50/50's with sucker punch should not be raised as an issue, considering that 50/50's make up the competitive meta and every good pokemon forces them as often as they can. Also "lol you will-o-wisp the sucker punch, Mawile is easy to fight!" is not something you can do against smart players, who may have anything from a good will-o switchin, a sub Mawile set, or a cleric to which they can get the kill and gladly run to, fixing the "crippled" Mawile.
Thing about Mawile is it does have to rely on sucker punch in situations against faster pokemon, and there's a good few. I think Mawile's ridiculous, but so is Char X and Thundurus, and it should be dealt with. I'm anti-ban, BUT I don't entirely care to say my opinion more than that. The collective of all of us knows more about this metagame than any given one of us. I will provide some data however.
Since a lot of people are talking about the prio, let's give Mawile an ideal scenario, it switches into an attack with mimimal damage, forces them out and does a swords dance. This is ideal for Mawile, and I made some assumptions, but it's safe to say that with full hp Mawile this can and may happen once a match in the hands of a good player. Now, I've heard sucker punch to be the reason for ban from a lot of folks. This might make sense, as a +2 sucker punch kills.....well, let's find out. Here's the OU viability list, in order, and their bulk against a sucker punch.
S Rank
- Azumarill: +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mega Mawile Sucker Punch vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Azumarill: 198-233 (49 - 57.6%) -- 96.1% chance to 2HKO
- Charizard X: +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mega Mawile Sucker Punch vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Mega Charizard X: 301-355 (101 - 119.1%) -- guaranteed OHKO, I'm giving this to Mega Mawile DESPITE the fact that will-o-wisp bulky Char X has this matchup for free, since SD sucker punch does more than either STAB, which cannot react to a will-o-wisp, and spamming play rough while burned will not last long enough versus roost and will-o, in this case Subpunch would still not guaranteed ohko, but do much better. That said, remember that sub/punch would remove the +2 from these other calcs, in addition to some coverage. I'm giving this to Mawile because it beats the offensive set, but it should be noted this isn't in either person's favor depending on set.
- Keldeo: +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mega Mawile Sucker Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Keldeo: 179-211 (55.4 - 65.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
- Landorus: +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mega Mawile Sucker Punch vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Landorus: 359-423 (112.1 - 132.1%) -- guaranteed OHKO
- Thundurus: +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mega Mawile Sucker Punch vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Thundurus: 441-519 (147 - 173%) -- guaranteed OHKO
A+ Rank
- Charizard Y: +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mega Mawile Sucker Punch vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Mega Charizard Y: 404-476 (135.5 - 159.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO
- Clefable: +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mega Mawile Sucker Punch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Clefable: 144-170 (36.5 - 43.1%) -- 98.6% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery, and with unaware doesn't die to a +2 play rough either.
- Excadrill: +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mega Mawile Sucker Punch vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Excadrill: 498-586 (137.5 - 161.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO
- Garchomp: +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mega Mawile Sucker Punch vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Garchomp: 344-405 (96 - 113.1%) -- 75% chance to OHKO
- Greninja: +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mega Mawile Sucker Punch vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Greninja: 228-269 (79.7 - 94%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
- Gyarados (mega): +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mega Mawile Sucker Punch vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Mega Gyarados: 153-180 (46 - 54.2%) -- 53.1% chance to 2HKO
- Heatran: +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mega Mawile Sucker Punch vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Heatran: 313-369 (81 - 95.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers
- Latias: Lolnope
- Latios: Lolnope
- Pinsir (Mega): +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mega Mawile Sucker Punch vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Mega Pinsir: 280-330 (103.3 - 121.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO
- Scizor (Mega): +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mega Mawile Sucker Punch vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Mega Scizor: 246-290 (71.5 - 84.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
- Talonflame: +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mega Mawile Sucker Punch vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Talonflame: 436-513 (146.3 - 172.1%) -- guaranteed OHKO
- Tyranitar (Mega): +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mega Mawile Sucker Punch vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Mega Tyranitar: 116-136 (33.9 - 39.7%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
- Venusaur (Mega): +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mega Mawile Sucker Punch vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Mega Venusaur: 276-325 (75.8 - 89.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO (irrelevant because sleep powder, Venusaur will do well in this spot versus SD Mawile)
A Rank
- Bisharp: +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mega Mawile Sucker Punch vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Bisharp: 164-194 (60.2 - 71.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO (irrelevant in Mawile's favor because Bisharp has barely a 2hko to respond with)
- Dragonite: +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mega Mawile Sucker Punch vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Multiscale Dragonite: 172-202 (53 - 62.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
- Ferrothorn: Doesn't matter because without fire fang or focus punch this is wholly in Ferrothorn's favor. I'm calcing standard right now because it does deal with the most threats, so it'd be a good litmus test of how many threats individual sets take, so this one is not in Mawile's favor.
- Gengar: HAHAHAHA, ded, is what I would say, except that sub-disable and will-o-wisp Gengar sets do extremely well in this situation, speed makes up for this terrifying number. +2 252+ Atk Huge Power burned Mega Mawile Play Rough vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Gengar: 210-247 (80.1 - 94.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Black Sludge recovery
- Gliscor: +2 252+ Atk Huge Power burned Mega Mawile Sucker Punch vs. 252 HP / 184+ Def Gliscor: 106-125 (29.9 - 35.3%) -- 2% chance to 4HKO. Sub and play rough not 2hko'ing after poison heal makes this one a lost cause for Mawile.
- Hippowdon: +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mega Mawile Play Rough vs. 228 HP / 252+ Def Hippowdon: 357-420 (86.2 - 101.4%) -- 12.5% chance to OHKO -- 12.5% chance to OHKO, made relevant by putting 28 EVs in speed to outspeed bulky Mawile builds, who have an easier time setting up anyway. I did play rough because it's slower. Despite the near ohko, a sucker punch versus play rough in the case of Hippo's next-turn slack off versus EQ makes this a true 50/50 resulting in the death of either poke, I'm giving it to Hippo since this is in an ideal situation for Mawile in the matchup.
- Landorus-T: +1 252+ Atk Huge Power burned Mega Mawile Sucker Punch vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Landorus-T: 135-159 (42.1 - 49.6%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
- Mamoswine: +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mega Mawile Sucker Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Mamoswine: 396-466 (109.6 - 129%) -- guaranteed OHKO
- Mandibuzz: Irrelevant because Mandi cannot do anything to threaten Mawile once in.
- Rotom-W: +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mega Mawile Play Rough vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Rotom-W: 382-450 (125.6 - 148%) -- guaranteed OHKO, and just to be complete about things, +2 252+ Atk Huge Power burned Mega Mawile Play Rough vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Rotom-W: 191-225 (62.8 - 74%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
- Terrakion: +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mega Mawile Sucker Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Terrakion: 179-211 (55.4 - 65.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO, made worse for Mawile in the case of subrrakion sets.
- Tyranitar (regular): +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mega Mawile Sucker Punch vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Tyranitar: 151-178 (44.1 - 52%) -- 16.8% chance to 2HKO
A- Rank
- Breloom: +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mega Mawile Sucker Punch vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Breloom: 198-233 (75.5 - 88.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO, made worse via spore.
- Chansey: Not relevant, what the hell can Chansey do?
- Diggersby: +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mega Mawile Sucker Punch vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Diggersby: 408-481 (130.7 - 154.1%) -- guaranteed OHKO
- Gardevoir (Mega): +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mega Mawile Sucker Punch vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Mega Gardevoir: 467-550 (167.9 - 197.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO
- Gyarados (regular): +1 252+ Atk Huge Power Mega Mawile Sucker Punch vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Gyarados: 300-353 (90.3 - 106.3%) -- 37.5% chance to OHKO
- Heracross (Mega): +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mega Mawile Sucker Punch vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Mega Heracross: 146-172 (48.3 - 56.9%) -- 91% chance to 2HKO
- Kyurem-B: +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mega Mawile Sucker Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Kyurem-B: 329-388 (84.1 - 99.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
- Manaphy: +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mega Mawile Sucker Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Manaphy: 329-388 (96.4 - 113.7%) -- 81.3% chance to OHKO
- Medicham (Mega): +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mega Mawile Sucker Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Medicham: 417-491 (159.7 - 188.1%) -- guaranteed OHKO
- Mew: +2 252+ Atk Huge Power burned Mega Mawile Play Rough vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Mew: 277-327 (68.5 - 80.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery, more relevant than the sucker punch calc because the only mew set to ever switch in would be the stallbreaker will-o version.
- Skarmory: +2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mega Mawile Sucker Punch vs. 252 HP / 232+ Def Skarmory: 189-223 (56.5 - 66.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
The downside of an Aegislash-less meta is this little thing runs wild.
So, 21 of those 43 pokemon can, when Mawile gets a safe switchin and boost on switchout (which does take a modicum of skill), take a +2 sucker punch and do something. A few of these pokemon would die to a sub on switchin or a focus punch or a fire fang as coverage, but saying it did that would also remove some of the ko's Mawile would get by missing a coverage move or by not SD'ing and being at +2 in the first place, so there are both factors for and against Mawile at play from this list. It's impossible to boil down all matchups, and to say "well Mawile can have this" while subconsciously remembering the advantages Mawile gets from running standard, two things that cannot happen at once, is a logical fallacy.
Additional info in favor of Mawile: With the standard set, a play rough on switchin followed by a sucker punch does impact many of these matchups differently, and should be considered. But SD is what we should test, as it is the reason Mawile can take out multiple pokemon, and is the reason this suspecting even came up.
Back to the point. 21 out of 43 when you find the time to safely boost. If I checked the numbers for Charizard X after a dragon dance, or maybe Sheer Orb Landorus after a calm mind, using all their coverage moves rather than just sucker punch because they have the speed to do so, I would find similar numbers. In faaaact, let's take a short look
Landorus in a similar boost-on-switchout Scenario
+1 252 SpA Life Orb Sheer Force Landorus Earth Power vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Azumarill: 407-481 (100.7 - 119%) -- guaranteed OHKO
+1 252 SpA Life Orb Sheer Force Landorus Earth Power vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Mega Charizard X: 782-923 (262.4 - 309.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO
+1 252 SpA Life Orb Sheer Force Landorus Psychic vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Keldeo: 497-585 (153.8 - 181.1%) -- guaranteed OHKO
+1 252 SpA Life Orb Sheer Force Landorus Earth Power vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Mega Mawile: 710-837 (233.5 - 275.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO
+1 252 SpA Life Orb Sheer Force Landorus Psychic vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Thundurus: 274-324 (91.3 - 108%) -- 50% chance to OHKO (AND 252 SpA Life Orb Thundurus Hidden Power Ice vs. +1 4 HP / 0 SpD Landorus: 265-317 (82.8 - 99%) -- guaranteed 2HKO)
+1 252 SpA Life Orb Sheer Force Landorus Psychic vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Mega Charizard Y: 203-239 (68.1 - 80.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
+1 252 SpA Life Orb Sheer Force Landorus Earth Power vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Clefable: 374-441 (94.9 - 111.9%) -- 68.8% chance to OHKO
+1 252 SpA Life Orb Sheer Force Landorus Focus Blast vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Excadrill: 863-1016 (238.3 - 280.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO
+1 252 SpA Life Orb Sheer Force Landorus Earth Power vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Garchomp: 391-461 (109.2 - 128.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO
+1 252 SpA Life Orb Sheer Force Landorus Earth Power vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Greninja: 452-534 (158 - 186.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO (Irrelevant in Greninja's favor because ice beam and higher speed
+1 252 SpA Life Orb Sheer Force Landorus Focus Blast vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Mega Gyarados: 486-572 (146.3 - 172.2%) -- guaranteed OHKO
+1 252 SpA Life Orb Sheer Force Landorus Focus Blast vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Heatran: 419-494 (108.5 - 127.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO
Latias and Latios: would win that matchup if I was using Sludge Wave, but like with Mawile, looking at the more standard part of coverage moves to be fair.
+1 252 SpA Life Orb Sheer Force Landorus Psychic vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Mega Pinsir: 250-294 (92.2 - 108.4%) -- 50% chance to OHKO
+1 252 SpA Life Orb Sheer Force Landorus Earth Power vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Mega Scizor: 341-402 (99.1 - 116.8%) -- 93.8% chance to OHKO
+1 252 SpA Life Orb Sheer Force Landorus Psychic vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Talonflame: 309-364 (103.6 - 122.1%) -- guaranteed OHKO
+1 252 SpA Life Orb Sheer Force Landorus Earth Power vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Mega Tyranitar in Sand: 393-463 (114.9 - 135.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO
+1 252 SpA Life Orb Sheer Force Landorus Psychic vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Mega Venusaur: 387-458 (106.3 - 125.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO
And for shits and giggles: +1 252 SpA Life Orb Sheer Force Landorus Focus Blast vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Assault Vest Tyranitar in Sand: 390-463 (96.5 - 114.6%) -- 81.3% chance to OHKO
Out of 20 pokemon, 6 can take a shot, not including coverage moves like sludge wave, and I am being generous and counting this matchup in Mega Gyarados's favor (will not die to psychic, Earth Power or Focus Blast if it had not mega'ed), and Thundurus's favor (faster and cannot ohko but 50% chance to live and strike again), in addition to Lati@s, Greninja, and Char Y.
Also notice that in this situation, prio doesn't entirely matter, the main contenders are Azumarill (81.2 - 96.2% if using Band, will not ohko), Talonflame (80 - 94.6% with Band, same as Zoomy), and of course Mawile (56.2 - 66.2%, won't even kill after hazards)
Now, there's other prio, but it doesn't impact this matchup in the slightest, even Mega Pinsir, who I had a 50% chance to ohko, does a small amount with quick attack after switching in.
252 Atk Aerilate Mega Pinsir Quick Attack vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Landorus: 106-126 (33.1 - 39.3%) -- 100% chance to 3HKO
Return and Quick Attack can kill, but I'd put this one in Landorus's favor.
6 out of 20 versus 21 out of 43.
Charizard X in a similar boost-on-switchout Scenario
+1 252+ Atk Tough Claws Mega Charizard X Flare Blitz vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Azumarill: 258-305 (63.8 - 75.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO, Azumarill can take a shot and retaliate with a banded play rough that doesn't quite ohko, but might after recoil....what the heck, let's give it to her anyway.
+1 252+ Atk Tough Claws Mega Charizard X Dragon Claw vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Keldeo: 312-367 (96.5 - 113.6%) -- 75% chance to OHKO
+1 252+ Atk Tough Claws Mega Charizard X Flare Blitz vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Landorus: 469-553 (146.5 - 172.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO
+1 252+ Atk Tough Claws Mega Charizard X Flare Blitz vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Mega Mawile: 710-836 (233.5 - 275%) -- guaranteed OHKO
+1 252+ Atk Tough Claws Mega Charizard X Flare Blitz vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Thundurus: 577-679 (192.3 - 226.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO
+1 252+ Atk Tough Claws Mega Charizard X Flare Blitz vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Mega Charizard Y in Sun: 396-466 (132.8 - 156.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO
+1 252+ Atk Tough Claws Mega Charizard X Flare Blitz vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Clefable: 378-445 (95.9 - 112.9%) -- 75% chance to OHKO (and solidly 2hko's unaware variants so that doesn't really change the matchup)
+1 252+ Atk Tough Claws Mega Charizard X Flare Blitz vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Excadrill: 1302-1532 (359.6 - 423.2%) -- guaranteed OHKO
+1 252+ Atk Tough Claws Mega Charizard X Dragon Claw vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Garchomp: 594-702 (165.9 - 196%) -- guaranteed OHKO
+1 252+ Atk Tough Claws Mega Charizard X Dragon Claw vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Greninja: 396-466 (138.4 - 162.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO
252+ Atk Tough Claws Mega Charizard X Dragon Claw vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Mega Gyarados: 178-210 (53.6 - 63.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO, counting intimidate on this one.
252+ Atk Mega Charizard X Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Heatran: 456-540 (118.1 - 139.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO
Lati@s: so very dead
+1 252+ Atk Tough Claws Mega Charizard X Flare Blitz vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Mega Pinsir: 732-864 (270.1 - 318.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO
+1 252+ Atk Tough Claws Mega Charizard X Flare Blitz vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Mega Scizor: 1288-1516 (374.4 - 440.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO, the deadest
+1 252+ Atk Tough Claws Mega Charizard X Dragon Claw vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Talonflame: 378-445 (126.8 - 149.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO
+1 252+ Atk Mega Charizard X Earthquake vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Mega Tyranitar: 252-298 (73.6 - 87.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
+1 252+ Atk Tough Claws Mega Charizard X Flare Blitz vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Thick Fat Mega Venusaur: 360-426 (98.9 - 117%) -- 93.8% chance to OHKO, what thick fat?
Out of 20 pokemon, 3 can take the shot. Hehehe...
In the same case as Landorus, the relevant prio is Mawile (50.6 - 59.7%), Mega Pinsir (30.2 - 35.5%), and Talonflame (72.4 - 85.5% with Band), and all of them do a little less than they do to Lando, plus recoil from Flare Blitz when applicable, balances out relatively.
Both of these pokemon have much better sweeping ratios than Mawile, and when they are played smart, they also get one near-guaranteed kill. Less bulk, no intimidate, more power, don't care about burn, more speed, still amazing typings, there are trade-offs in favor of Mawile and trade-offs in favor of these two. The point I'm making is, if you get such similar results with Mawile as other big smashy pokemon...is it broken at that point or just really damn good? My thoughts are toward the latter.
We're playing with wrecking balls all over the place. I am voting no ban. I won't be offended if the ban passes, but I think this thing can stay, offensive powerhouse or not.