets are not established. Further, if you can survive more hits on a non-Spore user, that can make a bigger difference (after all, running Safety Goggles to counter something without Spore is a wasted item slot, especially if you could have survived more with Leftovers + Protect). Same goes for Stakataka with Unaware, now mind you Stakataka is something I thought of recently and thus it isn't listed anywhere.
Still for Kyogre:
252+ SpA Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Kyogre-Primal: 199-235 (49.2 - 58.1%) -- 10.2% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery and Grassy Terrain recovery
The key here is that Unaware P-Kyogre can 1HKO Ray (keep in mind Life Orb Recoil means it only needs to do 90% damage):
252 SpA Kyogre-Primal Ice Beam vs. 252 HP / 252 SpD Rayquaza-Mega: 400-472 (96.6 - 114%) -- 75% chance to OHKO
With your suggested Rash Nature:
252 SpA Kyogre-Primal Ice Beam vs. 252 HP / 252- SpD Rayquaza-Mega: 440-520 (106.2 - 125.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO
So, Kyogre is at least a check 100% of the time, and is a counter 90% of the time. Throw in Misty Terrain support, and its a definitive counter.
*Frost Breathe could also be used in the case of being hit with Core Enforcer, allowing it to bypass V-Create boosts due to the Critical Hit
I guess to diminish the power of Draco Meteor Stakataka could use Misty Surge as its ability over Unaware, which permits Leftovers over Safety Goggles. In this case:
252+ SpA Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252 SpD Stakataka in Misty Terrain: 75-90 (23 - 27.6%) -- possible 5HKO after Leftovers recovery
+
+2 252+ SpA Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252 SpD Stakataka in Misty Terrain: 151-178 (46.3 - 54.6%) -- 8.2% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
Let's add damage for both turns: 27.6% + 54.6% = 82.2% damage - 12.5% over 2 turns of Leftovers = 69.7% max damage making it a 3HKO
If it uses Protect between each of the first two Draco's, then it heals another 12.5%% and makes it 57.2% damage taken, or 42.8% HP left. (This is worst case scenario, where Stakataka switches into Draco Meteor)
If they are both in at the same time then on the first turn of damage, Life Orb takes Ray down to 90%, while in that turn Ice Hammer deals 84% and then Ray kills itself the 2nd hit from Life Orb Recoil, while Stakataka can just use Shore Up to heal off the damage.
252 Atk Stakataka Ice Hammer vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Rayquaza-Mega: 348-412 (84 - 99.5%) -- 56.3% chance to OHKO at 90% HP
So Stakataka takes 27.6% damage, heals 6.25% which makes it 21.35% total damage, and then it hits Stakataka with Ice Hammer. Next turn, Rayquaza kills itself from Life Orb recoil, while Stakataka can heal the 54.6% damage from the 2nd Draco Meteor with Shore Up + Leftovers (56.25%) meaning its actually healed up 1.65% HP. So actually, Stakataka is at higher HP on the 2nd Draco Meteor than the first.
Also, Stakataka isn’t bothering with a SpD Nature just like Muk-A isn’t bothering with a Def Nature- it’s about playing to its strengths, so it would be a Def Nature since Steel Typing let’s it resist Ice, Psychic, Dragon, Flying, etc. most of which are Special Attacks. Think of a resist as doubling its Special Defense or Defense. Thus it doesn’t need to rely on stats alone, whereas Audino is nuetral to most types, and will need the nature boost to survive more things it doesn't resist.
As for V-Create:
252 Atk Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega V-create vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Stakataka: 139-165 (42.6 - 50.6%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
+1 Def Ray
252 Atk Stakataka Ice Hammer vs. +1 252 HP / 252 Def Rayquaza-Mega: 232-276 (56 - 66.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
+2 Def Ray
252 Atk Stakataka Ice Hammer vs. +2 252 HP / 252 Def Rayquaza-Mega: 176-208 (42.5 - 50.2%) -- 100% % chance to 2HKO at 80% HP from Life Orb recoil
Thus, if Stakataka switches into V-Create, it can just Shore Up vs Life Orb, or eventually 2HKO with Ice Hammer even with Defense boosts
------
Lugia & Ho-oh
On Lugia, you made your point clear as by going Calm, it takes more from V-Create, while with Ho-Oh, which resists V-Create and Sunsteel anyways and thus can afford to go Careful, it cannot rely on Misty Terrain support as a Flying type for anti-Dragon/anti-status moves, and therefore it can still be 2HKOed even with Defog support.
252+ SpA Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Ho-Oh: 207-243 (49.7 - 58.4%) -- 13.7% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery and Grassy Terrain recovery
It's almost as good as a check as Kyogre, but with Stealth Rocks, and no Misty support, its hard to justify its place on a team instead of Kyogre-Primal.
---------
TLDR: You are correct on the birds: With a Rash nature Ray bypasses Unaware Ho-Oh/Lugia.
You were correct about Unaware Stakataka, but Stakataka can use Misty Terrain to survive Draco Meteor and supplement Safety Goggles, thus using Leftovers (and possibly Protect) to keep its healing, and still go with Bold to diminish damage from Draco Meteor, and rely on Life Orb recoil to put Ray in KO range of Ice Hammer. Protect also negates the damage of its resisted Stealth Rocks, allowing it to come in regardless of SR or not!
It might be more debatable due to Sap Sipper, and Misty Terrain wearing off, but Ice Hammer timed after 2 hits from Life Orb recoil will be more than enough damage. The trick is, you don't give them a reason to use Sap Sipper, you have them attack, accumulate damage, and then strike when they think you are going on the defensive. Also, if it uses Core Enforcer, Ray will lose stats whenever it uses V-Create/Draco Meteor (Misty doesn't protect Ray since its a Flying type). So regardless of damage, you are effectively forcing a switch and countering Ray.
Kyogre is an interesting case: With Misty Terrain support, she can wall Ray-Mega better than Fur Coat Tapu Fini (Sunsteel Strike bypasses Fur Coat), and serve as a 1HKO counter. Without Misty Terrain, she can still check Ray-Mega, and KO.
Calcs compared to Fini:
Draco vs Kyogre + Misty Terrain
252+ SpA Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Kyogre-Primal in Misty Terrain: 99-117 (24.5 - 28.9%) -- possible 5HKO after Leftovers recovery
V-Create vs Kyogre
252 Atk Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega V-create vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Kyogre-Primal: 138-162 (34.1 - 40%) -- 37.8% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
Sunsteel vs Fini
252 Atk Life Orb Rayquaza-Mega Sunsteel Strike vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Tapu Fini: 118-140 (34.3 - 40.6%) -- 56.7% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
Still, Fini can use Frost Breathe on her Fur Coat set to bypass V-Create boosts, and threaten with a 2HKO, which helps when Ray takes Life Orb recoil.
252 SpA Tapu Fini Frost Breath vs. 252 HP / 252- SpD Rayquaza-Mega on a critical hit: 284-336 (68.5 - 81.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
(Your sets' Strength Sap can only heal so much after lowering attack off of 0 Attack IVs, 0 Attack EVs, and a -Attack nature).
Speaking about Staka, I would never risk keeping Staka in against a Rayquaza-mega set because of the threat of superpower. Also you would have to know the Rayquaza is a contrary set in the first place, though i suppose Misty Surge Staka handles most of Ray's other standard sets as well (triage, aerilate). The ground and fighting weaknesses are also really troublesome for it as mons can easily run that coverage. I suppose you could run Bunker on Staka to scout the move and get some extra residual damage going.
I didn't think Contrary was that bad, but it really might be, especially if you decide to run +spe on Rayquaza. You give up some power in exchange to outspeed some scarfers after a v-create boost that could normally KO it, like Metagross-mega and Diancie-mega. I guess I haven't played enough well-played contrary teams ...
To prevent this thread from being derailed further, I will be analyzing the proposed suspect targets through the ban guide
: From a basic prespective stat wise MMY has some very high offensive stats with the highest spa in the game and a very well useable atk stat, its speed is also very good in this meta outspeeding the likes of mgar and mmx and can be argued that mons like phero and bee are viable because of outspeeding MMY. Defensively wise, its solid special bulk lets it take weak special attacks. Defense is lacking but still enough to take weak hits from weak mons. Typing wise its a pretty bad typing but defensively lets it offensively check mmx. Stab is poor. I would say that it doesnt satisfy the natural qualities. Multidimensional wise, MMY certainly has a lot to offer as I would argue that 2 of its main sets are top tier, SF, Contrary, and its other sets are also very good, Tinted, Dazzle, MG. Its main sets are very dominant, as one would have to prepare well against it, and even prepared stuff can be taken out by a lure coverage (weak point i know but the coverage usually isn't pure niche thanks to mmy's natural power). Finally, the centralization part. Obv first point doesn't satisfy. Second point isn't very true either, as there are a couple of very viable mons that can take mmy usually (such as ff regi and av pogre). Last point is a bit eh as the answers to the sets do differ but in general its not like its strong sets completely counter each other's checks and counters.
Conclusion: Not worthy of suspect atm
Lets look at the two points of Ability Ban.
"Splashable"ility:
Can be slapped onto nearly any 'mon, regardless of role, stat spread or moveset .e.g. Shadow Tag and Wonder Guard
Basically describes Illusion, except it must be an offensive mon. Nearly every offensive mon can use Illusion either as a way to prevent imp or lure for another mon. All you need is an offensive mon with solid offensive stats and the right moves, obv not as splashable as say Shadow Tag and Wonder Guard but still super splashable.
Extreme Augmentation:
The capabilities of the 'mon it is on that the set in question are difficult or impossible to check or counter. This implies that the power originates from the ability and that the choice of 'mon, item and even moveset, is irrelevant. e.g. Pure Power, Parental Bond
Yep, Illusion is pretty damn difficult to check or counter, as it is extremely unpredictable and hard to prepare for. Previous posts have done a good job already explaining. Indeed, the power originated from Illusion, as the mon is simply to abuse Illusion, no specific mon is broken due to Illusion, its Illusion as a whole that becomes problematic
Conclusion: Broken
We will once again look at the two points of Ability Ban.
"Splashable"ility:
Can be slapped onto nearly any 'mon, regardless of role, stat spread or moveset .e.g. Shadow Tag and Wonder Guard
Similar to Illusion this can be splashed onto nearly all offensive mons. The only ones that don't are those that don't have a good Contrary STAB. If we look at the good contrary moves the types are Fire, Grass, Psychic, Dragon, Fairy, Flying (arguable), Fighting, and Normal counts despite no Contrary move thanks to Spectral immunity. This covers most of the offensive mons, leaving out only Primal Kyogre, the trio of darks, and MGar as the notable ones. Again, all you need is an offensive mon not named one of the above and it should work.
Extreme Augmentation:
The capabilities of the 'mon it is on that the set in question are difficult or impossible to check or counter. This implies that the power originates from the ability and that the choice of 'mon, item and even moveset, is irrelevant. e.g. Pure Power, Parental Bond
Pretty much well summarized by users above. Contrary is ridiculously hard to answer reliably and just like before it really doesn't matter weather you are using MRay or MMY or MMX or Scept or other meme contrary user, the ability as a whole is busted.
Conclusion: Equally broken
Going to do these together, as the ability ban guideline seems overly strict.
A banworthy move would be:
An attack with either no counters, or unreasonably niche or unusable ones e.g. OHKO Moves
A move (attack or status) that removes the emphasis on skill, planning and/or preparation and moves the outcome to forces not in control of the player e.g. Chatter
They would be effective without needing real synergy with the Pokemon itself, its ability, the rest of its moveset, item or any in-game condition
Obv all of these moves have answers and are reasonably viable answers. The skill part is different, V-Create relies on at least some skill to predict and it is not mindless. Shell SMash is the most brainless move as most of times the only skill required is click safely but the guideline seems really strict so yeah. Mold Breaker moves are like V-Create but a little more brainless. I feel like Shell Smash is the move most likely should be suspected but if we do end up suspecting Mold Breaker Moves (or heck even just Moongeist as it provides the best coverage and isn't as impacting as sunsteel would by nerfing mons to oblivion) then maybe Smash is less problematic. If V-Create ends up somehow banned please resuspect PDon, sacred fire is weak af.
Thanks for reading this long post that is probably shit quality but w/e im trying to make a new topic.
Really, the whole Contrary discussion is fascinating and all, but really the easy solution is being mostly overlooked here. Get rid of the Mold Breaker moves and Contrary easily falls into line. Contrary pops in with perfect coverage to one-shot every wall in the game? No problem, now you can use Shedinja to laugh at it! (Among other options.) Yeah sure, the Contrary could run Magma Storm or something to bypass it, but those are decisions not made easily nor lightly in team building. As a bonus, removing the moldy moves takes out a lot of other unhealthy stuff in the meta to boot and brings in neat options for (nearly) all team archetypes.
From a basic prespective stat wise MMY has some very high offensive stats with the highest spa in the game and a very well useable atk stat, its speed is also very good in this meta outspeeding the likes of mgar and mmx and can be argued that mons like phero and bee are viable because of outspeeding MMY. Defensively wise, its solid special bulk lets it take weak special attacks. Defense is lacking but still enough to take weak hits from weak mons. Typing wise its a pretty bad typing but defensively lets it offensively check mmx. Stab is poor. I would say that it doesnt satisfy the natural qualities. Multidimensional wise, MMY certainly has a lot to offer as I would argue that 2 of its main sets are top tier, SF, Contrary, and its other sets are also very good, Tinted, Dazzle, MG. Its main sets are very dominant, as one would have to prepare well against it, and even prepared stuff can be taken out by a lure coverage (weak point i know but the coverage usually isn't pure niche thanks to mmy's natural power). Finally, the centralization part. Obv first point doesn't satisfy. Second point isn't very true either, as there are a couple of very viable mons that can take mmy usually (such as ff regi and av pogre). Last point is a bit eh as the answers to the sets do differ but in general its not like its strong sets completely counter each other's checks and counters.
Conclusion: Not worthy of suspect atm
I feel Mega Mewtwo Y and Mega Mewtwo X are personally about the same level of strength, with Mega Mewtwo Y being favored due to a higher base speed and being the Special Attacker means it doesn't have to worry about Fur Coat. But ultimately I feel like both of them are too much with the combination of Shell Smash, Contrary, and Sungeist Geyser. I feel like these two Pokemon both make the meta very unhealthy as it's next to impossible to wall them with DazzleSmash, Contrary, and sets utilizing Sungeist Geyser. Why do I consider these sets broken?
Sungeist Geyser: Normally setup sweepers will lose to Unaware walls, Shedinja, Fur Coat, etc. With Sungeist Geyser, setup sweepers not only take the role of Dazzling, Contrary, or whatever other ability they have, they can also take the "Mold Breaker" capability of breaking past ability-reliant walls with Photon Geyser and Moongeist Beam. Sunsteel Strike isn't any different although it's not used on Mewtwo X/Y, but I also consider it banworthy because it makes Unburden Steel types just as ridiculous. Sungeist Geyser feel like they heavily shift the meta offensively because most walls rely on their ability, and because of Sungeist Geyser, Unaware and Shedinja have both fallen in usage steadily since last gen while most walls have just started running Magic Bounce, Comatose, or Prankster.
While I don't think the moves are overpowered in their own right, I feel like setup sweepers already have enough tools to the point of where a lot of people I see agree that something should be done. Sungeist Geyser should ultimately be suspected.
DazzleSmash: The fact that setup sweepers can instantaneously be +2 Attack/Special Attack and +2 Speed in one turn feels ridiculously strong, unfair even. Adding this to Power Trip (which I am going to talk about later), Dazzling which prevents priority moves from revenge killing, and Sungeist Geyser, next to nothing can actually reasonably wall DazzleSmashers with Sungeist Geyser, especially if Sungeist Geyser is STAB, which for Mega Mewtwo X, it is.
In my honest opinion, while Dazzling is not overpowered, the combination of Shell Smash and Sungeist Geyser are. Setup is so ridiculously strong right now that nothing can reasonably wall them any more.
Contrary: The ability to boost your stats and hit obscenely hard at the same time makes any would-be checks have to worry about being 2HKOed. I've already covered this quite a lot but there are so many Contrary moves and many different sets can beat out defensive walls. A lot of Contrary Pokemon run Moongeist Beam which doesn't help walls.
Contrary should be banned and immediately after Illusion gets a suspect. Contrary may be revenge killed with priority, but with Defense bonuses on top of Attack/Special Attack bonuses and the ability to use Sungeist Geyser makes the ability just as banworthy if not more than Shell Smash.
Honestly, if people are feeling inclined to use legitimately bad Pokemon like Mega Sableye in an effort to be able to check Mega Mewtwo X, and Regenvest Steels in an effort to possibly check Mega Mewtwo Y depending on the moveset, then that is busted in my opinion. Another thing is that if people are inclined to run Imposter just to be capable of revenging DazzleSmash, then that's also overpowered.
Mega Mewtwo Y and X are not overpowered. The tools they have at their disposal are splashable on many Pokemon and the tools in question are overpowered. If Sungeist Geyser gets banned, then bulky Psychics will be able to wall Mega Mewtwo Y for the most part due to lacking Moongeist Beam, while if Shell Smash gets banned, then Mega Mewtwo X takes twice as long to boost it's Attack with Shift Gear or it can get revenged by Mega Mewtwo Y or other faster Pokemon if it uses Swords Dance.
Lets look at the two points of Ability Ban.
"Splashable"ility:
Can be slapped onto nearly any 'mon, regardless of role, stat spread or moveset .e.g. Shadow Tag and Wonder Guard
Basically describes Illusion, except it must be an offensive mon. Nearly every offensive mon can use Illusion either as a way to prevent imp or lure for another mon. All you need is an offensive mon with solid offensive stats and the right moves, obv not as splashable as say Shadow Tag and Wonder Guard but still super splashable.
Extreme Augmentation:
The capabilities of the 'mon it is on that the set in question are difficult or impossible to check or counter. This implies that the power originates from the ability and that the choice of 'mon, item and even moveset, is irrelevant. e.g. Pure Power, Parental Bond
Yep, Illusion is pretty damn difficult to check or counter, as it is extremely unpredictable and hard to prepare for. Previous posts have done a good job already explaining. Indeed, the power originated from Illusion, as the mon is simply to abuse Illusion, no specific mon is broken due to Illusion, its Illusion as a whole that becomes problematic
Conclusion: Broken
In a way I have to agree. I really like Illusion because of it's ability to Improof, but the simple problem is that it's just unfair to play against and even though it may be stronger on Pokemon that can Mega Evolve, Primal Reverse, or Ultra Burst, many Pokemon can utilize it to gain momentum on a forced switch. Say you're Mega Mewtwo X against Mega Mewtwo Y. You obviously hard switch out because you don't want to get hit by Moonblast, Fleur Cannon, or Inferno. But the opponent ends up using Shell Smash? Oh wait. It was just an Illusion Mega Tyranitar and now it'll 6-0 your team with Power Trip because you made a prediction you couldn't possibly have done right. But wait! The ability is even more broken. I've seen Illusion reactivate in the middle of battle when said Pokemon switches back in, and it can appear as a different Pokemon this time around (e.g. first time it appears as Mega Mewtwo Y, second time it might appear as Giratina).
So basically the only way to know if the mon has Illusion is to keep track of it's health bar and look at how much Stealth Rock damage does. Honestly, it's a real fucking shame, because I genuinely like the idea of Illusion for Primals, Mega Evolutions, and Necrozma Dusk Mane/Dawn Wings because of the fact that they're for the most part predictable because no one uses any non-transformed versions of the aforementioned Pokemon except for Dusk Mane, but other people will abuse Illusion and ruin it for everyone else. There's probably no chance it'll get any sort of complex ban anyways so I agree this should be suspected very soon because of it's uncompetitive nature. Shell Smash, Contrary, etc., they're all broken, but they aren't uncompetitive. I believe Illusion is uncompetitive.
We will once again look at the two points of Ability Ban.
"Splashable"ility:
Can be slapped onto nearly any 'mon, regardless of role, stat spread or moveset .e.g. Shadow Tag and Wonder Guard
Similar to Illusion this can be splashed onto nearly all offensive mons. The only ones that don't are those that don't have a good Contrary STAB. If we look at the good contrary moves the types are Fire, Grass, Psychic, Dragon, Fairy, Flying (arguable), Fighting, and Normal counts despite no Contrary move thanks to Spectral immunity. This covers most of the offensive mons, leaving out only Primal Kyogre, the trio of darks, and MGar as the notable ones. Again, all you need is an offensive mon not named one of the above and it should work.
Extreme Augmentation:
The capabilities of the 'mon it is on that the set in question are difficult or impossible to check or counter. This implies that the power originates from the ability and that the choice of 'mon, item and even moveset, is irrelevant. e.g. Pure Power, Parental Bond
Pretty much well summarized by users above. Contrary is ridiculously hard to answer reliably and just like before it really doesn't matter weather you are using MRay or MMY or MMX or Scept or other meme contrary user, the ability as a whole is busted.
Conclusion: Equally broken
Going to do these together, as the ability ban guideline seems overly strict.
A banworthy move would be:
An attack with either no counters, or unreasonably niche or unusable ones e.g. OHKO Moves
A move (attack or status) that removes the emphasis on skill, planning and/or preparation and moves the outcome to forces not in control of the player e.g. Chatter
They would be effective without needing real synergy with the Pokemon itself, its ability, the rest of its moveset, item or any in-game condition
Obv all of these moves have answers and are reasonably viable answers. The skill part is different, V-Create relies on at least some skill to predict and it is not mindless. Shell Smash is the most brainless move as most of times the only skill required is click safely but the guideline seems really strict so yeah. Mold Breaker moves are like V-Create but a little more brainless. I feel like Shell Smash is the move most likely should be suspected but if we do end up suspecting Mold Breaker Moves (or heck even just Moongeist as it provides the best coverage and isn't as impacting as sunsteel would by nerfing mons to oblivion) then maybe Smash is less problematic. If V-Create ends up somehow banned please resuspect PDon, sacred fire is weak af.
V-Create is definitely a move that proves to be far too powerful in normal circumstances and I do think Primal Groudon would be balanced without V-Create. However, I do wonder if V-Create will still be overpowered after a potential Contrary and Shell Smash ban. Every time V-Create is used, your Speed falls, and this leaves you very vulnerable after using it once or twice. Sure, Shift Gear boosts your Speed just as much as Shell Smash, but it's nowhere near as strong as Shell Smash. Regardless, it's probably still broken on Tinted Lens Mega Blaziken so I think it should go too.
Shell Smash is definitely overpowered because not only does it boost your Attack, Special Attack, and Speed to high levels, a new move was introduced this generation called Power Trip. Power Trip differs from Stored Power in that nothing is immune to it, so alongside Sungeist Geyser, you can also break past ability-reliant walls passively due to Power Trip growing in power massively every single time. I feel like Power Trip, despite it being weaker initially than Sungeist Geyser, ends up being a problem similarly to said moves solely because it can break through ability-reliant walls such as Unawares. While I'm uncertain I'd want Power Trip banned, Shell Smash definitely has to go.
I just wanted to give my opinions on the topics since I haven't really mentioned anything other than Contrary until now.
