Official Smogon University Simulator Statistics — February 2014

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This might seem like a dumb question but ....

in the UU standard, it shows that Jolteon is higher than Mega Blastiose, but in the one above, UU shows that the #1 is Blastiose. Am I missing something?
 
Just a question on metagame analysis, is it really neccesary to put weatherless as a play type? i mean now that the majority of people play weatherless wouldn't it be better to take out the catagory weatherless.
 
I apologize if its already there and I just missed it, but if not, would it be possible to get the moveset stats for the 1760 stats (at least for standard XY tiers)? I think it'd be interesting to see how the moveset choices of the top players compares to that of players in general.
 
So I am an idiot. The json file with checks/counters data I'm using includes a number that roughly translates to "number of matchups" for each encounter. So I can in fact weight the opponents success rate by how often the Pokemon face off, which should roughly correlate with usage.

Manaphy: 36.3336989138199
Pinsir: 36.8474989130286
Mawile: 38.2849441142385
Charizard: 39.4896187161858
Medicham: 39.7608601633473
Talonflame: 40.8688101890273
Volcarona: 40.9895222447822
Dragonite: 40.9941869735893
Heracross: 41.0927171097713
Kyurem-B: 41.2371636766526
Venusaur: 41.9446540447124
Azumarill: 42.1858471541338
Reuniclus: 42.2962369352467
Clefable: 42.5094238625005
Lucario: 42.5678917253235
Keldeo: 42.5782962838713
Kingdra: 42.6564342208516
Aegislash: 43.0230944174613
Breloom: 43.1459739376797
Crawdaunt: 43.2136397486015
Conkeldurr: 43.2346977106292
Bisharp: 43.265160482795
Garchomp: 43.3142672358962
Alakazam: 43.9607168609055
Cloyster: 44.1365350017699
Landorus: 44.617548481352
Salamence: 44.6767185178824
Greninja: 44.698614886321
Haxorus: 45.0579549821918
Porygon2: 45.2500803345331
Gengar: 45.491302373188
Latios: 45.7261030473652
Weavile: 45.7685117618645
Blastoise: 46.2132100483305
Ditto: 46.5396032919429
Thundurus: 46.563828668914
Arcanine: 46.7034681795925
Terrakion: 46.7300465256662
Togekiss: 46.8807421474165
Manectric: 46.9396904823408
Nidoking: 46.9506126316489
Staraptor: 47.2265292812864
Scizor: 47.284236345529
Umbreon: 47.3048666298856
Hydreigon: 47.3489852444054
Goodra: 47.4148132131472
Diggersby: 47.431788584296
Darmanitan: 47.4759992880197
Genesect: 47.5898140734363
Zapdos: 47.6788620989113
Thundurus-T: 47.8706169768917
Gastrodon: 48.0295285227587
Sylveon: 48.0329105878482
Absol: 48.2473494169931
Whimsicott: 48.3136254018349
Vaporeon: 48.5198042333703
Chansey: 48.7365649805661
Gliscor: 48.8011572311225
Infernape: 48.8845630634664
Gyarados: 48.8845630634664
Chandelure: 49.0046252566914
Starmie: 49.0133494043601
Metagross: 49.0610742377897
Sableye: 49.2627636202684
Mamoswine: 49.6309258531667
Noivern: 49.6502514956055
Slowbro: 49.7750063018682
Heatran: 49.8283743116582
Blissey: 49.9769914552827
Tyranitar: 50.1229727128602
Latias: 50.1274128863602
Excadrill: 50.2246279218631
Florges: 50.4433278567273
Celebi: 50.5706835955558
Trevenant: 50.7821408110111
Mandibuzz: 50.8462560401392
Jolteon: 50.9093045645253
Aggron: 50.929787304714
Swampert: 50.9955888237175
Jellicent: 51.2530540677408
Ferrothorn: 51.5861816065992
Jirachi: 52.0670693309206
Espeon: 52.3492825305464
Klefki: 52.6662944645956
Rotom-W: 52.8392009762953
Crobat: 52.9862681268835
Tentacruel: 53.3122653074004
Magnezone: 53.6513069442238
Landorus-T: 54.4471862426918
Skarmory: 54.6477141495406
Donphan: 55.2806792755072
Politoed: 55.7128147105084
Hippowdon: 55.9033661341496
Deoxys-S: 56.0219823156817
Galvantula: 60.8520760978658
Deoxys-D: 60.9428503484955
Scolipede: 62.2632791459224
Smeargle: 62.8692486579175
Forretress: 65.1660646793016
Gardevoir: 65.1660646793016

I've also included UU this month as well, cuz why not?

Suicune: 35.7152868069302
Zygarde: 37.3817007528978
Hawlucha: 38.6134620560713
Honchkrow: 38.628093881132
Malamar: 38.7854937556228
Sharpedo: 39.2500597685871
Reuniclus: 39.4749609287061
Medicham: 39.5429409315506
Shaymin: 39.9606874852353
Haxorus: 39.9619962778271
Keldeo: 40.9099084707307
Banette: 41.1406566946681
Crawdaunt: 41.144398207704
Cresselia: 41.1467852407319
Gardevoir: 41.1519847301612
Scrafty: 41.5014903584078
Clawitzer: 41.5014903584078
Kingdra: 41.7849109602793
Houndoom: 41.8216157937311
Yanmega: 42.2320862573628
Kyurem: 42.6474891730862
Heracross: 43.0388557523164
Toxicroak: 43.134941842491
Snorlax: 43.1653882066183
Hydreigon: 43.3187438641935
Entei: 43.3233305848379
Diggersby: 43.3437459868678
Weavile: 43.3706269376419
Porygon-Z: 43.4213118235688
Raikou: 43.5346189714263
Gallade: 43.7257824393028
Milotic: 43.7663120688269
Machamp: 44.0083077219097
Sceptile: 44.0352254675432
Porygon2: 44.1061249445528
Whimsicott: 44.1815528339595
Blastoise: 44.5182628851108
Doublade: 44.7318560280652
Chesnaught: 44.7360248907129
Absol: 45.1136231060015
Terrakion: 45.1200022207923
Celebi: 45.3091794451213
Victini: 45.3298927394863
Darmanitan: 45.5266324433403
Arcanine: 45.599150395425
Latias: 45.6369692233642
Amoonguss: 45.718806047565
Nidoking: 45.8071854390933
Ampharos: 45.83873881445
Gourgeist-S: 45.860244101765
Umbreon: 45.9998705682104
Roserade: 46.0764736328851
Metagross: 46.5132548948461
Exploud: 46.8304619895151
Vaporeon: 46.8735112023788
Quagsire: 46.8906013728353
Chandelure: 46.9612318704617
Florges: 46.9759959287086
Krookodile: 46.9883076549073
Zapdos: 47.0796400281408
Manectric: 47.4633449671383
Noivern: 47.4693815538109
Gastrodon: 47.6254526815549
Escavalier: 47.7802307630242
Electivire: 47.7882489247573
Aerodactyl: 47.8485641824038
Slowbro: 47.8761399613195
Chansey: 47.953900742406
Cinccino: 47.9670635185255
Ditto: 48.0679030123026
Mew: 48.5977588061211
Dusclops: 48.6847592470353
Cobalion: 48.797423443267
Jellicent: 49.0643055738221
Tangrowth: 49.2428803274814
Mienshao: 49.3681484106945
Jolteon: 49.3735367649525
Azelf: 49.4141930290943
Aggron: 49.5034558095887
Ampipom: 49.5247149745756
Crobat: 49.5968398832006
Magnezone: 49.6757042698733
Drapion: 49.6923720618385
Jirachi: 49.9859357539826
Scyther: 50.2705487359935
Cofagrigus: 50.5605176181921
Flygon: 50.8837833548696
Heliolisk: 50.8838443500271
Rotom-Heat: 51.3683693558228
Swampert: 51.4611996461938
Nidoqueen: 51.5101765151716
Tornadus-T: 52.2166929832469
Rhyperior: 52.2487106691463
Hitmontop: 52.468833654885
Empoleon: 52.7900129941748
Hippowdon: 54.0440676599499
Gligar: 55.7362977804479
Xatu: 57.9001421879906
Shuckle: 59.0651884808079
Leavanny: 59.9902546465456

Some things I noticed:
  • Numbers are much more centralized from the first draft, where Noctowl counted just as much as Tyranitar. They just seem better overall.
  • Maybe not the best place for this, but both lists suggest there are threats that the ladder seems to have a harder time dealing with (Medicham in OU, Honchkrow/Malamar in UU), but aren't viewed as highly by the community (B+ or lower Viability Rankings), so I'm wondering where that discrepancy comes from.
  • You might see several threats that recently received the ban-hammer on these lists (especially in UU), yet success rates against them, while good, aren't in the top tier. While the Megas like Lucario make sense due to their less effective base forms being used, others like Diggersby and Weavile in UU, don't have as obvious reasons. I wonder if the answer is as simple as the ladder not using them as efficiently as they could, or if there is any effect of being banned that drops the overall score.
Oh, and Antar, the "Encounter Matrix" could certainly be helpful. Just from looking at source code, it doesn't look too hard to change it so I can find the Pokemon's average success rate, rather than their opponent's which would be much easier to take in from an outside standpoint. I could also potentially incorporate the CRE type score instead of the raw data as well, since it doesn't look like the bias would be too different among top threats.
 
newtonja said:
Just a question on metagame analysis, is it really neccesary to put weatherless as a play type? i mean now that the majority of people play weatherless wouldn't it be better to take out the catagory weatherless.
Click to expand...

I think so, yes. Because you can't compute it by just subtracting off the number of weather teams, since there are dual-weather teams. And how much does it really hurt anything to list it?

Agent Gibbs said:
I apologize if its already there and I just missed it, but if not, would it be possible to get the moveset stats for the 1760 stats (at least for standard XY tiers)? I think it'd be interesting to see how the moveset choices of the top players compares to that of players in general.
Click to expand...

Moveset statistics are extremely costly to compute, so in order to gets the stats up in a timely fashion, I only ever do one. Also, IIRC, once upon a time I generated "1850" moveset stats, and they were basically identical. This was a while ago, though, so maybe things have changed.

In short: no, won't do it for this month.
 
Is there any way to get a list of Pokemon ordered by weight? As far as I know the only way to see a specific Pokemon's weight is to use !usage commands on IRC, which only work for individual Pokemon. Unless I'm missing something, if you wanted to find, say, the Pokemon with the highest weight in UU, you would have to go on IRC and do !usage for every single UU legal Pokemon, which would be very inconvenient.

Also, what do you think about including a "table of contents" of sorts in hide tags in the OP of stats threads that would have a link to the post for each category of stats (i.e. Mega Usage, Moveset Statistics, 1760 stats, etc)? As more and more categories are added, it gets more and more cumbersome to scroll down to some of the lower categories, particularly on mobile devices that do not have a scroll bar. This isn't really a big deal, but it would make viewing the stats a bit more convenient, especially on mobile devices.
 
Magnemite, I like the ToC idea! Next time I have a free minute, I'll add it to this thread's OP.

As for the average weight stuff, back when I first introduced weighted stats, people made a lot of fuss about average weight, and what was eventually determined is that it's kind of a worthless metric--just because a Pokemon is used a lot by lesser skilled players (who far outnumber what most people would consider "skilled" players) doesn't mean it's bad.
 
Magnemite said:
Is there any way to get a list of Pokemon ordered by weight? As far as I know the only way to see a specific Pokemon's weight is to use !usage commands on IRC, which only work for individual Pokemon. Unless I'm missing something, if you wanted to find, say, the Pokemon with the highest weight in UU, you would have to go on IRC and do !usage for every single UU legal Pokemon, which would be very inconvenient.
Click to expand...

hi

http://pokemon.basically.gg/weightstats.html
 
I may be misremembering, but it looks like there is a much bigger jump from normal stats to 1760 than there was on the old ladder from normal to 1850. I really like seeing this contrast. Anyway, it looks like charizard is moving up to fill lucarios shoes.
 
mac1275 said:
I may be misremembering, but it looks like there is a much bigger jump from normal stats to 1760 than there was on the old ladder from normal to 1850. I really like seeing this contrast. Anyway, it looks like charizard is moving up to fill lucarios shoes.
Click to expand...

actually if im not mistaken 1850 isn't really very difficult to get on the old ladder. 1760 here is somewhat harder and you're really only getting it once you've played a bunch of games in the meta
 
mac1275 and TM13IceBeam, 1850 was one standard deviation under the old system, 1760 is two under the new one. But in theory, your rating should converge to the same value no matter which system (it doesn't, but only because people most people on the ladder swap alts on a regular basis--keep in mind there's absolutely zero advantage to doing so these days). PS' implementation of Glicko2 was also demonstrably broken, so that screwed things up too. I'd suspect that for most ladders, 1850 was harder to get to than 1630 is now but easier to get to than 1760 is now. I decided to go for 1760 because it truly is "1337" (most people agree with me that 1630 wasn't "1337" enough.

One thing to quickly note, just so it's clear to everyone: 1850/1760/1630 all refer to your Glicko rating, not your Elo. Glicko is somewhat hidden--it only appears on the ladder and when you hit the /rating command--not when you battke.
 
Just to be sure, the 1760 stats are weighted as the old 1850 ones and not stats based only on people above that rating, right?
 
Antar said:
I think so, yes. Because you can't compute it by just subtracting off the number of weather teams, since there are dual-weather teams. And how much does it really hurt anything to list it?



Moveset statistics are extremely costly to compute, so in order to gets the stats up in a timely fashion, I only ever do one. Also, IIRC, once upon a time I generated "1850" moveset stats, and they were basically identical. This was a while ago, though, so maybe things have changed.

In short: no, won't do it for this month.
Click to expand...
I understand if it's too hard to do, but I suspect that 1760 Moveset stats really would be significantly different, given that the standard moveset stats have stuff like only 10% of Rotom-W being Physically Defensive and more Aegislash carrying Swords Dance than Shadow Ball.
EDIT: and Moonblast on 30% of Sylveon lol
 
TooMuchSugar said:
I understand if it's too hard to do, but I suspect that 1760 Moveset stats really would be significantly different, given that the standard moveset stats have stuff like only 10% of Rotom-W being Physically Defensive and more Aegislash carrying Swords Dance than Shadow Ball.
EDIT: and Moonblast on 30% of Sylveon lol
Click to expand...
I made the same comment either last month or the one before, citing Rotom-W's most common EV spread being Specially Defensive as my big example, and assuming that it exists since the Showdown-suggested spread for a Leftovers Rotom-W with Hydro/Volt/WillO/P-Split is 252HP/4SpA/252SpD+ (the very spread seen at #1), which 1337 1760s flat-out wouldn't use (unless they really hated Greninja?).
Edit: also, Assault Vest more common than Lefties on Tyranitar.
The purpose of us asking is that 1760 movesets would eliminate these...anomalies, and they would also give players who are trying to get better rather than stay average an even better tool with which to do so.
 
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All right, TooMuchSugar, Creative and Adam Lambert, you asked for it:

http://sim.smogon.com:8080/Stats/2014-02/moveset/ou-1760.0.txt

Note that specially defensive Rotom is still the most popular set and Assault Vest T-tar is only two percentage points below Leftovers T-Tar. I can't do miracles, here.

Edit: Okay, the issue with Rotom is that you just need to sum over the Bolds, since there are a few variations, and you end up with about 50% more physically defensive than specially defensive.
 
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Antar said:
All right, TooMuchSugar, Creative and Adam Lambert, you asked for it:

http://sim.smogon.com:8080/Stats/2014-02/moveset/ou-1760.0.txt

Note that specially defensive Rotom is still the most popular set and Assault Vest T-tar is only two percentage points below Leftovers T-Tar. I can't do miracles, here.

Edit: Okay, the issue with Rotom is that you just need to sum over the Bolds, since there are a few variations, and you end up with about 50% more physically defensive than specially defensive.
Click to expand...
Thanks for these! One of the biggest changes I'm seeing is much more consistent Teammates stats - standard moveset data generally has +4% max, but the 1760 data has really interesting stuff like +11% Venusaur for Heatran and +13% Rotom-W for Landorus-T. Apparently better players like cores more.
 
For some reason, I'm not able to view the link, either with my computer on my Wi-Fi or on my phone via mobile. Anyone else experiencing a similar problem?
 
1. Are you interested in (or have you attempted) fine-tuning your metrics used to determine the metagame analysis in non-standard tiers such as CAP or averagemons?

2. Is there an online list of what these metrics are, so we can see exactly how certain moves or abilities influence stall vs offense in one direction or the other?
 
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