Smogon Premier League XI - Week 7

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Welcome to the eleventh iteration of SPL, SPL XI. In this tournament, 10 teams containing the best players on Smogon (and starry) play against each other and duke it out every week, attempting to gather as many wins as they can to reach playoffs. Some of them will fail, while others will bloom. Whatever the case, the matches will be exciting, so without further ado, here are tournament rules and the matchups!


Tournaments Rules and General Guidelines


Matchups

Indie Scooters (6) vs (6) Cryonicles

SS OU: Leo vs Eo Ut Mortus
SS OU: starry blanket vs Sacri'
SS OU: talah vs soulgazer
SS DOU: Memoric vs Tman
SS LC: tazz vs ggggd
SM OU: Lopunny Kicks vs Updated Kanto
ORAS OU: Adri vs Garay oak
BW OU: zf vs Finchinator
DPP OU: Kevin Garrett vs shawyu 1313
ADV OU: CyberOdin vs z0mOG
GSC OU: Fear vs Mr.E
RBY OU: Bedschibaer vs HML am


Team Raiders (6) vs (6) Stark Sharks

SS OU: Lusa vs teal6
SS OU: Vulpix03 vs xray
SS OU: Simia vs bro fist
SS DOU: kaori vs Kiichikos
SS LC: LilyAC vs EviGaro
SM OU: Trosko vs frisoeva
ORAS OU: reiku vs Erzengel
BW OU: Posho vs SoulWind
DPP OU: ToF vs DeepBlueC
ADV OU: pasy_g vs Blightbringer
GSC OU: dice vs Conflict
RBY OU: MetalGro$$ vs Genesis7


Alpha Ruiners (5) vs (7) Ever Grande BIGS

SS OU: mncmt vs Sage
SS OU: FLCL vs aim
SS OU: Empo vs xtra$hine
SS DOU: qsns vs Ezrael
SS LC: jake vs idiotfrommars
SM OU: Gondra vs ima
ORAS OU: xImRaptor vs Santu
BW OU: Twixtry vs Frania
DPP OU: Emeral vs GaryTheGengar
ADV OU: Alexander. vs CALLOUS
GSC OU: FriendOfMrGolem120 vs Haru
RBY OU: Caetano93 vs Nails


Circus Maximus Tigers (5) vs (7) Congregation of the Classiest

SS OU: le LLiolae vs Insult
SS OU: Tace vs suapah
SS OU: robjr vs blarghlfarghl
SS DOU: MajorBowman vs stax
SS LC: Osh vs Serene Grace
SM OU: Kebab mlml vs Relous
ORAS OU: Luigi vs snaga
BW OU: Steve Angello vs Raiza
DPP OU: Raichy vs Excal
ADV OU: Zokuru vs Tamahome
GSC OU: McMeghan vs KratosMana
RBY OU: Kaz vs Amaranth


Wi-fi Wolfpack (5) vs (7) Dragonspiral Tyrants

SS OU: Star vs TDK
SS OU: 1 True Lycan vs blunder
SS OU: The Hallows vs Christo
SS DOU: SMB vs marilli
SS LC: Jytcampbell vs Luthier
SM OU: Welli0u vs ict
ORAS OU: Sjneider vs CrashinBoomBang
BW OU: Pearl vs John W
DPP OU: BIHI vs The Grand Babido
ADV OU: BKC vs Gilbert arenas
GSC OU: sulcata vs gorgie
RBY OU: rozes vs Heroic Troller





Deadline February 23rd, 9 PM EST
 
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Posho

Know your own powerlessness.
is a Tiering Contributoris the Smogon Tour Season 23 Championis a Past Smogon Snake Draft Champion
I've been waiting for my match vs. SoulWind with much lust. My performance probably isn't even an omen of what it used to be, but this game is mine alone to enjoy, regardless of how much hype it exudes. I will make sure to provide a Po Show this Sunday.

I pray we have a good one, Borja :blobuwu:
 
Indie Scooters (5) vs (7) Cryonicles

SS OU: Leo vs Eo Ut Mortus
SS OU: Jayde vs Sacri'
SS OU: ZoroDark vs soulgazer
SS DOU: Memoric vs Tman
SS LC: tazz vs ggggd
SM OU: Lopunny Kicks vs Updated Kanto
ORAS OU: Adri vs Garay oak
BW OU: zf vs Finchinator
DPP OU: Kevin Garrett vs shawyu 1313
ADV OU: CyberOdin vs z0mOG
GSC OU: Fear vs Mr.E
RBY OU: Bedschibaer vs HML am

Team Raiders (6) vs (6) Stark Sharks

SS OU: Lusa vs teal6
SS OU: Vulpix03 vs xray
SS OU: Simia vs bro fist
SS DOU: kaori vs Kiichikos
SS LC: LilyAC vs EviGaro
SM OU: Trosko vs frisoeva
ORAS OU: reiku vs Erzengel
BW OU: Posho vs SoulWind
DPP OU: ToF vs DeepBlueC
ADV OU: pasy_g vs Blightbringerr
GSC OU: dice vs Conflict
RBY OU: MetalGro$$ vs Genesis7

Circus Maximus Tigers (4) vs (8) Congregation of the Classiest

SS OU: Rexus vs Insult
SS OU: Tace vs suapah
SS OU: robjr vs blarghlfarghl
SS DOU: MajorBowman vs stax
SS LC: Osh vs Serene Grace
SM OU: Kebab mlml vs Relous
ORAS OU: Luigi vs Persephone
BW OU: Steve Angello vs Raiza
DPP OU: Raichy vs Excal
ADV OU: Zokuru vs Tamahome
GSC OU: McMeghan vs KratosMana
RBY OU: Kaz vs Amaranth

Wi-fi Wolfpack (8) vs (4) Dragonspiral Tyrants

SS OU: Star vs TDK
SS OU: 1 True Lycan vs blunder
SS OU: The Hallows vs Christo
SS DOU: SMB vs marilli
SS LC: Jytcampbell vs Luthier
SM OU: Welli0u vs CTC
ORAS OU: Sjneider vs CrashinBoomBang
BW OU: Pearl vs John W
DPP OU: BIHI vs The Grand Babido
ADV OU: BKC vs Gilbert arenas
GSC OU: sulcata vs gorgie
RBY OU: rozes vs Heroic Troller
 
56/84
SM OU: Trosko vs frisoeva - 60/40. Feel like trosko hasn't missed a beat since switching over to SM. Friso has been growing on me as the tour has progressed, but cant not go with the very proven troskoat
ORAS OU: reiku vs Erzengel - 55/45. I feel like Reiku plays better pokemon while Erzengel brings better teams. I'll favor the battler with more experience in this matchup.
BW OU: Posho vs SoulWind - 30/70. ;_; same old
ADV OU: pasy_g vs Blightbringerr - 45/55. From the games I've witnessed from these 2 this spl, I'm led to believe blights playing ceiling is higher. I still think he needs to be on a team-choice leash from mdrag, but I think he will play better than past.

SM OU: Gondra vs ima - 60/40. Glad ima is back to have another shot, but this may not be the opponent he wanted to start off versus. Gondra is on another level right now both with his play and team choices, and I actually think he might 9-0.
ORAS OU: xImRaptor vs Santu - 60/40. Both have been playing good pokemon. I always enjoy watching raptor play, he is very good. Santu is more quiet in how he wins games IMO.
BW OU: Twixtry vs Frania - 45/55. Last week my prediction was that I hadn't seen Frania BW so I'd go with his opponent, even if I think Frania has a higher playing ceiling. Well now it's the same deal but in Frania's favor over Twixtry.
ADV OU: Alexander. vs Fakes - 60/40. Both players have a "just picking what I feel like playing" team choice style -- the difference is alex only uses good teams while Fakes is a mixed bag. His play has generally been better in the weeks he was adving, too.

SM OU: Kebab mlml vs Relous - 55/45. I guess I have a case of "grass is greener" syndrome, because while I haven't really seen kebab do much notably, I haven't seen him take too many losses. Relous is having a real tough time this tour, so I'll go with the Less Tilted of the two.
ORAS OU: Luigi vs Persephone - 60/40. The idiot TD took a tough robbery last week in what I thought was a game he played pretty well. The idiot TD has been good this season anyway. Perseph has been avg-below avg., so I'll take the pretty comfy favorite.
BW OU: Steve Angello vs Raiza - 55/45. Idk man. Raiza has gotta be doing something wrong to have gotten to this record. Steve has a higher playing ceiling, so even while I want to say Raiza has been playing pretty well, I can't not favor Steve.
ADV OU: Zokuru vs Tamahome - 35/65. Tama back in business. I don't really understand Zok coming out of GSC after he has been winning, but the Tigers might just be giving him a chance to play a tier he likes more given that playoffs aren't reachable anymore.

SM OU: Welli0u vs CTC - 55/45. Small edge for the Well, because he is obviously very good but definitely on a come-down from a big high. CTC got a pretty wp win so I have more faith than the past 2 weeks.
ORAS OU: Sjneider vs CrashinBoomBang - 60/40. Sjneider is so heat both ingame and especially in prep (though IDK if this is ABR's doing or his own). CBB got back on the board, albeit through robbery in a game he looked weaker in. Sjneider's too hot not to pick.
BW OU: Pearl vs John W - 55/45. John W has managed to amass a better record than Pearl even though I think Pearl has been playing and building better. I will go with my opinions rather than the sheet.
ADV OU: BKC vs Gilbert arenas - 45/55. Highlight ADV game here for sure. Marcop is really doing his best to push the boundaries of ADV and playing well while doing so. BKC has been unstoppable playing wise. I'm gonna take the "upset" with marcop here, just going off of a hunch.
 

Mannat

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SS OU: Star vs TDK - Both of these guys are considered to be two of the strongest players in the SS pool right now, and I'm excited to see what they cook up to start the new metagame off right this week. I see both guys bringing a fairly honest balance/bulky offense with some bulky pivots and a couple strong offensive threats with relatively neutral matchup against each other, so the game's going to come down to who abuses their venues of offense better. I favor TDK in a game like this over Star because I feel like his timely aggression has been more on point this SPL, but I feel like this game can definitely go either way.

SS LC: Jytcampbell vs Luthier - Definitely my LC highlight game of the week, two close friends and great players that can take a game off of practically anyone. In last week's SS LC meta, I probably would've taken Jyt, but I think that the changes that came with home are going to throw him for a loop. While Jyt has the edge when it comes to his LC Ekans record and overall play (in my eyes), this is a brand new metagame and I favor Luthier's innovative ability to build a style that can abuse the new additions over Jyt's reliance on others for teams.

SM OU: Lopunny Kicks vs Updated Kanto - Punny was really struggling in SS OU these last couple weeks, but I think returning to his bread and butter in SM is going to help him right the ship here. Kanto is no slouch, but he's had a decidedly average SPL and while I think he'll end up finishing positive overall, he's going to be handed a loss here by Punny who's going to be excited to go back into SM OU.

ORAS OU: Sjneider vs CrashinBoomBang - CBB got back in the win column last week with a really funny win against Luigi and I still think he's an incredible player in spite of his record. On the other hand, neider's been churning out quality wins and I think he'll be able to pull off the upset against CBB with his execution combined with the pack's solid team choices that have panned out well so far this tour.

BW OU: zf vs Finchinator - Finch has been absolutely dominating here while zf has struggled mightily in BW, but zf righted the ship last week against Pearl and I believe he'll carry that momentum forward here. I feel like zf's willingness to get creative is going to be beneficial against Finch's orthodox style here. The way I see it, his teamchoice it will increase his odds of winning the game combined with his methodical play to the point that he can steal one from Finch.

BW OU: Posho vs SoulWind - Posho got very unlucky last week against frania with a CM Reuniclus that looked like it was set to sweep, and I think he's actually underrated by a ton of people in BW OU right now. SoulWind is the consensus best BW OU player out there right now and is going to be favored to take this one, but I think Posho's unorthodox team choice and solid execution is gonna let him squeak out a win against the best in the tier right now.
 
NYANPASU AND WELCOME BACK TO THE UNBIASED PREDICTIONS

Lessons learned in Week 6:

1. The Tigers are officially (well...99.9%) out. wrap it up.

2. The Wolfpack aren't out of it yet. One of the pre-season darlings faced basically a must-win situation last week against the Scooters. With series against the Cryonicles and Tyrants left on the schedule, the team absolutely needed to pull through last week. Despite the GOAT losing for the first time all tour, the squad managed to pull through. This week and the following one will be very hard for them, but things are still do-able.

3. DON'T COUNT OUT THE HOMETOWN RAIDERS LOL The Raiders miraculously sit at 7 points, despite having to start one of Earthworm or Posho every week, both of whom look absolutely WASHED A big reason for that is their surprising OU core, featuring a conglomeration of RANDOM users. Simia, vulpix03, and vai lusa have miraculously combined for a 9-3 record with a combined price tag of only 10.5k. Combined with the rejuvenation of GODSKO and the reliable talents of dice, as well as some major luck in the variance tiers, the team is primed to make the playoffs, especially with a date with the already-eliminated Tigers coming up in Week 8. I would be very surprised if regression didn't hit them soon, but with 3 weeks left in the regular season, anything's possible. CONGRATULATIONS TO LYCANS ON FINALLY BEING ON A WINNING TEAM. You deserve it. The funniest part of this is that he's been absolutely terrible and is currently benched LOOL jesus. That's how team tours go sometimes, bros.

4. The BIGs and Scooters are basically out. Both teams sit at 4 points. The BIGs have a hard schedule, with the Ruiners, Classiest, and Wolfpack all left on the docket. The Scooters still have to play the Tyrants and Cryonicles, and face the Ruiners in Week 9. I should just write eulogies already, honestly LOOOL this shit's a fucking wrap.

5. The BIGs avoided going 0-9 in LC, but they're still on track to go 0-9 in GSC. With a complete random in Haru currently being slotted into the tier, shit seems pretty grim. The Sharks' Doubles core is also 0-6, and they're 2-13 over the past 2 seasons. yikes....not much hope for that one either.

Indie Scooters (4) vs (6) Cryonicles

SS OU: Leo vs Eo Ut Mortus | there's absolutely 0 reason to believe that Leo is viable so. and eo's obviously fire
SS OU: Jayde vs Sacri' | this one's pretty close, but I think Sacri's a bit better at SS
SS OU: ZoroDark vs soulgazer | this one's close too. ZoroClick is a bit more proven outside of lower tiers, and SG is basically 1-1 this tour lol...miniscule edge
SS DOU: Memoric vs Tman
SS LC: tazz vs ggggd | pablo just keeps rolling. 9-0 seems a bit ridiculous, but I guess it's possible
SM OU: Lopunny Kicks vs Updated Kanto | Lop Kicks has been a shell of his normal sheet warrior self this tour. I've been on the Kanto bandwagon for a while, and I think he definitely has a shot to finish the regular season 6-3. decent edge
ORAS OU: Adri vs Garay oak | no idea, really. neither player inspires much confidence in oras ou. I have no idea who Adri even is, and Garay's struggled a fair amount.
BW OU: zf vs Finchinator | Finch is way more proven and is on a nice run this tour. I never drank the zf koolaid so.
DPP OU: Kevin Garrett vs shawyu 1313 | LOOOOOOOL dude KG ROLLED UP WITH A JOLTEON LAST WEEK when the fuck was the last time someone used that in dpp. There's no reason to believe he isn't washed right now. shawyu + Osgoode has been a fearsome duo so far, and I expect that to continue. decent edge in the variance madhouse
ADV OU: CyberOdin vs z0mOG | both these players are rather miraculously 5-1. I think z0m's been slightly luckier; Odin has had some good fortunate as well, though. Odin's way more experienced in this tier, and I've liked his plays a tad more. small edge
GSC OU: Fear vs Mr.E | Fear continues lucking people every week, and then soaking in the praise from his loyal band of followers who chant "FOAT FOAT FOAT" at every possible opportunity. I for one, will continue to point out this ridiculous behavior and am just patiently waiting for the day this guy finally gets lucked to shit by a real opponent. That being said, Fear's obviously better than MrE; I don't really think anyone is arguing that. This matchup is far closer than the masses think, but after factoring in each player's luck, it seems inconceivable that MrE is taking this one home.
RBY OU: Bedschibaer vs HML am | beds is more proven and has had a nice tour. minimal edge.

Team Raiders (5) vs (6) Stark Sharks

SS OU: Lusa vs teal6 | lusa's been better than expected this tour, but teal's had a pretty nice run too. I think he's definitely a better player
SS OU: Vulpix03 vs xray | speaking of surprises, this random ass vulpix guy is a big reason the raiders are tied fro 3rd right now. he has nothced back to back wins over Eo and Joey in must-win situations. He's clearly not to be slept on. All that being said, I just can't bold him against xray. xray's 5-1 record is definitely inflated by luck, but he's still been relatively solid and he's way more experienced. decent edge
SS OU: Simia vs bro fist | simia's another player who's been way better than anticipated; the fact that this dumbass Raiders OU core is working is crazy LOL That being said, I'm sure as hell not bolding him over john.
SS DOU: kaori vs Kiichikos
SS LC: LilyAC vs EviGaro | lily just lost to HODOR, so that really can't be a good sign LOOL EviGaro has crash landed back to earth after a rocket start. I thought Lily was better heading into the tour, as did pretty much everyone, and EviGaro's performance last week inspired pretty little confidence in her. I'll just take who I would have before the season. Small edge.
SM OU: Trosko vs frisoeva | GODSKO is on an unstoppable run now that he's freed from the confines of SS OU. I wholly expect him to go 7-2. Big edge.
ORAS OU: reiku vs Erzengel | reiku's shown some signs of life this tour, but Erzengel has randomly had some nice performances too I suppose. Still not really a believer, but he's done enough to be bolded in this matchup.
BW OU: Posho vs SoulWind | This would have been one of the most hyped matchups of the tour if it happened a few years ago. Alas, we're now in 2020, and Posho cannot seem to buy a win to save his life LOL I still think he can get some wins in BW, but this matchup is certainly not going to be one of those wins. SoulWind's been a monster this tour, and there's no reason to see him slowing down anytime soon. Massive edge
DPP OU: ToF vs DeepBlueC | ToF's 5-1 SOMEHOW LOL He's definitely due for regression, but DBC hasn't exactly been lighting the world on fire. I always thought he was overhyped anyway, and his performance this tour certainly does nothing to change that. Small edge.
ADV OU: pasy_g vs @Blightbringerr | Both these players were crazy levels of overpriced in the draft. I think pasy's been a hair better, but who knows really. Miniscule edge
GSC OU: dice vs Conflict | wow, this has to be the first time in like 32909300 weeks that I've bolded against dice LOOL Well, he's in GSC bros. He's definitely a talented player who could do well here, but I'm still a Conflict fan. He's had a rough tour, but I still believe in his abilities in his home tier. small edge.
RBY OU: MetalGro$$ vs Genesis7 | I guess metal has been slightly better...miniscule edge

Alpha Ruiners (6) vs (4) Ever Grande BIGS

SS OU: mncmt vs Sage | sage has predictably crashed back down to earth after a ridiculous 3-0 start. After her past performances, it's hard for me to have much confidence in her here. That being said, her opponent's also unproven as hell, and there's a reason why he wasn't bought to be a starter. no predict here.
SS OU: FLCL vs aim | this one should be interesting. I've always thought Joey was heat, but FLCL's been a bit better this tour. Miniscule edge
SS OU: Empo vs xtra$hine | ...........I SWEAR EMPO ALWAYS PLAYS CLOWNS AND I HAVE TO BOLD HIM LOL EVERY WEEK THIS HAPPENS WTF There's absolutely 0 reason to think that xtrashine is somehow gonna be a viable player in 2020 LOL He CRASHED HARD last Snake like wow, that was a disaster. Empo's been relatively bad this tour, but still. He's better. Decent edge, I guess.
SS DOU: qsns vs Ezrael | 19-4 past 3 tours. You know the drill.
SS LC: jake vs idiotfrommars | It's gonna take a lot more than 1 win to convince me that 2020 HODOR is suddenly viable in LC of all tiers LOL like...decent edge for zeb.
SM OU: Gondra vs ima | never really bought into the ima hype, and he's been bad this tour. Meanwhile, GOATDRA might be the best player this SPL LOOL Never thought I'd be saying that, jesus. Big edge
ORAS OU: xImRaptor vs Santu | Yeah, I have no idea LOL Both these players were like at similar levels for me going in, and both are currently 5-1 somehow. coinflip
BW OU: Twixtry vs Frania | idk who the hell frania even is. I've at least seen Twixtry play some meaningful games lately. small edge
DPP OU: Emeral vs GaryTheGengar | still don't really know who emeral is. Gary's a bit more proven I suppose. small edge in the variance madhouse
ADV OU: Alexander. vs Fakes | DAMN, now THIS is a close game LOL I like both these guys as players. Prinz has had a better tour, but he's only gone 2-1 in ADV against a pretty lackluster lineup of dekzeh / pasy_g / Teclis. Fakes, meanwhile, had to be subbed out the one week he was slated to play ADV. I've been on the Fakes bandwagon for a long time, and while I think Prinz is a pretty solid player himself, I think Fakes is slightly more skilled.
GSC OU: FriendOfMrGolem120 vs Haru | the BIGs juggling continues. Various sources on the BIGs have informed me that Haru did well in LC Ekans and managed to take down Fear in World Cup...so, I guess there's that LOL I still really have no reason to believe this filler character is gonna succeed here against a respectable opponent. big edge for fomg
RBY OU: Caetano93 vs Nails | both players have had a nice tour, but nails is more experienced with rby on the big stage and has had a solid tour. miniscule edge

Circus Maximus Tigers (2) vs (8) Congregation of the Classiest

SS OU: Rexus vs Insult | insult's fallen off hard since week 3, but I sure as hell am not bolding a random PU main against him.
SS OU: Tace vs suapah
SS OU: robjr vs blarghlfarghl | never really understood the rob hype outside of lower tiers; his showings in OU tiers have been pretty lackluster, and I've never really been impressed with him. He was definitely an overpay, as I said in my Tigers eulogy. blargh's had a solid enough tour, I suppose, and he's definitely way more accomplished in OU tiers. Decent edge.
SS DOU: MajorBowman vs stax
SS LC: Osh vs Serene Grace | Serene's been decent, but Osh is way more proven and has had a nice tour himself. Solid edge
SM OU: Kebab mlml vs Relous | relous has had an absolutely AWFUL tour LOOL jesus. That being said, I have no reason to think this random kebab dude is viable. like who even is this bro.
ORAS OU: Luigi vs Persephone | persephone hasn't inspired much confidence lately, and Luigi's put together a nice campaign.
BW OU: Steve Angello vs Raiza | raiza's definitely been better than his record, and I think he's displayed a decent amount of skill in this tournament. steve's been pretty bad, so.
DPP OU: Raichy vs Excal | excal's somehow 2-0, but it is the variance madhouse, so how much confidence does that really inspire? Both these players are pretty unviable, honestly. coinflip it
ADV OU: Zokuru vs Tamahome | Zokuru went from looking like one of the worst players in the tour in BW to absolutely washing people in GSC LOL Now, he finds himself in ADV. I really don't know if he can succeed here. Either way, he's going up against one of the best ADVers of the modern era so....yeah. wrap
GSC OU: McMeghan vs KratosMana
RBY OU: Kaz vs Amaranth | Tin's been better. small edge.

Wi-fi Wolfpack (3) vs (6) Dragonspiral Tyrants

SS OU: Star vs TDK | yeah, idk this one LOL Star's fire, and TDK's been relatively solid this tour. no real read, honestly.
SS OU: 1 True Lycan vs blunder | the baron's had a pretty nice tour, while blunder has underperformed. that being said, i fully expect blunder to finish the season strong. solid edge
SS OU: The Hallows vs Christo | still don't really think the hallows is viable. Christo's turned things around after a rough start, and we know he can farm in SPL when given the chance.
SS DOU: SMB vs marilli
SS LC: Jytcampbell vs Luthier | jyt started off his lc campaign with a win. that being said, I've still never really been impressed by him as a player. Luthier's way more proven here.
SM OU: Welli0u vs CTC | the well's had a pretty nice tour. The basedlord proved last week that he's not completely washed yet, but I have a hard time bolding him against someone who's been so remarkably consistent in this tier over the past 2 tours. solid edge
ORAS OU: Sjneider vs CrashinBoomBang | cbb has really struggled, and sjneider continues his winning ways. It's hard to go against ABR support in a situation like this, but I'm trusting CBB to end the tour at 4-5 so...
BW OU: Pearl vs John W | both these players have been pretty unimpressive this tour. john w is coming off of 2 straight wins, but considering that they were against jacob and steve angello, I don't really know how much that matters. Pearl's struggled a lot, but he's also way more proven. small edge I suppose
DPP OU: BIHI vs The Grand Babido | Both have had nice-ish runs. Still not really that much of a believer in either player at this stage, but they both have clearly displayed the ability to get wins in this meme tier. heist might be a hair better, but BIHI has BKC support so. coinflip.
ADV OU: BKC vs Gilbert arenas | BKC's looked like one of the best players in the tour. marcop turned things around lately and smashed roro with some innovative Tyranitar set. That being said, BKC's definitely more proven and is a better player when in-form. solid edge
GSC OU: sulcata vs gorgie | sulcata played relatively well last week, especially for the low standards he has set for himself during this tour. Alas, Fear's luck combined with his innovative Starmie set were just a bit too much. That being said, sulcata has still looked like an absolute train wreck in this tour. gorgie's exceeded all expectations, and while I do expect him to regress a fair amount, I think he's definitely favored to get to 5 wins here.
RBY OU: rozes vs Heroic Troller | rozes is clearly competent, but Troller's the best RBYer. rozes edged him out last time in World Cup, so there's that. small edge.
 

Finchinator

IT'S FINK DUMBASS
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BW Predicts

Posho (51) vs (49) SoulWind - SoulWind is the better player, but Posho has seemed to have the edge in this match-up historically, Posho is in a position where he has very little to lose which will enable some riskier teambuilding choices, and I struggle to believe anyone will go undefeated in this BW field, despite SoulWind clearly being the person to do so if anyone is. On paper, SoulWind is like 70/30 or 65/35 here, but I feel like Posho will find a way to take this. Now, keeping in mind my track record with these type of match-ups, Posho is probably cursed here, but hey fuck it.

Twixtry (55) vs (45) Frania - Frania made some nice moves last week, but I think he still should have lost without the critical hit. Twixtry has looked solid when playing in BW historically, doing well in SmogonTour and BW Cup at times. I think that he has the edge here in terms of overall playing skill in singles tiers and metagame experience. With that said, he is not the most experienced still, so I cannot give him too big of an edge.

Steve Angello (45) vs (55) Raiza - Both struggling here, but I give Raiza the edge. Neither has gotten particularly fortunate, but I think Raiza's teams are a bit more consistent and calculated, giving him more room to outplay to win and less room for nonsense. I think both are capable in the battle, with Steve even having a pretty high ceiling, but I view Raiza as more of a BW player and Steve as more of a reserve thrown into a hard tier at a hard time. Curious to see what we see team wise here.

Pearl (51) vs (49) John W - Neither has stood out all too much as of late. I think Pearl is due to bounce back just given how good of a player he is, but he has been struggling and John W picked up a win last week at least. Above all else, I really just expect a close game and two standard teams here, which is fairly refreshing.

Misc. Predicts

GSC OU: dice (51) vs (49) Conflict - dice won this match-up in fairly comical fashion last year. I think Conflict is still solid in GSC, but he may be susceptible to whatever nonsense dice comes up with, which I am honestly intrigued by. Favoring dice to repeat, but should be relatively close.

SS OU: FLCL (55) vs (45) aim - Both strong players, but I think FLCL is a bit better in SS. Last week, he had a rough match-up vs Rain, but barring any repeats of that I give him the slight edge. One of my favorite SS pairings of the week.

ORAS OU: Luigi (60) vs (40) Persephone - Luigi has looked pretty good thus far. Persephone is always interesting to spectate team wise, but sometimes his long-term strategy is not quite where it needs to be. Excited to see the teams here, but I favor Luigi giving what we have seen from both up to this point.

SS OU: Star (49) vs (51) TDK - Favorite SS game of the week. Leo vs Star last week was pretty great; it was a closely contested game where each side really only made one mistake and they took turns gaining momentum and making progress. TDK is more than capable of giving us a good game as well and I think that both of these guys will avoid the nonsense here, so I expect a close and enjoyable one. I favor TDK slightly because of his building prowess, but Star does have the support of ABR, so it's a very slight edge.

ADV OU: BKC (51) vs (49) Gilbert arenas - Another highlight in this series. Perhaps two of the best ADV players in the field. BKC has looked dominant throughout most of the season and Marcop has had a very strong couple of weeks, especially considering most of his losses have not been the most fortunate games. Anyway, I give BKC a slight edge, but Marcop could easily take this. He beat McMeghan last week in impressive fashion, but going back-to-back against McMeghan and BKC is a tall order. BKC has been playing without making many mistakes and using solid teams, showing that he is still near his peak. I honestly was conflicted, but I will give BKC the small advantage.
 
ORAS OU: Adri vs. Garay oak
Two guys who bring solid teams and play well. This will be a good battle with a strong possibility that an underrated Pokemon/set gets used effectively, and you can't ask for more than that.

DPP OU: Kevin Garrett vs. shawyu 1313
KG's teams are always nothing if not interesting, but Osgoode's have really been hitting the mark, and shawyu's been playing extremely well.

DPP OU: ToF vs. DeepBlueC
Both have been playing some great DPP, but Twist has really been in the zone. Gonna be a tightly contested one and I look forward to seeing how their styles clash.

GSC OU: dice vs. Conflict
A game that will showcase some of GSC's unique possibilities as well as some scathingly pithy comments. Flict has been in great form, but one of dice's death-defying refusals to switch at the right time might do him in.
 
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