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NOC Paranoia Mafia Game Over - Mafia Wins

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This makes me lean townier on rssp, unless he's in a scumteam with Asek I can't see him casually clearing three people especially when one has had a lot of controversy about them and one has had some question marks, especially when it corresponds to my own reads.

Which leads to the following questions:

- What does town!rssp mean about the rest of the player pool?
- What does a rssp/asek/?? scum team look like?

Not sure about the second question, that would need some serious isos and thought, wrt the first question I'd reckon it makes Walrein look a bit worse, doesn't really affect twin, makes om room look slightly worse (personal bias?), and keeps aubisio/former unchanged as looking badly to me
wtf is this
 
I think I figured out what Josh meant when he said "you guys are looking at this game all wrong"

One of rssp1, walrein, and twin are scum. A second might be scum. All three are definitely not scum.

Reason being: they are all almost universally townread.

Here's the rub in the game's mechanics: scum have no motivation to do anything other than act like a perfect town. They don't need to keep each other alive. They don't need to create misdirection. They don't need to lead mislynches. The only thing they need to do to win is to avoid suspicion being on them. Once the game hits a certain number of people remaining as long as any scum is alive they win. Guaranteed at least one of them is the sheep in wolf's clothing, possibly two, while the last scum takes on a more active, dissident voice.

Unvote Lynch rssp1
Texas sudden flips on rssp1 is extremely weird to me
 
I was going to link you to the Hedging page on the MafiaScum Wiki but the site appears to be down at the moment.

Basically it's when people are wishy-washy and qualify all of their reads.

"But on the other hand", "I may be wrong", "Does anyone else think", etc.

Minor statements that make you seem less responsible for your reads. If you can sneak them by, they're an excellent tool in the scum arsenal.

But on the other hand, some people are simply wishy-washy by nature. It's not a guaranteed scum tell. From what I've gathered, Former Hope is one of these people. I may be wrong, but that is my interpretation. Does anyone else think it's NAI?
IMO in regarding to FH about this is that he isn't a naturally wishy-washy player because in basic(where he was town) he gave up on defending himself and just told people to not lynch whydon and that josh+pancake were certain scum together
 
Tbh, it's just related to how I see things. If I'm sure of something I'll use that sort of definite language. If not, I'll use more "wishy washy" language because I realize that I may be wrong and thus am open to change my view. Simple as that and tbh, it tends to come out more as town for me, not that anyone had seen my scum game
 
Vote Count 4.1

Former Hope (2): Texas Cloverleaf, Hawkie
OM Room (2): rssp1, thetwinmasters
Texas Cloverleaf (1): Aubisio
Aubisio (1): Asek
Not Voting (3): Former Hope, Borath The Oscillator, OM Room

Votes on Walrein and Walrein votes were removed after the subbing.

9 Alive.
 
Lol how am I flip flopping. "One of these people is probably scum, maybe two, not sure which."

"This guy looks townier to me"

????

Also lol at sudden, two separate irl days
 
ill be posting later tonight after i finish my homework
or I wont and ill just post tomorrow morning
I do hate posting in the morning though so the post will likely happen late tonight
I dont really know what's left to talk about but literally everyone being dead sucks
twin looks town for attempting to start discussion instead of sittling idly by while borath is looking through everything
im probably not going to have much else to say but w/e
 
Being subbed out does pretty much confirm legit time constraints and not just intentional so my suspicions are reduced. Also tbh I liked walreins response to my accusations. So I'm reading more as town than I did at start of day.
 
So it just occurred to me that the dates I'm reading here are from a week ago.

I had assumed the game was still on Day 2 since the host only has the first lynch and the first kill in the opening post.

I am now assuming this is incorrect.

Who died and what have they flipped?
 
what was that about it being paranoia mafia and scum not existing and everything else???

Lynch Former Hope

WEAK.

lol what the heck, i told you guys pancake was town >_>

This post is disgusting. You're lucky you subbed out so I could show you how it's done.

Extend Deadline
Hawkie's instant tunnel on FH worries me a lot especially for not that great reasoning
Vote Hawkie

I'm going to townread Thetwinmasters from this point forward.

If you don't know why I probably won't tell you. You're just going to have to accept this and move on.

Well it's true, mafia targets whoevers the towniest a lot of the time. Although if blazade lived I intended to lynch him because he was the towniest by far.

Right now I'm set on walrein, twin, and flyhn. I'm confident at least one of them is scum

9GA9g.gif


What kind of bizarro hellscape have I recklessly ventured into?

Awww, blazade :( will post more when I'm home in about 2 hours

I will always be wary of people who lament over Night actions.

I will always find your lamentations to be mired in falsehoods.

So just...lmao. Both you and Haruno don't seem to understand how this game works. The question town has to keep asking every new day is, "are there more mafia?". This includes the first day when the host explicitly goes out of their way to say there might not be any scum at all. However, because town is designed to know absolutely nothing about mafia, the more mafia does things the better off we are.

For instance, we now know there's at least one mafia who used one of their potentially limitless (or limited) kills. What that means is that we know for certain that we should lynch someone. But then the question comes up, was there only one? In fact, I would predict that after we get the first mafia (if we do...) then the second one will probably not kill. Which leads to the troubling situation that if we kill the first and there is a second one that doesn't kill, town has no way of knowing if there truly is a second terrorist, or if there was only one terrorist and town screws themselves over by continuing to lynch an all town village.

Let's talk about this post. Pull up a chair by the hearth.

First of all, I think the tone here is town. That surprised me, but that isn't why I quoted it. I quoted it for its content, which is... less than ideal.

I think it's absurd to believe, assume, or speculate that there are zero scum. We know now that there aren't, but even speculating on the possibility in the first place is lunacy. The host has mentioned the careful selection of roles, which means they're either a lying son of a bitch or there are scum. Easy.

Additionally, there is nothing to gain from this line of thinking. There is no world where we all agree to vote to end the game without scum flips. That is not something anyone would be willing to do. So in a world with zero scum, we lose 100% of the time so we shouldn't bother with this world. The same applies to a world with even one halfway decent scum but I digress.

Now let's talk about the second half of your post, the bulky bit.

Please allow me to slap you.

*wet slapping noise*

DON'T TALK ABOUT OPTIMAL SCUM PLAY IN THE THREAD YOU DOLT!

Jesus Christ. Yes, you are correct. In a two scum world, that is something they can do to potentially secure victory. It's one of many strategies available in this setup. But don't tell them that. If they hadn't already come up with this strategy, you've given it to them now. Fine work. This is why people frown upon mechanics talk.

Protip: This would have been an excellent point to bring up after we had killed a member of the scum team and no kill had occurred the following Night. Timing is critical.

This post doesn't even particularly sway me on my read of you, but the reckless mechanics talk made me feel unclean to a point that I had to address it.

I think right now the likelyhood of a person being scum on the pancake vote is Texas>Hawkie>rssp1
FH push by 2 suspects of mine makes me think he could be getting turbo lynched by a mafia
I'm pretty sure a blazade kill doesn't make FH more towny/less scummy unless I'm missing a big connection there

You know what I want to hear more from haruno
Unvote Lynch Haruno

Did you get whiplash from that?

Alright that's understandable

I think Blazade just got killed because he was by far the towniest player. I doubt there were any major motivations to frame someone/kill him because he suspected a scum (although he may have suspected scum).

Optimal play for no kills is to no lynch continuously yes

unless terrorists have a "you win by phase x" condition
....fuck

Yes, it is the counterplay.

And no, they don't have a "win by phase x" condition because it is not specified in the rules, and it would make the scum even stronger which would make me physically ill.
'
#PostsFromTheBreakRoom

Twin, can you go more into depth on why you think one of the pancake voters has to be scum? I understand the logic behind why that would commonly be the case but I'm not sure it follows on such a split vote and looking at the people who voted pancake I don't think I'm confident in any of them being scum. Rssp1s most recent post has a lot of really good logic that I like and reads that make a lot of logical, town oriented sense, which makes me think he's town and hawkie has yet to give me cause to scumread which suggests to me that the mafia let the town shoot themselves in the foot and stayed back.

Papa Borath Teachings Lesson 1: Wagonomics

'Hoy there small fries! Let's all learn about something exciting! It's called "wagonomics"! My, that's a big word! Can you say "wagonomics"?

...

Good! Now for today's lesson we'll examine a Day 1 lynch. Day 1 lynches are the hardest to perform wagonomics on, since the least amount of information is available. Here's what the wagon looks like:

pancake (3): rssp1, Texas Cloverleaf, Hawkie
Former Hope (2): Dentricos, Josh
Texas Cloverleaf (2): Walrein, thetwinmasters
Blazade (1): pancake
Josh (1): Haruno
Not voting: OM Room/Beta, Aubisio, Blazade(voted Beta), FH(voted Beta), Flyhn(Voted Haruno)

It's easy to reach the conclusion that one of the three voters on pancake is scum. After all, pancake was town! But look closely.

Notice how Blazade, who is also town, was being voted on by pancake. A townie voting another townie? Unbelievable! But it happens all the time. Townies are wrong more often than scum, actually. This is why you have to examine things a little differently. Instead of assuming that scum are voting for townies, ask why they would bother. After all, isn't it optimal to just never vote for townies? That way you avoid suspicion.

But if you or your partner is on the chopping block, there is a very good reason to vote a townie. So let's put forth the following scenario:

One of Former Hope or Texas Cloverleaf is scum. This leads to two potential voting patterns:

pancake (3): rssp1, Texas Cloverleaf, Hawkie
Former Hope (2): Dentricos, Josh
Texas Cloverleaf (2): Walrein, thetwinmasters
Blazade (1): pancake
Josh (1): Haruno
Not voting: OM Room/Beta, Aubisio, Blazade(voted Beta), FH(voted Beta), Flyhn(Voted Haruno)

pancake (3): rssp1, Texas Cloverleaf, Hawkie
Former Hope (2): Dentricos, Josh
Texas Cloverleaf (2): Walrein, thetwinmasters
Blazade (1): pancake
Josh (1): Haruno
Not voting: OM Room/Beta, Aubisio, Blazade(voted Beta), FH(voted Beta), Flyhn(Voted Haruno)

As you can see, the overlap incriminates Texas more than Fisherman's Horizon. However, townies will also vote to save themselves, since why risk losing someone who is 100% cleared to you in exchange for someone who isn't?

This does tell us a few things though.

1) Hawkie and Former Hope are never scum together. This is clear from their interactions, but the attempt to kill Fun-loving Hemorrhoid at EOD locks it in. Yes, bussing is a thing, but that isn't how busses go. I don't respect any of you enough to believe these two are capable of pulling off this long con.

B) Based on wagonomics alone, Tex has a slightly higher chance of being scum than Friendly Hydra, but a case shouldn't be built on this. Feel free to use it to support a case, but it isn't case making material on its own.

III) If Fallen Hombre and Tex are both town, this entire wagonomics study is useless, since scum have as much incentive to hop on each wagon.

Four) If Tex is scum, it can be inferred that thetwinmasters are lock town.

All in all, not much information to speak of. By examining how the wagons formed and other such things we can glean more, but I'm not crazy enough to do that yet. Still, for Day 1 it's not a bad set to look at.

However.

Those not voting at EOD are not helping wagonomics along. Always have a vote by EOD or you're not doing your part. Play the game or get the fuck out in my opinion. Being off wagon is poor play as town, and I'd bet most off wagoners here are town.

Unlynch Flyhn, Lynch Aubisio

Aubisio
I've seen no effort from you to get active :/ I assume that you took being scumread early from your posts as a reason to stay quiet so people wont focus on you.

If your town I don't want you to think like that. I would like to hear your reads. Not talking helps scum control the game.

It comes off as kind of scummy that you are not lynching or talking because it seems like you are encouraging other people to have conflicts while you hide.

Dramatic-Clapping-Crying-Meme-Face-Of-Citizen-Kane.gif


Ok, I have a question.

Why the hell are we lynching former hope for theorizing that they aren't any terrorists?

I mean unless you guys really think that it's a slip of some sort; otherwise I don't buy it. Honestly, Former seems kind of townish imo. I'm trying to find scum reads but I need to read through all of day 1 first.

rssp1 was originally a scumread but then I realized I was being stupid and that he's helpful asf. Hawkers stop tunneling like you usually do pls. uhhh otherwise, Josh want to give a nice and succinct post on why walrein is scum, because lynching of off gut read is bad for town.

uhhh, otherwise you can go back to lynching me Thetwinmasters

Ok so here's the deal.

The part of this post referring to Franklin Humberdale's wagon is fine, yeah? OM room grasps that, starting Day 2, the reasons to vote FH turned shittier. Given their comment on not having read Day 1, that is totally understandable.

However in italics.

I don't like how this is the only thing they can come up with, and how sheepy it is.

IGMESOY

Everything walrein has done seemed scummy. It was blazade that got me to look at them but their behaviour is very suspicious. Grtting some shitty discussion going while replying to things early then idling once we have scum reads to focus discussion on and dropping off the radar. Not really contributing much to discussion . General gut read is a big thing too and blazade, a townie, having the same read is influencing that.

This post is actual an excellent segue for me to express the fact that I've only skimmed Walrein's posts.

Partially because I know their alignment already so no need to analyze, partially because I don't want to be constrained by their reads, and partially because I just don't care what they had to say.

I think the bolded is an unjust accusation, however. Post seems a bit hedgy overall as well.

vote daylight extension

i don't really have concrete on anything but i think it's pretty unlikely that one of the people on pancake were not scum

i don't really find hawkie tunnelling weird, he always does that on PS

rssp1 is pretty helpful so i think texas might also be scum

This being your first post of the day (I believe) and at that a sheepy, noncommittal stance after 2 posts in a row about Tex being possible scum is NOTED.

Just checking to say i'm working on a pretty big post that should be done at some point tommorow

Just quoted this to see if you actually followed through or if you blew it off.

Aubisio is screaming scum at me

Yeah, it's obvious you're scumreading him pretty hard, what with that whole "not voting for him" thing.

well it was mostly because of his theory, but also because I just found him scummy in general. (maybe that's just me)


I did a little iso tho and found it was significantly less scummy though

So I don't really know.

All of my .gifs of people throwing up are too foul for you folks' delicate constitutions so I won't post them.

But imagine me posting them all right now.

----------------------------------------------------------

Nothing specific to quote here, but quite a few folk seemed to be scumreading Walrein around this point but not voting him.

That's called throwing shade and I'm not a fan.

----------------------------------------------------------

IT IS AT THIS POINT I FOUND WHERE THE FLIPS WERE.

SO THAT'S A THING THAT HAPPENED.


----------------------------------------------------------

I think I want to lynch walrein tomorrow regardless of today's outcome


I blame Overwatch for my absence yesterday

Catching up

Nice to see you didn't follow through on your promise, didn't participate in the game, and still insist on making useless posts reminding us you're playing.

And now Texas is doing the work I was gonna do (ISOing many people at once.. except difference is they're doing literally everyone)

RIP Massive post. This is what I get for being easily addicted to games. I just wasted my entire free weekend -_-

Sub me. I don't trust myself enough to stay active (probably gonna waste more time with Overwatch after this, then weekdays are scholl), and I don't have the energy to do this like I originally thought I did. Sorry ;-;

Remind me only to do NOC in the summer from now on

I was this close to breaking my promise and whipping out those vomit .gifs.

This close.

Former Hope: Early game set up spec, tries to push out of RVS at #30 which Walrein has claimed is towny. More set up spec, pushes Hawkie at #58. Reiterates Hawkie at #98, is the first to mention the possibility of a Walrein mole while town reading blazade and possibly twin. Yet more set up spec, then brings up an excellent point at #164 that Haruno is flip-flopping on his reasoning and looking for an excuse to vote FH, a common theme in Haruno's behaviour. NAI for FH though. Pushes inactivity lynches until #278 where he posts some meta reasoning on terrorists behaviour and a critique of Hawkie's play which I personally quite liked at the time, I though it was very pro-town reasoning so this leans towny for me. #286 is along similar lines and uses reasoning similar to my own about probability and states of mind where x is more likely to occur. Interestingly, hasn't posted any specific reads of players to this point except for targeting Hawkie over his interactions with Aubisio. Votes beta at #326 in a continuation of his theme of targeting idlers.

Point of note here at #359, Former never jumps on the pancake wagon but comes out to say he doesn't mind it. Food for thought for those thinking a pancake wagoner has to be scum.

More set up spec at #433 and concern over Walreins lack of posting at #436. Then posts... nothing of consequence until #585 and 588. Odd. Buddies twin's iso of me and scum reads without any concrete reads of his own and tries to protect himself by saying that blazade thought that him vs haruno was tvt. This smells super fishy to me, like he's trying to use blazade's town cred to protect himself and haruno while also keeping his distance from Haruno a bit.

Conclusion: I smell a rat. Former has spent approximately 70% of his posts talking about what mafia would do with their kills and who we should deal with voting strategies. He has not generated any content or reads of his own, he's buddied people the whole way, and he's generally tried to appear active without contributing. His only significant conflict is with haruno which he then later reinforces unprompted which, considering I think haruno is scum, looks like it's extremely likely to be an attempt to distance themselves from each other. His only real pressures have been on inactives which is as safe as safe gets as well as linking Walrein to DLE in order to spread scum confusion over him. The more I think over these posts the worse they look and the more suspicious they get. Strong scum lean.

If all your posts were as strong as this one you'd have been killed by now.

Fine work.

Really awesome how wall posts and insulting other users makes people appear on smogon zzzzzzzzz

I get the sentiment. I do. I'm not going to lie and say that Tex's righteous indignation didn't strike me as towny. I'm not going to pretend his effortposts haven't made me look at him differently.

But that doesn't change the fact that some of the shit he's posted is good shit. Chin up, friend.

------------------------------------------

And those were some thoughts on D2.

As an aside, speaking as a sub, you guys sub out too much.
 
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