Sports NBA Thread 2025-2026

adjectivenoun said:
The Pistons will have exactly the same season they had last year. That's my prediction.
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Every single fucking time.
 
I’ve kinda fallen out of NBA recently. But yay Curry brothers finally together. Too bad it wasn’t during Steph’s prime.
 
The Thunder have a positive net rating overall with SGA off the floor.

No more "is OKC really a favorite to repeat?" Questions. The potential first dynasty since the Warriors is here.

As for the Spurs: this stretch without Wemby couldn't have gone any better. The young guns get experience with Fox against top teams. They learn to play without Wemby by driving and shooting with pace. Now Wemby can see where he fits and any cup experience for this young group at this point win or lose is icing on the cake.
 
DerrickRose said:
The Thunder have a positive net rating overall with SGA off the floor.

No more "is OKC really a favorite to repeat?" Questions. The potential first dynasty since the Warriors is here.
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Get a load of this, gang. It has come to my attention are actually some people on the Internet, especially on NBA TikTok of all places that think this Thunder team could actually win a hypothetical playoff series against the Warriors in their prime. Let me say that again. NBA TikTok, a place that already contains some of the objectively worst takes I have ever heard, actually thinks the Thunder stands a chance against the Warriors’ throne.

To the uneducated eye, I can see why someone might think this. The 2017 Warriors and the 2025 Thunder are the two teams and their respective seasons being compared here, right, and while I can’t exactly tell if they were talking about out 2024-25 or 2025-26 (the NBA Finals recognizes the second number as the calendar year for the season, so that’s what I tend to do too), my opinion on this is pretty much the same regardless. This Thunder team has been I credit efficient to the point where they even caught me by surprise, posting some of the best net efficiency ratings we’ve seen since the Warriors dynasty and noticeably better defensive performances and consistency than basically the entire league. The problems I have are twofold. For starters, at least so far, I would argue the Warriors in their prime had better coaching and a deeper list of role players than Oklahoma City currently does. Maybe that changes later down the line, but with what we have to work with currently, the Thunder, while dominant, haven’t exactly changed the narrative of the sport and redefined the league as much as the Warriors were able to do. I’m also going to suggest a take of my own and say that the Warriors would actually match up pretty well against this Thunder team head-to-head, since part of what made the Warriors so dangerous for so long was their ability to control the pace of the court and extend their offense simultaneously, forcing teams to play Golden State’s game rather than their own like it’s some kind of Smogon suspect test. As good as Oklahoma City has looked, it’s hard to say they’ve faced that kind of adversity at this early point in their championship window, at least not yet.
 
phoopes said:
My response to this is that the Thunder were 18-1 through 19 games with the highest point differential in NBA history (through 19 games) at a 16.5ppg victory margin. This was without Jalen Williams, who was third team All-NBA last year and a key piece of the championship team. The Thunder are now 20-1, the last two games being close ones, but as they reintegrate Williams into the lineup they’re going to be a better team than the one that set the record for ppg differential through 19 games. That’s scary. I wouldn’t put money on them to hit 73 wins quite yet, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they matched or exceeded last year’s total of 68.

Their biggest competition is in the West for sure. It’s not a cakewalk by any means and you’re right, the playoffs are a different animal. But this team now has playoff experience in addition to their regular season success. They know what it takes to grind out wins and achieve the ultimate goal. I think once they get over the hump in the WCF it should be a given that they’re beating anyone coming out of a relatively weak East.

The Thunder have the reigning MVP and while he’s not the best player in the league (still think it’s Jokic), Shai is a superstar that can and will lead the way. I said don’t put your money on them breaking the win record, but I would take them over the field when it comes to a championship. Like I said preseason, we have a dynasty in the making here and I don’t think that’s an overreaction.
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So the dynasty in the making talk may have been a wee bit premature when they’re 0-3 against the Spurs this year lol. I still think they’re favorites to win the championship but Wemby is also going to be a force for years so who knows whether the Thunder will be able to get over that massive hump (a 7’5” hump to be specific)
 
Firstly, have the OKC redefined the NBA like the Warriors? The question is a bit loaded considering we're one season after their first championship. Arguably, they have created some trends already around the league. Depth is more emphasized in rosters with athletic wings and guards, and full-court pressure on ball-handlers. Whether this becomes a long-term thing remains to be seen, but OKC in my eyes has been a dynasty in the making since the SGA trade. I feel like they've just been under the radar until now. Their dominance does not surprise me at all as Sam Presti carried the Spurs way of organizing around disciplined, smart scouting and team basketball. Draft after draft, grabbing Chris Paul for a year, stocking assets and developing picks at the same time. Spurs did the same thing around Wemby, so the trend is less due to OKC but rather they followed the "dynasty" pathway for years already.

Spurs have done well these past few weeks to beat them 3-0. Our wing size and speed so far is a bit of a mismatch. It doesn't mean OKC still isn't a likely dynasty: they have the best assets in the league, best young talent, and best superstar. Wemby could definitely prevent that and hey, that's totally probable. We also don't know the asset and future market of the league which is just as much of a factor deciding team strength and versatility.

However, losing 0-3 to the Spurs isn't the worst outcome for a contender during this run:

Since November 16th, Spurs are:

- 15-3 (best record)
- 120.3 Offensive efficiency (4th)
- 112.3 Defensive rating (10th), 102.6 Since Wemby's return (2nd)
- 8.0 Net rating (3rd)
- 37.2 3-point % (7th)
- 0.281 Free-throw rate (7th)
- 51% Rebound Rate (8th)
- 59.8 True Shooting % (6th)
 
The second half of that Spurs vs Timberwolves game must've been pretty nerve-wracking to watch live.

I'm glad that Spurs held onto the win but dang that was too close for comfort ; Edwards getting 55 pts for the T-Wolves is unreal. Good win for Spurs.
 
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Edwards is unstoppable. He's going to be even more unstoppable someday if you can even imagine it. He reminds me of young MJ/Kobe/LeBron. He's combining amazing skill with athleticism at an amazing rate, and it's only a matter of time we have our next Kobe/Duncan...
 
The Suns are a rough draw. Physical, shot-makers, and they've given San Antonio trouble already. Wemby can't protect everything in pick-and-roll situations and those decisions under playoff pressure are a whole different ask for a young guy.

Clippers are a different kind of problem. Regular season wins don't mean much when peak Kawhi shows up in a series. He's methodical in a way that specifically punishes inexperience. The Spurs want to play fast — Kawhi and Lue slow that down in a heartbeat.

Either way this is exactly the test Wemby needs. Suns stress his physicality and conditioning. Clippers stress his composure and IQ. Both series tell us something real about where this team actually is.
 
The Thunder got the perfect possible draw. Deservingly of course since they are the #1 seed but still. First round they'll be facing a weak play-in team, second round they get either a heavily injured Rockets or heavily injured Lakers. They'll drop 1 game at worst.

Meanwhile Spurs and Nuggets (or if Wolves somehow make it out) have a daunting gauntlet to get there. That side of the bracket looks absolutely brutal.

The East however looks extremely open. I genuinely think any of the top 9 teams (except the Raptors. Not the Raptors) can make it to the Finals this year if things work out. Celtics are the favorites as the Pistons have big question marks in terms of how their offense will adapt to the playoffs. They do have experience from last year at least.
 
DerrickRose said:
These teams are absolutely not making the Finals:

Raptors, Hawks, Magic, Hornets. I wouldn't say it's THAT wide open.
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The Hornets have the 4th best rating in the East and 8th in the league. And thats despite an awful start to the season.

The Magic have been really bad but they do have the talent. Last year the Knicks and Pacers clicked during the playoffs after a relatively underwhelming regular season. I am aware the Magic's issues go beyond that but I wouldnt completely write them off.
 
While Charlotte's +4.9 Net Rating is impressive on paper, it’s a false positive for playoff success. Their -11.1 Clutch Net Rating and 14.8% TOV% suggest they lack the late-game discipline required to win four rounds. Historically, Finals teams need to be Top 10 in both efficiency and execution. The Magic and Hornets might have 'talent,' but their 4-factor profiles (low eFG% and high turnovers) are statistically inconsistent with a Finals ceiling. You're betting on a black swan event over hedging on what the Pacers did; I'm betting on two decades of historical data.
 
Statistically, the East has only three real contenders. If you look at the historical Top 10/Top 10 rule for offense and defense, only the Celtics, Knicks, and Pistons actually fit the profile of a champion.

Play-In Preview: Why Miami (43-39) Upsets Charlotte (44-38)

Despite the Hornets finishing with a better record, I'm a bit afraid for them because it's the Heat. Here is the breakdown:

Late-Game Discipline: Miami ranks 5th in clutch ball security, while Charlotte is dead last (30th) as mentioned before. In a tight 4th quarter, the Hornets are prone to pick-six turnovers.

Pace Control: Miami leads the league in Pace (103.4). Expect Spoelstra to run Charlotte’s young rotation into the ground, forcing high-variance shots.

Coaching Gap: Erik Spoelstra is a Play-In veteran; this is Charles Lee’s first time in the hot seat.

The X-Factor
Charlotte’s only path to winning is Shot Quality Variance. If LaMelo Ball and Kon Knueppel get hot from deep (Charlotte is #3 in True Shooting), they can blow the game open before Miami’s defensive structure settles.

Prediction: Miami’s tactical discipline and experience negate Charlotte’s explosive offense. Heat win a close one.
 
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