Sigh. Here we go again.
So it has to come in when there isn't a Sub up AND the BP player is not using Taunt, an attacking move or Baton Pass. If that's your FullPass counterplay, you lose to FullPass. It's not a soft check, because it just doesn't work.
Again, this is why it's a soft check. Obviously you'd need to have offensive pressure along with ditto to force the other player into umbreon/mew, and be threatening enough that they want to use iron defense/wish/curse instead of BP or taunt. It's like soft checking Zacian-C with Helmet Corviknight: It's not enough on its own but combined with other mons it can check the mon in question.
You're still calcing with garbage Adamant Drill, and clicking EQ on Scoli rather than a Rock move, so those calcs are pretty invalid. Also, both Dubwool and Vaporeon can use Cotton Guard/Acid Armour in Drill's face. Yeah, you are going to succeed after only passing Speed because speed is the most important stat. Once speed has been passed, whatever other boosts are needed are much easier to acquire.
Adamant Drill is not garbage; it's a perfectly viable set. Besides, I don't want to rely on a potential speed tie against opposing Excadrill. I'd rather just switch out into an actual Excadrill check (which we have to be running anyways due to Ditto's existence)
Against Scoli we do the following (if it isn't obvious enough): Max rockfall, max rockfall (scoli is at 45% now), and then max Quake, followed by eq spam. This line of play gives Scoli no chance to set up an iron defense, and it's forced to pass while excadrill clicks Earthquake. Is this clear enough for you?
viz:
252+ Atk Life Orb Excadrill Max Quake vs. +2 252 HP / 0 Def Scolipede: 173-204 (53.3 - 62.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252+ Atk Life Orb Excadrill Earthquake vs. +2 252 HP / 0 Def Scolipede: 133-157 (41 - 48.4%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
For what it's worth, dubwool can't switch in (or receive a pass) and gets 2HKO'd through Cotton Guard, assuming it's the set you listed above:
252+ Atk Life Orb Excadrill Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Dubwool: 242-285 (69.5 - 81.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
252+ Atk Life Orb Excadrill Earthquake vs. +3 252 HP / 0 Def Dubwool: 97-114 (27.8 - 32.7%) -- 80.8% chance to 4HKO after Leftovers recovery
Neither can Vaporeon, it's it's 252 Special Def calm:
252+ Atk Life Orb Excadrill Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Vaporeon: 364-429 (78.4 - 92.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
I don't know, perhaps use some common sense to determine what is garbage that was ranked on a small niche and is now invalid due to the presence of a couple of pink blobs, and what is actually played in Ubers. And use some metagame experience to understand what BP actually plays. If you're just going to pick random mons from the C Rank of the outdated VR and rely on me to show you what a BP team actually looks like, the only conclusion that can be drawn is you don't know what you're talking about.
Also, pre-DLC BP was fine, post-DLC it was not, so I think there is a hole in your logic somewhere (and it's shaped like a big purple bug).
You seem to misunderstand why I'm using the current VR and your BP team.
I am relying on public resources because these are what the community currently agrees on. If I use my own opinions (viz: Volcarona is viable, for example), then we may get into a lengthy discussion about Volcarona's viability instead of the actual suspect at hand. If I say "BP uses X" someone else could say "BP uses Y set instead" and I don't want to get lost in such a discussion. This is IMO the cleanest way to stay at the topic at hand; use public resources that we can all agree on.
I am using your BP team because it is the only one publicly available. I have not faced any BP teams while laddering for suspect and there are none in the UPL replays.
For what it's worth, everyone's "common sense" is different. For example, you say Charizard is bad, but I know at least one person used it for reqs (on an admittedly garbage Ubers ladder). See the following post:
Both of my losses were to Reshiram missing Blue Flare, blind pos lol.
Shoutouts
Ropalme1914 for the team that I slightly modified. G-Zard eats Baton Pass for breakfast, lunch and dinner.
Which does more damage to BP teams, Sneak or Thief? Do they share the same immunities and thus switch-ins? Thank you.
You seem to be under the impression that I don't understand what you are saying, so rather than repeat myself:
1. Breaking the Chain=/=Winning
2. Team Preview is a thing.
3. Mental Herb is a thing.
Oh, and Taunt on Sableye is over Prankster Encore and Disable. Both of which are really powerful.
You seem to be under the impression that a BP user is happy to have their chain broken once a game. This is obviously false, as a broken chain can very easily mean game over. Is is possible to restart a broken chain? Sure. It is likely against a remotely offensive team with many weakened mons? Of course not.
Team preview being a thing makes life 100% easier for the player playing against fullpass. I fail to see why this is relevant.
Mental herb is a thing, but the BP user has to choose between lefties and Mental herb. It's not like the BP user will be spamming mental herb on every mon.
I'll repeat what I said: you run Taunt on Sableye if you need it. If your team already beats fullpass, feel free to run Encore or Disable.
I'll repeat myself:
I'll just DD in front of the Scoli-whoops they have a Sub up now and can use Iron Defence or BP to an attacker to KO Gyara safely. That's an L I guess.
If all Hydreigon does is click Dark Pulse, it becomes setup fodder for Magearna and its probable Weakness Policy. And then you Taunt the Magearna that you are sure is not carrying a STAB Fairy move that OHKOs you instantly starting a Soul-Heart snowball? Brave.
You see, the BP player has to lose multiple 50/50s before he can truely throw in the towel. The other player only has to lose one, and the FullPass spirals out of control. That's why it's stacked in the BP player's favour.
Getting a DD on a Scoli's protect is basically game over for the BP player. The safe play, of course, is to attack, but don't pretend that the BP player is incapable of losing turn 1, just like the anti BP player is capable of getting into a bad position. I fail to see how this is evidence of the 50/50 being weighted towards the BP player.
Taunting Magerana is hardly "brave". Losing a mon prematurely hurts a lot less vs fullpass than it does vs traditional strategies. So yes, of course I'm taunting Mage every time. The BP user isn't snowballing anytime soon; they want more speed/iron def/calm mind boosts.
Running Taunt over EQ on Gyara is asking to get walled to hell and back by Ferrothorn, Nec DM, and basically every tanky Steel ever. It also means Gyara has no means of fighting Zekrom, a Pokemon it is meant to obliterate with EQ, and becomes setup fodder for it. Taunt is good when it's on utility mons, not sweepers. Oh, and Sub>Taunt on Hydreigon because it makes setting up Nasty Plots way easier and less risky.
You can Taunt ferrothorn anyways so it's not as big of a problem. I'd argue you actually have an easier time vs Ferrothorn with Taunt over EQ because it can't leech seed you. Its only attack is usually body press or knock off, both of which deal minimal damage.
Do you really want to click EQ on Nec DM? Let's see the calcs:
252 Atk Gyarados Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Prism Armor Necrozma-Dusk-Mane: 129-153 (32.4 - 38.4%) -- 97.1% chance to 3HKO
252 Atk Gyarados Waterfall vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Necrozma-Dusk-Mane: 103-123 (25.8 - 30.9%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
EQ does marginally more than waterfall without a nifty flinch chance; moreover, EQ procs a potential weakness policy. Taunt, on the other hand, can help facilitate a sweep by preventing Necrozma from clicking Trick Room or Morning Sun. I think I'd prefer Taunt for this matchup.
Not having EQ indeed hurts against Zekrom. Having said that, the increased utility against threats like skarm, corviknight, and the like is more than worth it IMO.
Taunt is, to put bluntly, good on every mon that gets it. It is arguably one of the best moves in the game. It's definitely worth at least considering, especially on builds that want to prevent Defog (e.g. hazard stack HO)
You seem to not understand what Shuckle does. And that a 20 BP Stored Power still triggers Red Card. I'll let you go work that out.
At this point, it seems that you're not arguing in good faith.
Of course 20 BP stored power triggers Red Card. This is why, against full pass, you're not going to lead shuckle (Even though you lead shuckle in every other matchup) and instead lead something else (like Zacian-C for example). Then, after they've set up the chain with sufficient boosts to kill you at the cost of 50% health on every team member, you bring in shuckle, phaze them, and clean up. Is that easier to understand?
Hey, so was I! But one of us actually understands the opportunity cost of Haze and why it is not the primary recommended option, especially now Flip Turn is in the format. The only reason Haze is viable at all on Vaporeon is because Baton Pass really, else it can just pivot out into a faster attacker that shuts down the sweeper, like Zacian-C.
Ok, leading Marshadow beats 0% of prepped BP teams. Got it. As for why you can't just interrupt the chain halfway through, see the block of text you quoted.
Except Haze is the primary recommended option. Whoops.
Marshadow does beat the BP team you posted. Not every BP team will be carrying dubwool/indeedee (these mons are pretty bad otherwise), and it's pretty disingenuous to pretend every BP team will be having the exact counterplay to the team you decided to use.
Well isn't that obvious. Fun fact: Zamazenta-C is still on the Ubers VR. It's still garbage that should never used.
I was speaking of course about Galar AG, which is precisely the same format as Ubers except without Dynamax Clause because there aren't any mons it's worth bringing multiple of or any significant sleep inducers or any significant evasion boosters. In many ways, BP is harder to use in Galar AG because of the lack of Dynamax Clause, allowing things like Marshadow and Ditto to do serious damage, as well as letting Dynamaxed Zekrom lose on your team.
This is what's possible in AG:
Clefable @ Leftovers
Ability: Unaware
EVs: 252 HP / 4 Def / 252 SpD
Calm Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Minimize
- Substitute
- Baton Pass
- Soft-Boiled
Ninjask @ Leftovers
Ability: Speed Boost
EVs: 252 HP / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Timid Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Double Team
- Substitute
- Protect
- Baton Pass
I think it's understandable no one really wants to face this.
And as for UPL:
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen8ubers-1145603250
Replay of "Magearna pass" in action.... On both sides. It also has Shuckle, so you can see what that does. Oh and Taunt only works here if you have your own Speed boosts, else Magearna just gets off the BP.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen8ubers-508712
Replay of Magearna in action without BP, showing it can be hard to spot some versions of "Magearna pass" at preview, because it could just be a normal Magearna.
I wonder how many players made gentleman's agreements Week 1, and how many just figured that since everyone was thinking about it, everyone would bring the BP counterplay, so it wasn't worth it.
EDIT: Also, none of the counterplay you mentioned was bought to Week 1. Teams preferred to spam Haze Pex and Haze Quagsire instead.
You missed the point about Shuckle; obviously you're going to play completely differently against full pass than against quick pass.
Let's take a closer look at what was brought week 1, and their fullpass counterplay:
[DCV] Icemaster vs. [DRZ] TrueNora
One player brings Quagsire and other brings Urshifu.
[DCV] Cromagnet vs. [DRZ] Ballfire
I see a Volcarona and an Urshifu, both of which beat fullpass by themselves. They have Quagsire as well, but I don't know if quagsire is even running haze because it doesn't really need to here.
[DUR] Skysolo vs. [MEL] Royal1604
I see Meteor beam Eterneus--which also beats BP, I forgot to mention this--LO excadrill, and Marshadow as BP counterplay.
[DUR] TonyFlygon vs. [MEL] Fc04
One player runs Quagsire and other other runs Urshifu.
[HDH] dice vs. [CBT] crucify
There's LO excadrill, Volcarona, Marshadow, Quagsire, and Gyarados.
[HDH] Shuwri vs. [CBT] Alpha Rabbit
Red Card Shuckle, Urshifu, and Gyarados, and SS cloyster provide plenty of counterplay to Fullpass.
[RQZ] Goat Heart vs. [DLG] Reje
I see a Urshifu, Cinderace, Volcarona, and Quagsire as Fullpass counterplay.
[RQZ] Jaajgko vs. [DLG] 100%GXE
I see Volcarona, Ditto, and Quagsire.
Overall, it seems that there is plenty of Urshifu, Gyra, Marshadow, Quagsire, and Volcarona being spammed; enough so that Full Pass is probably going to lose if brought. This seems like a pretty far cry from "Bring haze or lose". Haze Toxapex never saw play, and I suspect some of the Quagsires weren't running haze; at least one (in the last game) was confirmed to be running curse instead.
Apprently, top Ubers players disagree. Like I said, it's a sweeper bypassing all the risks of setting up itself and freeing up a moveslot or two for more coverage. Or a Choiced mon being able to set up. Or a sweeper getting access to boosting moves that it shouldn't. The issue is the quickpassers here: they are getting more and more reliable, to the point that Magearna Pass Offense is a full consistent strategy rather than just matchup cheese.
What's wrong with quickpass teams being consistent? This doesn't make the tier noncompetitive in any way--in fact, it arguably makes the tier more competitive. Moreover, you claim it's a sweeper bypassing all the risks, which is false. It still has to take a hit--or have the mon passing be able to take a hit--on the switch in.
You may want to try and understand why the suspect is being held. This is Ubers. Here, people do not care if something has 100% usage, they do not care if something is broken, they only care if it is competitive. Mega Ray, for instance, was banned for being so broken that it was uncompetitive, leading to games being decided by coin tosses on the Mega Ray switch-in rather than any player skill. BP is uncompetitive, hence it is being suspected.
If this was line of thinking was legitimate, everything that got suspected should be banned. There's a reason suspects are held. For example, Shadow Tag was suspected last generation, and did not get banned. It is up to the voters to decide if BP is uncompetitive or not.