Odinwolf said:
It is entirely possible that DT won't necessarily overcentralize the game and its entirely possible that even if it centralizes the game to some extent, we'll still end up with some kind of balanced game to play. However, will it be *better* than what we've got now? The general consensus is no. It will either introduce wild variances in match outcomes or the "balanced" version of the game will be so boring and/or frustrating that competitive players won't be interested in playing that way.
As insulting as it might sound: I'm willing to go out on a limb here and say that the "general consensus" is ignorant. Without a playtest, it is impossible to determine that kind of information. And as far as I know, there was never a test for DT Ban in the D/P era. If I'm wrong, I'll retract this statement. But as far as I know... the "general public's" ignorance on this issue speaks for itself.
The only thing here I want to point out is you don't have a small chance to randomly negate their Double Team the way you can wake up from Sleep. Once Double Team is up, you either have to Haze them, minimize the evasion with stuff like Gravity, or kill them. Phazing isn't all that viable considering all the phazing options can miss.
Erm... or you can just wall them. Double Team implies that they don't have a Choice Item, so the most powerful Item you can use is a Life Orb. Second, your pokemon either has 2 attacks or 3 attacks. In the case of 3 attacks, it is most likely walled: Even Life Orb Lucario cannot 2-hit KO Blissey with Aura Sphere.
In the case of 2 attacks, there is a Pokemon that resists every single double-attack combo in the game with exception of Fight/Dragon (which is walled by Bronzong b/c non-STAB Brick Break is weak), and Fight / Ghost (Which Blissey most likely walls). So even if you stat-up after the Dragon Dance, there is a pokemon that will be able to wall your offense. Ground / Dragon is walled by Bronzong and Skarm, Fire / Dragon by Heatran... etc. etc.
Period. Once you drop yourself to 3 attacks only, the game changes. You cannot run a heavy offense, Double Team forces the DT user on the defensive... while giving your opponent's offensive a 75% chance of working every single turn.
Ultimately I ask: why is phazing not the answer, when most double teamers can and probably will be walled? On the other side of the coin: if you Double Team a billion times with a defensive unit... what do you gain?
Most online Pokemon websites have rules that are similar to Smogon's, so other people do care. Evasion won't change the game enough to make Smogon suck at JAA. However, just because it might not be absolutely terrible and centralizing (though I think that an Ice Beam/Calm Mind/Psychic/Double Team Cresselia would be tough), doesn't mean that it should be allowed.
+6 Cresselia Psychic with 252 Sp. Atk is walled by Blissey. Despite the fact it took you 12 turns to set up. (it 3-hit KOs Blissey at best)
+6 Cresselia Psychic with 0 EVs 4-hit KOs Blissey after you factor in Leftovers. Oh whats this? Blissey gets Calm Mind? Well... good luck getting through that wall.
+6 Cresselia Psychic does laughable amounts of Damage to Bronzong, and Ice Beam doesn't scratch him either.
You cannot possibly win with a strategy like that. The whole idea of Cresselia without recovery and two attacks that cannot even OHKO a 0/0 Weavile with +6 boosts, a Life Orb, 252 Sp. Atk EVs and a Modest Personality is completely and utterly ridiculous.
Lets say you do manage to Double Team up a few times. I switch in Weavile: You're looking at a 6 to 10 hit KO on Weavile, depending on your Attack EVs.
Weavile only has to hit you 3 or 4 times for you to die, assuming you have max out defense (aka: the 10 hit KO). 2/3 times if you throw in a Choice Band. If you went for the 6-hit KO (ala 252 Sp. Attack), Weavile only has to smack you 3 times... or 2 times with a Choice Band.
For some damage calcs: Weavile is 3-hit KOed by +6 Defensive Cresselia, and 2-hit KOed by +6 Offensive Cresselia.
So unless you managed to get 6 Double Teams up (which sets up the 3 to 1 miss / hit ratio), Weavile will win.
EVEN if you get 6 Double Teams up, Cresselia will only win about 50% of the time.
Okay, lets say you manage to max out DT and then Calm Mind up 6 times. You still are walled by Bronzong and Blissey, and Weavile isn't OHKOed (meaning CB Weavile still has a non-zero chance of 2-hit KOing your Cresselia, despite you setting up for 12 turns in a row). Actually, the chance of CB Weavile defeating your Cresselia after getting fully set up with +6 DTs and +6 Calm Minds is approximately 11%. Well, it is higher than that because Night Slash Critical will OHKO offensive Cresselia, and a crit on either hit will KO defensive Cresselia.
Seriously, DT / Calm Mind / Ice Beam / Psychic Cresselia is a very bad set. You can't even OHKO Steel Wormadam...
Thunder Wave also lowers speed, and that's the larger reason why it's used (for me, at least), so it has a "skill" element as a part of it, as well, but I'm sure you knew that when you posted he above.
So... because T-Wave is a better attack... it requires more skill to use??? If anything, that supports the DT argument, because it would take more skill to use DT correctly than T-Wave. T-Wave, you get lower speed and the hax for free. DT, you get the hax, but no speed loss... which is useful in far less circumstances than T-Wave. Meaning it would require more team building and more cohesion to pull off a successful DT than to pull off a successful T-Wave.
@Garo: Yeah, but if I have a 75% "chance" of winning a single battle, won't it be likely for me to win about 75% of my battles in total?
Yup. Oh wait... 75% "chance" of winning a single battle correlates to the 75% chance that double-team does nothing. If you're using double team, that is actually the 25% piece of the pie for you. Meaning you've lost 75% of your battles because you wasted your turns Double Teaming instead of doing something useful.
I've done the battle calculations for you. It has already been shown that Double Team on the average is a worse attack than Cosmic Power. If someone "wins" with Double Team, chances are they would have won if they used Cosmic Power.
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With all of this talk about banning "Haxxy" attacks, how about this one. Confuse Ray / Swagger. A single confuse ray is as effective of
3 turns of Double Team... except you manage to pull it off in a single turn (50% chance of enemy confusion).
Actually, it goes beyond that. Confuse Ray even prevents the opponent from Roosting, Resting, Recovering... and all of the "counters" to Double Team that we talked about are completely vulnerable to confusion hax. Yawn, and even "perfect accuracy moves" like Vital Throw, Aura Sphere, Aerial Ace and Swift's accuracy is reduced to 50% because of the way Confusion Works. Even No Guard Machamp can't do anything when it hits itself in confusion.
At least with double team, you can neutralize the effects with a multitude of attacks and even abilities. Confuse Ray and Swagger? Nope, nada. You're practically forced to use Slowbro.