With major injuries to Haliburton and Tatum, the East opens to a new conference champion and potential for teams under contender status to rise. There’s been some roster overhaul on this side and finally, the east’s basement ultimately will once again be decided by multiple what ifs.
New York Knicks
Cleveland Cavaliers
The top two of the East to me clearly separate themselves from the rest.
I’m extremely bullish on New York which is rare for me. I’ve always been a fan of smart coaching hires with a roster mostly the same as the previous year. It can demonstrate the impact of a coaching change, and no team needed it more than New York.
There was a ton of offensive creativity Thibodeau left untouched before he was fired. He is primarily known as a defensive coach and not an offensive mastermind. Brunson was far too taxed throughout last season, and there weren’t enough sets with movement, KAT popping out for three, or creating more pace in transition.
Mike Brown is the perfect coach to install a new culture of offensive creativity. From his time at Golden State and Sacramento, one look at New York’s roster and he’s got to be excited. The best shooting big in history, the best clutch player, the best 3 and D wings who can also score with the best, and a bench that is now upgraded with the return of Robinson. Hart, McBride and Clark round out well. If Brogdon hadn’t retired, it would have been one of the most complete benches.
A healthy Robinson goes a long way in compensating for KAT’s defensive deficiencies. He didn’t get to play as many games last season, so New York has an even higher gear on the defensive end we’ve yet to fully see.
Cleveland deserves to be favored once again as #1 in the East. Atkinson coached a history-making offense, and Mobley still may have another gear in him. Garland’s injury history would be my only concern to why they wouldn’t get the top seed and even without him, they’re still an upper-echelon eastern conference playoff team with a chip on their shoulder. The foundation has been set.
Lonzo is a great pick-up to keep the bench afloat after Jerome departed. Hunter is a much better fit on this team than he was in Atlanta. Larry Nance Jr. returns. Low-key B+ offseason for the previous top seed. There really isn’t that much more to say except I don’t expect to see any significant drop.
Milwaukee Bucks
Detroit Pistons
Atlanta Hawks
Orlando Magic
The second east tier are mostly improving teams.
Milwaukee experimented with point Giannis post all-star break last season, and it was largely a success. Add in a full training camp, get younger at center, dump your point-of-attack defense liability, and this team should be fine. There is a scenario where this all blows up after going .500 for a few months due to all the pressure Giannis has for the organization to win. I just find it hard for Giannis not to maintain dominance being spaced around shooters and fully embracing playmaking. He’s also exploring other spots on the floor outside the paint to create more pressure points to opposing defenses.
I do not think Lillard’s departure makes this team worse. In fact, it’s the contrary. Lillard didn’t add as much value that now can’t be re-imagined with a point Giannis. You lose Lillard as a target and Giannis gets more touches. Lopez was an aging center, but he had to go. Turner is younger and should be an improvement in that spot.
Detroit I think can sneakily improve upon last year. I like Robinson signing replacing Hardaway Jr. and Levert to keep the bench afloat providing Cunningham more rest. Cunningham seems awfully determined to continue improving as leader, and he’s still young. Ivey can take this team to another level if he gets healthy and works himself in the rotation again.
Thompson, Duren, and Holand are a great youthful support core still growing and learning. Solid coaching, solid roster, and a great star. Should be in the running for a playoff spot.
Atlanta and Orlando, the teams who made the most changes and improvements in the offseason in the East, should both be better from last year. The question is to what degree?
I have Atlanta higher because I find their moves to have more impact. Young never had a pick-and-pop big, so now he’ll be able to bust switches and open lanes more than ever before. Alexander-Walker brings more defense to a roster already with length and the best perimeter defender in the league in Daniels. Kennard brings shooting and bench punch, and maybe Johnson will finally play more than half a season as he was about to have a breakout year before getting injured.
They have all the reasons to be a top seed. It’s very dependent on the health of Porzingis, but even with him gone, Okongwu has improved enough to warrant a starting spot.
If Porzingis can’t stay on the floor, Atlanta has a chance to be closer to play-in range, but if Young and Porzingis can get acclimated, you may see the next coming of Lebron/Ilgauskas.
Orlando traded for Desmond Bane to replace Caldwell-Pope and will have Jalen Suggs returning sometime soon. Banchero was also injured half the season last time. Presuming everyone is mostly healthy, Orlando should jump in seeding as much as Atlanta.
With Suggs, Bane, Banchero, and Wagner, they will have the strong core of guys who collectively will make a strong defense and if Suggs can knock down the three from a decent clip, this offense be good enough to catapult this team to a top seed. After already being one of the worst scoring teams with the best defense, a league average offense is more than enough to beat most opponents. Carter Jr. can potentially find his three-point shot too, and Banchero/Wagner get another year together. I’m still unsure of the long-term fit in Wagner/Banchero, but it’s still bringing this organization wins.
So, if they maintain a top three defense, they will be in the playoffs. I don’t expect Bane and Suggs to turn bring the team’s offense to top 10, but if they can manage to bring it out of the bottom 5, heck, league average, a top seed isn’t out of the question.
Miami Heat
Philadelphia Sixers
Toronto Raptors
Indiana Pacers
Boston Celtics
The next tier down are teams on the decline or have too many what ifs to feel confident about whether they have what it takes to escape the play-in.
I’m higher on Miami this year than in year’s past. For the first half of the season, Butler was a drain on the team. One should expect them to play a much better regular season flushing him out completely.
Powell had a spectacular shooting season with Los Angeles last year, and his game was built for Miami Heat culture. He should do more than replace Robinson; he’ll add off-the-dribble punch too. Jovic is a sleeper Most Improved Player pick. Ware has a large upside as well. Spoelstra is still one of best coaches in making the best out of what he has. The only true concern for Miami is Herro. He’s in his contract year. If it ends up anywhere close to the Butler situation, this team could be derailed again like they were last year. I also feel like they need a true point guard especially with Herro’s absence for the first few weeks. There’s an increasing number of teams full court pressuring and forcing turnovers to increase pace. Mitchell is great at defense but has a long way to go becoming a floor general.
Their new additions and full training camp will allow Spoelstra to create an interesting offense. Not an elite offense, but an interesting one. Miami’s offense has always been what kept their ceiling low. Powell brings movement and shooting, and hopefully, Ware and Jovic bring some kind of upside in passing/shooting to shore up the offense. Jaquez Jr. had a bit of a regression last season as well. Overall, there’s more optimism here than I would have expected after Butler’s departure.
George and Embiid will always have what ifs in their status at this point in their careers. When they are on the floor, Philadelphia is easily a tier above this. After last year, I’ll never assume these two will play more than 40-50 consecutive games ever again.
But their young guys are good enough to get them here with limited availability of their older stars. Maxie is still a great all-star player. Edgecomb looked promising in preseason, McCain should at least play by November. Philadelphia signed Grimes late in the offseason to add more shooting depth. Truly, I am stuck between tiers with this one but only have them here because of the what ifs in George/Embiid’s injury status long-term.
All this team truly needs is at least 30-40 games for all healthy players to get adjusted to each other. That would make them a top seed easily. The chance of that happening however…
Toronto is here because it’s the team I have the least minute data on and the most what ifs. Ingram, the hometown hero of mine, is their star addition. This should make them better than the last couple of years. Quickley has not been able to become the floor initiator Toronto envisioned since trading for him. I can give him the benefit of the doubt last year because he was injured, but there is enough minute data and my own eye test to see he may not have what it takes. He’s a great pull-up shooter but doesn’t create much rim pressure. The defense isn’t worried much else about Quickley besides his jump shooting which has come and gone.
The next if is about Barnes. Without a lead initiator point guard, Barnes struggles to find his way offensively. That’s essentially been his entire career in Toronto. He’s still a terrible floor spacer all the way to this most recent preseason, so in the halfcourt, he simply clogs up the lane along with Poeltl.
Add Ingram who has the potential to create more clunkiness. Ingram is tall enough to see over the defense and get his own shot. The only drawback is, he prefers the mid-range which is the exact opposite of generating rim pressure. The only player who consistently generates rim pressure is RJ Barrett who also struggles to hit jump shots at times.
The what ifs center around the fit of these four guys. A point guard who hasn’t shown to be a good floor manager yet, forwards with questionable jump shooting after 2-3 years, and Ingram who can pretty much do everything but attack the rim. The offense without pace is going to be abysmal.
What is the way for this team to climb out of the play-in? Defense. It hasn’t worked on that end with this core. Perhaps it is personnel. Perhaps it is coaching. Perhaps it is injuries. Whatever the case may be, it’s the only way to supercharge the offense without jump shooting. If Toronto can find a team identity in forcing turnovers, that will make them that much better
Rajakovic has his work cut out for him in his third year: Find an offensive scheme for sub-par jump shooters surrounding Ingram and find a defensive scheme that takes advantage of the roster’s length. We will see how it plays out.
Indiana will not be an east basement dweller. I refuse to believe it even with Turner/Haliburton gone. This squad still has the taste of a game 7 finals in their memory, and Siakam is a veteran all-star capable of leading an offense in the regular season. Carlisle is an underrated x’s and o’s coach.
They still have great defensive concepts and are great athletes. I do worry about the spacing that will be missed with Turner gone, and the playmaking from Haliburton. The offense will undoubtedly drop, but what are they able to manage with only one all-star in Sakiam?
I estimate league average in offense and defense, which is around or just below .500 play-in East range.
Boston is here because they unloaded their championship team for tax purposes. Gone are Holiday, Horford, Porzingis, and Tatum through injury. What is left in the debris is Brown/White/Simons taking on the burden of offense while their new frontcourt will attempt to play around them.
I don’t see this making them too much better than a .500. team at best. White and Brown are fantastic all-star caliber guys who can carry an offense; I only worry about the spacing and an injury to one of them. One injury to any of their main offensive key guys and it will crater.
They lost their shooting, rebounding, and #1 playmaker. I’d be a bit more confident in Boston’s ability to be a majorly competitive team if they had one good frontcourt player that made their opponents want to think twice about leaving them open
Simons/White/Brown are going to shoot over the top of defenses and either wear themselves out or shoot themselves to the playoffs.