Ok, there goes any free time I was hoping to have today. Oh well.
Where to start? Firstly, Talon was not banned because it was felt Flying needed a nerf. At the time Flying was certainly one of the top types, but I'm not sure there was such a clear-cut certainty that Flying was definitely the best. After all, this was before Generic Flying came along, and moreover it was our first ban so we were still very much remembering how the meta had been last generation when it was Dragons + Weather. Rather, Talonflame was banned because it made games too matchup-based. And things have only become worse since then.
Let's look at possible counters to Talonflame that are available on Bug, Grass and Fighting:
Scarf Terrakion can't switch in, so isn't a counter. Cobalion can't switch in, so isn't a counter. Armaldo can come in on Talon and live two Brave Birds about two thirds of the time, while even two hits of rock blast KOs back, so it's a shaky counter. Cradily can come in on Talon about 95% of the time and KO back, so finally an actual counter. Except, this requires Cradily to be physically defensive, and without SpD Cradily you're going to have a very tough time dealing with threats like Zard Y. So in this case, even if Talon wasn't broken due to its own power against grass, it'd be broken due to overcentralisation vs. grass!
Moreover, let's not forget that Armaldo has no recovery outside of leftovers, and Bug has no wishpassers, meaning that even though it can come in once it's not going to be able to come in all that often. Moreover it's bug's spinner, so it's very easy to wear down. Neither of these are satisfactory answers to Talon.
Ok, so let's look at checks, revenge killers and other ways of beating it such as wearing it down.
Cobalion checks Talon, due to living two Brave Birds from CB Talon and KOing back with Stone Edge. However, this still requires an entire teamslot to be taken up just to check Talon, and if you get predicted and it goes for Flare Blitz then it's a wasted teamslot that doesn't even help you in the 5% of games where you
are against a Talonflame. Also, it's likely to be your Stealth Rock setter, and losing it vs. a Fire team (even if it does beat Talon for you) isn't going to be worthwhile.
All the sashed mons you mentioned are worth exactly 0.
Any residual damage and the sash is gone, not to mention that revenge killing isn't exactly an amazing achievement in itself given... it can just switch out and come back in at a later time. Even with things like Scarf Terrakion: I mean, sure they revenge kill and all, but after only ~20% damage from residual damage or a little priority to weaken it up, suddenly you can't even revenge kill. And the fact that Talon can just switch out, then come back in and get another certain kill, makes it most certainly broken.
And finally Ferro. Yeah, given it's a grass team, going for Flare Blitz probably won't cost you much at the worst of times, and Ferrothorn can be very predictable given everyone knows how Talon dislikes residual damage.
Ok, but those are all the same arguments as from when it was banned, and the metagame's changed a bit since we banned it. Surely some new way of beating it will have popped up since ORAS? Well, actually, the opposite is true. There are suddenly far more Talonflame sets around than there were back then. Want to switch in Ferrothorn? Enjoy the WoW/Taunt/Roost that this Talon's using. Want to send in Armaldo? Yeah, now it's a burned armaldo, vs. a bulk up Talon that's walling it unless it gets 5 rock blast hits three times in a row. Thought cradily could use the free switch to stockpile up? Yeah, now that SD Talon's gonna sweep.
Ok, but surely your points about it helping with Fire's worst matchups were right, right? Well, uh...
When you want to counter Talon, going for Phys Def Hippowdon's probably one of your best options. So that thing about Talon helping vs. Ground... yeah no, sorry. Equally, Garchomp is a pretty good option for beating it. And vs. Dragon? Yeah, honestly they don't care if you can revenge kill, the entirety of playing against dragons is their ability to revenge kill and be revenge killed. It's not uncommon for a dragon vs. dragon game, especially one where M-Altaria plays little part in it, to last less than 12 turns. Talon's going to revenge kill one or two things maybe, but Dragon still has the upper hand. And remember that thing about Garchomp? Well, I forgot to mention that Dragon teams can be pretty good at getting up SR as well. Yeah, talon will help, but not as much as it will against Grass, Bug and Fighting, which aren't the types you need help against!
tl;dr DO NOT UNBAN TALONFLAME.
Specs Keldeo is quickly getting taken over by SubCM as you've noted, and that set is easily countered by things such as Thundurus and M-Altaria, which also happen to beat Specs Keldeo if it doesn't go for icy wind (in which case other things wall it instead, such as gyarados). Dragon has the latis, Ground has Gastrodon or even Seismitoad to wall it, Normal has AV Meloetta, Ghost has a whole load of mons, Electric has no end of mons to cause it annoyance, and while other types have to predict to beat it that's not to say they auto-lose by any means. For example, with correct predictions Dark will wall it between Umbreon and Sableye, after only a little prior damage Scarf Jirachi can counter on steel, Bug can threaten the opposing team with Mega Pinsir if it comes in on a kill, and Sticky Web will reduce the threat significantly.
I'm not saying Keldeo isn't a significant threat, and it's perfectly possible it deserves a suspect. However your analysis of what types can beat it, as well as the idea you're forced to bank on it missing a hydro pump rather than being able to change your team to better handle it, are both wrong.
I mainly use Flying, where I can beat it reasonably easily, and Normal, where I counter it with AV melo, so I can't honestly say whether Keldeo is or isn't truely broken. From what I can see it isn't broken, but I'll await more in-depth analysis from people who do use it before I'm certain. However, I'm really not sure it needs to be looked at. Tagging
scpinion for his thoughts.
