Hey everyone, as a council member who's been very vocal about the tiering decisions of Ubers in the past, who wrote both the Yveltal and Calyrex-S analysis, and who even helped Aber write the OP of this thread, I just wanted to drop my two cents in here.
First, I'd like to start off by saying that I feel quote mixed on this issue.
While I think I will still vote no ban, I am significantly more sympathetic to the pro-ban argument than I was a year ago. Why?
Well, when Calyrex-S was first released, people didn't fully understand it yet, and thus the meta was shaped by this. At the time, Timid Scarf Calyrex-S was the most popular set, which was great as an anti-HO tool, as people hadn't fully figured out modern HO staples such as offensive Taunt Yveltal and Weavile. At the same time, people tended to run very bulky Yveltal (usually Knock U-Turn), limiting the ability for Specs Calyrex-S to break past it with pure power. The main method of breaking past Yveltal was to Trick it and damage it over time with Stealth Rock or status damage. While this involves a lot of 50/50s, it overall takes a lot of turns and good decision making to pull off. Scarf being the most popular set also tended to be a limiting factor, as Scarf Yveltal could outspeed Calyrex-S given enough speed investment.
As the meta began to develop more and more, slower breakers such as Groudon, Mixed Zekrom, and Offensive Calm Mind Kyogre started to become extremely strong options, and Yveltal began to have secondary uses on teams checking these mons in a pinch with a clutch Foul Play or Knock Off. Marshadow also could be a pain to check, so throwing some HP investment over Special Defense could help ease that MU a bit. Additionally, HO began to employ many options that would limit how effective Scarf Calyex-S was. All of these things pointed to Specs Calyrex-S starting to become more and more effective. Additionally, players began to experiment and successfully use more and more creative Calyrex-S sets. One of the first notable ones was Trick Nasty Plot, which could abuse Yveltal using Roost after a Trick to boost up to massive levels. SubSeed sets also grew in popularity at this time, as did sets like Focus Sash Nasty Plot on HO teams, both of which would win against any Yveltal that didn't have the proper moves or investment to deal with them.
In our current metagame, as a natural occurrence of time passing, I think players have been experimenting more and more with creative team builds, which tends to mean dropping your typical 6th revenge killer mon like Marshadow or Scarf Caly, in favor of builds utilizing more and more bulky breakers and tanks like Zygade, Groudon, Kyogre, Xerneas, etc. This naturally makes Calyrex-S stronger as a breaker than it was before, especially if your team relies on Yveltal (and even more so a quick Yveltal) as it's sole check to Calyrex-S.
Additionally, players have been becoming even more creative with Caly's sets than they ever have before. Choice Specs sets with Nasty Plot began to start dropping Psyshock for Protect; while this means you autolose to Blissey, against the vast majority of teams, you could quite easily get off a Nasty Plot against a choiced Roosting Yveltal without having to make the tough 50/50 in the first place. The Disable set I invented recently can be extremely devastating against unprepared teams, being able to beat Taunt Yveltal which would normally win against SubSeed sets. Furthermore, on HO, it's quite easy to drop Psyshock on Sash NP sets in favor of Disable, which means that Sucker Punch Yveltal can usually be beaten without much trouble. One of the most recent developments are players dropping Timid for Modest on Specs sets, which can be used to give Caly just enough of that extra oomph to break past Fast Yveltal, especially when paired with passive damage dealers like Rocky Helmet Eternatus or Sticky Barb Clef.
With all of that being said, I am not fully sold on the idea of banning Calyrex-S. Firstly, it doesn't strike me as nearly as broken as Zacian-Hero was. That mon literally invalidated the vast majority of balance builds and only needed a few right predictions to just win the game on the spot. This made only a few possible builds viable, all of which relied on NDM in combination with a Regenerator mon like Tangrowth, Ho-Oh, or Toxapex. While Calyrex-S certainly does have an effect on teambuilding, I don't think it's quite as restrictive; it mandates a specially defensive Yveltal or a Fast Yveltal + another check. It can be said that the right Calyrex-S set will always beat the wrong Yveltal set, and I somewhat agree with this, but the degree to which this is true is also somewhat overblown in my opinion.
I'd like to quickly go through Caly's sets in more detail:
Scarf: It's fashionable to say this set is bad nowadays, but I think it certainly still have some uses on some builds; it's still extremely useful against a lot of bulky offense builds to prevent any threat from getting too out of control, and Tricking away a Choice Scarf can be more crippling to a lot of threats than Specs can be (Tricked Etern specs can actually be quite annoying...). That being said, this set is pure utility for revenge killing and cleric roles, and will rarely sweep without making a lot of correct reads against a Tricked Yveltal.
Specs: The truth of the matter is that, even when running fast Yveltal sets, Specs Caly can only 3HKO Yveltal (and even this tends to be a roll to 3HKO). Modest Specs Caly can push this, especially with passive damage, but it's still not totally undealable with Sucker Punch or any secondary check in the back. Bulky Yveltal sets are harder to break as well. Tricking away the Specs on Yve can be really devastating, but it depends on you furthermore getting the right reads, Stealth Rock up for passive damage, or otherwise just damaging it enough to 2HKO it on the switch-in. By the way, should Yve have a move unrevealed, all of this switching around with Trick and Stealth Rock is also dependent on Caly being careful not to get Sucker Punched at the wrong time.
Trick Specs + Nasty Plot: One of the more devastating Caly sets when used properly. I think Psyshock versions can become one of the best stallbreakers in the tier, provided that they can get the right read on Yveltal using Roost. They are still limited by Ho-Oh, Marshadow, Zarude, or even a clutch Sucker Punch. Trick Protect Nasty Plot versions, created by SS master sparksblade, can be quite strong against most balance builds, easing prediction significantly, but they do get walled by Blissey and have the same problems against Ho-Oh, Marshadow, Zarude, etc. Dropping Aromatherapy also loses you a ton of utility. Overall though, a very strong set and has some of the best ways for Caly to break.
SubSeed: As Fc put it best, "SubSeed is funny sometimes". I consider this set to be a nearly-Magnezone level of matchup fishing; it will probably work well against the majority of builds, but can be a 5-6 MU when played against the wrong team. I'd like to make this point clear:
Snarl has almost never been used seriously in tournaments. Now we all know that Snarl is passive as shit, but I really don't like the notion being made here that Snarl is the perfect solution to beat all Calyrex sets. In actuality, SubSeed Calyrex-S has always been limited by the following sets: Taunt Yveltal, Whirlwind Ho-Oh, Blissey, and Zarude (I can't really consider U-Turn Yveltal as any competent player will run a shitload of defense on Caly, but U-Turn can still be useful for pivoting and getting damage on the sub at the same time).
All of the above mons are quite useful in their own right (Tony knows best, Dada is quite a great check to Twave CM Kyogre, Glare Zygarde, a secondary Caly check, etc). You can even run looser measures like Shadow Ball Etern which can KO Caly before it gets the chance to set-up or Roar Kyogre which can be useful in a pinch. Not to mention that the SubSeed set in general isn't super useful on its own should you play a HO team. Some of the above mons in theory get tossed by Taunt SubSeed sets, but I don't think those sets are amazing because lacking NP means you cannot boost, and thus you'd want to run something like Hex instead of Astral with its low 8 PP.
With that being said, the majority of teams do not feature the above mons, making SubSeed Caly quite strong. With the above mons not present, SubSeed can be nearly unstoppable provided it gets a turn to set-up. The question is: are you confident enough that your opponent will not bring one of them? Otherwise, it can be very risky.
Disable + SubNP: When I created this set, I did not think it would have pushed Calyrex-S to get suspected lol. While I do think this set is great, I am not going to lie to you and tell you that the set is perfect; at the same time, it definitely has way more potential than Fc has given it credit for. It's a set that requires good enough prediction and play, just like any other set. If you don't know what this set does, please check my post in the Metagame Discussion Thread where I go into very deep detail about it. My main point I'd like to make here is that: this set is not undefeatable if you don't have Dual Dark attacks Yveltal, Whirlwind Ho-Oh, or Blissey. The most important thing to note is that the turn Calyrex uses Disable is actually an extremely vulnerable turn, giving you an opportunity to switch to a revenge killer safely, or even throwing out Sucker Punch so that Caly can't Disable your main attack; now, this IS readable by the Disable Caly user, so they could fish for another Sub on that turn. This is more possible on Leftovers versions, as they can Substitute much more freely, but dropping Mental Herb means that Taunt Yveltal will beat you. It should also be obvious to a skilled player that Caly is Disable when it switches in and Substitutes turn 1. Still, I think a lot of these predictions are in Caly's favor, so it definitely is a set worth considering for these discussions.
Focus Sash + NP: A modern staple of Hyper-Offense teams, extremely useful for being able to reclaim its Focus Sash thanks to Draining Kiss. A lot of Fast Yveltal sets will usually be 2HKO'd by a +2 Draining Kiss, which can be devastating. As such, a lot of teams using Fast Yveltal will opt for Sucker Punch to counteract this; this is where Disable can come into play, Disabling Sucker Punch and even Knock Off should the Yve not have it can sometimes win the game on the spot. Should the Fast Yve team have Marshadow, Ho-Oh, or just something else that can live a a boosted hit in the back, they are a lot more safe. This mon is really where bulky Yveltal shines the best, as the extra SpD investment lets Yveltal comfortably take 2 Draining Kisses without worry. Modest could be run to have a better chance of 2HKOing some bulkier Yveltal sets, but losing the Speed can really suck especially on a HO build. Technically, Psychic Terrain is another option that can stop both Sucker Punch Yve and Marshadow, but it's riskier than Disable should Yveltal just stay in and attack normally.
Disable LO NP Protect: A new set Aberforth has theorymonned recently, this can be useful for the same reasons of the Sub Disable set, however, by opting for Life Orb, this will give the set a good shot of powering through Ho-Oh at only +2 instead of +4, in exchange for lacking Substitute's protection.
Trick Protect Disable: I don't think this set is very good, while it does technically beat every Yveltal set, you can't boost at all, meaning Astral's 8 PP gets used super quickly and it's really hard to break.
Given all of the sets above, I think the most consistent combinations of mons to beat Caly while using Fast Yveltal would be Yve + Whirlwind Ho-Oh, Taunt Yve + Marshadow, Yveltal + Zarude, or Yveltal + Blissey. Bulky Yveltal sets will win against Sash NP sets and thus don't really require a revenge killer.
If you are willing to (somewhat) sacrifice the SubSeed MU, then any fast Yveltal set will usually work with an additional check or revenge killer in the back to keep Caly at bay (this is where the majority of teams are).
I honestly think that SubSeed Caly provides the most problematic amount of MU fishing but I'm not sure if it's enough to make me want to ban it. Taunt, while not as 100% against SubSeed as Snarl is, is in itself is a great, non-passive option that has uses outside of SubSeed Caly, so it seems easy enough to slot on enough teams to make many players assume it's too risky to go for SubSeed.
On the topic of Disable sets, while they are extremely dangerous, they don't per say require Snarl or dual Dark attacks to win against, but they definitely are harder to play around without them.
So, with the above points, I'm not trying to make it sound like every team has to be Yve + Ho-Oh or Yve + Marsh. I think there's a lot of inbetween that can happen. Mons like Scarf Darm, Scarf Xern, Urshifu, Weavile, Kyogre, SpD Ferro, Giratina-O,
Audino, etc., while not being able to switch in 100% of the time, can often revenge kill and/or take a hit if need be. It's not like Yveltal itself needs to be pigeonholed into 0 Speed investment or 252; there's a lot of in-between that can happen at 308 or 280 or 259, still providing useful Speed when necessary but maintaining more bulk. It's a perfectly viable and normal teambuilding decision to run a bulkier Yveltal to help compensate for teammates who are weak to it.
In addition, these teams will usually be packing NDM and Etern, which can have some situational usefulness vs Caly. I think Etern is the much more relevant one for Pressure and being bulky enough to live boosted Astrals, as well as being one of the best switch-ins for Caly's Trick. Full Sp. Def NDM can be useful, but honestly should not be often run; running anything less than 40 Spe leaves you vulnerable to Caly-I and lets paralyzed Etern and other threats outspeed you. Not good! A decent middle ground is 216 HP / 252 SpD / 40 Spe, which gives you a 50% chance of living a +1 Astral from Timid Caly, but this chance becomes even more suspect when you consider Modest Caly being used more and more. Additionally, you may already be running defense investment on your NDM in order to help against Weavile, so overall I don't see NDM as a great help vs Caly.
Certainly, I think it's shown by just the sheer amount of sets above that dealing with Caly takes a lot more metagame knowledge and smart plays than it did when Caly was first released. Does it make Caly banworthy? I'm not sure myself. While all of these new and unique sets do have significant costs, such as sacrificing Aromatherapy utility or losing to certain matchups they could otherwise win, they will do quite well against the majority of builds. Still, not to sound elitist but, if everyone played as well as SCL players do, I would definitely get the impression that it's banworthy, but not everyone does.
Another point that I think is important to bring up: while I don't like the idea of theorymonning hypothetical metagames, I don't think that banning Caly would have the effect of preventing YEN cores from being used all the time; NDM and Etern would be unaffected, while Yveltal would be free to use many of its devastating offensive sets (which, by the way, I think would force the use of pretty passive pokemon like Defensive Xern, Ttar, or Zama-C to adequately check it). I could also imagine threats like Mewtwo which were limited by Caly checking it being free to wreak havoc, being in some ways harder to check than Caly itself is (remember how nobody realized Zacian-H would be the threat it would become when Zacian-C was banned!). Alternatively, I could also imagine it as a more fast-paced meta like SM, with strong bulky offense styles being prevalent, and that could make it quite fun to the bit slower meta of current SS. Threats like Yveltal could be limited by their Stealth Rock weakness. There's no great way to tell and it's all pure speculation in my eyes. My main thinking in regards to this is, should anything be broken in a post-Caly ban world, I would rather have Caly suspected again than ban more mons.
My overall thoughts are this: Is the teambuilding restrictiveness and MU fishing that Caly brings to the tier enough to be considered banworthy?
If you are going by a more traditional Ubers tiering framework, then I would say no; if you are treating Ubers the same way OU would tier, then I think Caly could -potentially- be considered banworthy. I don't think a mon being strong and centralizing is necessarily the worst thing in the world, and plenty of great tiers like GSC OU or many of the old gens Ubers tiers have had a few mons that are quite comparable. I think centralization can sometimes be healthy, provided that a variety of teams are viable and the more skilled player wins most of the time. Caly definitely doesn't feel broken to me to the point where players will very often lose just due to MU or 50/50 plays like Zacian-Hero did. Personally, I'm not finding that many of my games are being decided by Caly plays. But it does provide a questionable amount of team restrictiveness and hard-to-deal-with play in my eyes.
While the TC has mostly remained No Ban, over time more and more good players like Situm, Reje, and FatFighter have taken some pro-ban stances. While I am still hesitant to fully support the pro-ban side, as a TC member, I have tried to push for complete transparency; should Caly not be problematic, the qualified voters will vote that way, and if it is, then it will be banned and we'll have to deal with that meta as it is at that point.
I have never viewed most tiering decisions as final for the rest of time, so if Caly gets banned, I have no problem seeing how the meta is, and if people think that meta turns much worse, then we can go back to a Caly-legal tier.
Certainly, I know for myself that, at least initially, the meta would be quite fun and a breath of fresh air, as most new metas are, but I have no idea if that impression would last over time. It could, in the long term, make the tier lose a lot of it's flavor; remember that people
like playing Ubers because they can use the big and ridiculously strong mons. In any case,
I definitely do not think that the timing of this tiering decision should have any effect on the outcome. I love you skooma, but the take of "meh it's too late who cares" is not a great one. I'd also hate for people to ban Caly just to get some quick excitement before the new gen drops in a few months. If Caly does end up being banned, I would hope it would be for the right reasons, and not just players in the 1400s or below on ladder banning something because they don't like it.
Hopefully some of the points I have laid about above will give you more of an idea of the development of Caly over time, as well as its current state in the meta! My apologies to you of I did not take a strong stance on either side, but I'm just honestly mixed on this one.