Remember, someone will have to die at 6 fascist policies. So if that happens today I suggest vigging either Saber or the Chancellor if we get 2 fascist policies today. Otherwise be ready and we need to be 100% certain we dont vig a named townie. I think even if they are recruited to anarchists we dont want to risk that unless we are 100% certain they were recruited.
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NOC Secret Hitler Mafia - Game Thread [FASCISTS WIN]
- Thread starter Dead by Daylight
- Start date
The first issue is that you were never chancellor in the first place :P
I have an issue with anyone actively campaigning to be chancellor on the 4->6 bubble cause imo that means they're gonna try some shit.
Ya I was thinking president. I havent been chancellor yet.
If I say I am ok with being vigged if there are 2 fascist policies passed does that change your mind?
There is only one person who has yet to be chancellor/prez even once so far. We could go full round robin and nom them. Id also tentatively be good with Des getting it again.
None of the chancellors have provided any info about themselves except Evie. None of the presidents have provided evidence of their townieness because they all claimed 4-1 policies.
I would expect anyone responsible for 2 fascist policies to be voted/vigged. So no, it doesn't really change my mind as much as it's a baseline expectation.
I have no reason to prefer any chancellor at this time, and perhaps I'll have even less reason after saber reveals the policies. But at this point, if saber said they were gonna be able to send 2 liberal policies, would a fascist trade their life to flip that into 2 fascist? It's a legitimate question at this time. 2 more liberal policies would be lights out for the scum team and 2 more fascist puts at least some luck pressure on the game plus some WIFOM with claiming/electing hitler later.
Saber's been a slight townlean for me this game, I will probably upvote whoever he trusts.
I would expect anyone responsible for 2 fascist policies to be voted/vigged. So no, it doesn't really change my mind as much as it's a baseline expectation.
I have no reason to prefer any chancellor at this time, and perhaps I'll have even less reason after saber reveals the policies. But at this point, if saber said they were gonna be able to send 2 liberal policies, would a fascist trade their life to flip that into 2 fascist? It's a legitimate question at this time. 2 more liberal policies would be lights out for the scum team and 2 more fascist puts at least some luck pressure on the game plus some WIFOM with claiming/electing hitler later.
Saber's been a slight townlean for me this game, I will probably upvote whoever he trusts.
What did Evie say?
Well according to gambler's fallacy we are due for like 4 liberal policies ;)
Evie provided policy info (albeit randomly) before CK was able to. So it was kind of like Evie was the president in that case
so i got 5 fascist policies
KEK,
Well there it is
Not gonna lie I think Saber should claim role. Open to opinions. Someone must be vigged presuming we are getting 2 fascist policies today.
How do the fascists land so many policies with RNG? I cant even land a freaking stone edge against gyarados. And get my ttar clapped because my opponent knew I would miss.
> well obviously someone is lying
So it seems, so it seems
> well obviously someone is lying
So it seems, so it seems
Saber is dead, as far as I'm concerned, if this is true.
And now I'd prefer that saber doesn't pick the chancellor to minimize the chance of force passing some liberal policies to a mafia buddy. I'm open to opinions on who is towny at the moment cause I'm having trouble making any substantive reads here.
And now I'd prefer that saber doesn't pick the chancellor to minimize the chance of force passing some liberal policies to a mafia buddy. I'm open to opinions on who is towny at the moment cause I'm having trouble making any substantive reads here.
i mean like, 5 fascist policies was gonna happen sometime. I can't lie about what i got
It is a 13.2% chance to have 5 fascist policies.... so its not impossible that Saber is telling the truth regardless. But I think its very clear that we are reaching 6 today so we need to prepare to vig someone.
well if i were scum i would lie and try to put the blame on the chancellor
I'm aware of the math and I'm aware that he could be telling the truth but that's not really the point. Everyone could be telling the truth but almost half of us have a reason to actively lie.
This isn't even necessarily true, this would get you killed at exactly the same speed (we vote the chancellor and vig you when we see the town flip). It's almost useless to do this.
By contrast, a mafian who rolled 4,1 has to lie and say they got 5,0 if they want to be able to pass to any chancellor (and potentially get away with it because people brush it off as bad luck). In fact, you'll have to do this a lot of the time as mafia because you'll get 4,1 a lot more often. A mafian claiming to have to pass 4 fascist policies is only telling the truth about 28% of the time.
ok so say i actuallly got 5 fascist policys though. from my perspective if i were scum i would lie and say i got like 1-4 and try to take someone down with me.
I actually kind of believe this
Well who would you vig? I assume either me or Saber? Because the other 2 presidents were you and CK who AFKd his presidency unfortunately.
Oh wait MB it was fairy who was prez, not Blazade. And Carl also had a 1 policy term.
I've been pretty clear that Saber should be vigged after this claim. I would not vig you, no.
Saber, I don't think it would be very profitable to try and get into a 50/50 unless it bought you another cycle. On this particular turn it's actually the stupidest thing to do as mafia, even if it killed another person. But this is descending into WIFOM.
It's also a stupid thing to do as anarchist because if an anarchist dies they have to get to 1v1 which means winning is literally impossible.
What most people would try to do imo is aim for a scenario where they get the policies passed but somehow convince the others to let them live anyway. That's why I'm being firm here.