Danny is doing quite excellently in the kick off tour and is currently in it,
at round 5 as I type this he is now in round 6. I thought their round 4 game was fairly interesting and I know their team (and they asked me to look at this game) so I might as well post it here as I know some people are interested in this type of content.
Not going to be as detailed as my last one (sorry, I still need to go through the other game) and I'll mainly be looking at it from Danny's perspective. Disclaimer I'm not trying to imply I'm better than any of these players, it's just useful to analyze games to improve. Especially your own games. ESPECIALLY your losses.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9uu-1755311542-zy3o9ae52oa33drv1w0fqd42j1ubzhzpw
MU and lead
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So I think the MU is fairly balanced, Moute probably has to tip toe a lot to avoid getting swept by Oricorio (especially since Oricoria gets two chances with Revival) + Bramble tends to be good into Tsareena as hazard control. BUT - Gastrodon does wall most of Dany's team, especially as Tinkaton is not Encore for Danny and the Oricorio is tera ground + Bramble has no Grass stab + Azu has no Trailblaze. To be honest, the weakness to Gastrodon and Quagsire makes me think the team can be improved by adding a Grass move somewhere but I digress. Gengar also seems to be a big threat given no Ghost resist. All in all I think it's fairly balanced, if Gengar is like Specs + Gastrodon has Ice Beam I might pick Moute for MU, but not by a significant margin.
Anyways a lead of Azumarill seems reasonable - it's not really getting many opportunities. Actually, I think this is pretty interesting, a lot of people do that a strategy, lead with the mon they think has a fairly bad MU and can't switch in much. It has a few benefits, namely you of course get to come in at least once as a lead for free and you can be like "oh well if I lose it or have a bad lead, it doesn't matter as much since this mon wasn't that important anyways." Obviously this logic isn't always sound and you have to play the specific position, but it's a concrete point that not all players know about.
T1 - liquidation from Azu seems reasonable, keeping Tink low helps a few things, most notably Oricorio can have an easier time sweeping not having to deal with Encore Tinkaton.
T2 - another liquidation which again is reasonable for the same reason, another idea is Play Rough though as the Azumarill still has Aqua Jet later anyways if it predicts wrong here and Play Roughs the Tinkaton. Obviously that would require another prediction though so Liquidation isn't wrong per se.
T3 - This Liquidation I don't really get. This is kind of an example of making a turn based on your opponent's play. What could Moute do here? Powerwhip to kill Azu or U-Turn to Gastro to try and get momentum on a potential U-Turn smacking a switch in. Those are really the only reasonable plays, and Liquidation doesn't really make sense in either case. You could say if there's such thing as a midground play, this would be a low ground play! The only thing I can think of is Danny trying to save his sets (sorry bro Moute has laddered vs me with this team like many many times). That's really not worth the risk of letting Gastro get a free boost which is what happens.
T4 - Quag switch in seems fine, Bramble is tempting as well. But Quagsire does get 2HKO:
+1 0 SpA Gastrodon Earth Power vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Quagsire: 193-228 (48.9 - 57.8%) -- 96.1% chance to 2HKO
So idk, maybe just bite the bullet and stay in with Azumarill then switch out on a predicted rest is more accurate. I understand Danny might have been trying to swap out on a hazard set up turn, but eh, Gastrodon is already a huge threat by itself so Moute clicking an attack is perfectly reasonable.
T5 - Recover seems off. I assume Danny didn't know Earthpower was very likely to 2HKO. Or was predicting hazards again? Well the thing is, hazards was more likely on turn 4 than turn 5 (on turn 5, there was a clearer benefit to attacking quagsire to kill it or keep it low) and Moute showed already on turn 4 he already clicked the attacking move, so another attack on turn 5 was super likely. So the question is, assuming Quagsire is at like 1% and can use a move after Gastro attacks (i.e., assuming it lives Earth Power), what should we click? Well Recover doesn't make much sense, you're just putting yourself in a likely get KOd next turn and making no progress. Toxic or SR are the more reasonable options, Toxic probably best considering how bad Gastrodon went in.
T6 - Bramble probably better since it died to Ice Beam in one anyways later, might as well get the same position but with a living Quagsire. But I understand if you weren't going to calc on turn 4 and 5, you probably wouldn't calc now.
T7 - Spin or Spikes? No grass stab here so don't blame Danny for not clicking that. Of course we don't know Gastro has Ice Beam but we're aware it's a possibility and regardless, even if you think you're going to live this turn, Bramble still has to prioritize which to do first. Not sure if there is a clearly correct answer but I'd probably click Spin too to make Azu's life a lot easier. If you anticipate Ice Beam killing you, (well you probably should go Oricorio in this case but I digress), then Spikes makes little sense since no Bramble = Tsraeena can spin.
T8 - PR makes sense, at least make Gastro burn it's healing PP. But maybe Oricorio was an option instead of Azu, I think wanting to avoid setting up on a +1 Gastro is smart though so I think Azu is good.
T9 - Maybe I would have tried to set up Oricorio instead of going Tink - Oricorio is going to have to try and sweep and it won't get it immediately because Grafaiai exists, but landing a Revelation Dance on Grafaiai or Air Slash on Tsareena would have been important progress. Obviously that requires you to predict well but when you're down 6-4 without any obvious compensation then yeah you do have to try and make plays
T10 and 11 - Nevertheless, Danny makes progress like this (and I'm sure Grafaiai didn't have to eat the Hammer Spammer), more due to good fortune from the opponent's play than his own brilliant play, but this is progress nevertheless. I do get the psychology though - Moute is probably thinking Gastro did a shit ton of work so he wants to keep it in tip top shape and not lose Leftovers, still, it should have been worth it - losing 76% on Grafaiai means Oricorio sweep is looming. And getting Tink knocked for nothing also helps.
T12 - I have no idea what Danny clicked because encore switched his move! Wow! But yeah, staying in is fine for obvious reasons (tink is a grafaiai counter, why would you switch out on a mon that has a pivot move anyways). At this point, I think Danny is now winning although it's close bc Moute still has a revive.
T13 to 19 - I mean he did what he should have done (probably) - attack constantly and pressure Gastro. Honestly I probably would have just set up with Oricorio on turn 13 but avoiding Ice Beam hax is fine, with Grafaiai dead, Oricorio really should be a potent sweeper so his approach is probably correct. Was the crit important? Well yes it made it easier for Danny but as I said, I think he's already winning on turn 12.
T20 - yeah I think it's smart not to jet, you want to play rough to make sure Pawmot can't live + revival blessing.
T21 - Great teras, I didn't know Pawmot could do this to get Double Shock again tbh. So I wouldn't have tera'd Oricorio but apparently Danny did anticipate and know about this mechanic.
T22 - ehhh not a huge fan of another QD but it's not a bad play. The thing is, Revival Blessing Grafaiai is a bit annoying although it will have to likely Encore a Revelation Dance and kill itself like that to let Tsareena come in. The reason I'm not a fan is because I'd love to just kill Pawmot to not deal with this revive nonsense. Yes Tsareena has a (good) chance to live +1 Air Slash most likely (idk Moute's evs), but even if it revenges Oricorio, Danny can still revive it later + a dead Pawmot means Tinkaton has seriously sweeping chances for Danny as it's max speed speed SD.
T23 - i think just kill the pawmot? I mean Seed Bomb is healing more than Roost but Moute does something else anyways so maybe it worked out but Grafaiai is annoying.
T24 - obvious and good
T25 - obvious and good and forced
T26 - honestly, I think you sack Oricorio here to pwhip and do some damage with rdance, go to Tink and SD, then try and sweep. Not sure about hard switching to Tink but I suppose Oricorio is close to a sweep to. But Tink was very close to sweeping so yeah idk. There might be some psychology going on (not sure, maybe Danny just thought Oricorio is legit better at sweeping) - often times, when you have a mon that just did a lot of work, you want to preserver it. Oricorio just got 2 KOs so obviously you want to keep it, but in times like this you have to take a step back and breathe and objectively evaluate. Yes Oriocorio did work, but is it rlly better than tink? IMO no but this is not a clear yes/no question.
T27 - Twave seems too respectful to Moute - Gigaton put Tsareena in Air Slash range so I would have done that. Was he really going to Synthesis? Eh it seemed unlikely but I guess it's possible and what Danny anticipated
T28 - hammer is just as good as it was t27 when I said it was good
T29 - sd is fine so if Tsareena syntehsis now, it gets hammer spammered next turn
T30 - sack tink seems right
T31 - double shock seems right although maybe tsareena was better for Moute
T32 - maybe would have used QD here to make sure Tsareena dies to Air Slash, Gengar can't be Scarf or else it wouldn't have killed Pawmot.
T33 - obvious and good
Anyways an entertaining game - anyone (including players) feel free to tell me if something I said makes no sense and I'm an idiot which is entirely possible, even likely.
