Smogon Usage-Based Tier Update: November 2015

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The Idealistic said:
Not sure if this is the right place to ask this kind of question, but will the base forms of ORAS Megas (that jumped multiple tiers solely because of their Mega form) be instantly quick-dropped to their original tiers should the Tier Leaders form a consensus on changing the tiering policy in December 2015?

Such as:

Base forms of Altaria and Lopunny from OU to PU
Base form Sceptile from UU to NU
Base form Beedrill from UU to FU
Base forms of Camerupt and Glailie from RU to PU

This special condition wouldn't specifically apply to the base forms of ORAS Megas that only jumped one tier due to their Megas, because they should drop to their original tiers again once this policy change takes place at the start of December. (such as base forms of Metagross and Sableye from OU to UU, base form Sharpedo from UU to RU, base form Steelix from RU to NU, base form Audino from NU to PU)
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Thats pretty much what is going to happen
 
Char Y won't drop, only regular zard will. Also, I'm pretty sure the cutoff is at 1,7% for the first month after the big tier update, not 3,4%
 
I think Zard Y was within the cutoff, but I'm just going off the sim's dropping thing in the teambuilder.

We need Raikou to deal with these new threats.
 
SketchUp said:
Char Y won't drop, only regular zard will. Also, I'm pretty sure the cutoff is at 1,7% for the first month after the big tier update, not 3,4%
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But Char-Y is in the (OU by mega and non-mega usage) in teambuilder and I think they are just quick-dropping all of the mons to the tiers they should be in.
 
I think they're going to do just quickdrops by the 1.67% cutoff. So definitely not Alakazam, nor Gyarados. Stuff like Sableye, Metagross or Sharpedo might not drop either. Still, what's not dropping now is going to do so in the next two months anyway, so don't worry.

A side note, Mega Charizard Y, whenever it drops, is going to be automatically BL, since Drought is a banned ability in UU.
 
Meta and Sharp might stay in their upper tiers, but since when has regular sab been good enough to warrant greater than 1.67% usage.
 
-Tynamo- said:
You didn't really get my post.

What I was trying to say was that Sableye was never good enough to warrant greater than 1.67% usage
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Oh, my apologies then.
Anyway, in order to make this post not as useless as it is with just excuses:
I'm really excited for the " return " of some pokemons in their OG tier, most notably Sharpedo in RU: Sharpedo was a really strong threat back then, and he'll prob be one once again.
 
Never said it's good, but you know, usage is different than viability. Anyway, it looks like I overstimated its usage, since it was around 0,6% in October and I doubt an huge spike in usage happened. It looks like Metagross and Sharpedo are low enough too(both around 0.8%).
 
I ran through the November stats and looked for which forms were below the quick-drop cut-off if mega and non-mega were tiered separately. Most of these are just eye-balled, but I've included numbers for anything that might be controversial or close to the cutoff. I'm also presuming that pokemon that the likes of Pinsir will return to the tiers their non-mega form were in prior to rising. With those presumptions, these are the drops to expect:

Altaria to PU
Charizard to UU
Diancie to UU
Gardevoir to UU
Lopunny to PU
Manectric to UU
Medicham to RU
Metagross to UU (7.2% usage * 11.3% non-mega form = 0.8% usage)
Pinsir to NU
Sableye to UU (6% usage * 10.7% non-mega form = 0.6% usage)
Venusaur to UU

Absol to RU
Aerodactyl to RU (12.4% usage * 8.7% non-mega form = 1.1% usage)
Aggron to RU (6.4% usage * 9.3% non-mega form = 0.6% usage)
Ampharos to RU
Beedrill to PU
Blastoise to RU (12.2% usage * 7.6% non-mega form = 0.9% usage)
Sceptile to NU
Sharpedo to RU (8% usage * 9.5% non-mega form = 0.7% usage)

Banette to NU
Camerupt to PU
Glalie to PU
Steelix to NU

Audino to PU

Abomasnow is omitted intentionally because it only just fell to RU and there are no recent stats for it (though I think it's a pretty safe bet it'll fall to NU). Alakazam and Gyarados are the only borderline cases. Alakazam and Mega Alakazam are outside of quick-drop range and will only fall in a full tier shift. Gyarados and Mega Gyarados are close enough that quick-drop is possible, but it's more likely they'll have to wait for a full tier shift to drop. Everything else is either in obvious quick-drop territory or isn't going to drop at all.
 
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Darvin said:
Abomasnow is omitted intentionally because it only just fell to RU and there are no recent stats for it (though I think it's a pretty safe bet it'll fall to NU).
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Not necessarily. Regular Abomasnow has been seeing some usage. The much better speed along with not taking up a mega slot has been pretty sweet for it. I wouldn't be surprised if it drops at the next major tier shift, but it's not a foregone conclusion that it'll quickdrop next month.
 
Is there any reason why a tier shift using the usual 3.4% cutoff can't (or shouldn't) be done for this month? A new system is being implemented and the lower tiers are going to be in a bit of turmoil from all the drops that are pretty certain to happen anyway. Then next month just go back to the usual routine with cutoffs.

If there's a reason it shouldnt then I'll take you words for it because I know you all understand the system better than I do but figured I'd ask anyway.
 
Flare Blitzle said:
Is there any reason why a tier shift using the usual 3.4% cutoff can't (or shouldn't) be done for this month? A new system is being implemented and the lower tiers are going to be in a bit of turmoil from all the drops that are pretty certain to happen anyway. Then next month just go back to the usual routine with cutoffs.

If there's a reason it shouldnt then I'll take you words for it because I know you all understand the system better than I do but figured I'd ask anyway.
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We shouldn't because the tiers are already going to be changing enough as it is, so it would be best if we try to ease the shift more (Also it fucks up the 3 month pattern)
 
Da Pizza Man said:
We shouldn't because the tiers are already going to be changing enough as it is, so it would be best if we try to ease the shift more (Also it fucks up the 3 month pattern)
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Well I suppose another option without affecting any of the data/three month pattern massively is to stick with the usual routeine/quick drop % in general for this month, yet also drop any Pokemon with Megas that are below the 3.4% cutoff this month (and only those). Since this new system is specifically targeting them and they would have moved down last month and will eventually anyway. And that way we won't end up with Sylveon, Conkeldurr, etc all potentially dropping at the same time all the Mega changes are happening if that were to be considered too chaotic.

I guess my suggestion is really only going to affect Gyarados and Alakazam in OU anyway, the others all seem low enough to drop now I think. (Well provided their usage remains similar as calculated by the earlier person.)

Idk it just doesn't make sense to me to implement this new system and then not use the 3.4% cutoff first time it's used and get the mons moving straight away.

I'm not trying to make a problem here just discuss possibilities. :O If my posts are considered irrelevant or making mountains out of molehills someone can delete or shout at me pls.
 
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