The ultimate Blissey Imposter counteri have obtained an honest win with a pair of truant slakoths, i can now move onto something more difficult and obscure
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Format Discussion Metronome Battle
- Thread starter Ivy
- Start date
Now win with 2 life orb shucklesi have obtained an honest win with a pair of truant slakoths, i can now move onto something more difficult and obscure
Do you think it is possible for the worst team to win against a "normal" team by luck? Or would the worst team be so bad that it could never possibly win?
It’s definitely possible — both of the opponent’s Pokémon could use Memento Turn 1, for example.
It’s not likely but it’s possible.
On a related topic I did a personal challenge in Gen 7 to try winning with each level decreasing after a win using Simple Shaymin and got down to level 75 before I decided to stop (replay), though I think a lot of people may not have been using full EVs still so that might be harder today. It would be interesting to see how far a point you can still put up a decent fight with, but as mentioned luck can definitely force a win like with a T1 Explosion OHKO as well.
Happy November and end of daylight savings! As the flow of time reverses once more before the year approaches its end, we can take the season of remembrance to look back on October and be thankful for the echoes we leave behind.
In other Smogon news, the current CAP 35 in progress is looking to be an Electric/Normal type with a 136 HP / 73 Atk / 81 Def / 90 SpA / 98 SpD / 56 Spe (534 BST) stat spread which is pretty solid.
https://www.smogon.com/stats/2024-10/gen9metronomebattle-1630.txt
https://www.smogon.com/stats/2024-10/moveset/gen9metronomebattle-1630.txt
The battle count rises yet more up to 36561, breaking through the 30k threshold again.
October 2024: 1630-weighted top 10 + last month positions:
#1: Mega Venusaur (no change)
#2: Mega Heracross (no change)
#3: Blissey (#6)
#4: Pecharunt (#3)
#5: Mega Ampharos (#4)
#6: Ting-Lu (#5)
#7: Mega Sableye (no change)
#8: Mega Slowbro (no change)
#9: Type: Null (#13)
#10: Necturna (#11)
Not much has changed but Blissey stakes a claim for the top 3 while Ting-Lu slips yet further down the ranks reaching a new low again. Though as Slakoth has showed though, Blissey is not infallible. As for dark horses, Guzzlord makes a decent showing for itself in #22 with about half the uses of its surroundings, and Mega Pinsir makes #31 above Regirock and Mega Gardevoir, but there's a very big one that gave some red flags and turned this whole story around.
A name that immediately stuck out to me was Rotom-Wash at #17 as a mon I have not seen particularly talked about at all, yet suddenly breaking 1000 uses, and even in September it only reached 17 uses with even less in the prior months. If I had to guess, this would mark the return of hippobotas who I once noted in February 2021 as picking from a random selection of mons that seems to be consistent, including the notable choice of Rotom-Wash as a clear indicator of bot influence, and it seems like based on their replays they are indeed active again and using tera stellar in slot 1, as well as most of the mons placing from 11-17 (Mega Heracross, Mega Venusaur, Blissey, Mega Sableye, Mega Camerupt, Mega Slowbro, Snorlax, Rotom-Wash, Landorus-Therian, + Pecharunt, Ting-Lu, Swampert, Type: Null, Mega Ampharos noticed this time). My condolences to the person who was getting salty dealing with the bot but thanks for all the sample replays. To everyone else, I guess you can better know a matchup even though the bot still uses random picks anyway. And to hippobotas I still respect the unique nicknames per mon.
An example of bot influence.
With this in mind, it pretty much skews most of the top usage stats even higher, and moveset stats towards stellar tera types and such, so I'll just go into the viability ceilings (highest GXE of a user that used a mon) for now. Blissey has a major lead with 85, ahead of both Venusaur and Necturna's 82 and Heracross's 81, but 80 is tied with Zapdos and base Pikachu (not -Starter, still Imposter), though it doesn't look like they were particular partners. Following up at 79 are Ting-Lu (Simple/WP from the bot mostly), Dragonite/Salamence/Kommo-o all with some degree of Aerilate use though Kommo-o is mostly Bulletproof, as well as Magic Bounce Revenankh which seems to be the pair with Dragonite and Salamence/Kommo-o being their own duo, and lastly we have Friend Guard Dusclops, Mega Altaria (pretty divided between Pixilate/Pickup/Good as Gold/Magic Bounce/Contrary) and Mega Kangaskhan (mainly Good as Gold and Mirror Herb) in 78.
I'll leave off there, but the moveset stats should provide some good insight on the bot's sets in case you're wondering, though its success is probably more just due to sheer time than any particular strategy to be mimicked by a human. I guess I will point out the Rotom-Wash in particular as its trademark mon to me, being Levitate/Choice Specs/Quiet and having a viability ceiling of 70.
lmao sry ab that here's my take on my bot. pls lmk y'alls thoughts
pros: def shortens queue time, esp in deader hours / is funny (to me)
cons: poisons usage stats / can be annoying if it's all you can play vs
i've been trying to limit it to 1 match at a time and also not have it laddering all the time (i'd estimate maybe like 70% of the time it was laddering). should I reduce frequency? most of the sets in there are relatively 4fun. should this change? are there other issues i've overlooked?
i will confirm that it picks 2 sets uniformly at random w/o replacement from a pool. if it makes analysis too annoying i can make it stop lol
btw the bot had ~10k battles this month (and peaked #2!! wow!!)
pros: def shortens queue time, esp in deader hours / is funny (to me)
cons: poisons usage stats / can be annoying if it's all you can play vs
i've been trying to limit it to 1 match at a time and also not have it laddering all the time (i'd estimate maybe like 70% of the time it was laddering). should I reduce frequency? most of the sets in there are relatively 4fun. should this change? are there other issues i've overlooked?
i will confirm that it picks 2 sets uniformly at random w/o replacement from a pool. if it makes analysis too annoying i can make it stop lol
btw the bot had ~10k battles this month (and peaked #2!! wow!!)
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Oh hey. I don't really see it as that much of a problem myself, just another factor to take in account as to why things are happening, which is interesting enough with not much else going on in the way of the meta. Personally I don't mind bot games just to have more games going since the quality of play doesn't really matter, though I haven't been on the actual ladder lately so I can't speak for everyone today, but hitting 10k battles seems like a pretty informing reflection of the ladder.
been on the metronome ladder a fair bit to test the new suspect system as well as for my own fun (see, 9 games to win w/ lo shuckle) and its nice to not have to wait too long for games. im a fan of the bot, but i also dont care much for usage stats for this gamemode
I don't mind the statistical anomalies; the work you're doing to keep the format alive more than makes up for it my friend (:
Made it into the top 10!
Update:
Wanted to share the set I've been predominantly using:
Pecharunt @ Kee Berry
Ability: Good as Gold
Shiny: Yes
Tera Type: Poison
EVs: 252 HP / 252 Atk / 252 Def / 252 SpA / 252 SpD / 252 Spe
Relaxed Nature
- Metronome
Heracross-Mega @ Choice Band
Ability: Intrepid Sword
Tera Type: Ghost
EVs: 252 HP / 252 Atk / 252 Def / 252 SpA / 252 SpD / 252 Spe
Brave Nature
- Metronome
I've done some experimenting with other teams, and I've also switched up the sides they're on since that can influence things like Blissey Teras. I've also discovered a couple things about the format generally:
Pecharunt @ Kee Berry
Ability: Good as Gold
Shiny: Yes
Tera Type: Poison
EVs: 252 HP / 252 Atk / 252 Def / 252 SpA / 252 SpD / 252 Spe
Relaxed Nature
- Metronome
Heracross-Mega @ Choice Band
Ability: Intrepid Sword
Tera Type: Ghost
EVs: 252 HP / 252 Atk / 252 Def / 252 SpA / 252 SpD / 252 Spe
Brave Nature
- Metronome
I've done some experimenting with other teams, and I've also switched up the sides they're on since that can influence things like Blissey Teras. I've also discovered a couple things about the format generally:
- The Ghost type generally is CRAZY good
- A team structure of "one killy, one tanky" tends to work well
- Metronome battles are really fun
Great progress dedede. It's interesting to see which individual choices people end up figuring out a feel for through personal experience, and I tend to like asymmetric teams too. I feel like I personally underrate Good as Gold and can't help but opt for Magic Bounce after so long, but I do like that they are very different options in practice.
And so, December has arrived. Whether finally starting to wind down or still keeping busy, life goes on while another year comes to its close. It's kind of an arbitrary point to set a marker at, but it feels like a manageable enough block of time to look back on, even with the 2020s just barely getting more distinct. It's like a day's cycle of forming your preferred approach with the options available, not being able to know who you'll encounter or what fate will have in store for the world, and going forth with resolution, accepting the given outcome at the end, yet coming back anyway to try to change it for the next time.
This month will mark a year since DLC2 released for SV's last major update. Things have pretty much settled in for a while, though Toxic Chain got banned in between, but at least 2025 will bring about some new options with the coming release of Legends Z-A. In other Smogon news, the new Electric/Normal CAP (136 HP / 73 Atk / 81 Def / 90 SpA / 98 SpD / 56 Spe) mentioned last time has since released and is usable on Showdown. It is an ox named Shox.
https://www.smogon.com/stats/2024-11/gen9metronomebattle-1630.txt
https://www.smogon.com/stats/2024-11/moveset/gen9metronomebattle-1630.txt
The battle count has fallen a bit to 31948, but is still hanging above 30k, which overall is still solid relative to the rest of the year.
#2: Blissey (#3)
#3: Mega Ampharos (#5)
#4: Pecharunt (no change)
#5: Mega Venusaur (#1)
#6: Ting-Lu (no change)
#7: Mega Sableye (no change)
#8: Type: Null (#9)
#9: Mega Slowbro (#8)
#10: Wishiwashi-School (#15)
So, not a lot has changed as a whole, but there are a few main things of note like the big frog in the room. The hippobotas bot is still doing its thing outside the top 10 as noted last month. Rotom-Wash is at #16 which is my general reference point for pure bot usage, but I also overlooked Wishiwashi-School in my list of bot mons last time which immediately came back to bite me now when it got to #10, but at least I won't forget to address it again. Its main sets seem to be Ice Scales/Choice Specs with Life Orb/Magic Guard having about a third of usage, and I assume the bot is the former.
On the other hand, after maintaining a dominant #1 position for almost all of 2024 (except for June 2024 when it was #2 to Pecharunt), Mega Venusaur has fallen back down below the top 2 to #5 for the first time since August 2023, hanging back with its old partner Ting-Lu. Now 2024 isn't over just yet, but it's an interesting turn of events to keep an eye on. Even Venusaur's raw usage has been falling behind Heracross's in the last few months, though it still is #2 in raw usage. Has the coming of bot-powered rivals brought about a resurgence of parity as a new era begins, or are humans also moving on from the idea of Venusaur being a necessity as well? Hard to say. I don't see it getting much lower than this with it still having >10% weighted usage, but it more shows how these other mons have proven themselves in their own right.
The dark horse of the month I want to highlight is Mega Banette at #19 with 899 (moveset file) raw uses, just above the high uses of Dusclops, Dragapult, Hisuian Zoroark, and also Guzzlord who is also pretty much a dark horse with 729 uses. Raging Bolt at #32 this month and #30 last month is also noteworthy for a mon that hasn't really been highlighted in discussion, though I guess it has a memorable design with notably high BST, and admittedly it seems to mainly be used as a Ting-Lu partner with Good as Gold/Covert Cloak.
Over in the moveset file, I just want to start off with the viability ceilings (highest GXE of a user using a given mon) because they are also immediately raising the standard. Starting off we have an 88 viability ceiling on Type: Null and Dusclops representing Friend Guard/Eviolite bonkstall. I feel like this might be a record for the highest viability ceiling ever seen in these stats, and I'm not sure what the next highest candidate would be off the top of my head. Even if it's just on a new account going on an absurd run, it's still a notable first compared to anything else I can remember so far.
Following up from that is Ting-Lu alone at 84, favouring Simple/Weakness Policy. Then in 82, you have Dragapult and Blacephalon, just doing a lot of weird and varied mixed things as Dragapult usually does. Magic Bounce, Good as Gold, Magic Guard, and Technician all have >10% weighted usage, and the items are mainly Choice Band/Normalium Z/Mirror Herb. Blacephalon itself also has a decent amount of >1000 raw usage at #30 and is surprisingly split between Beads of Ruin, Levitate, Prankster, Storm Drain. Even its item slot is mostly Choice Specs with noticeable runner up Choice Band usage.
So at this point there's been 5 mons and none of them are in the top 5 of weighted usage, but that immediately changes at 81 with Venusaur and Heracross, still close in one area at least. Something I just noticed is that Defiant has been creeping back up on Heracross's usage, in September it was still ~8% but suddenly jumped up to 30% since October and is still around there, though on second thought this is probably also due to hippobotas judging from the Stellar usage. I suspect the same applies for Magic Bounce usage on Venusaur.
There's still one last mon at 80 and that is Pecharunt, which would be thematic if it was at 88 too. The above Kee Berry/Good as Gold set seems well represented but I also see Maranga Berry and Ice Scales which I assume is from the bot by elimination, though Kee Berry is above Maranga Berry and Ice Scales is still classically high. Lastly to round out to the top 11 mons, there is a three-way tie at 79 between Ampharos, Sableye, and Pinsir, with the latter seeming to focus on Sword of Ruin support for Heracross. I feel like this might be the highest point I've had to end off at by hitting enough mons, and having 8 mons in the 80s together also feels like some kind of record. Thanks for your reading.
And so, December has arrived. Whether finally starting to wind down or still keeping busy, life goes on while another year comes to its close. It's kind of an arbitrary point to set a marker at, but it feels like a manageable enough block of time to look back on, even with the 2020s just barely getting more distinct. It's like a day's cycle of forming your preferred approach with the options available, not being able to know who you'll encounter or what fate will have in store for the world, and going forth with resolution, accepting the given outcome at the end, yet coming back anyway to try to change it for the next time.
This month will mark a year since DLC2 released for SV's last major update. Things have pretty much settled in for a while, though Toxic Chain got banned in between, but at least 2025 will bring about some new options with the coming release of Legends Z-A. In other Smogon news, the new Electric/Normal CAP (136 HP / 73 Atk / 81 Def / 90 SpA / 98 SpD / 56 Spe) mentioned last time has since released and is usable on Showdown. It is an ox named Shox.
https://www.smogon.com/stats/2024-11/gen9metronomebattle-1630.txt
https://www.smogon.com/stats/2024-11/moveset/gen9metronomebattle-1630.txt
The battle count has fallen a bit to 31948, but is still hanging above 30k, which overall is still solid relative to the rest of the year.
November 2024: 1630-weighted top 10 + last month positions:
#1: Mega Heracross (#2)#2: Blissey (#3)
#3: Mega Ampharos (#5)
#4: Pecharunt (no change)
#5: Mega Venusaur (#1)
#6: Ting-Lu (no change)
#7: Mega Sableye (no change)
#8: Type: Null (#9)
#9: Mega Slowbro (#8)
#10: Wishiwashi-School (#15)
So, not a lot has changed as a whole, but there are a few main things of note like the big frog in the room. The hippobotas bot is still doing its thing outside the top 10 as noted last month. Rotom-Wash is at #16 which is my general reference point for pure bot usage, but I also overlooked Wishiwashi-School in my list of bot mons last time which immediately came back to bite me now when it got to #10, but at least I won't forget to address it again. Its main sets seem to be Ice Scales/Choice Specs with Life Orb/Magic Guard having about a third of usage, and I assume the bot is the former.
On the other hand, after maintaining a dominant #1 position for almost all of 2024 (except for June 2024 when it was #2 to Pecharunt), Mega Venusaur has fallen back down below the top 2 to #5 for the first time since August 2023, hanging back with its old partner Ting-Lu. Now 2024 isn't over just yet, but it's an interesting turn of events to keep an eye on. Even Venusaur's raw usage has been falling behind Heracross's in the last few months, though it still is #2 in raw usage. Has the coming of bot-powered rivals brought about a resurgence of parity as a new era begins, or are humans also moving on from the idea of Venusaur being a necessity as well? Hard to say. I don't see it getting much lower than this with it still having >10% weighted usage, but it more shows how these other mons have proven themselves in their own right.
The dark horse of the month I want to highlight is Mega Banette at #19 with 899 (moveset file) raw uses, just above the high uses of Dusclops, Dragapult, Hisuian Zoroark, and also Guzzlord who is also pretty much a dark horse with 729 uses. Raging Bolt at #32 this month and #30 last month is also noteworthy for a mon that hasn't really been highlighted in discussion, though I guess it has a memorable design with notably high BST, and admittedly it seems to mainly be used as a Ting-Lu partner with Good as Gold/Covert Cloak.
Over in the moveset file, I just want to start off with the viability ceilings (highest GXE of a user using a given mon) because they are also immediately raising the standard. Starting off we have an 88 viability ceiling on Type: Null and Dusclops representing Friend Guard/Eviolite bonkstall. I feel like this might be a record for the highest viability ceiling ever seen in these stats, and I'm not sure what the next highest candidate would be off the top of my head. Even if it's just on a new account going on an absurd run, it's still a notable first compared to anything else I can remember so far.
Following up from that is Ting-Lu alone at 84, favouring Simple/Weakness Policy. Then in 82, you have Dragapult and Blacephalon, just doing a lot of weird and varied mixed things as Dragapult usually does. Magic Bounce, Good as Gold, Magic Guard, and Technician all have >10% weighted usage, and the items are mainly Choice Band/Normalium Z/Mirror Herb. Blacephalon itself also has a decent amount of >1000 raw usage at #30 and is surprisingly split between Beads of Ruin, Levitate, Prankster, Storm Drain. Even its item slot is mostly Choice Specs with noticeable runner up Choice Band usage.
So at this point there's been 5 mons and none of them are in the top 5 of weighted usage, but that immediately changes at 81 with Venusaur and Heracross, still close in one area at least. Something I just noticed is that Defiant has been creeping back up on Heracross's usage, in September it was still ~8% but suddenly jumped up to 30% since October and is still around there, though on second thought this is probably also due to hippobotas judging from the Stellar usage. I suspect the same applies for Magic Bounce usage on Venusaur.
There's still one last mon at 80 and that is Pecharunt, which would be thematic if it was at 88 too. The above Kee Berry/Good as Gold set seems well represented but I also see Maranga Berry and Ice Scales which I assume is from the bot by elimination, though Kee Berry is above Maranga Berry and Ice Scales is still classically high. Lastly to round out to the top 11 mons, there is a three-way tie at 79 between Ampharos, Sableye, and Pinsir, with the latter seeming to focus on Sword of Ruin support for Heracross. I feel like this might be the highest point I've had to end off at by hitting enough mons, and having 8 mons in the 80s together also feels like some kind of record. Thanks for your reading.
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recently hit #1 on the ladder so i figured i'd share my team
stinky (Pecharunt) @ Weakness Policy
Ability: Ice Scales
Tera Type: Stellar
EVs: 252 HP / 252 Atk / 252 Def / 252 SpA / 252 SpD
Relaxed Nature
IVs: 0 Spe
- Metronome
smelly (Pecharunt) @ Weakness Policy
Ability: Ice Scales
Tera Type: Stellar
EVs: 252 HP / 252 Atk / 252 Def / 252 SpA / 252 SpD
Relaxed Nature
IVs: 0 Spe
- Metronome
pecharunt is essentially made for this format in my opinion - immune to normal moves, immune to toxic, decent attacking stats and insane bulk (especially with ice scales)
weakness policy is the main win condition but even in match ups where it doesn't matter much (mostly against imposter blissey) these two still tend to win because it takes a big hitter to knock them out effectively
really been loving this format, has been fun playing against y'all :3
stinky (Pecharunt) @ Weakness Policy
Ability: Ice Scales
Tera Type: Stellar
EVs: 252 HP / 252 Atk / 252 Def / 252 SpA / 252 SpD
Relaxed Nature
IVs: 0 Spe
- Metronome
smelly (Pecharunt) @ Weakness Policy
Ability: Ice Scales
Tera Type: Stellar
EVs: 252 HP / 252 Atk / 252 Def / 252 SpA / 252 SpD
Relaxed Nature
IVs: 0 Spe
- Metronome
pecharunt is essentially made for this format in my opinion - immune to normal moves, immune to toxic, decent attacking stats and insane bulk (especially with ice scales)
weakness policy is the main win condition but even in match ups where it doesn't matter much (mostly against imposter blissey) these two still tend to win because it takes a big hitter to knock them out effectively
really been loving this format, has been fun playing against y'all :3
btw where is the team that has hippopotas in it should make one just for the memes
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9metronomebattle-2268977178-94r1r2smgzykp3ctb61ur1py3nap3pgpw won my 400th metronome battle
Got #1 on ladder with this team too after a crazy run this evening, this setup feels great with the Pecharunts having enough bulk to take hits that proc weakness policy even against intrepid sword mega cross or other 2x atk/spec atk pokemon.
Also just got back into this format since gen 8, what's the game plan with tera?
I get Stellar or ghost is ideal but is it better to activate at the start of each duel or is it more ideal to use it midway though on a pkm that has better positioning for the end game.
I think in nearly every circumstance immediate tera is best. Let's say you tera turn 6. Even if the expected value from your "well-positioned" tera is 2x the value generated from a turn 1 tera mon, you won't outpace the turn 1 tera until after turn 11. There's never any guarantee that metronome games last that long, and claiming a well positioned tera generates 2x EV from your turn 1 tera is also a stretch.
Basically there are two competing effects here: Early tera = more turns * lower value per turn, Later tera = less turns * higher value per turn
No matter when you do this "late tera," I claim (based on vibes) that the effect of more turns always, on average, outweighs the higher value per turn from late tera.
I commonly late Tera with a mon using Weakness Policy (e.g. Ampharos-Mega on double Mega Amph teams). Weakness Policy's value plummets on mons with few weaknesses (e.g. every single mon that has gone Tera Ghost), and I prefer the safety net of Tera Ghost over the damage bonus of Tera Stellar (which encourages Terastallizing ASAP).
I was playing some double Stellar tera offense earlier this month and I was thinking about this dilemma often. It might just be a fallacy, but my purely vibe-based approach in that case was waiting for turn 2 to see which mon looked healthier to make myself feel better than just deciding randomly turn 1 and feeling like my arbitrary choice was a waste. On the other hand, the bot seems to do well enough just pushing stellar tera on everything turn 1 all the time, so maybe it's just a mental barrier with the additional click, I don't know. It's a good question though.
Something pretty interesting I just noticed as well is that the teambuilder now links to this thread, as well as the format's new Smogon dex page, which seem to be recent additions within the month.
By Boogity you're right. I requested the /formathelp entry on PS, but it looks like these were added too. I've submitted a description for the smogdex page that should hopefully be implemented soon.
So I was having a nice night getting ready to wind down, until I was nerdsniped by this thread claiming Metronome is the prime way to reverse engineer Showdown RNG seeds and predict every random outcome of a battle.
(Also before that, I found out Metronome is in a team tour which was also interesting and kind of led to finding this but wasn't really related directly.)
Notably there are some varied takes on how it would affect the Metronome Battle meta, from having no effect to breaking everything. Like most dichotomies, the true answer is neither yet lies somewhere between the two, though you can probably figure for yourself which side it falls more towards just by thinking about what Metronome gameplay is. But personally I wanted to see it for myself because it sounded neat.
So based on the instructions in the video, I played around for a while locally to get a feel for how the calls work, and you can see the fruits of my efforts with a proof of concept replay on main here kind of predicting stuff like this: https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9metronomebattle-2271400207
(Fun fact: There are 581 Metronome eligible moves as of the current end of Gen 9.)
Also I just want to show Azumarill getting the clutch win in this demonstration, even though I didn't press tera to change the outcome at all.
Putting together my rambling thoughts overall:
It's a fun party trick when it works. I don't think it really affects much for this format in practice but in theory maybe it does something.
Firstly it takes 2 turns to get enough info to work with, which is sometimes enough for the match to be decided anyway. I specifically set up the optimal conditions of having no speed ties and every mon actually getting an action for this to work out too.
The added effects of speed ties on random calls are very undocumented, which could also be said for many other interactions in the doubles format as I discovered on the fly, but speed ties especially seem to add a ton of frame advancements everywhere, which I believe includes when Intrepid Sword procs, which causes many edge cases that I just didn't want to bother with accounting for. Also mons can change speeds mid match and you have to account for that too.
In this test battle I was lucky to have a very simple T1/T2 to calc calls off of simple attacks and buffs/debuffs. Immediately after on T3 spread moves kind of messed me up, and I didn't really know what RNs are tied to proc chances or other things that could affect future outcome orders (though target choice seems pretty clear).
Maybe if you put in a lot of time in you could figure more patterns out, but even I don't think it's worth it, because there's just not that much to do other than show off and mess with people on ladder, if you have the time and correctly get the calls from the first 2 turns right. Ultimately the outcome is still mostly decided from the start of the battle.
Technically you do have one possible influence on the battle of pressing tera or Normalium Z or mega evolution at one point, but to actually take advantage of it you need to give up on pressing that button until you know it can matter, which by turn 2 may be too late. So there's already an explicit tradeoff you make by going this route to affect the battle later, by giving up a turn 1/2 tera to not affect the battle earlier, and running Normalium Z/a mega stone arguably doesn't make up for the item slot on its own either.
You also need to be able to predict future calls accurately too and the amount of future future calls that will be affected which I also would not want to bother with. Ultimately I just feel like the potential return on the outcome of a single game is too low for the effort put in, compared to just playing more games in the same time. But if there is ever a point that someone does manage to actually take advantage of this information to influence the outcome of an arbitrary metronome battle in practice, then I would respect the effort at least.
Even if you have a bot simulate the battle from that seed, you also can't account for the enemy's exact set or when they will press whatever button they have unless they already did it, and if we ever reach the point of Metronome 20XX where everyone is perfectly predicting each other then neither player will have pressed their button anyway. This was actually kind of similar to a thought experiment I had in Gen 8 with dynamax once.
So as of now I would say the "counterplay" is basically just having any speed ties involved, or Imposter, or something like Quick Claw or King's Rock that adds a unrevealed random call until it procs to throw people off, or just not bothering at all.
tl;dr I want to sleep. But I also wanted to figure out what this all means in practice. In conclusion I think this is neat and funny but probably won't practically affect anything, feel free to prove me wrong though with another example or anything I'm missing. Hopefully now you have a more informed idea of what this all means for Metronome Battles, because I don't know where to start with anything else. Maybe Showdown will do something about it and render this all irrelevant anyway before it even matters again. Who knows? These are interesting times. Even just Metronome (the move) getting a spotlight for something is nice and noteworthy enough for me.
Also the smogon dex description seems to be up, looking good.
EDIT: Expanded on the possible point that you could have to give up the impact of an earlier turn 1/2 tera just to potentially get something out of a tera later if you want to have an informed impact on the battle's outcome with this exploit, which is pretty timely to bring up regarding the recent question.
(Also before that, I found out Metronome is in a team tour which was also interesting and kind of led to finding this but wasn't really related directly.)
Notably there are some varied takes on how it would affect the Metronome Battle meta, from having no effect to breaking everything. Like most dichotomies, the true answer is neither yet lies somewhere between the two, though you can probably figure for yourself which side it falls more towards just by thinking about what Metronome gameplay is. But personally I wanted to see it for myself because it sounded neat.
So based on the instructions in the video, I played around for a while locally to get a feel for how the calls work, and you can see the fruits of my efforts with a proof of concept replay on main here kind of predicting stuff like this: https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9metronomebattle-2271400207
(Fun fact: There are 581 Metronome eligible moves as of the current end of Gen 9.)
Also I just want to show Azumarill getting the clutch win in this demonstration, even though I didn't press tera to change the outcome at all.
Putting together my rambling thoughts overall:
It's a fun party trick when it works. I don't think it really affects much for this format in practice but in theory maybe it does something.
Firstly it takes 2 turns to get enough info to work with, which is sometimes enough for the match to be decided anyway. I specifically set up the optimal conditions of having no speed ties and every mon actually getting an action for this to work out too.
The added effects of speed ties on random calls are very undocumented, which could also be said for many other interactions in the doubles format as I discovered on the fly, but speed ties especially seem to add a ton of frame advancements everywhere, which I believe includes when Intrepid Sword procs, which causes many edge cases that I just didn't want to bother with accounting for. Also mons can change speeds mid match and you have to account for that too.
In this test battle I was lucky to have a very simple T1/T2 to calc calls off of simple attacks and buffs/debuffs. Immediately after on T3 spread moves kind of messed me up, and I didn't really know what RNs are tied to proc chances or other things that could affect future outcome orders (though target choice seems pretty clear).
Maybe if you put in a lot of time in you could figure more patterns out, but even I don't think it's worth it, because there's just not that much to do other than show off and mess with people on ladder, if you have the time and correctly get the calls from the first 2 turns right. Ultimately the outcome is still mostly decided from the start of the battle.
Technically you do have one possible influence on the battle of pressing tera or Normalium Z or mega evolution at one point, but to actually take advantage of it you need to give up on pressing that button until you know it can matter, which by turn 2 may be too late. So there's already an explicit tradeoff you make by going this route to affect the battle later, by giving up a turn 1/2 tera to not affect the battle earlier, and running Normalium Z/a mega stone arguably doesn't make up for the item slot on its own either.
You also need to be able to predict future calls accurately too and the amount of future future calls that will be affected which I also would not want to bother with. Ultimately I just feel like the potential return on the outcome of a single game is too low for the effort put in, compared to just playing more games in the same time. But if there is ever a point that someone does manage to actually take advantage of this information to influence the outcome of an arbitrary metronome battle in practice, then I would respect the effort at least.
Even if you have a bot simulate the battle from that seed, you also can't account for the enemy's exact set or when they will press whatever button they have unless they already did it, and if we ever reach the point of Metronome 20XX where everyone is perfectly predicting each other then neither player will have pressed their button anyway. This was actually kind of similar to a thought experiment I had in Gen 8 with dynamax once.
So as of now I would say the "counterplay" is basically just having any speed ties involved, or Imposter, or something like Quick Claw or King's Rock that adds a unrevealed random call until it procs to throw people off, or just not bothering at all.
tl;dr I want to sleep. But I also wanted to figure out what this all means in practice. In conclusion I think this is neat and funny but probably won't practically affect anything, feel free to prove me wrong though with another example or anything I'm missing. Hopefully now you have a more informed idea of what this all means for Metronome Battles, because I don't know where to start with anything else. Maybe Showdown will do something about it and render this all irrelevant anyway before it even matters again. Who knows? These are interesting times. Even just Metronome (the move) getting a spotlight for something is nice and noteworthy enough for me.
Also the smogon dex description seems to be up, looking good.
EDIT: Expanded on the possible point that you could have to give up the impact of an earlier turn 1/2 tera just to potentially get something out of a tera later if you want to have an informed impact on the battle's outcome with this exploit, which is pretty timely to bring up regarding the recent question.
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