Smogon Snake Draft III - Week 9

Status
Not open for further replies.

Hikari

is a Tournament Directoris a member of the Site Staffis a Forum Moderatoris a Community Contributoris a Tiering Contributoris a Contributor to Smogonis a Smogon Media Contributoris a Battle Simulator Admin Alumnusis an Administrator Alumnusis a Past SPL Champion
Moderator


Tournament Rules and General Guidelines



Matchups:



Terminus Taipans (6) vs (4) Celadon City Cobras

OU: Twixtry vs dice
OU: ABR vs FMG
OU: le LLiolae vs Eo Ut Mortus
OU: ima vs Jytcampbell
DOU: Ezrael vs Tman
UU: robjr vs Accelgor
RU: Alpha Rabbit vs UltraBallz
NU: Sjneider vs Finchinator
PU: Teddeh vs @bouff
LC: jake vs Kingler12345


Ambrette Astrotias (6) vs (3) Black City Mambas

OU: Updated Kanto vs Empo
OU: Cdumas vs Christo
OU: ZoroDark vs PDC
OU: Tamahome vs Rexus
DOU: Mint16 vs xray
UU: @Santu vs Sam I Yam
RU: HarrisIsAwesome vs Averardo
NU: Jrdn vs ict
PU: false vs Jarii
LC: Shrug vs LilyAC


Rumble Hall Rattlers (2) vs (5) Shinto Ruin Serpents

OU: TPP vs BKC
OU: frisoeva vs yjh971203
OU: rozes vs yoppie
OU: GaryTheGengar vs Sacri'
DOU: Spurrific vs Demantoid
UU: SoulWind vs Corckscrew
RU: Gondra vs DurzaOffTopic
NU: Kushalos vs 0NI
PU: Reje vs Star
LC: august vs BurntZebra


Lanakila Nagas (7) vs (3) Sky Tower Lindworms

OU: Tricking vs -Tsunami-
OU: Jimmy Turtwig vs Lopunny Kicks
OU: Kebab mlml vs Relous
OU: ramboss vs xImRaptor
DOU: Nails vs Stratos
UU: Adaam vs HT
RU: Kink vs Ajna
NU: Ren-chon vs trash
PU: talkingtree vs Croven
LC: Osh vs tko


Berry Forest Bushmasters (3) vs (7) Lake of Rage Leviathans

OU: SPACE FORCE meeps vs Welli0u
OU: SMB vs Tace
OU: HSA vs Corazan
OU: Amane Misa vs Insult
DOU: z0mOG vs emforbes
UU: passion vs Charmflash
RU: blarghlfarghl vs roman
NU: yeezyknows vs Garay oak
PU: Taskr vs Xiri
LC: tazz vs Luthier
Deadline for LC and DOU games will be October 26th, 10:00 PM EST.


For the rest, deadline will be October 27th, 10:00 PM EST.
 
Last edited:
before our season ends i just wanna slurp a bit (cringe) and give a massive shoutout to vivalospride for being inordinately helpful when it came to builds and tests and generally shooting down/editing me n misa's garbage concepts while simultaneously dealing with our repellent personalities. our record was p dick (mostly cuz of me) but it's def worse without you.

means a lot big homie.

go bushmasters!
 

-Tsunami-

Banned deucer.
is the 2nd Smogon Classic Winneris a Past SPL and WCoP Champion
To absolutely everyone's surprise, my beloved Lindworms who were forced into the precarious position of having to start an exiled player in a desperate attempt to save their season, are STILL ALIVE! We did have one casualty this week, though, as the Mambas met their demise at the hands of the Bakers, who are somehow tearing everyone to shreds this tour. Let's begin.



The Mambas hoped to have a strong showing this tour on the backs of their two star players, Empo and Christo. Empo had a massive amount of hype surrounding him coming into tournament. Anyone who has read my predictions knows that I find Empo a bit overrated, but taking him 3rd overall was justifiable in this weak player pool. He currently sports a 5-3 record, which is pretty solid. Christo was the team's next pick, and was in my mind, the best UUer without a doubt. This is saying quite a bit considering that UU was the home to a lot of threatening players such as robjr and TDK. He uncharacteristically struggled (for his standards), in this tournament, currently possessing a mediocre 4-4 record. After dominating the competition in past tours, this has to be considered a bit of a let down. Without their superstars lighting up the scene, the team needed their other weaker slots to come through. Unfortunately, they were unable to carry the load, leading to a Week 8 exit. After the draft, hopes were not particularly high for the Mambas. I saw them as a mediocre team at best, and they were ranked last in the Power Rankings. So, it's not like their early exit is that surprising.

The team's 3rd round pick was spent on xray, which was quite a confusing move to me and many others. As I'm sure you all know, ORAS OU is not actually in Snake 3, so that left xray to battle it out in SM OU. xray, in my opinion, is an amazing ORAS player who is markedly less skilled in SM. Although he's probably still decent enough, taking him Round 3 was quite a perplexing decision. He currently possesses a 4-4 record, which isn't terrible, but for a Round 3 selection, you would have expected a bit more. The rest of the OU core was even more...ambitious. They decided to take marcop in Round 8...which was very strange considering that he had hardly any SM results. It would be one thing if they selected him in Round 8 to be a benchwarmer, like other teams did with Bouff and Jarii, but starting him and expecting some good results was a bit insane. He did end up winning 2 games, but he also had a very laughable showing against Lopunny Kicks, where he caught Indigo Plateau-syndrome and choked away a 100/0 matchup. For his draft billing, though, his performance wasn't awful. To the start the season, the team inserted Eeveeto into their last OU slot. He actually managed to go positive with a 3-2 record, so he was worth the late flyer. Their middling OU performance was surprisingly given a boost by an unlikely source: resident crust PDC. PDC managed to Shell Smash and go 3-1, helping their team stay afloat in the later weeks of the season. By far the strangest thing about this draft was the selection of Rexus...in Round 4? People had hyped Rexus up as a PU godfather type figure before the draft, but it appears as thought the Mambas intended to utilize him in OU, according to the Power Rankings anyway. Now, I think we all know how insane it is to toss a random scrub PU mainer into OU, especially after drafting him in Round 4, and expecting good results. He qualified for OLT, so that must have had something to do with it. Now, we haven't even gotten to the craziest part of this selection. This man played a grand total of 2 GAMES LMAO WHAT ARE WE DOING PEOPLE!?!?!?! LOLOLOL HELLO bro what LMAO It's one thing to reach for some goon ass loser in Round 4 and have him play like a headless chicken and end like 0-6 or some shit but HOW DOES YOUR ROUND 4 PICK ONLY PLAY 2 GAMES LMAO WHAT IS HAPPENING NO SHIT THEY'RE OUT HKSHDKFHJDSF LOLOLOLO THAT'S IMPOSSIBLE. I've participated in Smogon Tournaments for the past 7 years, but this is easily one of the strangest things I've seen. He must have died or something LOL jesus

The lower tiers failed to carry the team, but they did put forth some decent performances. ict predictably ended up with a relatively solid 5-3 record. Late flyer LilyAC lived up to some of her hype and currently sports a cool 5-3 record as well. Sam I Yam also managed to go positive with a 4-3 record. These performances helped keep the team alive; they lacked any real standout performers, but most of the team did relatively decently. Human was not one of these players LOL The long-time veteran fell flat on his face this tournament, crawling his way to a 1-7 record, including losing the game that eliminated the Mambas from contention. Bad looks. The last lower tier player was Averardo, who had almost no hype coming into the tour and predictably ended negative. 3-5 isn't that bad for a desperation pick, however. I say 'desperation pick' because Averardo was a completely unplanned buy. The team's draft had apparently hit quite a snag, as evidenced by the following PM I received in the middle of the 8th round:



Yeah...I think that log really foreshadowed the disaster that was to come for the Mambas.

Overall, the Mambas were a relatively unhyped team that basically lived up to their preseason expectations. They were not eliminated until the End of Week 8, which was about what I expected heading into the tournament. Their roster really lacked starpower, and the few big names that they did have failed to come through with phenomenal performances. Also, the Rexus situation was clearly a disaster LMAO I have no fucking idea what the hell happened there, but that surely screwed them over quite a bit.

Now, let's move on to the UNBIASED PREDICTIONS

We start off with the most pivotal matchup of the week. If the Cobras win, they were locked into a playoff spot. Any other result opens the door for other teams to take over, though. Will Finchinator and his team crash into a "large retaining wall" yet again, or will US Midwest pull through for once.

Terminus Taipans (5) vs (4) Celadon City Cobras

OU: Twixtry vs dice | dice has struggled a bit lately, but it's not like Twixtry is impressive lol. dice is way more talented.
OU: ABR vs FMG | FMG's hyped, but come on bros it's ABR lol what else needs to be said
OU: le LLiolae vs Eo Ut Mortus | LLL had a nice OLT run, but Eo's way more proven. He's been on a tear too jesus
OU: ima vs Jytcampbell | Never been a big Jyt fan, as I'm sure you guys know by now LMAO ima's been solid enough, and while I'm not a real believer yet, he's good enough to be favored here.
DOU: Ezrael vs Tman
UU: robjr vs Accelgor | rob finally got his mojo back after catching Indigo Plateau-syndrome for the first month of the tour LOL Accel's had some decent results, but I'm still pretty skeptical. He also got bodied by a DOUBLES MAIN last week so.
RU: Alpha Rabbit vs UltraBallz | Still don't really trust Rabbit, and while UB has had his struggles, he's definitely more talented than this random ass mainer.
NU: Sjneider vs Finchinator | Sjneider has magically managed to put together a decent season, but come on LOL Finch gets results even in BW OU against way more talented players. I've bolded him every week so not going to stop now.
PU: Teddeh vs Raiza | Raia started off strong before proving that he probably is just another garbdicks mainer LMAO what's new bros? Teddeh's way better, obviously
LC: jake vs Kingler12345 | LMFAO KINGLERS 1-7 LOOL HOW WHAT ARE YOU DOING BRO? YOU'RE IN LC!!! IT'S NOT EVEN LIKE YOU'RE PLAYING SOME WORLD BEATER EVERY WEEK LMAO MAN CAN'T BEAT RANDOMS LIKE SHRUG BRO jesus fuck I don't believe that Kingler is THIS bad...he's like a lifetime mediocre player on the sheet. He's definitely not good, though, as anyone with half a brain could have told you before the tournament. Zeb's somehow turned into jesus christ too so guess the 1-8 is a lock lol

Ambrette Astrotias (6) vs (3) Black City Mambas

OU: Updated Kanto vs Empo | I've been shorting Empo the entire season and Kanto seems to have rediscovered his SPL 9 holy water. Man's 6-2 LOL jesus. Small edge
OU: Cdumas vs Christo | You all know how much of a Christo fan I am, but lOL this is OU against Sheet God Cdumas. Yeah...
OU: ZoroDark vs PDC | PDC is determined to prove that he isn't crust, and has rather magically gotten 3 wins so far this tournament. I rate ZoroClick a bit more highly right now, though.
OU: Tamahome vs Rexus | ..a;lfkfldakldsk fldklakfl kLMAJFK JKJK LOOOOL SPEAK OF THE DEVIL WHAT R WE DOING? REXUS? LMFAO HELLO WHYS HE IN NOW AFTER THEY'RE OUT LMFAO ROUND 4 PICK PLAYING HIS 3RD GAME AFTER THE TEAM IS ELIMINATED LMAO YOU CAN'T MAKE THIS UP my god bro. As for the matchup itself...lifetime spreadsheet warrior against some garbdicks PU main. Yeah. Big edge.
DOU: Mint16 vs xray
UU: Lycans vs Sam I Yam | Lycans has failed to reach the lofty expectations that come with smashing the sheet two tours in a row. I definitely don't believe in this random ass PU mainer, though.
RU: HarrisIsAwesome vs Averardo | We're bolding Averardo LMAO what a disaster. He has 3 wins, though, and Harris looked like a complete aids sack in SPL LMAO jesus. Miniscule edge in the coinflip.
NU: Jrdn vs ict jrdn is another goon who managed to magically put together some wins this year. ice tea is a way better player. Decent edge.
PU: false vs Jarii | God this is one of the worst feeling bolds of all time LMFAO BOLDING FALSE IS A CARDINAL SIN OH MY GOD IM DYING!!! BRO...IT'S JARII THO LMAO HAVE WE WATCHED PAST SPLS? SPL 7 FOR EXAMPLE? jesus fuck I sure as hell am not going anywhere near Jarii. false sacrificed the same animals as HT or some shit what the fuck this man's POSITIVE?! LMAO that's enough for a miniscule edge in this battle of clown ass retards
LC: Shrug vs LilyAC | Lily's been decent enough, I guess. Had more hype coming into the tour than someone who was drafted to be a sub. Small edge.


Rumble Hall Rattlers (4) vs (3) Shinto Ruin Serpents

OU: TPP vs BKC | bro LMAO jesus 0-5 vs 1-7. what a fucking disaster. TPP has definitely gotten unlucky, but still man. Gonna trust the goat to at least get 2 wins LOL
OU: frisoeva vs YJH | This random goon has been pretty good this tour. I don't think yjh is good so.
OU: rozes vs yoppie | LOL rozes definitely isn't good at OU dude I don't even know if he's played it. yoppie is decently hyped I guess so whatever.
OU: GaryTheGengar vs Sacri' | Did you guys watch Gary play PU? Did you? ok LMAO if you're losing to OU losers you definitely are not winning in OU
DOU: Spurrific vs Demantoid
UU: SoulWind vs Corckscrew | LOOOL DICKSCREW IN AGAIN VROS LOLOLO What a fucking wash. jesus. giant edge
RU: Gondra vs DurzaOffTopic | Gondra's been so fucking bad man LMAO jesus fuck he caught fucking aids this tour. Durza's had some moments, but he's still very unproven. This would have been an easy bold for Gondra before the tour, but now, it's a no predict.
NU: Kushalos vs 0NI | The chef is fire. 0ni has surprised, btu he's still unproven.
PU: Reje vs Star | I don't even know who the fuck this is LMAO big edge
LC: august vs BurntZebra | yo fuck it. Zebra has struggled a bit. august and cbb gonna tryhard make some dumbass team and get matchup. easy wins

Lanakila Nagas (4) vs (5) Sky Tower Lindworms

OU: Tricking vs -Tsunami- | ....LMAO ARE YOU SERIOUS I HAVE TO PLAY THE GOAT CLICKING? LMFAO bro. I'm in pretty bad form, although I did beat Tama a few weeks ago LOL I'm definitely crust, though, and Clicking is establishing himself as one of the best players on the site. Massive edge.
OU: Jimmy Turtwig vs Lopunny Kicks | Not the biggest Jimmy beliver in new gens. Spreadsheet warrior Lop Kicks is better
OU: Kebab mlml vs Relous | this random ass kebab clown is back LMAO whatever bros. Relous has been on a tear. Big edge
OU: ramboss vs xImRaptor | raptor has been on fire this tournament jesus LOL ramboss has been fine, I guess, but gonna go with the hot hand
DOU: Nails vs Stratos
UU: Adaam vs HT | HT is 6-2 dkslkfldskflds klkalSK L;K' S; lmfao aj HOW LOOOOL IMPOSSIBLE BRO NA what a fluke LOOL Adaam won Slam, so he's clearly talented. Just off that, gonna give him the edge here. No way HT beats a competent player 2 weeks in a row.
RU: Kink vs Ajna | Kink's apparently salty that I keep bolding his opponent despite the fact that he's been on Smogon for like 6 years and was never drafted to start in a team tour until this one I believe? The ego you get after beating up on a bunch of clown ass losers in RU for 1 tour bro LMAO He's been surprisingly good, but Ajna's way more proven.
NU: Ren-chon vs trash | trash smashed Rodri R1, and Ren-chon hasn't really accomplished anything. besides mean tleksj1 or some bullshit lMAO trash also beat snow, but we're not counting that game so. miniscule edge.
PU: Ktütverde vs Croven | .... lDKSAJFK JLOL OH MY GOD THE DESPERATION LMAO MY BOY SPIDERMAN REALLY DIED BROS LMAO or maybe they just realized he was unviable. With the season on the line, there's a fucking DOUBLES MAIN in pu LOOOOL you can't make this up. my god. Big edge.
LC: Osh vs tko | tko has struggled a lot this tour, and Osh has been bodybagging everyone. Big edge.


Berry Forest Bushmasters (1) vs (6) Lake of Rage Leviathans

OU: SPACE FORCE meeps vs Welli0u | the well has been surprisingly solid, and meeps has struggled. This is also OU so
OU: SMB vs Tace | Doubles main in OU. next.
OU: HSA vs Corazan | Corazan's done well, but he's also been very lucky. HSA had a solid campaign before this tour, but he's looked pretty lost. no read.
OU: Amane Misa vs Insult | probably garbage UU mainer in OU. next.
DOU: z0mOG vs emforbes
UU: passion vs Charmflash | oml PASSION is in. passion has potential, but Charm's been really good over his past 2 tours. Hard not to like his chances.
RU: blarghlfarghl vs roman | LOOOOL I said I would bold blargh if he went in a lower tier and lo and behold LMAO roman's had some surprisingly nice results, but he's still very unproven. blargh is probably better? I guess?
NU: yeezyknows vs Garay oak | yeezy's been a bit unlucky. Garay has really struggled, but he was hyped a lot coming into the tour, and has had some nice results in the past. Gonna trust him to end on a high note.
PU: Taskr vs Xiri | Xiri is 6-2 LOL idk how but sure bro. He can have his token edge off that.
LC: Serene Grace vs Luthier | Luthier's done fairly well so.
 

Luthier

Don’t get mad, get even.
is a Smogon Social Media Contributoris a Tiering Contributoris a defending Smogon Snake Draft Champion
I just wanted to give my two cents on the playoff scenarios. I'm sure everyone wants to know what needs to happen for each team to make playoffs but I had just a slight bit of time to do the dirty work so here it is:
Btw, these are the only teams that are in consideration rn
Screen Shot 2019-10-20 at 11.12.36 PM.png


Taipans and Nagas have 100% clinched a spot

Leviathans
  • Win or tie vs the Bushmasters clinches
  • Assuming that the Leviathans lose the following must happen for them to clinch:
    • If at least 2 of the following 3 happen, then the Leviathans must not have collapsed a +12 BD on the Cobras or Astrotias
      • Cobras tie or win
      • Astrotias win
      • Lindworms win
    • If the Leviathans lose 0-10 then 2 of the following 3 CANNOT happen:
      • Cobras win
      • Astrotias win
      • Lindworms win by 7-3 or better
Cobras
  • Win and in
  • Assuming that the Cobras tie against the Taipans, these CANNOT happen in order for them to qualify
    • Astrotias win
    • Lindworms win by 7-3 or better
  • Assuming that the Cobras lose against the Taipans, they are out

Astrotias
  • Assuming that the Astrotias win against the Mambas these need to happen:
    • Need to jump the +12 BD difference from the Leviathans OR
    • The Cobras lose or tie
    • The Astrotias also need to gain a better BD than the Lindworms, assuming that the Lindworms win against the Nagas
  • Assuming that the Astrotias tie against the Mambas:
    • Cobras need to lose
    • Lindworms tie or lose
  • Assuming that the Astrotias lose against the Mambas:
    • gg

Lindworms
  • Assuming that the Lindworms win against the Nagas:
    • Need the jump the +12 BD difference from the Leviathans OR
    • The Cobras lose or tie [tie sends it into tiebreaker]
    • The Lindworms also need to gain a better than the Astrotias, assuming that the Astrotias win against the Mambas
  • Assuming that the Lindworms tie against the Nagas:
    • Cobras need to lose [4-6 loss sends into tiebreaker - anything worse than that sends Lindworms into playoffs] AND
    • Astrotias need to lose
  • Assuming that the Lindworms lose against the Nagas:
    • gg
Mambas
  • The Mambas need to win with the following aid:
    • Cobras lose
    • Lindworms tie or lose

Please do let me know if anything is wrong, I'll edit the post. Gl to everyone trying to qualify and as always

GO LEVIATHANS
 
Last edited:
let's get these RU predicts rolling baybee

Alpha Rabbit (Taipans, 4-4) vs UltraBallz (Cobras, 3-5): very minimal edge to UB here, but I feel like he'll show up with a win here to help the Cobras edge into the top 4. 49-51, put on a good show lads.

HarrisIsAwesome (Astrotias, 1-0) vs Averardo (Mambas, 3-5): Averardo has been very shaky as of late, and I've got the utmost faith in Harris to put the Astrotias' RU score on his back and finish it 4-5. His week 8 showing was something of a high note, so bolding him feels right. However, underestimating the pizza is never good. Watch for upset here as these two brawl to push their teams into contention. 55-45.

Gondra (Rattlers, 0-4) vs DurzaOffTopic (Serpents, 2-3): both players are just fighting for their sheet records, but Gondra's dismal showing doesn't seem to give any indication it'll be a match for Durza's decent skill and very good metagame knowledge. got a lot of faith in mister off topic this week. 40-60.

Kink (Nagas, 6-2) vs Ajna (Lindworms, 5-3): the two best players in RU right now by a pretty damn large margin clash in what should be an epic week 9 showing, and my match of the week. That being said, very very slight edge to King RU. Ajna is still as ruthless as ever though, and I'm sure it woulnd't be any surprise to see him take the dub here. Regardless, this game looks incredibly exciting. This is another one of those "RU fan or not, watch this game, it will be very good" matches. Ajna if you don't ping me when you play I'm going to beat your ass 51-49

blarghlfarghl (Bushmasters, 4-2) vs roman (Leviathans, 3-1) roman wants every win for his sheet record and to ensure the Levis make playoffs, and despite blargh looking pretty good this snake, it's a bit of an edge to roman here. I feel like his prep game and metagame knowledge could prove too much for blargh, but regardless, this game looks pretty close and exciting. 45-55.

gogo astrotias
 
won, gg man

thanks to obi/flcl for drafting me and having faith even as it became clear I was out of my element; you guys are great leaders and it kills me more than I can put into words to have let you down so catastrophically. obi especially went the extra mile to help out and I genuinely appreciate it. thanks to star and sacri for dishing with me, you guys make some phenomenal teams and showed how terrific you are as players. I also must mention nat, whose confident self-sufficient approach to the game I quite like, and zesty, who might be the single most insane teambuilder I've ever witnessed.

finally I'd like to mention durza whose triumphant rise from the abject poverty of the ritz inspires me to be a better man
 
Last edited:

TPP

Unspoken Words
is a Tutoris a Top Team Rateris a Community Leaderis a Community Contributor
RMT Leader
gg and thanks for a fun game BKC. I'm glad I was able to finish off my first tour against an opponent as great as you.

I wanted to thank everyone, from my teammates to my friends to whoever, for supporting me and helping me with my first time playing in a major tournament. I'm not kidding when I say I thought I had a 99.99% chance of going undrafted, but I lucked out and got drafted, and then got even luckier since I ended up getting to play some games too. I had a great time on the Rumblers and love each and every single one of my teammates and wish nothing but the best for them. I also love and appreciate having CBB, Specs, pak, Paraplegic, slurmy-chan, altariaoffense, and Ophion to help us out. You all were fantastic and I sincerely want to say thanks for the memories. I'd do individual shoutouts, but this post would easily hit over 100K characters, so I'll just do it in private.

I also wanted to say thanks to all of my opponents for being respectful and formidable. Regardless of how unlucky or nervous I got, I had a good time playing against you all and I wish you all good luck with your future endeavors.

I know I've been fairly unlucky in most of my games, but I have zero intention of blaming anything other than myself for my atrocious record. I didn't play any of those games perfectly and therefore I don't have the right to say I only lost because I was unlucky. I'll try and learn from my mistakes to return as a stronger player, and I'd be more than happy if anyone wants to help me with that. I'll be around to help out whoever needs anything, whether it's mons-related or irl, but I'm afraid to say my battling days are done for now.

Anyways, sorry for the long post, sorry for not meeting expectations others had for me, and good luck to everyone this week and to those that make playoffs! Thanks for having me and I hope you all have a nice day n_n
 
Smogon Snake Draft III Playoff Conditions
I made a similar post albeit for a smaller tour, and due to TonyFlygon's insistence, I figure that I'd write a post for the conditions for each team to make playoffs. Probabilities are also calculated for each team, but with the assumption that each match can be assumed to be a fair coin flip. Thanks to Luthier for providing a baseline for my calculations!

Note that these are based off of the beginning of the week.

Here are the current standings:
Rank:Team:Record (Points):
1Terminus Taipans5 - 2 - 1 (11) | +14
2Lanakila Nagas5 - 2 - 1 (11) | +4
3Lake of Lage Leviathans5 - 3 - 0 (10) | +12
4Celadon City Cobras4 - 3 - 1 (9) | +0
5Ambrette Astrotias4 - 4 - 0 (8) | +0
6Sky Tower Lindworms3 - 3 - 2 (8) | -2
7Black City Mambas3 - 4 - 1 (7) | +2
8Berry Forest Bushmasters3 - 4 - 1 (7) | -10
9Rumble Hall Rattlers2 - 5 - 1 (5) | -4
10Shinto Ruin Serpents1 - 5 - 2 (4) | -16
Analysis for each team:


Points: 11 | Differential: +14

With 11 points and an incredible differential, the Terminus Taipans are guaranteed to be in the playoffs.

Chances: 100%
Points: 11 | Differential: +4

While the Nagas don't have the incredible differential that the Taipans have accumulated, the Nagas with 11 points are guaranteed for playoffs as well.

Chances: 100%
Points: 10 | Differential: +12
With an amazing differential and 10 points, the Leviathans have a very good chance for playoffs. However, there is still a slim chance that the Leviathans do not make it.

Levithans playoff conditions:
  • (193/512) Win: Winning secures playoffs with 12 points
  • (231/1024) Tie: A tie is also guaranteed for playoffs with 11 points
  • (193/512) Loss: A loss puts the Leviathans in risk of being out
    • (193/512) Cobras Win, leaving 1 spot left
      • (319/512) Astrotias Tie/Lose, leaving 1 spot left
        • (319/512) Lindworms Tie/Lose, meaning Leviathans are in
        • (765/2048) Lindworms win but do not increase their BD enough, Leviathans are in
        • (285/98816) Lindworms win and achieve same BD as Leviathans (0-10, 7-3 / 1-9, 8-2 / 2-8, 9-1 / 3-7, 10-0)
          • (1/2) Leviathans win tiebreaker
      • (8925/24704) Astrotias win but do not increase their BD enough, leaving 1 spot left
        • (319/512) Lindworms Tie/Lose, meaning Leviathans are in
        • (765/2048) Lindworms win but do not increase their BD enough, Leviathans are in
        • (285/98816) Lindworms win and achieve same BD as Leviathans (0-10, 7-3 / 1-9, 8-2 / 2-8, 9-1 / 3-7, 10-0)
          • (1/2) Leviathans win tiebreaker
      • (4845/395264) Astrotias win and tie the Leviathans in BD (0-10, 6-4 / 1-9, 7-3 / 2-8, 8-2 / 3-7, 1-9 / 4-6, 10-0)
        • (319/512) Lindworms Tie/Lose, meaning Leviathans need to tiebreak the Astrotias
          • (1/2) Leviathans win tiebreaker
        • (765/2048) Lindworms win but do not increase their BD enough,Leviathans need to tiebreak the Astrotias
          • (1/2) Leviathans win tiebreaker
        • (285/98816) Lindworms win and achieve same BD as Leviathans (0-10, 7-3 / 1-9, 8-2 / 2-8, 9-1 / 3-7, 10-0)
          • (1/3) Leviathans win tiebreaker
    • (319/512) Cobras Tie/Lose, leaving 2 spots left still
      • (319/512) Astrotias Tie/Lose, Leviathans are in
      • (8925/24704) Astrotias win but do not increase their BD enough, Leviathans are in
      • (4845/395264) Astrotias win and tie the Leviathans in BD (0-10, 6-4 / 1-9, 7-3 / 2-8, 8-2 / 3-7, 1-9 / 4-6, 10-0)
        • (319/512) Lindworms Tie/Lose, meaning Leviathans are in
        • (765/2048) Lindworms win but do not increase their BD enough, Leviathans are in
        • (285/98816) Lindworms win and achieve same BD as Leviathans (0-10, 7-3 / 1-9, 8-2 / 2-8, 9-1 / 3-7, 10-0)
          • (2/3) Leviathans win tiebreaker
        • (211/395264) Lindworms win and achieve a better BD than the Leviathans, Leviathans have to tiebreak the Astrotias
          • (1/2) Leviathans win tiebreaker
      • (7/2048) Astrotias win and have a better BD than the Leviathans, leaving 1 spot left:
        • (319/512) Lindworms Tie/Lose, meaning Leviathans are in
        • (765/2048) Lindworms win but do not increase their BD enough, Leviathans are in
        • (285/98816) Lindworms win and achieve same BD as Leviathans (1-9, 8-2 / 2-8, 9-1 / 3-7, 10-0)
          • (1/2) Leviathans win tiebreaker
Chances: 1075321388469/1099511627776 = 97.7999%
Points: 9 | Differential: +0

The Cobras have 9 points but only a +0 differential; if they win they're in, but a tie can put them in jeopardy of making playoffs, while a loss means they are out.

Playoff Conditions:
  • (193/512) Win: Winning secures playoffs with 11 points
  • (231/1024) Tie: A tie creates situations where the Cobras do not make playoffs, since the Leviathans are guaranteed to be ahead, leaving 1 spot left
    • (319/512) Astrotias Tie/Lose, leaving 1 spot
      • (319/512) Lindworms Tie/Lose, Cobras are in
      • (105/512) Lindworms win 6-4, and the Cobras need to tiebreak the Lindworms
        • (1/2) Cobras win tiebreak
  • (193/512) Loss: A loss means the Cobras are out, since one of the Astrotias/Mambas will overtake them
Chances: 257126095/536870912 = 47.8935%
Points: 8 | Differential: +0

The Astrotias have it a bit worse than the Cobras, since they don't have a guarantee to be in even with a win.

Playoff Conditions:
  • (193/512) Win: A win puts the Astrotias in a pretty good spot, but not necessarily guaranteed to make it in, since it has to compete with the Leviathans, Cobras, and Lindworms
    • (319/512) Leviathans Win/Tie, leaving 1 spot
      • (319/512) Cobras Tie/Lose, still leaving 1 spot
        • (319/512) Lindworms Tie/Lose, Astrotias are in
        • (104811/1048576) Lindworms win, but don't get enough BD to overtake the Astrotias
        • (7765/262144) Lindworms achieve the same BD as Astrotias (6-4, 7-3 / 7-3, 8-2 / 8-2, 9-1 / 9-1, 10-0), and there is a tiebreak
          • (1/2) Astrotias win tiebreak
    • (193/512) Leviathans lose, leading to some complicated scenarios
      • (193/512) Cobras Win, leaving 1 spot left
        • (4845/148996) Astrotias win and tie the Leviathans in BD (0-10, 6-4 / 1-9, 7-3 / 2-8, 8-2 / 3-7, 1-9 / 4-6, 10-0)
          • (319/512) Lindworms Tie/Lose, meaning Leviathans need to tiebreak the Astrotias
            • (1/2) Astrotias win tiebreaker
          • (765/2048) Lindworms win but do not increase their BD enough, Leviathans need to tiebreak the Astrotias
            • (1/2) Astrotias win tiebreaker
          • (285/98816) Lindworms win and achieve same BD as Leviathans (0-10, 7-3 / 1-9, 8-2 / 2-8, 9-1 / 3-7, 10-0)
            • (1/3) Astrotias win tiebreaker
        • (7/772) Astrotias win and beat the Leviathans in BD
          • (319/512) Lindworms Tie/Lose, Astrotias are in
          • (104811/1048576) Lindworms win but don't achieve enough BD
          • (7765/262144) Lindworms achieve the same BD as Astrotias (6-4, 7-3 / 7-3, 8-2 / 8-2, 9-1 / 9-1, 10-0), and there is a tiebreak
            • (1/2) Astrotias win tiebreak
      • (319/512) Cobras Tie/Lose, leaving 2 spots left still
        • (35700/37249) Astrotias win but do not increase their BD enough to beat the Leviathans, leaving 1 spot left
          • *(104811/1048576) Lindworms win, but don't get enough BD to overtake the Astrotias
          • *(7765/262144) Lindworms achieve the same BD as Astrotias (6-4, 7-3 / 7-3, 8-2 / 8-2, 9-1 / 9-1, 10-0), and there is a tiebreak
            • (1/2) Astrotias win tiebreak
        • (4845/148996) Astrotias win and tie the Leviathans in BD (0-10, 6-4 / 1-9, 7-3 / 2-8, 8-2 / 3-7, 1-9 / 4-6, 10-0)
          • (319/512) Lindworms Tie/Lose, meaning Astrotias are in
          • (765/2048) Lindworms win but do not increase their BD enough, Astrotias are in
          • (285/98816) Lindworms win and achieve same BD as Leviathans (0-10, 7-3 / 1-9, 8-2 / 2-8, 9-1 / 3-7, 10-0)
            • (2/3) Astrotias win tiebreaker
          • (211/395264) Lindworms win and achieve a better BD than the Astrotias, Leviathans have to tiebreak the Astrotias
            • (1/2) Astrotias win tiebreaker
        • (7/772) Astrotias win and have a better BD than the Leviathans, and they are in
  • (231/1024) Tie: A tie means the Leviathans are ahead, leaving 1 spot left
    • (193/512) Cobras Lose: The Cobras need to lose or the Astrotias are out
      • (319/512) Lindworms Tie/Lose: Lindworms need to tie/lose
        • (1023/1024) Bushmasters don't win 10-0: Bushmasters not winning 10-0 means the Astrotias are in
        • (1/1024) Bushmasters do win 10-0, leading to a tiebreak between the Astrotias and Bushmasters
          • (1/2) Astrotias win the tiebreak
  • (193/512) Loss: A loss means the Astrotias are out
*Math is likely wrong

Chances: 19079198983237527/108649341010313216 = 27.5603%
Points: 8 | Differential: -2

With a marginally worse differential than the Astrotias, the Lindworm's chances are a bit less, since both a tie and a loss make them out, while winning isn't guaranteed either.

Playoff Conditions: (Some probabilities omitted since total probability can be calculated with the 9 other teams)
  • (193/512) Win: With a win, the Lindworms have 10 points, but have to deal with the Astrotias, Cobras, and Leviathans
    • (319/512) Leviathans Win/Tie: This leaves 1 spot
      • Outlined above in Leviathans, Cobras, and Astrotias
    • (193/512) Leviathans Lose, leaving possible 2 spots
      • Outlined above in Leviathans, Cobras, and Lindworms
  • (319/512) Tie/Loss: A tie loses to the Leviathans and one of the Astrotias/Mambas will be ahead, and same for a loss, meaning the Lindworms are out
Chances: 18.3016%
Points: 7 | Differential: +2

The Black City Mambas with 7 points have a shot at making playoffs if they win, but need specific results from other matches for them to make it.

Playoff Conditions:
  • (193/512) Win: Winning is the first step, putting the Mambas at 9 points, vying for the last spot
    • (193/512) Cobras Lose: Cobras need to lose
      • (319/512) Lindworms Tie/Lose: With this, the Mambas make playoffs
Chances: (11882431/134217728) = 8.8531%
Points: 7 | Differential: -10
The Bushmasters, even with their -10 differential have a way of making playoffs.

Playoff Conditions:
  • (193/512) Win: Winning requires extremely specific scenarios:
    • (1/386) Win 10-0: Bushmasters win 10-0 is the only way they can qualify
      • (231/1024): Mambas tie Astrotias
        • (193/512): Taipans beat Cobras
          • (193/512): Nagas beat Lindworms
            • (1/2): The Bushmasters win their tiebreak with the Astrotias
Chances: (8604519/549755813888) = 0.0016%
Points: 5 | Differential: -4
The Rattlers, while they have a better differential than the Bushmasters above, unfortunately do not have enough points to be in contention for playoffs.

Chances: 0%
Points: 4 | Differential: -16
The Serpents unfortunately cannot make playoffs.

Chances: 0%
Overall Chances:
Rank:Team:Record (Points):Chances:
1Terminus Taipans5 - 2 - 1 (11) | +14100%
2Lanakila Nagas5 - 2 - 1 (11) | +4100%
3Lake of Lage Leviathans5 - 3 - 0 (10) | +1297.7999%
4Celadon City Cobras4 - 3 - 1 (9) | +047.8935%
5Ambrette Astrotias4 - 4 - 0 (8) | +027.5603%
6Sky Tower Lindworms3 - 3 - 2 (8) | -218.3016%
7Black City Mambas3 - 4 - 1 (7) | +28.8531%
8Berry Forest Bushmasters3 - 4 - 1 (7) | -100.0016%
9Rumble Hall Rattlers2 - 5 - 1 (5) | -40%
10Shinto Ruin Serpents1 - 5 - 2 (4) | -160%
I likely messed up the math for the Astrotias and Lindworms, but the probabilities are probably close to actual.



Good luck to all the teams in this final week!
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Users: 1, Guests: 0)

Top