replay:
http://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen7ubers-315531
team preview:
I see 3 potential u-turn users so I know he is running something that abuses free turns. I know thimo is capable of running pretty much anything
so it could be anything from a choice band zygarde to specs yveltal to eruption primal groudon. I don't want to give him too much room to start u-turning and I figure a Pheromosa lead is most likely as it is fast and can u-turn or use another attack freely vs my entire team. Another thing that I'm paying attention to is which defogger is he using? I assume because his team has some passive mons that allow hazards to go up the Arceus or the Scizor is the defogger. If its defog Arceus, the matchup is pretty bad as z geo won't be able to do anything as the scizor is likely SD. If its an offensive or SR arceus form it tells me the Scizor is probably defog and in the case of SR arceus, the Groudon is offensive and could be anything from RP to SD 3 atks to Eruption. Glare Zygarde with specs yveltal seems like a real possibility as well to cover support arceus forms etc (particularly fairy).
match notes:
I get turn 1 right with the lead matchup. I have a couple options here. I could predict a u-turn and try to kill the pheromosa with a life orb shadow sneak (63% chance to kill), I could predict him to attack me with something other than u-turn and stay in thus clicking spectral thief to ensure a KO, or I could close combat to cover a switch into yveltal though I might take u-turn chip damage doing so. I know he won't risk me clicking sneak on his phero and i don't think phero has coverage to hit marsh (and if it does i still don't think he'd risk the sneak) so I fire off a close combat and catch his yveltal with a crit. I calc the close combat crit damage on 0 bulk yveltal to see that he has investment for sure. He has no item revealed though and bulky yveltal has always been trash so I'm assuming the only possible set at this point is bulky scarf. I don't want to risk a shadow sneak roll since I don't know his exact EVs based on one roll. I end up switching out to my own yveltal on a u-turn because i don't expect him to let his yveltal get trapped by goth and PP stalled into setup fodder.
So now on turn 3 we have a new interaction with 2 completely healthy mons on the field. I also see fairyceus revealed which I like as it means his scizor is almost surely defog. This means if I trap the fairyceus, trap the yveltal locked into owing, or trap a zygarde lacking dtail, I can use them as setup fodder for my z geo xern. I also know fairyceus can be a huge threat if I lose mindgames with it and allow it to stay in the game. I have a mence, marsh, and yveltal which all get dicked by fairyceus so at this point I think its best to try and catch him doubling. He goes for SR on my Oblivion Wing which sucks for me because now he gets his rocks up. In my head I'm thinking that sacking yveltal is ok in this situation as I will be able to trap fairyceus with gothitelle anyway and use it as setup fodder if he kills my yveltal. Spamming Owing may have looked like an attempt to catch a switch, which it was, but it was also a catch all play as even if I lose my yveltal I'm in a good position trapping fairyceus for my DD dtail mence/Life Orb Marshadow. He lets his fairyceus get down to 33% which is good for my mence and marsh, but it also means I'll have to wait to trap something with goth. After letting his fairyceus get low, he sacks his yveltal and then brings out phero.
Turn 6 is an important turn to note as I now have my yveltal vs his Phero. I'm not scared of a quiver dance or setup phero as Sucker Punch isn't common in the first place and I know any reasonable player would expect the yveltal user to click Owing on a sack. I'm ok with sucker punching in this position as it will put Phero in 100% ko range of sneak. Basically landing sucker here means Phero is never a threat for the rest of the game as I'll have a Pdon, sneak marsh, and defensive xerneas to deal with whatever set he is running. I crit sucker which is big, but not game outcome changing which I'll explain later. Also my yveltal drops to an Ice beam meaning the remaining moves are likely HJK/Low kick, Spin/Pjab, U-Turn, unless he is some Quiver Dance set.
I feel safe to go for a sneak as he really lacks solid Mixed Marsh answers at this point in the game. Phero is a non threat to my team so I sneak to ensure he doesn't try to attack me whilst sacking his Pheromosa. He ends up bringing in his Zygarde which proves to be defensive and unless he is SpD invested, I know hp ice is a favorable roll for me at this point in the game. I go for an HP Ice as he stays in, which surprised me as he has a Scizor/Phero Sack to scout. He ends up getting rewarded for this inherently risky play though by living on 1 percent and getting his complete form off and Toxicing my Marsh which is important to note as he may lack dtail. The Sucker Punch crit allows me to risk my Marshadow's health here anyway as it is less important to keep it healthy for Phero since Pdon will kill it with SR. Had I not crit, I'd probably have gone xerneas or gothitelle to preserve marsh. Despite this, I know he won't risk Zygarde now though and if he tries to save it, he would probably rest. At this point I feel I should take my free turn to switch to Primal Groudon and get my rocks up. He ends up switching to his fairyceus so my switch pays off and I trade rocks while taking a Toxic.
This next interaction is important to note as it is the 1 play in the game where Thimo actually catches and calls out one of my plays. I get lazy here and go with an obvious switch to Gothitelle. The reason this play was so choreographed is because not only is my Pdon toxiced, but it is also favorable for me to trap fairyceus rather than kill it. He doubles to Sciz which works out really well for him as it forces my Pdon back in to take damage that I was trying to avoid. Its a scenario where caring too much about Pdon's health leads to losing health and momentum, whereas I could have always fired off a free plume and potentially caught that switch.
So now I'm thinking about end game and I want to just play this linearly if possible. I don't want something like xerneas taking a toxic even though it appears to be a free switch. Instead I go with a Pdon roar to catch a double or phase zyg out on an attack/rest. I end up roaring out the Phero onto SR which is good in the case that he is a defog Scizor. It means phero is out of the game and won't come into play in the end game.
Now on Turn 14 I go to my Gothitelle because I want to see if he has Dtail. Also, I can taunt allowing my Xern to come in without taking toxic. He reveals that he isn't sleep talk which means... drats, he's probably dtail. For some reason he wakes up and chooses to start clicking Thousand Arrows rather than phasing me out. I charm him a few times and realize that he wants to Toxic and force rest, then dtail. At this point however, I have lowered his attack as much as possible and Taunted after taking the toxic. This means my xerneas can come in now with taking close to 0 damage anyway. He clicks dtail on the switch and it looks like an insane play, though there was no reason for me to ever rest, as Xern could come in and win from this position.
Turn 21, I Z Geomancy up as he goes Scizor and I'm thinking to myself, "shit he's really SD with spin phero as hazard control instead". He however starts to bullet punch and at this point I know there is nothing he can do to win. Had he been SD Scizor, I could have always revenge killed it and played for the dd dtail mence win condition though my Xern ends up winning, as it cannot lose unless he gets a lucky crit.
