Now that the drought discussion kinda has been put on hold since we're all waiting for the venusaur ban to take place, might as well talk about some potential drops from OU these shifts. All of the mons listed are definitely going to have a strong impact on the tier (NOTE: Not all these drops are guaranteed, these are just the ones that even have a chance of being dropped)
View attachment 265395- While Chansey is still a solid pick in OU, it finds itself outclassed by blissey on balance and many more team archetypes. A couple weeks ago I posted about how if blissey were to rise to OU and this drop down to UUBL, it could be retested due to it and blissey having lots of the similar checks in the tier. I am not saying Blissey is going to rise to OU this shift nor chansey drop this shift, but it's definitely something that could happen and chansey would fit well into the tier, as it does the same things blissey does, though it can get worn down by hazards a bit easier due to it needing eviolite.
View attachment 265396- Alolawak was initially hype at the beginning of dlc due to it being a check to top tier OU mons like magearna and volcarona. Also, poltergeist was just fun to spam. However, the hype has died down and many are starting to realize that there are better checks to magerana and volcarona like rotom-heat and cinderace. Also, weak defenses, reliance of thick club to do damage, meaning it's prone to rocks, and low speed have made players start to realize it isn't as good as it was though to be. Like chansey, there is a chance this thing won't drop these shifts, but it's definitely a mon that will drop to the tier sooner or later. This thing will be tough to check defensively, beating many of the tiers defensive staples.
252+ Atk Thick Club Marowak-Alola Flare Blitz vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Blissey: 562-663 (78.7 - 92.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
252+ Atk Thick Club Marowak-Alola Poltergeist (110 BP) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Rhyperior: 228-268 (52.5 - 61.7%) -- 97.7% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery (rhyperior cant switch in, but can OHKO with earthquake)
252+ Atk Thick Club Marowak-Alola Poltergeist (110 BP) vs. 248 HP / 252+ Def Slowking: 474-558 (120.6 - 141.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252+ Atk Thick Club Marowak-Alola Flare Blitz vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Skarmory: 354-416 (105.9 - 124.5%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252+ Atk Thick Club Marowak-Alola Flare Blitz vs. 252 HP / 212+ Def Weezing-Galar: 204-240 (61 - 71.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Black Sludge recovery
252+ Atk Thick Club Marowak-Alola Poltergeist (110 BP) vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Seismitoad: 246-291 (59.4 - 70.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery ( toad cant switch in but can knock off or scald to do lots of damage)
252+ Atk Thick Club Marowak-Alola Poltergeist (110 BP) vs. 252 HP / 164+ Def Palossand: 410-486 (109.6 - 129.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252+ Atk Thick Club Marowak-Alola Flare Blitz vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Jirachi: 620-732 (181.8 - 214.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO
Basically this thing kills nearly every top defensive mon in the tier with the exception of rhyperior, which still takes heavy damage. It even destroys tier legend jirachi. However, this mon can be checked offensively quite easily. Here's another bunch of calcs, this time of breakers who can kills Alolawak (these all outspeed max speed)
252+ Atk Choice Band Adaptability Crawdaunt Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Marowak-Alola: 608-716 (232.9 - 274.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252 Atk Krookodile Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Marowak-Alola: 270-320 (103.4 - 122.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252 SpA Choice Specs Keldeo Scald vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Marowak-Alola: 468-552 (179.3 - 211.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252 Atk Choice Band Lycanroc-Dusk Stone Edge vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Marowak-Alola: 420-494 (160.9 - 189.2%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252 Atk Life Orb Mimikyu Shadow Claw vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Marowak-Alola: 218-257 (83.5 - 98.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 Atk Guts Obstagoon Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Marowak-Alola: 342-404 (131 - 154.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252+ Atk Choice Band Tyranitar Stone Edge vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Marowak-Alola: 510-600 (195.4 - 229.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252 Atk Choice Band Terrakion Stone Edge vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Marowak-Alola: 450-530 (172.4 - 203%) -- guaranteed OHKO
These are all breakers in the great tier of viability rankings who can threaten alolawak. However, virtually none of these can switch in on alolawak. Final verdict: Im not sure. We have plenty of slow pivots that can bring alolawak in and it can absolutely tear shit up. However, it may be fine in practice rather than on paper as it can be checked offensively by lots of top tier attackers. Definitely a scary drop for us.
View attachment 265397- This mon is the one I'm most sure of dropping. OU has been giving Bisharp a hard time lately. Fire types like cinderace, volcarona, and rotom heat are everywhere, while tier is full of physical walls preparing for a much more threatening dark type; urshifu single strike. The environment just isn't suited for bisharp anymore, making me certain that this will drop saturday. As for how ti does in UU, it'll be very threatening. It will spear head screens HO with support from mons like grimmsnarl. It can bust through many of the tiers top defensive mons, though it is easier to check than alaolwak due to rhyperior, toad, and body press skarm being able to hurt it back. It's also checked by the fast fighting types that define this tier. It also faces competition from other dark types like obstagoon, TTar, incineroar, and krook. Still, it'll be a fearsome breaker wit strong priority and stabs that will be hard to check. Final verdict: I think it'll be manageable. There are so many fast fighters to check it offensively and dark types to give it competition. It may be problematic, but i don't think to the levels of alolawak.
View attachment 265398- The SM UU tier king is another mon that has a solid chance of returning these shifts. Too many fire types in OU beat it out, while it struggles to beat defensive staples like toxapex and corviknight. It also has 4MSS, deciding between SD, U-turn, BP, knock off, and Roost. These factors make it so scizor has a good chance to drop to UU these shifts. As for what it will do, that's obvious. SD BP BP BP BP. Skarm's exisence annoys it and both doublade and pallossand can take on non-knock off variants. Still, it'll be a solid offensive pivot and strong revenge killer to mons like terrakion, lycanroc-dusk, mimikyu, mamoswine, and hatterene. Final verdict: Scizor will be a solid mon in the tier. While it takes advantage of the tiers darks, it has checks like darm, incineroar, scarf fire punch jirachi, flamethrower noivern, and the fast fighters in the tier that will nail it with strong neutral damage.
All in all, here are my thoughts about OU mons likely to drop this upcoming shifts. There may be more drops like rapid-strike urshifu and mew but i felt too lazy to write stuff about them. To sum up, Chansey is a good alternative to blissey should an unlikely bissey rise occur, it's the least likely change to happen though. Alolawak may be too much as we have to rely solely on offensive counter play to it. Bisharp and scizor look manageable and solid tier pokemon to me, but they have a chance of being potentially problematic. UU is going to get strong drops regardless and im excited to see how they'll fit into the tier.