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Official MLB 2012 Season Thread
- Thread starter tennisace
- Start date
Seems kinda pointless to make a thread per season, unlike say football, it's pretty easy to revive baseball every year since it gets a fraction of the posts (133 pages and still going in the football just for this last year compared to 75 total pages over 4 years in the baseball)...
Anyways, go Dbacks, looking forward to going to a few spring training games this year.
Anyways, go Dbacks, looking forward to going to a few spring training games this year.
So Wakefield retired, too bad to see him go, always flet like he could pitch to 50.
In other news, go Blue Jays!
In other news, go Blue Jays!
Agreed about the timing, but not the result. This is quite a hall for a front office personnel who has not won a single playoff game in three years with the leagues 3rd largest payroll. Carpenter is a big league prospect, and our PTBNL trade should net us another high quality prospect after the Cubs compensate the Padres for Hoyer.
Any person who thinks getting Theo inEpstein should cost the same prospect-wise as trading for Matt Latos is out of their fucking mind and they need immediate medical attention. Waiting in this case appears to have not been too big of a deal, and I salute Ben for getting his "significant" player. I consider this to be robbery on the high seas, and all Red Sox fans should rejoice.
I'm quite happy with Chris Carpenter and this new thread. :]
The overall feeling I've gotten from other Red Sox fans is "it took 4 months to settle for this?" I mean, this is a guy who ranked 14th on Kevin Goldstein's Cubs list. For a system that isn't that deep, that's pretty bad. He was the guy the Red Sox originally asked for, then backed off and that's what created the 4 month wait. Now they ended up settling for him.
With all the Theo hype created by their fans, the media and by the Cubs for making him the highest paid President, I was hoping for someone a little more intriguing than a 26 year old reliever with a high walk rate. Clearly Theo is worth a lot to the Cubs.
This is essentially me summarizing scouting reports for people interested on Chris Carpenter (also for the interest of all Red Sox fan pleaseeeeee take the tinted glasses of he's actually a major work in progress):
-rocks an above average fastball and slider at the upper end of the speed spectrum, 96-100 mph on the fastball with a mid 80s slider with pretty good break.
-his third pitch is a changeup that has no vertical movement and just comes out like a slower fastball, its below average, and theres pretty much no room for development there.
-the biggest issues are the control (or lack there of) and age... he's 26, and wasn't a highly rated prospect to begin with. He's capable of being a low leverage big league arm but won't be able to do more than that unless he somehow cuts down on the walks. Pretty black and white there.
-and I think the highest I saw him on prospect list was 11th.... not much hope there.
-rocks an above average fastball and slider at the upper end of the speed spectrum, 96-100 mph on the fastball with a mid 80s slider with pretty good break.
-his third pitch is a changeup that has no vertical movement and just comes out like a slower fastball, its below average, and theres pretty much no room for development there.
-the biggest issues are the control (or lack there of) and age... he's 26, and wasn't a highly rated prospect to begin with. He's capable of being a low leverage big league arm but won't be able to do more than that unless he somehow cuts down on the walks. Pretty black and white there.
-and I think the highest I saw him on prospect list was 11th.... not much hope there.
Again, it's not like we traded away Matt Latos. This is a great prospect for a front office idiot who was close to being upright fired. Carpenter is not being looked at as the second comming of Jesus Christ. I see him as a Joel Zumaya/Dan Bard-esque bullpener. The guy has some big potential and is a great edition to our farm system. I'll take any free prospects I can get, and hopefully a better guy like Trey McNutt is part of the prospect swap, but I doubt it. This is the best player that I expected to get.
But hey. It seems like the Red Sox are one of the most hated teams in baseball. If you want to hate us, go ahead and hate us and hate everything we do. But if you are going to say that I have tinted glasses on by saying I like who we got, maybe you should fuck off and go follow a different sport.
But hey. It seems like the Red Sox are one of the most hated teams in baseball. If you want to hate us, go ahead and hate us and hate everything we do. But if you are going to say that I have tinted glasses on by saying I like who we got, maybe you should fuck off and go follow a different sport.
woah woah woahhhhh no need for the attacks....
Is it wrong to call people out for team bias? Not at all. It's better to inform the population of what they're incorrectly assuming based on information fed by the media. I wasn't JUST making the statement to you, so calm down on that end. The fact that you're going after me now is just even more reason to start talking about bias, but that's a different story.
The fact that you're making comparisons of Carpenter to Bard is a bit preposterous. That's overvaluing him, just look at his scouting reports and results! Thats pretty much fact, sorry.
Fact is, Carpenter is significant. Sorry man, but there's pretty much no arguing this. This is a guy ranked outside of the top ten on a WEAK farm system, a guy with serious issues, is old, and unlike to develop. He's more likely to have a negative value than positive.
Just don't reduce yourself to petty expletives when you can't respond to an argument.
First of all, I don't think you know what the hell you are talking about. Everything I will say I have already said before, so don't say I don't have an argument or that I can't respond, as you just can't read and rationalize. If you "want the facts", I'll give you the facts. I'm only going to spell this out once more, you can have your response, and then we will leave it at that and move on despite our differences if you are mature enough. But from your comments toward the situation and towards my reaction, I'm guessing you’re not. But hell, prove me wrong.
In case you didn't know, the Red Sox were compensated for Theo Epstein. He is not a player, but a front office man and an average one at that. He is not a Andrew Friedman or a Billy Beane or a Brian Cashman. He wins because the funds which he commands allow him to make mistakes. Tampa Bay and Oakland can't afford to make judgment mistakes on bums like John Lackey, Julio Lugo, Bobby Jenks, Dice-K, Eric Gagne, John Smoltz, JD Drew or Carl Crawford (though it was only one year). His trades and draft strategy/prospect building allow him to somewhat make up for that to an extent, but those high money offseason blunder deals are just mind boggling, as he has not gotten one guy right. His moneyball-esque low risk guys like Papi, and Aceves usually turn out well, but he wastes so much money and screws up so badly on such an important aspect of the game that he really hurts our team. He is not as revolutionary as Beane or Towers, not as crafty as Friedman, and not as strong in Free Agent spending and overall winning as Cashman. He just isn't all that remarkable and slightly above average.
Another thing to consider is the value of Front Office personnel, which is very unclear. It is easy to compare Theo to another GM, but not so easy to put a player value on him. GM's don't play every day and don't have an immediate impact on the game. Theo's strategy has been struggling of late and has been eclipsed by the influence of Friedman, as he has failed reach the playoffs two years in a row with the league’s 3rd highest payroll while Friedman has been to the playoffs many times while having one of the lowest payrolls in baseball. I think that after September Collapse, he should have been fired. Adding in that he only has one year of team control left, you are looking at the equivalent of trading Eric Bedard at the deadline this summer. And we only sent Seattle some AA outfielder not on our top 20 prospect list who was just clogging our system.
So when you look at it from that angle, Chris Carpenter does not seem all that bad. He has big league potential in him has all the stuff needed to supply some impact at the major league level. He is not going to be a superstar tossing in all-star games, but he has the chance to be good enough guy to provide some quality inning out of the bullpen. As you said, he has some control problems that are an issue, but so does Androlis Chapman and Carlos Marmol. And though he is 26, he still has time to learn how to pitch. Being on a team with guys like Bailey and Melancon and Bard and Aceves will help him out. He is no worse off than Andrew Miller, and I still value him.
The comparison to Dan Bard was to his stuff. Both throw FB's in the 98-100 range, both have a above average slider, and both are RHP. I'm not saying that he is going to be Dan, I'm just saying he has a very similar skill set to when Dan was coming up. If you remember, we were worried with Dan's location as well. It's just natural for these types of hard throwers to have control problems. A comparison to Joel Zumaya (without the health problems) would be better, but Dan Bard just came to my mind because he is on the same team.
His numbers are not all that bad, as in 2009 he had a 2.82 ERA and a 118-52 K/BB ratio and in 10 major league appearances holds a 2.79 ERA. In the Fall League, he had a 18-to-2 K to BB rate with a 3.29 ERA. His homeruns are not bad for a fastball pitcher. One of the reasons why Carpenter is not valued super high on the Cubs prospect list is because he is a MINOR LEAGUE RELIEF PITCHER. Generally, there is not really that high of a ceiling for pitchers who can't start in the eyes of scouts. Scouts are also worried that his injury issues in college will hurt him and they bring him down because of that, but he has had no major issues in the minor leagues and has already had Tommy John, so he won't have to go through that again. Another thing, the guy is 26 years old and is still young to figure things out and make a name for himself.
The guy can still throw 100 MPH, which is something very few people can do, so he has an advantage there stuff wise. The injuries are a non-issue right now, as they have not caused an issue in his time in the minors. Don't really mind that he is limited to the bullpen, as we have some bullpen holes to fill with Paps leaving and Bard and Aceves converting to SP'ers. The only thing that remains an issue is his mechanics, but if he can get that under control, he will succeed and will be a nice asset out of the pen for Bobby V midseason.
So in conclusion, no, Chris Carpenter is not the greatest prospect ever. I’d consider him to be a B or a B-. He could be something special like a Dan Bard or he could be a bust. Yes, I would rather have Trey McNutt or another starting pitcher. But I am far more content with Carpenter than I would be with the pile of shit that the Yanks got from the Pirates for AJ Burnett. And we didn't really have to lose a single player to get him. I'm not going to be one of those guys who bitch because we didn't get Matt Garza, or Brett Jackson or Starling Castro because you have to be insane to believe that Theo is worth that much. I’m also not going to say that the Red Sox should have not allowed Theo to go to Chicago, because I believe he should have been fired after the season and I don’t think the cubs would have shelled out the farm. Cubs could have just waited, because Theo was unhappy and wanted out and the Red Sox would have gotten less than this if nothing at all.
Also, don't forget that we still have a good prospect coming our way in the PTBNL trade, so Carp is not all we are getting, and that makes the pot even sweeter. Now if you excuse me, I have a plane to catch.
They blew the chain of custody. That's such a rookie mistake. This is like a Rodger Clemens-esque fuck up by the drug testers...
More character assaults, great. I obviously cannot read and cannot rationalize things at all, thank you. I appreciate that. I have no idea what I'm talking about when it comes to baseball. I don't appreciate the logic you take when you say that "you've given everything before." You obviously haven't, there's a reason there's a whole section of your post that includes statistics you've never talked about.
I did not once, ever, insult your character. You talk about ideas like maturity. Don't ignore your own words.
Fact of the matter is, you are only making this response to me because it is on the topic of the Red Sox. Denying that is silly. I mean, you go on saying lines like "no wonder everyone hates the Red Sox" when I have made no negative statements towards them and think you aren't being biased? Everyone is biased. Fuck, talk to me about the Blue Jays. I'll show all the bias I want to, all the homerism. Just don't let that bias blind you in a logical discussion.
I'm not sure I ever talked about Epstein's value as a GM, so this seems like a bit of a tangent. Either way, there are some things that just seem wrong in the post. A couple of the "blunders" you listed (Smoltz, Gagne) were contracts that either on the end of their life or were one year deals. Those aren't big things. Even the genius Andrew Friedman makes one year deals that don't work out. That's why they're so great. J.D Drew has been vilified by media from the start of his career, by had two solid years (2007, 2010), two All Star level years (2008, 2009) [All Star reference based on statistics, not if he didn't made the game, I can't be assed to check that meaningless accolade] He played poorly last year due to injury, but to say his entire contract was a bust? He was payed 70$ million dollars over five years. Consider the market value of WAR to be around 5 million per year (I can link you to the articles that have the background to prove this if you so please). Based on Fangraphs, he provided a WAR of 13 over his contract, which gives us a final value of playing time at around 65$ million. He played pretty well. Sure, his last year was horrendous, but to say that the contrast is a wash is just silly.
The other thing that caught me off guard was the "overall winning as Cashman" phrase. Two world Series, plus perennial 90 game winners? They're pretty close to each other. Cashman had a lot more success at the start, but that was also due to the organisation he was given, with the core of the Yankees already present. I think the other thing that needs to be said is that the Red Sox don't spend to the same extreme, which gives Cashman even more leeway than Epstein had. To be honest, I'd say Epstein is into the good range of GMs, having drafted the strongest core, and a great bunch of prospects. He had a great idea of knowing when to go overslot, and the Red Sox system kept pushing great prospect after great prospect.
Gonna address the playoff thing now first. The "many times" and "two years in a row" thing. Let's look over four years! Tampa has been in 3/4, Red Sox 2/4. That doesn't seem too drastic. I mean, the Red Sox had one of the best lineups all year in 2011. They should've made the playoffs, but some players didn't perform to the levels they previously had and many key players injured. I think it's just silly to say "struggling of late" when they've been averaging 90+ wins and have been out of the play offs due to silly reasons. Stop using him as a scapegoat. He did a fine job building them into where they are.
To address your point of front office value, how do they not have an immediate impact on the game? Sure, they don't play or manage, but the people playing the game are all there because of the GM. That seems to be plenty of impact. I mean, if it wasn't, why are you arguing the value that is super genius Andrew Friedman? And woahhhhhhh way to make assumptions on the value of GMs. I didn't even want to talk about it that way, I just wanted to say that you're overstating the value of Carpenter. Either way, I think it's absurd to say that he has that little value. Hell, the Rays traded Randy Winn, coming off a 4.8 WAR year FOR JUST THE RIGHT to talk with Lou Pinella, and it's kinda obvious managers have less of an impact then GMs.
I'm just going to ignore the part where you state that from your angle Chris Carpenter is not bad at all. Aroldis Chapman has control issues, but he makes up for them by the fact that he is 3 years younger, and strikes out wayyyyy more batters. Look at the rates of Chapman, 34.3% K 19.8% BB. Now compare that to Carpenter. 17.0% K 14.9% BB. That's kinda a major difference in K in comparison to their BB. Marmol might seem to have had a bad ERA, but he posted better rate states than the two. 30.3% K 14.7% BB rates for Marmol... still far superior.
I'm not going to address the issue of Zumaya, I'm looking at his stats and he's just been too injured to make a fair assessment. Instead, let me address two things
1. The statistics you referenced aren't really relevant. The problem with his minor league stats are that he was playing at a level that was below his age group. Here, this article does a great job summarizing points about age vs. level. Let's just say that there's a reason that the prospects who come out at that age don't make an impact. Also, how convenient we ignore the AAA stats he posted over his entire period there. Not very good stats.
Then, the major league stats. ERA for 9.2 IP doesn't mean shit. If you're only going to look at conventional stats, then you're doing a bad job of trying to inform yourself. Look at his rates for that segment, 17.0% K, 14.9% BB. That's not good. He posted a K/BB of 1.14, and had a FIP of 4.89. That's negative value. He got lucky, and you're trying to claim his success based off of this. Arizona Fall League is very similar to this, small sample size against vastly inferior competition.
In no way is he a B or B- prospect. I didn't refute your point about minor league relief pitcher value until now. Let me do that. You know why people don't value minor relief pitchers? Because they don't offer value to their teams a vast majority of the time. There is no values in guys who you don't even know will be able to serve as relief for a handful of innings all year. Only in the rare exception of VERY special talents do these relief pitchers come up to add value. Also, a B or B- prospect is an every day player that is good. Look at the work of John Sickels when grading prospects, who had Carpenter at a C+. These are replacement level players.
Lastly, 26 is not young in baseball terms. That is their prime numbers age. If a guy at HIS PRIME can barely keep up with triple A, how's he going to improve now? Also, that's just fluff saying "good guys" around the bullpen will help someone improve..
But yeah, I was just saying that Carpenter was being overrated by yourself and provided logical proof as to why. Thanks for blowing that out of hand.
I just read that Roy Oswalt has elected to continue to be a free agent and look to sign midseason instead of signing now. Kind of a shame, because he is such a good player that could make a real impact on any contending team.
Edit:
This Just In From Jetblue...
Is it just me or does Josh actually look in shape?
Edit:
This Just In From Jetblue...
Is it just me or does Josh actually look in shape?
I just read that Roy Oswalt has elected to continue to be a free agent and look to sign midseason instead of signing now. Kind of a shame, because he is such a good player that could make a real impact on any contending team.
Edit:
This Just In From Jetblue...
Is it just me or does Josh actually look in shape?
Wow, he must have layed off the chicken and beer! Couldn't find the thread, lots have happened since I last checked with ryan braun's whole ordeal and stuff. Your opinions and predictions for this year?
Ryan Zimmerman got a 5-year, $44MM extention and Jason Varitek is expected to announce retirement in the next couple of days since he has not reported to Sox camp.
And considering this was here he was last year, I'm calling some major effort with Josh...
And considering this was here he was last year, I'm calling some major effort with Josh...
Nope it was 6 years 100 mil with an option for a 7th worth 24 mil. I don't think the Nats overpaid that much considering he's one of the top defensive 3rd basemen and can hit (when healthy). Also the Nationals have the following players signed until at least 2015: Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth, Gio Gonzalez, Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Danny Espinosa, Wilson Ramos, Tyler Clippard, Drew Storen, Anthony Rendon, and Bryce Harper. They're also looking at Gerardo Parra via trade (or they could wait until BJ Upton/Shane Victorino/Michael Bourn hit free agency) to fix their lack of a true CF. If Washington doesn't make the playoffs in the next year or two I will eat my hat.
Nats are going to be pretty good, but the question is if they can compete in a division filled with PHI, MIA, and ATL. The NL East is getting as good as it's AL counterpart and will no doubt be fun to watch in the fancave in 2012.
Philly is eventually going to decline because they just can't keep spending fucktons of money on a few players, and in the next couple of years they're going to decline while Washington/Atlanta/Florida peak. Of that group I think Atlanta has the highest ceiling if Heyward can get over his sophomore slump, Freeman keeps it up, and that pitching staff comes together. They need to lock up Bourn for cheap now. Potential lineup: Bourn / Prado / Freeman / Heyward / McCann / Uggla / who / ever / pitcher, with Hanson / Delgado / Jurrjens / Minor / Teheran as the rotation and Venters setting up for Kembrel. Yikes.
As good as their AL counterpart is too strong a statement when you've got 3 90 win teams in the AL, and that's without even considering how well maintained the farm systems are on the AL East.
Philly is going to go down in flames realllllllly sooon (2 years, 3). They've got a barren farm system due to all their trades in recent years. Miami has less present talent, and just as bad shape with the farm system.
Like Tennisace was saying, Atlanta is in the best shape mid long term with Washington pretty close by.. Washington's top heavy system will be SOOOO wonderful if everything works out.
Philly is going to go down in flames realllllllly sooon (2 years, 3). They've got a barren farm system due to all their trades in recent years. Miami has less present talent, and just as bad shape with the farm system.
Like Tennisace was saying, Atlanta is in the best shape mid long term with Washington pretty close by.. Washington's top heavy system will be SOOOO wonderful if everything works out.