This Melmetal suspect is among the most contested tiering discussions this generation. We could be headed towards a generation closing suspect that does not result in a ban for the first time since Pokemon Online was the status quo, and I am personally content leaving the tier this way if so. It's a lot to think about from the perspective of the person behind the scenes that ran the show for the vast majority of the time this generation though. We have received pretty astonishing levels of support from survey-to-survey and I quite like this metagame, but there are still plenty of metagame dissenters and people who think a change or two can improve things, so it's bittersweet knowing that this could be all she wrote at the same time.
Of course, in the neighborhood of tense suspects within the confines of this generation alone would be the original Melmetal retest, which now feels like generations ago, and the infamous Kyurem suspect. Both of these came with a sense of openness as the tier would be able to react and potentially reintroduce, much like we did with Melmetal itself, depending on the verdict and how it aged. This is different -- we are playing for keeps (for the forseeable future) with generation nine looming, so I feel it important I share my thoughts.
Personally I have been sitting on the fence with Melmetal to the point that I did not chime in with my initial analysis until I cemented a stance, which I have now done, and I still understand both sides. Melmetal is interesting because in terms of sheer counterplay, we could argue for it possessing a sufficient quantity of checks and counters, but I think there is more to the story than just that one picture. I would contest that sentiment by saying that each variant of Melmetal has ample counterplay indiivdually, but the overlap between sets and the flexibility of covering it among archetypes is truly where it goes from clear-cut to hazy and distanced.
This leaves us in uncharted territory as we are not in a situation where people dedicate teamslots or cores to Melmetal coverage like prior suspects. For Spectrier, it was either you used a durable Ghost resist or you found yourself in trouble quickly, so it restricted teambuilding by forcing that. For Urshifu-S, you either used a bulky Fairy or Buzzwole, so it similarly limited how you could teambuild. Same can be said with Dracovish and Water immunities (or very fat resists) and a number of other suspects. Melmetal is not like this at all. You can unintentionally waltz into checking Melmetal through standard teambuilding conventions by covering Double Iron Bash + EQ/Superpower with standard options like Rotom-Wash, Slowbro, Corviknight, Skarmory, Volcarona, Buzzwole, Zapdos, Urshifu-Rapid, Scizor, Pelipper, etc. But this does not leave you as close to universally safe and sometimes it can even lure you into a false sense of security.
And that segues us into the main selling point for a Melmetal ban: it can accomplish an awful lot in terms of both quantity of possibilities and quality of impact on game states. This is due to Melmetal being a massive presence with a unique mono-Steel typing and standout HP/attack/defense that enable so many different things. The main sets we see are ProtectToxic2A, Protect3A, AV, SubAA, Sub3A, and Pads3A/4A. Between them, you get the mandatory Double Iron Bash coupled with one of Earthquake or Superpower on attacking sets or Body Press on the Acid Armor sets. Coverage can be Thunder Punch or Ice Punch while status like Toxic or Thunder Wave can see usage, too. Considering all of this, it is actually quite hard to contain Melmetal across a whole game rather than just minimizing it. Minimizing it can be enough given how proactive and punishing this landscape can be, however. We are not living in the do-nothing Clefable age of earlier this generation and we are seeing more hard offenses, pressure maintenance, and brute force based progress than ever before, which does not play in the favor of Melmetal.
I am not going to go set-by-set and discuss what checks or counters each individual variant or why they are unique and what teams they fit -- everyone voting knows that, but I do want to say that I think that this versatility highlights the fact that Melmetal is more than just a tank that hits hard and soaks up hits (even on the special end) pretty well -- it fits onto many different teams and serves numerous roles all at a top tier level. My gripe with this and disagreement with the pro-ban side is that it does not do any of this at a metagame breaking level. There is no one Melmetal set that does not have answers and while overlap is not perfect as I allude to, the pool is still numerous enough to where this does not necessarily matter or singlehandedly dictate team compositions. The power level of Melmetal is awesome when unresisted or clicking the right move, but in a proactive metagame state with Steel as your STAB, that is more often a hope than a reality.
Melmetal is awesome at trading with targets and forcing incremental progress on early-game counterplay, but standalone I do not find it overpowering and I do not find Melmetal to be broken given all of this. I find the metagame to easily have enough counterplay in terms of initial switchins and while games persisting favors Melmetal users if they play strategically, the state of the metagame naturally restricts it unless people go overly passive, and overly passive teams have issues compounding far beyond just Melmetal to the point that I do not view this standalone as probable cause to ban Melmetal. I will be voting do not ban.