BW2 General Metagame Discussion Thread

[Jimbon]

Does anyone think either Pokémon (Zapdos/Raikou) will rise to OU upon the release of its DW ability (Lightning Rod/Volt Absorb respectively)?

I'd think Zapdos would probably move up to OU when Lightningrod gets released. I've been using Specially Defensive Zapdos on a Sand Stall team and in this metagame it is by far it's best set. It's one of the best answers to Tornadus-T without having to use Jirachi and when Lightningrod gets released it will be able to fare just as well against Thundurus-T aswell. Specially Defensive Zapdos also beats Genesect and Scizor, while doing okay against Sheer Force Landorus too. I really can't wait for it's release, I expect it's usage to increase a lot.

As for Raikou, I probably wouldn't expect it to increase to OU. While it does get Lightningrod just like Zapdos, it lacks the recovery that Zapdos has, and can use ever so easily. It doesn't matter if Zapdos is Stealth Rock weak, switch in on Tornadus-T and Roost on it. Raikou has a lot harder time without recovery and cannot perform a defensive role as well as Zapdos. I think Zapdos has a certain niche being there are only a few decent defensive Electric types, and Zapdos is the arguably the most notable of those. That's not to say Raikou won't improve as a result of Lightningrod -- it's still a great offensive check to the therians, and could be used in some Volt Turn chains with Genesect and friends. However, I feel like Zapdos will benefit that much more from it and that will be enough to push it back into OU.

 

[Tobes]

I'd love more of this.

Level theory is the theory that in any gamestate, there are a number of moves that you can perform at that point in time. There's the first level of play, often called Level 0 or Level 1, which is simply making the best move against the Pokemon you are currently facing, without taking into consideration what your opponent is going to do, and only considering confirmed information. The next level up, Level 2, is the level of play where you consider what your opponent is considering, and make a move based off what you think your opponent will do. Double switches are a common form of Level 2 play. Level 3 takes into consideration your opponent's consideration of your own considerations (a sort of one-upsmanship), and so on and so forth, as well as what information has not been revealed yet. At higher levels one begins to consider the information unavailable to oneself, what the opponent likely has that has not been revealed yet, what opponent thinks you have, if the opponent has bought your bluff, and so-on and so-forth.

The theory is that as long as you stay exactly one level ahead of your opponent, and only one level, you'll be winning. It's similar to "staying one step ahead". However, overthinking things can be disastrous, as sometimes a level of play that is multiple levels higher than the opponent can also happen to be the play exactly one level lower than the opponent, aka the worst play possible. This is why you'll sometimes see experienced players complaining about how even though they were playing at a much higher skill level than their opponent, they still lost because the opponent made a move the experienced player would never expect another experienced player to make. It's not so much that the inexperienced player outplayed the experienced player; rather, the experienced player outplayed himself and thus misplayed. Think of it as "Think 100 steps ahead, but only play 1 step ahead." It is important to always be trying to assess what level of play your opponent is at, the range at which they can adjust that level, and how quickly they can adapt to a change in your own level of play. It's an underlying core part of overall prediction.

As you can see this is a rather vague theory, but is one experienced players should understand intuitively and instinctively, even if they have never placed it into such terms. Some people might think this is overexplaining a simple concept, and situations of course aren't always cut and dry. But I think level theory is the best way as a whole to explain the proper prediction process.

 

[alkinesthetase]

similar concept here http://www.sirlin.net/ptw-book/7-yomi-spies-of-the-mind.html

these are basically ways of explaining and theorizing about the concept of prediction, prediction upon prediction, overprediction, etc.

 

[IstheCakeReallyaLie]

This is why you'll sometimes see experienced players complaining about how even though they were playing at a much higher skill level than their opponent, they still lost because the opponent made a move the experienced player would never expect another experienced player to make.

There's a quote for that that goes something like this "The only thing the most experienced player/swordsman/fighter in the world has to fear is the worst.".

 

[NoUserName]

is volt absorb out yet? i don't remember. subcm raikou is legit; it'll improve once it gets its immunity just like zapdos will since that will obviously make it easier to switch in (LR ZD is intense). having to run rash sucks but it's not like aura sphere is crucial when you can just go timid boltbeam+subcm (there aren't really any other good bolt beam subcmers). once volt absorb raikou comes out, jolteon will have a tough time holding its own in OU since raikou is bulkier and has superior movepool, although jolt will always have that sick speed tier going for it. SCARFJOLT WOO

manectric though... nah. fire coverage + switcheroo doesn't make up for those subpar stats.

EDIT @ below: damn i knew volt absorb wasn't out yet. i'm not sure if zd or raikou will become OU after they get their abilities - in fact i rather doubt it - but their usage will definitely go up; it's a pure buff (okay so maybe subroost toxic stalling zd might prefer pressure? maybe?)

Aura Sphere allows Raikou to beat Tyranitar and Ferrothorn.
While Raikou has a more versatile movepool it doesn't have a huge movepool, CM, Screens, Weather Ball and Aura Sphere, in contrast, Jolteon has Work Up and Baton Pass(Volt Switch not blocked by Grounds)

 

[Ricky Horror]

Lightnig Rod Zapdos will ease the pressure from Genesect+Dugtrio(Therian relief as well), Raikou will just be another unknowingly victim.

 

[alkinesthetase]

Aura Sphere allows Raikou to beat Tyranitar and Ferrothorn.
While Raikou has a more versatile movepool it doesn't have a huge movepool, CM, Screens, Weather Ball and Aura Sphere, in contrast, Jolteon has Work Up and Baton Pass(Volt Switch not blocked by Grounds)

subcm raikou doesn't have room for both aura sphere and hp ice; i'd rather have hp ice seeing as it is a boosting set and you can get over lack of super effective coverage if you boost enough. having to run rash is also a huge disadvantage because you can't run max speed and suddenly a shit ton of things outspeed you that shouldn't (modest scarf politoed, max speed 101s-110s of which there are many). aura sphere is not useless, but fighting coverage comes at a high cost on raikou. reduction in sdef is also kind of annoying seeing as that's where most of raikou's bulk lies - you could argue that therefore it can afford to lose some, but it also means that CMing in general is less useful and you still have less bulk overall.

 

[NoUserName]

subcm raikou doesn't have room for both aura sphere and hp ice; i'd rather have hp ice seeing as it is a boosting set and you can get over lack of super effective coverage if you boost enough. having to run rash is also a huge disadvantage because you can't run max speed and suddenly a shit ton of things outspeed you that shouldn't (modest scarf politoed, max speed 101s-110s of which there are many). aura sphere is not useless, but fighting coverage comes at a high cost on raikou. reduction in sdef is also kind of annoying seeing as that's where most of raikou's bulk lies - you could argue that therefore it can afford to lose some, but it also means that CMing in general is less useful and you still have less bulk overall.

Scarf Politoed can outspeed non-Scarf Rash/Timid Raikou anyways, I don't understand what do you want to say saying it.

With Aura Sphere, it has better coverage, but loses speed. Without it, loses coverage but relies more on bulk and outspeeds more mons, also it is protected against status, simply. Two valid approaches, depending on what it is required.

 

[Boondocker]

This is why you'll sometimes see experienced players complaining about how even though they were playing at a much higher skill level than their opponent, they still lost because the opponent made a move the experienced player would never expect another experienced player to make. It's not so much that the inexperienced player outplayed the experienced player; rather, the experienced player outplayed himself and thus misplayed.

By the time its late enough in the game to where 1 play will make or break the game, the experienced player should have an idea of how experienced his opponent is, and thus, have an idea of the moves he/she is likely to make. Therefore that excuse is invalid.

Thats the problem with this game though- you always have to be 1 step ahead of your opponent, not 2 or 4. But you could get lucky and make a move thats 3 or 5 levels ahead. Basically it comes down to even vs odd, or a 50/50% luckfest. Im speaking about play between 2 good players here. Its easy enough to stay exactly 1 level ahead of some noob on the ladder.

 

[Marzbar]

Many Ferrothorns run Protect, I'm not sure what you're talking about.

Okay, switch Espeon in and allow Ferrothorn to escape. Good job doing your job Magnezone. Fairly sure Ferrothron beats Espeon anyway, as uninvested HP Fire is a 4-5HKO on Ferrothorn in rain, and a 2-3HKO out of it. Even max SpAtk Espeon is a 2HKO, and if you accidentally come in on Power Whip GG Espeon. Even Magnezone's 3HKO is really unimpressive, especially when you could have a Pokémon that instead of getting into a war with Ferrothorn could just kill it or threaten it out and take advantage of that and be an overall better help to your team.

Saying you have a spinner is not a legit excuse to say Ferrothorn getting hazards up is irrelevant. You have to take time to spin them away; your opponent isn't just going to let you spin. In the time it takes you to spin, your opponent can steal the momentum and turn the match in his favor.

Regardless, many teams running Ferrothorn are also running rain, so that point is rather inconsequential.

Finally, Kingdra's DD sweeping set is not that impressive in OU. Remember you have only base 95 attack. If you're not taking advantage of rain, it can be rather underwhelming.

I'm not saying (as I've said multiple times) that Magnezone can't do its job well. I'm just saying it's difficult, much harder than you make it out to be when you're playing against an opponent at least as good as you, and I personally think that better ways can be found to deal with Steels.

EDIT: Plus what Arctic said.

I concede a lot of your points. But I don't think Gothitelle handles Steels any better, like people were saying a few pages back.

Don't underestimate Kingdra.

And my Magnezone set is exactly what Lavos Storm posted.

 

[Queen of Randoms]

By the time its late enough in the game to where 1 play will make or break the game, the experienced player should have an idea of how experienced his opponent is, and thus, have an idea of the moves he/she is likely to make. Therefore that excuse is invalid.

Thats the problem with this game though- you always have to be 1 step ahead of your opponent, not 2 or 4. But you could get lucky and make a move thats 3 or 5 levels ahead. Basically it comes down to even vs odd, or a 50/50% luckfest. Im speaking about play between 2 good players here. Its easy enough to stay exactly 1 level ahead of some noob on the ladder.

"Make or Break" moments are not always at the end of the game. A mistake mid-game or early on can lose you a vital Pokémon, allow your opponent to set up, etc. well before you get a good read on your opponent. Therefore, that logic is poor.

And sometimes it really isn't. "Noobs" can make terrible plays that lead to you over-predicting and screwing yourself. It is hard to know exactly where someone's level of skill is at and how to be exactly one step ahead of them regardless. Perhaps they are even better or as good as you and they're just over-predicting and you perceive this as them being a "noob".

 

[alkinesthetase]

the problem is that prediction generally goes in a circle. p1 could do A and p2 could do B to beat it, against which p1 could do C to beat B and p2 could do D to beat C... and p1 can go back to doing A to beat D again. now sometimes the circle is longer, but it usually wraps back around somewhere (again see sirlin's yomi layer theory).

a player might just be inferior and not see past the start of the circle, or they might be so good that they go around the circle all the way to the start because they realize that you're seeing only halfway around the circle. an experienced player will think "okay action A is too obvious, and lures out action B. i'll do action C to counter" and so you, thinking yourself more experienced, might respond "okay ima do action D because my opponent is gonna think A is too obvious and go for C". then suddenly the noob, not seeing C at all, just does A and beats you who chose D. on the other hand it might be someone so pro that they predicted you would predict them to choose C, and chose A intentionally.

you can end up chasing one another around the circle ad infinitum, which is the whole point of the concept, and precisely what makes prediction useful

 

[Princess Bubblegum]

This is why I stall, fuck all of that shit. Ill put my though into team building, Im a complete moron when it comes to battles skills. Occasionally I have to maybe predict a move, but usually that is a the end of the battle (60-100 turns later) and by then I know my opponent and how he plays, which makes prediction a lot easier.

 

[Bl1tzkri3g]

This debate above cycles perfectly into an idea i've been contemplating; the revival of the suicide concept for Gen 5. For those of you who don't know what this is, it involves very minimal switching, relying on pokemon that can set up on each others counters to break through a team. This strategy circumvents the above mindgame of prediction; it instead relies on foresight to set up sweeps. the most famous example can be found here: http://www.smogon.com/forums/showthread.php?t=53728
This team is Gen 4; Im wondering how a similar playstyle may convert to Gen 5. Any thoughts?

 

[Queen of Randoms]

This is why I stall, fuck all of that shit. Ill put my though into team building, Im a complete moron when it comes to battles skills. Occasionally I have to maybe predict a move, but usually that is a the end of the battle (60-100 turns later) and by then I know my opponent and how he plays, which makes prediction a lot easier.

I seem to have the worst luck with stall. I make a solid team and haxhaxhaxhaxcritcritcritcrit I lose. It is my favorite style of play though, and it does ease prediction a lot, I agree.

 

[tehy]

This is why I stall, fuck all of that shit. Ill put my though into team building, Im a complete moron when it comes to battles skills. Occasionally I have to maybe predict a move, but usually that is a the end of the battle (60-100 turns later) and by then I know my opponent and how he plays, which makes prediction a lot easier.

Uhm, i run a stall team too, and i predict plenty. In this metagame, you can't really cover anything-there are just too many pokemon with too much versatility to account for them all so perfectly with six that you don't care about anything. Some teams come close, though.

As for the whole 'prediction levels' thing, yeah, that's sort of how our entire game operates, unless you outspeed and ohko/ 100% wall everything on a team. Usually i end up thinking 3rd and people assume i thought first, and think i'm a total noob. Then i rape them later.
Nice sirlin reference though.

 

[alkinesthetase]

For those of you who don't know what this is, it involves very minimal switching, relying on pokemon that can set up on each others counters to break through a team.

this is basically what hyper offense is in the modern era: a team of 5 attackers plus either a suicide screen/hazard lead or a sixth attacker. the attackers take out each other's counters/checks and have strong ability to revenge kill for one another which reduces the amount of switching mind games you need to play against balanced teams. the idea of a purely suicidal assault, though, is kind of tough in BW. explosion nerf means you can't suddenly blow up your counters (literally), and team preview means your team plan will be obvious from turn 1 which means you're still gonna have to pull off some clutch plays against a skilled opponent to clinch the victory. back in dpp/hgss, nobody could tell right away if your team was psychotically offensive or stally with a single cleanup attacker. all they could see was the mon you had out and they'd have to start figuring out your style from there. there's a lot more information flying around because of team preview in bw and so your opponent will be predicting against you - to win, you inevitably have to return the favor.

even so, no style is free from prediction. i find myself having to predict a lot even when using stall, although i will agree with scarfwynaut in that stall, if it works well, will elongate matches significantly, and having extra data to predict off of makes the process a LOT easier. i guess it's kind of a spectrum. stall has to predict still, but by virtue of drawing out the game, prediction gets easier. hyper offense has to predict as well, but by virtue of sheer power and the relatively suicidal attitude of the team as a whole, can afford to make prediction misplays without losing the game. it's in the middle where the most prediction is required, i guess? everyone thinks about pokemon differently

 

[yee]

Well with stall you don't predict in the same sense as "which move do I pick on my choice user" as much as "how will the other guy be able to win and how can I cut off his path?" There is Voltturn which annoyingly you still sometimes have to 50 / 50 predict against but the prediction is predicting what your opponent's most effective moves are and setting up hazards before they can get the damage done / trapping their lethal pokemon so that you can outlast other teams not able to handle sitting around stalling. Stall vs. stall certainly invovles prediction, theres turn one where you both set up rocks and then seemingly endless possibilities of what both players can do from there.

Since its been brought up a common bugaboo I have with the term "prediction" is that people use it the same way whether they're describing an obvious 50 / 50 guess or if they're thinking about where they can take small risks to achieve great rewards for their game plan, where they will certainly take the risk / reward more than half of the time.

 

[Myzozoa]

For a long time and to this day, I have been very skeptical of prediction as a 'real' element of the competitive battling skill set. I'm pretty smart, but my opponent has close to the same information that I do and he should be smart too. With each player recognizing their winning strategy and looking to cut-off the others' strategy, predictions become blind guesses as each player deeply understands the others' mindset.

In a recent tournament match, my opponent brought Sun against a weather-less team that I am known for using. I lead specs Rotom-w like I always do against sun teams, he leads Genesect. I go for the hydro pump because if he sends in Ninetales it'll take a lot and I can always switch out to one of my many fire resists. His correct play is absolutely to go to Ninetales to survive whatever my Rotom-w does and put Sun on the field for his Chlorophyll user. With the new knowledge of Rotom-W's moveset (he could use a damage calc to find out my item) he can devise a plan to deal with it and it cannot Ohko Ninetales. Instead he switches into Claydol, his rapid spinner, which dies and hands me a massive advantage as Deo-D can set-up the hazards that are the bane of Sun. He probably thought he was being ballsy to predict my Volt-Switch in a tournament match, but really he was being very foolish to take a superfluous risk at the beginning of the match.

It is always better to avoid a 50-50 if you can. Even if you have to take a bit more damage, it's worth it if you can derive some sort of control over the prediction games or avoid a risky 50-50. I always maintain that if someone creates a speed tie, they deserve to lose it because they decided to play the 50-50 rather than thinking of an alternative. I feel the same about 50-50 predictions, they seem like blind guesses. Long term planning is the most important skill in pokemon and prediction should be avoided as much as possible (in a few cases you can't win if you don't predict).

 

[Thorhammer]

For a long time and to this day, I have been very skeptical of prediction as a 'real' element of the competitive battling skill set. I'm pretty smart, but my opponent has close to the same information that I do and he should be smart too. With each player recognizing their winning strategy and looking to cut-off the others' strategy, predictions become blind guesses as each player deeply understands the others' mindset.

In a recent tournament match, my opponent brought Sun against a weather-less team that I am known for using. I lead specs Rotom-w like I always do against sun teams, he leads Genesect. I go for the hydro pump because if he sends in Ninetales it'll take a lot and I can always switch out to one of my many fire resists. His correct play is absolutely to go to Ninetales to survive whatever my Rotom-w does and put Sun on the field for his Chlorophyll user. With the new knowledge of Rotom-W's moveset (he could use a damage calc to find out my item) he can devise a plan to deal with it and it cannot Ohko Ninetales. Instead he switches into Claydol, his rapid spinner, which dies and hands me a massive advantage as Deo-D can set-up the hazards that are the bane of Sun. He probably thought he was being ballsy to predict my Volt-Switch in a tournament match, but really he was being very foolish to take a superfluous risk at the beginning of the match.

It is always better to avoid a 50-50 if you can. Even if you have to take a bit more damage, it's worth it if you can derive some sort of control over the prediction games or avoid a risky 50-50. I always maintain that if someone creates a speed tie, they deserve to lose it because they decided to play the 50-50 rather than thinking of an alternative. I feel the same about 50-50 predictions, they seem like blind guesses. Long term planning is the most important skill in pokemon and prediction should be avoided as much as possible (in a few cases you can't win if you don't predict).

That sounds like not so much of an issue with prediction as just the problem with awful risk analysis. Trying to track what your opponent might do is good, but you don't want to ignore the possibility that your opponent might not go along with your plan and do something that would completely fuck you over if you predicted wrong, if they have such an option.

 

[alkinesthetase]

myzozoa raises a very good point and it's one that i have seen made by other tournament players: often good tournament play is marked by consistency and conservatism. it's all well and good to take risks on ladder; you can just bounce the rating back with more battles. but when you only have one chance to win and there is no rematch, you should really be doing everything in your power to preserve what chances you have, and only take risks when there is no alternative. of course, to never take risk is kind of counterproductive as well, but particularly in myzozoa's example of taking such a big risk so early... i have to agree that's questionable

i remember i read an rmt a long time ago (i think it was kg stall) that remarked on how prediction should always be avoided in pokemon.

For battling strategy, when I play a game of Pokémon I like to have the advantage. A lot of times you hear players talking about needing better prediction. My style in DPP does not demand prediction. If I execute properly I will have the advantage. Having a poor team matchup will result in me having to execute at a higher level. To look at it another way, if you need to predict every move then you don't have the advantage. You are just guessing. By executing at a high level you can know what you are doing because it is less reliant on what move your opponent makes. Then it comes down to moving according to best move your opponent can possibly make. If they move that way, you will maintain the advantage. If they do something else, it is not the best move they could have made anyway and doesn't change the tide of the battle.

food for thought, anyway. obviously, it would be wrong to take kg's statement to the extreme (never predict, function in a vacuum), and that doesn't work in practice, but it's true that prediction is about taking chances, which puts victory at risk.

 

[Electrolyte]

If you really think about it, prediction really doesn't make you 'win matches'. I have never won a single match solely because of one huge good play with great prediction- even if it meant getting a Dragonite to, let's say, +2. Pokemon isn't just one play, nor is it a fight between one pokemon. Especially with experienced teambuilders and players; they never put themselves in a position where should they be predicted they would lose the match. No. Against someone who knows what they're doing, you could get a Latias to +6, but often there is a Quagsire or Scarfed Genesect waiting in the wings. Not only that, but if you watch almost any battle in an international tourney, you'll quickly notice that matches rarely are completely composed of quarrels between advantages between the players. Usually, advantage is not grabbed by a single person for the whole entire match. It fluctuates- sometimes, you have momentum, sometimes your opponent has it. Don't focus all your energy on a single play, because you'll be prone to screwing up afterwards.

In my opinion, winning a match is not one smart play, but a solidified connection between strategy, pokemon, and player. You've got to have a strategy- because you can't make a team with just the goal of 'winning'. It's not going to turn out well. You want to aim for a strategy that will help you win, instead of winning 6 1v1 matchups with astonishing prediction. Find a strategy that will help you beat win any match if you do it successfully, create a team around that strategy, and when battling, just DO it. If you've got to sacrifice a pokemon, then do it. Winning shouldn't really be focused around how you should act against your opponent, but more of how your opponent will respond to you. What counters your strategy? Make sure you've got a solid answer to it. What prevents your strategy from being set up? Prevent that. What are the flaws to your strategy? Cover them up as beast as possible. As a famous quote has always said, it's not the battle that determines the winner, but the preparations made beforehand. Craft your strategy, your team, so that you never put yourself in a rut, where it's a loss-loss or even a win-loss situation.

Just as a side note, I've noticed that there's a higher chance of you making MORE bad plays after making a single one, as well as a higher chance of making MORE good plays after making one.

 

[ginganinja]

If you really think about it, prediction really doesn't make you 'win matches'.

With respect, I 100% disagree. When a battle starts, and the team preview window pops up, I am already predicting. I am predicting what my opponent will lead, what are the likely sets he is using, what his strategy might be, what my strategy should be. You can argue that I am merely setting up a game plan, but prediction is just so important in pokemon, I am amazed that you believe it doesn't win matches. Even during a match, I can see how you play (conservatively / aggressively, etc etc) and then predict your moves. It might be predicting you bringing in your Blissey on my Ninetales so I double switch to my CB Victini, it might be predicting you attempting to bring in Tyrantiar on my Espeon so I use Baton Pass, successfully bring in Dugtrio, trap and kill Tar, and then bring in Ninetales for winning the weather war. Prediction isn't just "one smart play", it might be several. Prediction, put simply is really "thinking ahead", preparing for moves your opponent might make in the future to gain an advantage. It doesn't have to be risky, but it can usually help you if you use it correctly.

 

[bubbly]

Yeah I completely agree with ginga. I've always thought of prediction as the means to facilitate your long term strategy, but it's still completely essential to battling.

 

[SapphSabre777]

Winning a match is always a bit of strategy, a bit of prediction, and a little bit of luck. Obviously relying on luck is a bad idea. Strategies can be overturned and predictions are risk-reward. To me, the winner is the person who makes not only the best moves at the moment, but also the least harmful moves towards themselves.