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So Many Cards Mafia - TEAM B wins!

about an hour ago:
Code: 
[23:11:35]  <Paperblade> so on a scale of 1-10
[23:11:44]  <Paperblade> what % chance does the village have of winning
[23:11:49]  <askaninjask> if they were active, all of them
[23:11:56]  <Paperblade> =(
[23:11:58]  <askaninjask> they'd have a 5% chance of winning due to pure luck
[23:12:04]  <Paperblade> ha
[23:12:06]  <askaninjask> which is the only reason i haven't called the game

The scenario going into today was this:
shinyskarmory had been silenced.
macle had two votes due to his mayor.
all other players (one on TEAM A, three on TEAM B) had one vote apiece. For those of you counting at home, that's 3 votes total for each team.

This means that the village could have tied the vote today.

Assuming the village had perfect information about who was who (which they didn't at the time but may have figured out), they could have done this:

If they tied the vote, the village would have been able to draw 5 cards from their deck as opposed to the usual 10 (as the cards would be split among all winners of the vote). Had they drawn two mayors, a mayor and a bodyguard (and used that BG well), or a mayor and a hook (and used that hook well), AND the mafia did not draw and correctly use neither a hook, a safeguard, a silence, a persuasion, a Budd Shot Silence, nor a mayor of their own (keep in mind they would have access to 5 village cards) then the village could have gone into the next day with a one vote advantage, which would have entailed that MAYBE they could continue the game toward a victory.

All of this presupposes that the village knew who each other were (on the only remaining village sheet at the end of the game, both Ullar and Ditto were written as villagers) and play their cards perfectly.

So while the village inactivity on the final day did act as the final nail in the coffin, there was not a huge chance of victory to begin with going into the day. :(
 
Lol I didn't. I told Acklow you were mafia because you couldn't take cards, for this exact reason;

You may use cards in addition to your role, but if you choose to false-claim village inspector, it would be wise to claim that you cannot.
Click to expand...

Then I died and someone else sheeted you. I'm not placing blame or anything, I don't know fuck all what happened in this game. But good job moling I guess.
 
To be fair, an inspector who could also use cards would have been very, very strong, and zorbees (the actual village info role) couldn't use cards either, so yea.
 
I as well was under the impression that Ditto was village (mainly because of this exchange)
[22:22] <Acklow> no the person who claimed inspect isn't lynched yet
[22:22] <Acklow> if you could give me a guess as to who it is
[22:22] <Acklow> do you think you could tell me off the top of your head?
01[22:22] <penguin344> no
01[22:22] <penguin344> he claimed to von
[22:22] <Acklow> you should based on votes
01[22:23] <penguin344> idk who is alive as the list on the topic isn't updated
01[22:26] <penguin344> either ullar or ditto I guess
[22:26] <Acklow> reasoning?
01[22:26] <penguin344> they are the two living players who did not vote
01[22:26] <penguin344> it's rather poor reasoning
01[22:26] <penguin344> but i've nothing else to go on
[22:27] <Acklow> that wouldn't make sense
[22:27] <Acklow> think about it this way:
[22:27] <Acklow> team b has 3 users left alive
[22:27] <Acklow> that means that since it's 3v4 atm
[22:27] <Acklow> they are riding to victory p easily
[22:27] <Acklow> that means they would want to be active
[22:28] <Acklow> so it has to be one of the active users, shoot again
01[22:29] <penguin344> walrein, macle, or shinyskarmory, from my point of view
01[22:29] <penguin344> oen could still be you, but I don't think that it is
[22:34] <Acklow> can you narrow it down from there?
[22:34] <Acklow> I think youcan
[22:34] <Acklow> *can
01[22:43] <penguin344> I guess walrein, I don't really know why
01[22:44] <penguin344> he seems to be posting second or third every time
01[22:44] <penguin344> err, voting
[22:45] <Acklow> so from there who do you think is bodyguard?
[22:45] <Acklow> bodyguard is trustworthy so they would HAVE to vote
01[22:45] <penguin344> our bg?
[22:46] <Acklow> yes
[22:46] <Acklow> our bg
[22:46] <Acklow> ._.
01[22:46] <penguin344> why can't they have a bg?
[22:46] <Acklow> what do you mean?
01[22:46] <penguin344> team b could have a bodyguard
[22:47] <Acklow> and what's your reasoning on that?
01[22:48] <penguin344> i don't have reasoning, we were talking about a team b role then moved onto the next role, and I was still thinking in terms of team b
01[22:48] <penguin344> mafia bgs have happened before
[22:48] <Acklow> ah well I thought you would assume team a since I mentioned earlier that the only two people I trust are myself and the bg
01[22:49] <penguin344> i was typing our bg before your trust thing went up
01[22:49] <penguin344> but I guess bg is ditto
01[22:49] <penguin344> given you called out ullar for results in the thread
01[22:49] <penguin344> wait, no
01[22:49] <penguin344> ditto didn't vote
1[22:52] <penguin344> either shinyskarm or macle then must be bg
01[22:52] <penguin344> i'd guess ditto is some rand village role and ullar is mafia
[22:53] <Acklow> what does that make you then, if I'm village, ss or macle is bg, and ditto is vilage?
01[22:53] <penguin344> village
01[22:54] <penguin344> one of ss or macle is mafia
[22:54] <Acklow> so out of macle/ss who do you think is bg
01[22:54] <penguin344> i guess ss
[22:54] <Acklow> ok ty
01[22:54] <penguin344> macle said something like "how am I not dead yet"
01[22:55] <penguin344> and I don't think bg would post something like that

I did not know that macle was a mayor, but it didn't really matter anyway. SS was silenced so at best we could have tied the vote if everyone was perfectly active. From there it would have been entirely based on what cards we drew.
 
sorry i was busy over the weekend and forgot.

doesnt matter tho since i didnt know who to vote for so i would have voted myself then rand lynched someone
 
vonFiedler said:
Well I mean I didn't know that. I just knew I 100% trusted Acklow and that's why HE inspected the bodyguard.
Click to expand...

[9:44pm] vonFiedler: Walrein is our inspector
[9:44pm] vonFiedler: 99% sure
[9:44pm] Acklow: o
[9:44pm] Acklow: lol gg awesome
[9:44pm] Acklow: amazing
[9:44pm] vonFiedler: but I'm gonna wait a day to maybe sheet him
[9:44pm] vonFiedler: you can talk to him though
[9:45pm] Acklow: ok

__________________________________________________

[9:31pm] vonFiedler: but should that be you or walrein?
[9:31pm] vonFiedler: no, that's half of it
[9:31pm] Acklow: o
[9:32pm] Acklow: oh yeah
[9:32pm] Acklow: true dat
[9:32pm] Acklow: x.x
[9:32pm] vonFiedler: we have two inspects remember
[9:32pm] vonFiedler: think about it
[9:32pm] Acklow: have walrein inspect daenym then?
[9:32pm] vonFiedler: I suppose
[9:32pm] vonFiedler: is there no one better to clean?
[9:32pm] Acklow: hmmm
[9:32pm] Acklow: walrein
[9:32pm] Acklow: inspect walrein
[9:32pm] vonFiedler: we don't even know daenyms ability
[9:32pm] vonFiedler: you mean
[9:32pm] vonFiedler: you inspect him
[9:32pm] Acklow: I clean walrein
[9:32pm] Acklow: he cleans zorbees
[9:32pm] vonFiedler: ok
[9:33pm] vonFiedler: I HIGHLY doubt that walrein and zorbs are on the same team if they are mafia
[9:33pm] vonFiedler: so that's ok
[9:33pm] Acklow: basically dont tell him he's being inspected
[9:33pm] vonFiedler: yeah, I get that
[9:33pm] Acklow: ok
[9:33pm] Acklow: I'm going to submit that as an action
[9:33pm] Acklow: do you want me to make any more twerk cards?
[9:33pm] vonFiedler: still, I kind of only slightly don't trust walrein
[9:33pm] vonFiedler: not tonight
[9:33pm] Acklow: ok
[9:33pm] Acklow: yeah that's what I figured
[9:34pm] vonFiedler: but I'm not totally sold on inspecting walrein
[9:34pm] Acklow: hmmm
[9:34pm] vonFiedler: it's kind of a waste just to be nice to him
[9:34pm] vonFiedler: we don't gain a new ability
[9:34pm] vonFiedler: he's not a great player
[9:34pm] Acklow: then I inspect daenym he inspects zorbees?
[9:34pm] Acklow: idk
[9:34pm] vonFiedler: maybe
[9:35pm] vonFiedler: oh
[9:35pm] vonFiedler: DUH
[9:35pm] vonFiedler: shinyskarmory
[9:35pm] Acklow: :o


So....yeah? I was mainly led to believe an inspect wouldn't be worth it on Walrein, since von was pretty sold on him being village inspect. From that line of reasoning, I played under the assumption that Walrein was "clean" and his inspects were hard truth. Most of his inspects did lead to some good results, but in the end I realized it too late. I kept our actions hidden from him on Night 5, hoping that it would change things which it did. Walrein was unsure who was targetting who so he couldn't guarantee that everything he wanted would go through which is how we ended up with only 1 death. However, if the scenario on night 5 was me hooking jalmont, holly bging me and macle bging holly, then nobody would have died and we would've been up 1 player. There were plenty of other chances as well that kinda fell through the cracks, but that was my fault and I admit that I played poorly in that regard. Otherwise, I tried my best this game and worked very hard so I have no regrets.

Also proof that I had second doubts on Walrein:

askaninjask: hi
[8:53pm] Acklow: hi
[8:53pm] Acklow: got my results :)
[8:53pm] askaninjask: :O
[9:03pm] Acklow: was there something you were going to tell me?
[9:04pm] Acklow: ok
[9:04pm] Acklow: so
[9:04pm] Acklow: just so you are aware
[9:05pm] Acklow: von pretty much gave me access to the sheet
[9:05pm] Acklow: I think I'm one of only 2 people
[9:05pm] Acklow: o
[9:05pm] Acklow: probably the only other person
[9:05pm] Acklow: with access besides von
[9:05pm] Acklow: zorbees was cleaned by walrein
[9:05pm] Acklow: von was also cleaned by walrein
[9:05pm] Acklow: my only issue here is that somewhere there's a mole
[9:06pm] Acklow: and I'm afraid that walrein might be mafia
[9:06pm] Acklow: I'm not 100% certain of him being clean
[9:06pm] Acklow: but if he is indeed clean
[9:06pm] Acklow: then some of the claims we received are mafia
[9:09pm] Acklow: which is obvious
[9:09pm] Acklow: lol
[9:09pm] Acklow: but anyways
[9:09pm] Acklow: in regards to the game
[9:09pm] Acklow: I'm trying to coordinate things from the shadows
[9:09pm] Acklow: like I usually do
[9:09pm] Acklow: as an indirect vigilante of village justice
[9:16pm] Acklow: ok
[9:16pm] Acklow: giving walrein sheet access
[9:16pm] Acklow: if this bites me in the ass down the rode
[9:16pm] Acklow: *road
[9:16pm] Acklow: well
[9:16pm] Acklow: it wouldn't be the first time I got screwed over like that
[9:26pm] Acklow: gonna add zorbees too
[9:46pm] Acklow: join #umineko
[9:57pm] askaninjask: after that case she dies?
[9:57pm] Acklow: n
 
I just realized:

[9:16pm] Acklow: ok
[9:16pm] Acklow: giving walrein sheet access
[9:16pm] Acklow: if this bites me in the ass down the rode
[9:16pm] Acklow: *road
[9:16pm] Acklow: well
[9:16pm] Acklow: it wouldn't be the first time I got screwed over like that

lol
 
Acklow said:
[9:33pm] vonFiedler: I HIGHLY doubt that walrein and zorbs are on the same team if they are mafia
Click to expand...

I feel this makes it pretty clear that I saw walrein as mafia, I don't really remember the context for saying I was 99% sure otherwise but I know I told TIK and maybe someone else that the inspector was probably dirty. At any rate I still sheeted you and had you inspect ss.
 
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