Good stuff, I watched the 489 replay and I have a couple questions:
1. Generally how much do you set up with Moody? What stat boosts do you wait for before going in? I couldn't see stats in the replay, so I don't know what you were at when you started attacking.
2. When you switched out on that Chandelure, is the risk of a Heat Wave hitting and critting worth worrying about? It seems like you would one or two hit Chandelure, and I'm assuming you had boosts to outspeed as well as some evasion boosts, so is it generally just best to play excessively safe once you get those good streaks going?
3. Is Charm worth fitting into Mimikyu's moveset to beat physical attackers? Or are there specific reasons for Confide over Charm?
Confide goes through Protect and doesn't miss against evasion items, and Durant has high enough defense to switch back in on physical attackers. Thunder Wave support is more than enough for Glalie, but if that misses you've done nothing whereas Confide is guaranteed to drop anything's Special Attack at least.
Glalie had low speed vs. Chandelure, otherwise I would have been fine with using Frost Breath first and then risking the critical hit from a hidden ability Chandelure that connected on a move with 30% effective accuracy. That was only my 2nd battle against a non-lead Chandelure with this team; in the Maison I could rely on a couple free turns from Chandelure4 attempting Will-o-Wisp or Calm Mind if Glalie had high enough Sp. Def and that appears to be the case this generation as well. Unless the opponent could have Heatran or Durant gets KOed, I'm fine with something around +2 or 3 Speed, Special Attack, and Evasion as long as the other stats besides attack aren't extremely negative since even if Glalie doesn't immediately mow down the rest of the team it can Sub/Protect stall for more boosts, Taunt to prevent bulky resists from healing, or just switch to Mimikyu to let Durant get a 2nd Entrainment off. That battle was extremely unlucky in terms of Glalie's Speed remaining in the -3/-4 range when everything else was +5 or +6 and then running into the only Infiltrator it couldn't OHKO.
But anyway, I just lost, ending my streak at 506. MT8W-WWWW-WWW5-C6AA
NoCheese Edit: the team is discussed at length here.
Choice Scarf Heatran KOed Durant, I set up Glalie and had patently awful Moody boosts when Heatran switched out after the 5th Magma Storm - Accuracy and Attack were at +6 while Special Attack, Accuracy, Evasion, and Speed were at 0 or negative every early on. I hit Kommo-o on the switch with Frost Breath, which would have KOed at +1 or higher (or 2HKOed had Glalie's Speed been at +1 or higher, either one of which would have left Glalie at more than enough health to PP stall Heatran).
Of course, it happens to be Kommo-o-2 rather than any of the other three Preschooler Victor could use when Glalie's Special Defense is high and its Defense and Evasion are still in the shitter after 8 turns. 99.9% of the time that's still going to be fine, but I still couldn't get a boost in Speed, Defense, or Evasion while stalling against it. This will be a recurring theme. At turn 22, I finally get a boost to go from +0 to +2 Speed and am able to KO Kommo-o from behind a Sub. Maybe it was a slight mistake not Protecting there for one extra boost and turn of Leftovers recovery, but if Speed had dropped that following turn Kommo-o would have outsped once again, and my victory was going to rely on stalling Heatran out of Flash Cannon PP.
Heatran comes in and, like Kommo-o, doesn't miss once. When Glalie is forced out for Mimikyu, Heatran uses its 8th of 10 Flash Cannons to activate the Red Card and get switched out. In comes Salamence, which once again (for one of the rare trainers who can use 4 different sets of the same Pokemon) is the toughest set, Mega Mence. In the luckiest thing that happened to me the entire battle, Mimikyu's 90% accurate Thunder Wave does not miss. That gives Glalie the chance to get a free Sub (and all but clinch the battle) with full paralysis, which doesn't happen. Glalie has 2 Protect PP left when it KOs Salamence. Heatran has 2 Flash Cannon PP. Double Protect doesn't work, and just as in the 30+ turns it was out previously, Glalie had no evasion boosts to evade the one attack it would have needed to to pull off the win.
So as you see, that's the kind of battle where Drapion would have had little chance unless it had gotten Evasion boosts within its first 4 Acupressures and then received additional luck in the form of actually evading attacks, whereas with Glalie it took a couple more orders of magnitude's worth of bad Moody luck to steal a victory from me. I suppose going forward a potential Heatran 4 lead is something that would require a first-turn Mimikyu switch-in (using the same logic as the Monty Hall problem), but even then it took such awful luck with the Moody boosts paired with the matchup that I (or anyone else) couldn't lose this battle again without actively trying to do so.
Edit: Here's the link to the rental team if you'd like to try it yourself:
https://3ds.pokemon-gl.com/rentalteam/BT-43F7-AC52
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