Ice Scales is still legal and will likely remain as such forever. The main advantage fur coat has over it is the fact that physical moves are decently more common than special ones.Idk when I played with ice scales legal, I felt that was broken. This feels even more broken, about as bad as the sturdy Shedinja
Ah, my bad, I misunderstood the poll at the top of the thread. That makes sense, thank you.Ice Scales is still legal and will likely remain as such forever. The main advantage fur coat has over it is the fact that physical moves are decently more common than special ones.
Any eviolite stall + fur coat seems to win 70%+ for me lolI'm starting to lean more towards ban than unban than before, but I'm still not so sure about voting ban. It might be that my luck is typically so bad that Magic Guard-Life Orb tends to screw me over in the long term compared to Choice items or Weakness Policy (any ability manipulation grants your MGLO mon a quick-acting death sentence, and your damage output sucks compared to picking an ability that actually boosts offences, so your opponents have time to roll ability manipulation), but the biggest thing (from my personal experience) pushing me towards voting ban is how it starts restricting my teambuilding.
I've noticed that my double Enamorus-Therian team is losing noticeably more often than before the suspect test: enough so it drops to my average win rate (which I suspect is around 60% to 2/3's of the time). It's at the point where I'm subbing in Mega Ampharos instead on my suspect test teams.
...and honestly, my Fur Coat Glastrier + Mega Ampharos team (inspired by some of the suspect test teams here) is winning no more often than my suspect test double Wishiwashi-School team, and given that Glastrier often gets KOed first(!!!), it might not actually be winning more often than my pre-suspect test double Enamorus-Therian team in the current meta.
My personal finding is that Mold Breaker and clones still suck at providing damage on average compared to flat damage boosts like Download (the Mega Ampharos from my new team above used to have Teravolt for a good 3 games before I went back to semi-good old Download).
Teambuilding-wise, it's starting to feel like the meta is swinging strongly towards bulky special attackers at the expense of physical attack, and I'm not sure that a meta where my best chances of breaking are with Mega Ampharos and Wishiwashi-School, with Enamorus-Therian's glory days already over, let alone Glastrier/Ursaluna/Mega Heracross's, is a meta that I support.
(For the record, my record with even double Dusclops teams has always been pretty mediocre: I never could break 1400 with them.)
The major thing preventing me from voting to ban Fur Coat is that I cannot seem to build a Fur Coat team that wins 70% of the time on the ladder (at peak, my double Enamorus-Therian team did feel that good pre-suspect test), and my pre-suspect test teams seem to have kept their rough win percentages from before except for that Enamo-T team. Honestly, Fur Coat feels no better on defensive mons than Unaware, and my win percentage with defensive teams tanked pre-suspect test with any ability other than Unaware (double Flarelm, with one of them being Flower Veil, kept losing compared to double Dusclops).
(she/her pls)TLDR: I agree with Pyuk when he said " Fur Coat is just free money in the damage economy. Might as well unban Huge Power. "
I agree with basically everything you say here, all I can really add is insights I have from lots of simulated games. I mentioned Mold Breaker not as an argument for unbanning, but because its the only archetype that can consistently beat the best Fur Coat teams with notably better odds than a coin flip. Even double mega Amphy is only slightly favoured in the long run. (and you kinda have to run Plus/Minus because of the download tech you mention). One particular demon that I know is good but dont want to actually use is Fur Coat mega hera, which is better than intrepid according to the sims too. Offence and Stall at the same time, such fun! I have a much cleaner conscience using Mold Breaker mega hera or the good old Intrepid HO one.(she/her pls)
Offense loves to stack multipliers as much as it can because this maximizes its average damage output; for example, the average of 2.25 (1.5 * 1.5) and 1 is 1.625, while the average of 1.5 and 1.5 is just 1.5. However, by this same principle, defense must use its defensive multipliers to equalize the damage it receives, so leaning hard into physical defense with Fur Coat leaves it more vulnerable to a balanced offense if it runs +Def instead of +SpD.
With all that said, if defense hopes to counter a leaning offense, it needs to lean just as hard in the same direction to equalize the damage, and the Metronome meta leans physical by default thanks to the distribution of possible moves and the lack of a special counterpart to Intrepid Sword (if you aren't adjusting your spreads to make Download give physical attack boosts in the Fur Coat meta, you should be). Also, Fur Coat really is free money; it's not like running Fur Coat somehow makes you weaker to a balanced offense than running no ability at all. After all, it's still the single biggest reduction in damage taken available in an ability short of an uncontested Intimidate.
This brings me to Mold Breaker, which handily ignores Fur Coat, Fluffy, Ice Scales, Unaware, Magic Bounce, Flower Veil, Sturdy, and Wonder Guard. "Just run Mold Breaker" is not an argument to unban Wonder Guard, it didn't keep Sturdy Shedinja from being rebanned, and it should not be an argument for unbanning Fur Coat. You might as well unban Huge Power since it loses to Imposter. ;)
Although... before the Fur Coat suspect, the Metronome meta was loosely based around the Rock-Paper-Scissors relationship between offense, stall, and Imposter. The argument to keep Fur Coat banned is partly that it allows stall to beat offense while still beating Imposter, putting it at the apex of the metagame. However, Mold Breaker seems to work as the reverse of Imposter, beating stall that isn't Intimidate/Dauntless Shield while losing to offense. Thus, if Fur Coat really does make stall too strong for offense, we need only replace our Imposter teams for Mold Breaker teams and the meta is "balanced" once again... right? The thing is, I'm not sure Mold Breaker actually "beats" stall. It doesn't have any other effects, so at best it essentially just trades abilities one-for-one (or occasionally one-for-two vs. some Flower Veil teams), and at worst it gives up a precious ability slot for no effect whatsoever.
Does this count for tc badge? Anyways, in my first ten games, 70% of my oops forfeit as soon as they lost one mon, wtf?
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