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smogoff amoonguss — end
- Thread starter az
- Start date
Theoretical perfect killing scenario:
Blazade is correct, I believe we need to stick to a strategy, or else we will inevitably fall down to 11 sooner or later without catching an imposter.
14 -4
10 - 4
10 -3
7 - 3
7 - 2
5 - 2
5 - 1
4 - 1
4- 0
Scientists win
10 - 4
10 -3
7 - 3
7 - 2
5 - 2
5 - 1
4 - 1
4- 0
Scientists win
13 - 4
9 - 4
9 - 3
6 - 3
6 - 2
4 - 2
4 - 1
3 - 1
3 - 0
Scientists win
9 - 4
9 - 3
6 - 3
6 - 2
4 - 2
4 - 1
3 - 1
3 - 0
Scientists win
12 - 4
8 - 4
8 - 3
5 - 3
5 - 2
3 - 2
3 - 1
2 - 1
2 - 0
Scientists win
8 - 4
8 - 3
5 - 3
5 - 2
3 - 2
3 - 1
2 - 1
2 - 0
Scientists win
11 - 4
7 - 4
7 - 3
4 - 3
4 - 2
2 -2
Imposters win
7 - 4
7 - 3
4 - 3
4 - 2
2 -2
Imposters win
Blazade is correct, I believe we need to stick to a strategy, or else we will inevitably fall down to 11 sooner or later without catching an imposter.
M24 you have commited the high crime of triple posting. Please report to az for your punishment.
Ok here's an important part of the strategy:
Tasks don't really matter at this point. We need to catch an impostor before it gets too late. Also, we need to note that the fatal number can be very easily be more than 11, as there is no guarentee that we can catch an impostor every round. Therefore, the best play is to find an impostor now, if we can be sure which one. Unfortunately, we are not.
I am placing major sus on cityscapes (for being alone in a room) and Gravity Monkey (for being in utilities and acting the most sus in the chat). Just saying. If I had to vote for somebody I'd vote one of them (prob cityscapes) though there's not enough real evidence so I'm not sure at all.
E: oh right bb skarm too.
Ok here's an important part of the strategy:
Tasks don't really matter at this point. We need to catch an impostor before it gets too late. Also, we need to note that the fatal number can be very easily be more than 11, as there is no guarentee that we can catch an impostor every round. Therefore, the best play is to find an impostor now, if we can be sure which one. Unfortunately, we are not.
I am placing major sus on cityscapes (for being alone in a room) and Gravity Monkey (for being in utilities and acting the most sus in the chat). Just saying. If I had to vote for somebody I'd vote one of them (prob cityscapes) though there's not enough real evidence so I'm not sure at all.
E: oh right bb skarm too.
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I'm down to shoot either bbskarm or zxgzxg today. City reads more town imo.
We're never going to know for sure who the imposters are in this game if they decide to kill only when it's safe to or take advantage of groups with big 50-50s when they sabotage. Covering utilities a lot is a good deterrent but it's difficult for us to make progress.
If we're not going to shoot today we should be actively voting to skip, though, just in case. It's probably justifiable to wait another night but if there are many scenarios where if we mislynch tomorrow (eg with 2 kills we go to 11 town going into the night) it's just over.
We're never going to know for sure who the imposters are in this game if they decide to kill only when it's safe to or take advantage of groups with big 50-50s when they sabotage. Covering utilities a lot is a good deterrent but it's difficult for us to make progress.
If we're not going to shoot today we should be actively voting to skip, though, just in case. It's probably justifiable to wait another night but if there are many scenarios where if we mislynch tomorrow (eg with 2 kills we go to 11 town going into the night) it's just over.
I would be okay with that. I forget though, are Imposters revealed after they are killed? (az). bb skarm and zxgzxg have both said pretty much nothing all day. To harp too much on that would be too hypocritical of me but I agree bb skarm being alone is somewhat sus. I'd be fine with skipping but if Blazade is right that we need a kill today I'd go with bb skarm. But that'd only be if imposters are revealed, otherwise I think a kill here would make things even more difficult.
Getting an imposter out is hugely beneficial today, and for us to be able to move forward, we need people to be able to follow a strategy, we don't have the certainty of that with inactive players anyway.
thats major sus right here tbh
i checked up on pvk and she was in the utilities as claimed. not that useful
--
i see a lot of people saying that we need to kill someone during the day but there are fourteen scientists left and four impostors. Doesn't take a genius to work out that we're more likely to randomly kill one of our own. Even if we exclude the Laboratory Five, it's still a 9:4 chance (69%, nice)
--
and, come to that, it's perfectly possible that 2/5 of the Lab Gang were impostors and decided not to kill because they were outnumbered. so there is no safe set of known scientists! aside from myself who has painted a target on my back by claiming project lead uncontested
--
ok lets think about what might happen if we all go to utilities
- the imps might turn the lights off and kill 3 of us. the rest of us would see who turned the lights off and we could vote them out on day 2 with 11 scis remaining, making it 11:3
- or they might just kill 4 of us in which case we see which 4 did the kill. we vote them out day 2 and it's 10:3 with exact knowledge
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yeah i think the only bad thing that can happen is if a scientist gets killed without giving us any clues (this is why it was dumb for everyone to submit their actions on the first night without attempting any kind of coordination). unfortunately scientists have to have the 'greater good' mindset: the only way we can make progress is by getting (some of) ourselves killed
maybe we can take a statistical view of the killings from last night based on where tc and scarf might have gone:
- we know that neither of them went to lab or they would have been seen by at least one scientist & i know that they weren't in the conference, so there is a 1/7 (14%) chance for each other room
- the chance that they both avoided any one room is 6/7 * 6/7 = 73%
- therefore the chance that either of them went to a given room is 27%
- if either scarf or tc went to utilities (27% chance of this happening) then utilities gang must be the impostors
so here's the first proposition: do we roll that dice? if we get lucky then we have instantly uncovered every impostor and won the game. if we don't, we are down to 13:4 going in to the second night - but i think we can hold off on that loss by all grouping together in the utilities for the night
- we know that neither of them went to lab or they would have been seen by at least one scientist & i know that they weren't in the conference, so there is a 1/7 (14%) chance for each other room
- the chance that they both avoided any one room is 6/7 * 6/7 = 73%
- therefore the chance that either of them went to a given room is 27%
- if either scarf or tc went to utilities (27% chance of this happening) then utilities gang must be the impostors
so here's the first proposition: do we roll that dice? if we get lucky then we have instantly uncovered every impostor and won the game. if we don't, we are down to 13:4 going in to the second night - but i think we can hold off on that loss by all grouping together in the utilities for the night
Your math is assuming we're trying to hit any imposter. I'm trying to hit the people who specifically killed last night.
Imo that excludes any room with 3+ people, including utilities. It also by this logic means that of we suspect someone in a room with 2 of having done this we also suspect the other.
I think Hula and Mace in security are good. The interaction about vouching for Hula thinking he did cams read legitimate. I also have a town read on M24 and city today.
That's why I think my candidates are a better than strictly random vote.
I have a great idea that no one has ever thought:
What if... we voted out the imposters 
that only rules out the lab gang 5. tc+scarf could have been killed by utilities gang 4
I mean it could be because that would reveal an imp was in utilities? idk that doesnt seem the best move ever, and if we were the imps and did that, i feel like corroborating a lie that we were in another room wouldve been kinda better played. Thats just my train of thought.
They get to lie about their locations with impunity and make it so anything else we know is meaningless. No one is admitting to being in utilities if it got sabotagued so the info that an imp was there is useless.
This regardless of the fact that I don't think they group up and try to hit one room anyway. It's a big gamble. But if they did, it'd probably be utilities, and it'd probably be so they can secure a sabotage.