Other ORAS Mega Speculation Thread (NO talk about potential bans NOR Aegislash)

[Sergeant Spooky]

Mega Swampert just doesn't have a niche because, indeed it is bulkier, but all defensive reasoning is thrown away on a rain team.

lol, I have no idea what makes you think Rain "throws away defensive reasoning," especially in the past few weeks where people have just been sticking Toed+[swimmer] along with four whatevers.

Rain will really appreciate a sweeper that bulky (BULKY AS MANDIBUZZ,) and it's not like it's all that weak: 6% difference from Kabutops, who's stupid strong in the first place. When your sweeper is too bulky to reliably revenge kill (0/0 takes max 88.5% from LO Latios Draco Meteor!) then it's a darned good sweeper if it still has the power to dish out some pain.

 

[Kurona]

Incidentally, what would make a good partner to Mega Swampert? Aside from other rain team members, you'd need something to reliable beat or at least wear down Ferro, Venu and Rotom-W while still functioning in or at least not being hindered by rain.

 

[Ash Borer]

lol, I have no idea what makes you think Rain "throws away defensive reasoning," especially in the past few weeks where people have just been sticking Toed+[swimmer] along with four whatevers.

Rain will really appreciate a sweeper that bulky (BULKY AS MANDIBUZZ,) and it's not like it's all that weak: 6% difference from Kabutops, who's stupid strong in the first place. When your sweeper is too bulky to reliably revenge kill (0/0 takes max 88.5% from LO Latios Draco Meteor!) then it's a darned good sweeper if it still has the power to dish out some pain.

yes, I think it's been waning for a while, but people still seem to have an idea that defensive stats or hp preservation on offensive Pokemon are not useful. The amount of comments that life orb x is better than mega x were extremely prevalent pre-XY. They've kinda gone away now thankfully..

Basically, Swampert's lack of Life Orb recoil and much better defensive qualities will make it way, way harder to kill. A stray scald, earthquake, or gyro ball from a defensively minded Pokemon will not phase swampert, whereas it more often than not ended Kabutop's life. The difference is hard to understate. Even if Swampert misses a 2HKO on something defensive, the question of "what the hell can that wall do back to it" now must be addressed.

 

[Karxrida]

Fuck you heatran

0 Atk Mega Latios Earthquake vs. 248 HP / 0 Def Heatran: 344-408 (89.3 - 105.9%) -- 31% chance to OHKO (guranteed after Stealth Rock)
0 Atk Life Orb Latios Earthquake vs. 248 HP / 0 Def Heatran: 328-390 (85.1 - 101.2%) -- 12.5% chance to OHKO (87.5% after Stealth Rock)
152 Atk Mega Latios Earthquake vs. 248 HP / 0 Def Heatran: 388-460 (100.7 - 119.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO
152 Atk Life Orb Latios Earthquake vs. 248 HP / 0 Def Heatran: 385-458 (100 - 118.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO

Fuck you indeed. 4 Attacks mixed will probably be good since Mega Latios outdamages LO Latios on the physical side and is only slightly weaker on the special side.

252 SpA Mega Latios Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 104+ SpD Mew: 204-240 (50.4 - 59.4%) -- 80.1% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
252 SpA Life Orb Latios Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 104+ SpD Mew: 227-269 (56.1 - 66.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery

 

[Celticpride]

Personally, I don't think Mega Swampert is much of a threat. Consider this calc:

252+ Atk Life Orb Kabutops Waterfall vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 146-173 (32.8 - 38.9%) -- 99.6% chance to 3HKO
252+ Atk Mega Swampert Waterfall vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 136-162 (30.6 - 36.4%) -- 58.2% chance to 3HKO

In terms of raw power, Kabutops is better. TBH using Mega Swampert on rain is a waste of a mega that could be better spent on something like Mega Pinsir or another threatening mon. Mega Swampert just doesn't have a niche because, indeed it is bulkier, but all defensive reasoning is thrown away on a rain team.

%Srn: UBERPYRO rain is best offensively
%Srn: you throw out all defensive reasoning
%Srn: and you just break teams apart

So, Mega Swampert isn't really something to look out for. Normal rain sweepers like Kabutops and Kingdra fulfill this roll more effectively and without occupying the mega slot.

At worst, Mega Swampert is a way improved version of Seismitoad. It's a Swift Swimmer that isn't neutered by Thundurus TWave, has impressive bulk, doesn't worry about Electric at all, and it really doesn't suffer from any different shortcomings his SS rain brethren don't also suffer from. It's not like Rain Teams use a certain Mega all the time either, the only ones I've seen on Rain are Mega Amphy, Mega Scizor, Mega Mawile, and rarely Mega Blastoise.

Small nostalgia moment: Mega Mawile was really broken and strong on it's own, but that thing on a Rain team was really pushing it to another level. MMawile rain teams were criminally underrated.

 

[Rechi]

So with all this talk about which new megas will make it to OU, what are some of the old megas do you guys think will move down?

For starters, I can easily see Mega Medicham dropping for these reasons:

-Mega Slowbro and Mega Sableye are flat out counters. Thunder Punch is only a 3HKO on Slowbro even after rocks and Sableye is immune to both of its STABs and Fake Out, doesn't give a fuck about the elemental punches, and has WoW.
-Mega Salamence destroys it, obviously.
-It's facing some serious competition from Mega Gallade who's faster, bulkier, and more versatile.
-Nearly all of the ORAS megas are fast as fuck which means that it's offensively checked by most of them. Even the ones with middling speed like Swampert and Altaria can easily beat it under Rain/after a DDance.

 

[G-Von]

I see a lot of people praising Mega Swampert for its insane bulk and Speed with SS, but I think it is being over-hyped quite significantly. I am not questioning the power of rain-boosted Waterfalls and STAB EQ's, but there are two major things that hurt Mega Swampart. First off, it has no reliable recovery. This hurts its bulk quite a bit since it will not be able to continuously come in on attacks and shrug them off, especially with all this priority flying around (no pun intended). However, what really puts a dent into M-Swampert is the fact it does not have access to the moves Swords Dance or Bulk Up (this thing looks like it took twelve cycles of steroids, yet Bulk Up wasn't a move Game Freak felt it deserved...). PuP isn't a bad move but only +1 Attack doesn't turn any 2HKO's into OHKO's that I know of. If Swampert could learn either move, it would easily be a top-tier threat that teams would have to prepare for. As things stand, Mega Swampert has the potential to be a decent sweeper, but will have to choose, after its STAB's, between Rain Dance, PuP, Superpower, Ice Punch, Low Kick, Stealth Rock, and possibly a couple special moves. Not only all this, but Mega Gyarados and Mega Sharpedo give Mega Swampert competition as a Mega rain sweeper. Gyarados didn't get trolled and received Crunch and Mega Sharpedo has stronger coverage moves and both of these mons have ways to increase their speed for the entirety of their time on the field.

 

[Toljik]

I'm trying to think of a good answer to Mega CroBro.

Encore? A crappy Taunt/Dragon Dance/Substitute/Crunch Mega Gyarados? Nasty Plot Thundurus?

 

[MANNAT]

Sorry if someone already said this, but I want to share my opinions on two Pokemon that got megas that i feel like are being overlooked.

I am really happy that Camerupt and Sceptile, which are some of my favorite pokemon, are getting megas. Sceptile is basically the best rotom wash counter that there is. Sheer force gives basically every one of Camerupt's special STAB moves a huge leap in power as well as many of his coverage moves, so that will be very good for him.

If I had to guess right now, I would put Mega-Sept as a low to mid-tier OU. The only reason why Sceptile isn't poking into top-tier OU is because of the prevalence of fly spam in OU right now. Also, Mega-Sceptile gains a fairy and dragon weakness as well as a 4x weakness to ice. However, I think most of Mega Sceptile's benefits outweigh its disadvantages.

I would put Camerupt around the same range because of SF and the stat buffs, but it would be leaning towards a lower rank as opposed to a higher rank because of its middling speed and weaknesses to common attacking types.

 

[alexwolf]

I'm trying to think of a good answer to Mega CroBro.

Encore? A crappy Taunt/Dragon Dance/Substitute/Crunch Mega Gyarados? Nasty Plot Thundurus?

You don't need Taunt on Mega Gyarados, just Substitute. Dual STABs, Dragon Dance, and Substitute should do the trick. For more checks and counters, check this post.

 

[Rosen]

I would put mega scept no lower than B/B+. This thing will be more of a nightmare for offense than mega manectric, with greater speed, power, and coverage. Srsly how much shit can you think that can outspeed and OHKO shit like latios, heatran, and rotom-w (and a metric fuckton more) all without taking any prior damage? And holy fuck it can't be paralyzed either, eat shit thundurus. I see a lot of niggas really underestimating mega gecko

 

[MrCookiepants]

This may have been said already (i'm way too fucking lazy to read 32 pages z_z) but there is one important distinction between cromegabro and crocune: typing.
A psychic typing, while it does give you some nice resistances, isn't really too helpful as it makes you weak to dark, ghost, and bug. Yeah its resistances are kool but that's only really nice when you have partners to cover up your weaknesses and in turn benefit from your resistances (see: heatran, mandibuzz, etc)
However, a "cro" set is more of a stand alone mon. It will, ultimately, take any hit the opposing team has to offer, restalk it all away, and slowly boost up until scald destroys everything. This is where the psychic typing becomes a hindrance: it gives you weaknesses that makes it easier for the opposing team to overwhelm you and thus stop your sweep.
This is where suicune by FAR holds the advantage. Physical grass and electric moves are uncommon, and those two moves as attacking types are rather uncommon themselves. Insane bulk means it can take plenty of hits even from offensive teams, and after 2 calm minds not many special attacks, electric or grass, is really gonna be denting suicune too much. Slowbro has quite a bit more to be worried about however, like knock off's from LO bisharp or shadow balls' from LO gengar or bandzor u-turns/offensive mzor bug bites.
Not only that but its better off sticking to restalk since status just kinda screws it if it runs slack off :/

252+ Atk Life Orb Bisharp Knock Off vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Mega Slowbro: 140-166 (35.5 - 42.1%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
0 SpA Mega Slowbro Fire Blast vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Bisharp: 266-314 (97.7 - 115.4%) -- 87.5% chance to OHKO

252+ Atk Choice Band Scizor U-turn vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Mega Slowbro: 176-210 (44.6 - 53.2%) -- 28.1% chance to 2HKO
0 SpA Mega Slowbro Fire Blast vs. 248 HP / 8 SpD Scizor: 476-560 (138.7 - 163.2%) -- guaranteed OHKO

lol

Scizor and Bisharp die to uninvested Fire Blast. Gengar is OHKO'd by Psyshock. When the best offensive answers to Mega Slowbro lose to it 1 on 1...

 

[I AM THE JAMAICAN BOBSLED TEAM]

use refreshmence to beat crobro, refresh/dd/return/roost

if all else fails you can always use jumpmence

 

[ShadesOfSolomon]

So with all this talk about which new megas will make it to OU, what are some of the old megas do you guys think will move down?

For starters, I can easily see Mega Medicham dropping for these reasons:

-Mega Slowbro and Mega Sableye are flat out counters. Thunder Punch is only a 3HKO on Slowbro even after rocks and Sableye is immune to both of its STABs and Fake Out, doesn't give a fuck about the elemental punches, and has WoW.
-Mega Salamence destroys it, obviously.
-It's facing some serious competition from Mega Gallade who's faster, bulkier, and more versatile.
-Nearly all of the ORAS megas are fast as fuck which means that it's offensively checked by most of them. Even the ones with middling speed like Swampert and Altaria can easily beat it under Rain/after a DDance.

I think a lot of this depends what happens with the current banlist as well. It's enough of a metagame shift that the question needs to be asked: do we act like it's essentially a new generation, unban everything not obviously broken, and work from there? Aegislash returning would already hurt M-Medicham's usage.

252+ Atk Life Orb Bisharp Knock Off vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Mega Slowbro: 140-166 (35.5 - 42.1%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
0 SpA Mega Slowbro Fire Blast vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Bisharp: 266-314 (97.7 - 115.4%) -- 87.5% chance to OHKO

252+ Atk Choice Band Scizor U-turn vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Mega Slowbro: 176-210 (44.6 - 53.2%) -- 28.1% chance to 2HKO
0 SpA Mega Slowbro Fire Blast vs. 248 HP / 8 SpD Scizor: 476-560 (138.7 - 163.2%) -- guaranteed OHKO

lol

Scizor and Bisharp die to uninvested Fire Blast. Gengar is OHKO'd by Psyshock. When the best offensive answers to Mega Slowbro lose to it 1 on 1...

252+ Atk Life Orb Technician Breloom Bullet Seed (4 hits) vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Slowbro: 344-404 (87.3 - 102.5%) -- approx. 93.8% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock

There's your best offensive answer. Ice Beam/ FB OHKOs back, but Loom can come in on anything else and immediately threaten Megabro out.

 

[Sgt. Stardust]

So with all this talk about which new megas will make it to OU, what are some of the old megas do you guys think will move down?

All the megas are going to go down until Mence gets banned because its better than all of them

Seriously though I can see Zard X being less popular as more people opt for Mega Altaria as a defensive dragon/bulky dder. I'm not saying Altaria is definitely better than Zard or even that they play the exact same roles but Altaria is definitely going to take mega slots away from Zard X.

Edit: I was assuming Altaria got T-Wave for some reason. Still think my argument holds but probably less so now

Edit #2: Pixelate Body Slam tho

 

[Ajwf]

Well obviously all mega usage will drop to some degree.

Altaria doesn't really counter ZardX. Altaria gets 2hko'd after rocks and a dragon dance by ZardX, so it really isn't exactly a perfect godsend as a defensive ZardX counter. As for stealing his role? I think you forget how good that fire/dragon coverage is... Base 100 speed to not speed tie Mamoswine and be outsped by Excadrill is nice, too.

 

[ShadesOfSolomon]

All the megas are going to go down until Mence gets banned because its better than all of them

Seriously though I can see Zard X being less popular as more people opt for Mega Altaria as a defensive dragon/bulky dder. I'm not saying Altaria is definitely better than Zard or even that they play the exact same roles but Altaria is definitely going to take mega slots away from Zard X.

Edit: I was assuming Altaria got T-Wave for some reason. Still think my argument holds but probably less so now

It gets Pixilate Body Slam instead, as well as Sing.

 

[Sergeant Spooky]

Well obviously all mega usage will drop to some degree.

Altaria doesn't really counter ZardX. Altaria gets 2hko'd after rocks and a dragon dance by ZardX, so it really isn't exactly a perfect godsend as a defensive ZardX counter. As for stealing his role? I think you forget how good that fire/dragon coverage is... Base 100 speed to not speed tie Mamoswine and be outsped by Excadrill is nice, too.

Altaria OHKOs with Draco Meteor.

 

[ShadesOfSolomon]

Well obviously all mega usage will drop to some degree.

Altaria doesn't really counter ZardX. Altaria gets 2hko'd after rocks and a dragon dance by ZardX, so it really isn't exactly a perfect godsend as a defensive ZardX counter. As for stealing his role? I think you forget how good that fire/dragon coverage is... Base 100 speed to not speed tie Mamoswine and be outsped by Excadrill is nice, too.

+1 252+ Atk Tough Claws Mega Charizard X Flare Blitz vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Altaria: 144-171 (40.6 - 48.3%) -- 68% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock

Defensive M-Altaria can come in on DD and proceed to roost off the damage while Zard-X chips away at its own HP with FB. Or it can, you know, just straight up OHKO in return with Draco Meteor.

EDIT: Ninja'd.

 

[Maple Syrup]

Does nobody realize that Mega Heracross and Beedrill wound it so heavily and Mhera has a ~50% chance to KO after SR. CB Scizor also hits it for so much damage.

Greninja also has a reason to run GK as it will 2hko it a +1 spdef if it has come in on Stealth Rocks.

252 SpA Life Orb Greninja Grass Knot (80 BP) vs. +1 252 HP / 252 SpD Slowbro: 174-211 (44.1 - 53.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock

Aegislash could serve as an excellent check as Shadow Ball will also to a heft chunk at +1 spdef. I think dropping Aegi down would help the meta. However Aegi + Crobro makes a premiere bulky offensive/stall core.

Anything with taunt could stop it from setting up. Heck stallbreaker mew deals with with.
+1 0 SpA Slowbro Scald vs. 252 HP / 104+ SpD Mew: 133-157 (32.9 - 38.8%) -- 5.5% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery

Tbh anything with a poweful SE hit before it sets up to like +3-6 can deal with it. Tho 130 atk will be scaryy. Can't wait to use it on a trick room team :]]

 

[Ajwf]

Altaria OHKOs with Draco Meteor.

Is it really going to afford Dragon AND fairy stab on the same set? I mean, that seems a tad redundant as both get walled off by steels. Sure, one gets poisons and the other gets past fairies but it seems like the coverage overlap is a bit much to justify using both. In general, fairy is a better stab, having three resists (steel/poison/fire) and three SEs (Fight/Dark/Dragon). Dragon has one resist, one immune (steel/fairy respectively) and one SE (Dragon). The coverage overlap + Pixilate's boost seems to lend itself that Altaria would much prefer just to run fairy moves.

 

[ShadesOfSolomon]

Does nobody realize that Mega Heracross and Beedrill wound it so heavily and Mhera has a ~50% chance to KO after SR. CB Scizor also hits it for so much damage.

Greninja also has a reason to run GK as it will 2hko it a +1 spdef if it has come in on Stealth Rocks.

252 SpA Life Orb Greninja Grass Knot (80 BP) vs. +1 252 HP / 252 SpD Slowbro: 174-211 (44.1 - 53.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock

Aegislash could serve as an excellent check as Shadow Ball will also to a heft chunk at +1 spdef. I think dropping Aegi down would help the meta. However Aegi + Crobro makes a premiere bulky offensive/stall core.

Anything with taunt could stop it from setting up. Heck stallbreaker mew deals with with.
+1 0 SpA Slowbro Scald vs. 252 HP / 104+ SpD Mew: 133-157 (32.9 - 38.8%) -- 5.5% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery

Tbh anything with a poweful SE hit before it sets up to like +3-6 can deal with it. Tho 130 atk will be scaryy. Can't wait to use it on a trick room team :]]

Taunt Mega-Sableye does the same.
+1 0 SpA Slowbro Scald vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Sableye: 106-126 (34.8 - 41.4%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery

 

[Sgt. Stardust]

Well obviously all mega usage will drop to some degree.

Altaria doesn't really counter ZardX. Altaria gets 2hko'd after rocks and a dragon dance by ZardX, so it really isn't exactly a perfect godsend as a defensive ZardX counter. As for stealing his role? I think you forget how good that fire/dragon coverage is... Base 100 speed to not speed tie Mamoswine and be outsped by Excadrill is nice, too.

I wasn't saying it countered it I'd saying Zard X would become less useful because Altaria is at least as good if not better and you can't run both.

 

[Sergeant Spooky]

Is it really going to afford Dragon AND fairy stab on the same set?

I don't know, is it really worth it to be able to reliably beat X-zard? It CAN counter X-zard... you just need to run Draco Meteor.

If you're using it in a defensive fashion anyway, it's not like coverage is of the greatest concern. I know Fairy/Dragon is redundant, but they're both high powered BP moves that are only resisted by steel and Fire Blast would hit most of them hard (if you don't want to run a support move alongside Roost.)

Anyway I can see a lot of megas dropping in usage, merely because of how megas work; they're all competing for the team slot, of course.

 

[Sgt. Stardust]

Anyway I can see a lot of megas dropping in usage, merely because of how megas work; they're all competing for the team slot, of course.

Yeah but theres a difference between something dropping because of a general increase in competition for a mega slot and the introduction of a mega that is very similar to it. I mean of GF released a Mega Charizard Z that was just a copy of Zard X with a buff in some stats Zard X's viability and usage would plummet. It's not just about how good something is in the meta its about what you have to give up to use it.