NYANPASU AND WELCOME BACK TO THE UNBIASED PREDICTIONS
Lessons learned from Week 4:
1. THE BIGS ARE BACK BROS!!!!
2. The Tyrants season is looking kind of shaky. This is a BIG week..haha ok I'm not tony or pearl. anyway, If they lose this week, they're basically gonna have to run the table to get in, and considering that they still have to square off against two pre-season favorites in the Wolfpack ad the Sharks, this week is critical to their playoff hopes. CBB and blunder have underperformed, and their last SS slot is a complete disaster after nat quit. they have the talent to bounce back, and are only 1 point out of 3rd place, so anything's possible. The water is definitely a bit more murky than it was after Week 2, though.
3. Fear is one of the luckiest players ever Sorry, I forgot that these are supposed to be LESSONS, and not something we've already known for a while.
3. Gondra has ASCENDED LOL The man had a heat World Cup, and then somehow turned into one of the worst players on the site in Snake LOOL jesus he was bad. He's been an absolute menace this tour, though, and it's helping propel the Ruiners to a solid season
4. Speaking of the Ruiners, they really might make the playoffs. A lot of their shaky slots, such as Gondra, are having nice runs. With many pre-season favorites looking pretty shaky, the Ruiners really might do it.
Trade Review cuz why not:
The Ever Grande BIGS trade Jytcampbell + 6k to the Wi-Fi Wolfpack for Charmflash
BIGS: -jytcampbell, -6k, +Charmflash
WOLFPACK: -Charmflash, +jytcampbell, +6k
I really like this trade for the bigs, surprisingly LOOOL The mids pool is an absolute joke, so who really cares. Jyt is unviable and the bigs have 48985959 subs, so who cares about him either. Now, Charmflash has in fact looked like one of the worst players on the site, so...You're basically hoping that he can return to his previous form in SM OU. He's apparently in GSC right now...don't know how that's gonna turn out, but hey, they didn't really give up anything notable and got a high-ceiling player. I'm not the biggest charmflash believer, but I like the move based on the extremely low amount of resources they had to give up for this. On the Wolfpack side, this trade makes a lot of sense as well. Charmflash was clearly not working out for them, and they probably had some internal drama as well. The Well has been unstoppable in SM, so they can't really flex Charm there either. The mids pool is a joke, but that leads us to our next trade:
The Circus Maximus Tigers trade 1 True Lycan to the Wi-Fi Wolfpack for 6k
TIGERS: +6K, -1 true lycan
WOLFPACK: +1 true Lycan, -6k
So, the Wolfpack essentially traded Charmflash for jytcampbell and the baron. This is a decent return, and probably the best one they could get considering how low Charmflash's stock is and the fact that people who would have paid more for him such as Genesis7 are locked away on teams that wouldn't get Charm in a million years. The baron was relatively hyped in the past, but he's been okay this tour. He will have ABR's help now, so I guess there's that. The Lycan trade itself makes a lot of sense, although it does leave their LC a bit questionable for the future. HT is terrible, but maybe they can put Jyt in it or something...I don't really know how that will go, though LOL The baron was only worth 3.5k in the auction, so it's not like this is some hot commodity. As for the Tigers, they weren't starting the baron anyway, so why not get some potentially useful players at mids...they're definitely getting vil, aren't they LOOOL oh my god that would be so classic. Anyway, this trade's fine for both teams.
The Ever Grande BIGS trade soulgazer + Descending to the Cryonicles for Leftiez + 1.5k
BIGs: +Leftiez, +1.5k, -soulgazer, -Descending
Cryonicless: +soulgazer, +Descending, -Leftiez, -1.5k
Once again, I like this trade for the bigs LOL Leftiez was somehow worth 16.5k this spl LOOOL I don't know how he was possibly worth that much, but he's still talented. They got him and an additional 1.5k, which will let them pick up another player at mids. All they had to give up was sg, who is completely unproven in non-lower tiers and who wasn't starting anyway, and descending, a random lost in the sea of the Bigs' 8958492349489 subs who may or may not have quit. Nice move for them. I don't really get it from the Cryonicles perspective, but it appears that Leftiez' activity had a lot to do with this move. The man did just take down bro fist, though, so....yeah idk seems pretty weird to me sg definitely has upside, and is pretty helpful apparently, so perhaps he can find success for them. This trade could be fine for both teams, but I like it a lot more for the BIGs.
Stark Sharks (6) vs (5) Circus Maximus Tigers
SS OU: bro fist vs Rexus | john doesn't seem to be losing to anyone nowadays so.
SS OU: xray vs Tace | xray's been solid this spl and is a better player
SS OU: teal6 vs robjr | teal has fallen back to earth a bit after a blazing start, but I'm still not the biggest rob believer so
SS DOU: Kiichikos vs MajorBowman
SS LC: EviGaro vs Osh | evi finally got her first loss last week. osh has been rolling since week 2, and is way more proven so. solid edge
SM OU: frisoeva vs Eternal Spirit | frisoeva hasn't really been impressive, and gama has bounced back nicely the last 2 weeks.
ORAS OU: Erzengel vs Luigi | erzengel has been pretty good since his abysmal week 1 performance. both players are 3-1, but luigi is slightly more proven with his STour win, so going with him again.
BW OU: SoulWind vs Steve Angello | soulwind's just gonna keep farming in this tier so
DPP OU: DeepBlueC vs Vay | vay somehow managed to pull off the impossible task of going 0-3 in the variance madhouse. to top it all off, he was recently benched for RAICHY, so how on earth can anyone possibly bold him LOL
ADV OU: @Blightbringerr vs McMeghan | blight's been decent so far, but roro's clearly the best adv player along with bkc so
GSC OU: Conflict vs Zokuru | zokuru looked like an absolute clown against pearl, but managed to bounce back with a win over a crust hodor last week. conflict presents a far more daunting challenge in 2020, as he looked like a monster in both his GSC games this spl. massive edge
RBY OU: Genesis vs Kaz | kaz has been better this tour
Congregation of the Classiest (6) vs (4) Indie Scooters
SS OU: suapah vs Lopunny Kicks | lop kicks is a spreadsheet warrior, but for the first time maybe ever, I'll be bolding suapah LOOL He's gone 3-1 against easily the hardest schedule in the tour, notching wins against eo, flcl, and star, with his only loss coming to blunder. lop kicks isn't good enough to where I can favor him here over someone who has been this heat
SS OU: blarghlfarghl vs talah | blargh got crushed in pretty embarrassing fashion last week...but come on people LOOOL imagine bolding a non-greek asta / fear / roudolf greek player. I'm honestly pretty stunned talah's still starting, honestly.
SS OU: Insult vs Jayde | Insult's been pretty good this tour while jayde has struggled a bit. miniscule edge.
SS DOU: stax vs Memoric
SS LC: Serene Grace vs zf | serene grace is hyped or something, but zf is an actual player SO just off that, he can have the bold.
SM OU: Tamahome vs ZoroDark | classiest finally decided to stop wasting their best player in the variance tier; well, at least he's amazing at it, I guess. Zoroclick is solid enough, but tama's better.
ORAS OU: Persephone vs Adri | persephoe's had some nice showings, and I have no idea who adri is so. persephone did play like a clown against cbb, though, so he might lose this one.
BW OU: Raiza vs Kevin Garrett | kg? LOOOOL what year is this people HELLO The Scooters must be desperate as fuck. The last time KG played BW was when he washed aqua and marth in spl 5. It's been 6 years bros LOL raiza's actually been pretty solid, and is a few lucky breaks away from a good record. big edge
DPP OU: Excal vs Honor | honor has looked absolutely terrible, but come on people...excal? LOL that guy's unviable. decent edge in the madhouse
ADV OU: Teclis vs CyberOdin | teclis is definitely not an spl-caliber adver. odin's been pretty solid, and i like his chances of washing this guy.
GSC OU: KratosMana vs Fear | definitely not hyping this as the game of the week or anything, because we all know what's going to happen. The game's gonna be even, and maybe anti makes a few plays. then fear will get some luck, and then the game will spiral out of control. Fear will get a comfortable win and all his nutriders will spam "FOAT" in the chat until their keyboards break. anti's a better overall player than fear, in my opinion, but he's far less proven in gsc, and while has had some nice wins, his body of work pales in comparison to fear. Fear's actually good; he's just overrated. In GSC, he's better than anti based on what we've seen so far, so I'll give him the edge.
RBY OU: Amaranth vs Bedschibaer | this game's a coinflip so.
Dragonspiral Tyrants (6) vs (6) Ever Grande BIGS
SS OU: blunder vs aim | this game's basically a coinflip, honestly LOL the youtube battle should be pretty fire, but idk, my gut tells me joey's gonna take this so for the first time in centuries I'll be picking against blunder.
SS OU: Christo vs Sage | christo's been decent, but sage is somehow undefeated so far. if this was UU, I'd give christo the biggest edge ever. In SS OU, though, sage can have a miniscule one.
SS OU: TDK vs Leftiez | idk why Leftiez isn't in BW yet, like...? He did beat John last week, but he looked pretty bad in his other games. Solid edge for TDK
SS DOU: marilli vs Ezrael | marilli's been fire, but as I said last week, Ezrael has surpassed former SPL VGC God 616 on the sheet, and is an stounding 17-4 in his past 3 team tours in Doubles. small edge.
SS LC: Luthier vs Kushalos | Well, there's a reason the chef hasn't been a starter so far. He's talented, but Luthier definitely has more experience.
SM OU: CTC vs Sabella | The Basedlord had a pretty rough showing last week, but I still have some hope. Sabella' snot an overbearing force or anything, so CTC probably has the talent to take this one
ORAS OU: CrashinBoomBang vs Santu | CBB's poor season is a major reason why the Tyrants are in dire straits. This is a good bounceback spot, though, since Santu hasn't been overly impressive in his Smogon career.
BW OU: John W vs jacob | john w has been pretty terrible since week 1, and it looks like the stage might be a bit too big for him. If he loses this week, it really might be time to smell the roses. jacob has done pretty much nothing of note in major tours, though, so I'll give john w a chance for another week.
DPP OU: The Grand Babido vs GaryTheGengar | this game's also pretty much a tossup. I don't really think Gary is good, but heist hasn't had the best games in 2020. His game yesterday was honestly a disaster, and he threw countless times before ultimately wrapping the game up with some luck. miniscule edge.
ADV OU: Gilbert arenas vs Fakes | OML Fakes is amazing at ADV, and marcop hasn't been that great this tour. I've been a Fakes supporter for a while, and I like his odds of taking this
GSC OU: gorgie vs Charmflash | LOOOOL WHAT ARE WE DOING?? WHY'S HE IN GSC LOL man. floppy finally fell back to earth last week after carrying the tyrants for the 1st 3 weeks of the season. meanwhile, Charm got himself kicked out of the wolfpack after an absolutely terrible performance. I'm still not a floppy believer, though, and charm will probably be motivated to finally win a game this week. miniscule edge.
RBY OU: Heroic Troller vs Nails | troller's the best rbyer so.
Team Raiders (7) vs (4) Cryonicles
SS OU: Simia vs Sacri' | sacri's been pretty fire, and simia is unproven
SS OU: Lycans vs Eo Ut Mortus | lycans' team finally got another win last week, leaving his teams with 4 wins in a little over 3 seasons. Lycans, the player, tough, has looked pretty abysmal through 3 weeks this season. Eo's fire so. big edge.
SS OU: Lusa vs soulgazer | sg is unproven as hell in non-lower tiers, and is especially unproven in ss ou. Lusa or whoever has actually been solid this tour, so gonna trust him here
SS DOU: Lunar vs Tman
SS LC: LilyAC vs ggggd | pablo has been fire this tour and his reputation's pretty good. small edge
SM OU: Trosko vs Updated Kanto | it sucks having to bold against kanto, but GODSKO is a monster in SM and ORAS. What he did last SPL and World Cup should not be forgotten. I'm a huge kanto believer, but gonna pick him to lose this one.
ORAS OU: reiku vs Garay oak | reiku showed some signs of life last week, and he is historically a very good ORAS player. Garay's pretty unproven in non-lower tiers, so. small edge
BW OU: dice vs Finchinator | finch has had a nice SPL, but finally took his first loss last week. He's solid, but dice is better, as evidenced by the fact that I bold dice every week LOOOL
DPP OU: ToF vs shawyu 1313 | shawyu's been better than jirachee ever could have hoped for. ToF is a veteran, though, and has a nice SPL himself. small edge
ADV OU: UD vs z0mOG | LOOOOOOOOOOL Wow, the UD vs z0mog beef battle. This is easily the game of the week. Not only is there drama between the players, but it also features one of the worst players on the site in UD LOL Have you guys SEEN him play the past few tours? Like...really. z0m's fortunate as hell to be 3-1, but he's definitely a better player. What he lacks in experience, he should be able to make up for in playing ability.
GSC OU: Earthworm vs Mr.E | both these players have looked pretty washed this tour. Earthworm had some pretty bad showings, and mre is back to his complaining ways after some ugly losses to anti and conflict. Thus, I'll just throw all these results out and just pick who I would have taken before this SPL, which in this case, would be Earthworm.
RBY OU: MetalGro$$ vs HML am | metal's had a slightly better SPL and is more experienced. miniscule edge.
did I really just pick the dogshit raiders to beat the team I ranked 2nd in the pr? LOOL what the hell. bad matchups bros
Alpha Ruiners (6) vs (5) Wi-fi Wolfpack
SS OU: Empo vs 1 True Lycan | ofc, the one time I don't bold this clown, he gets a win LOL Empo seems to play sub-par players every week, idk what it is. The baron has looked pretty trash this tour, and empo's solid enough. solid edge
SS OU: FLCL vs The Hallows | FLCL's had a nice run and the hallows is unproven.
SS OU: Twixtry vs Star | twixtry's had a slightly better tour, but I'm a big star believer, as we all know. decent edge.
SS DOU: qsns vs SMB
SS LC: jake vs HT | HT fluked his away to his first win of the season last week, prompting tony to leave him in as a sacrificial lamb this week against jake. very nice.
SM OU: Gondra vs Welli0u | This one's surprisingly close. The Well has been near unstoppable on the sheet lately, but Gondra's been an absolute monster this tour, and hasn't needed luck to match the well's undefeated record. He took down blunder last week pretty easily, and I really like the way he's been playing. miniscule edge in the near-tossup.
ORAS OU: xImRaptor vs Sjneider | both these players have surprisingly been good. in situations like these, you go with the player with the abr team support.
BW OU: Caetano93 vs Pearl | pearl's looked pretty shaky this tour, and needed some major luck to win last week against Raiza. his only other win this year came against an unviable BWer so. The doctor has actually been pretty solid, but he's still far less proven in general. small edge for pearl.
DPP OU: Hyogafodex vs BIHI | hyoga's unsurprisingly been pretty bad, and bihi has bkc. small edge in the madhouse.
ADV OU: Altina vs BKC | Speaking of the goat, BKC has been an absolute god this tour LOOL He's looking unstoppable, and his motivation is definitely as high as ever. I have no idea how Altina is, which speaks to the absolute joke that is the ADV player pool. BKC really might jut go undefeated if they keep feeding him filler characters every week.
GSC OU: FriendOfMrGolem120 vs sulcata | the milk has fallen off quite a bit this tour. fomg's had some nice games, so I'll trust him in a close one here
RBY OU: Alexander. vs rozes | Ok...why is prinz in RBY when they have some random in ADV? Maybe they just don't want to fodder off prinz to the goat, which I guess is a viable strategy LOL rozes had some nice games in world cup, but prinz is way more proven and is probably the 2nd best rbyer.