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Tournaments SPL XVII ADV Hype Thread
- Thread starter Endill
- Start date
Johnald vs zinc
Triangles vs mayo
shitrock enjoyer vs mielke
pixie909 vs Endill
Garay oak vs JabbaTheGriffin
Triangles vs mayo
shitrock enjoyer vs mielke
pixie909 vs Endill
Garay oak vs JabbaTheGriffin
Johnald vs zinc- closest matchup this week IMO. Coinflip giving to zinc whose teams have been more out of the box so far
Triangles vs mayo- picked against triangles last week. Probably will not do that again this season.
shitrock enjoyer vs mielke- another awesome matchup.
pixie909 vs Endill
Garay oak vs JabbaTheGriffin- I will still bold Garay every single time
Triangles vs mayo- picked against triangles last week. Probably will not do that again this season.
shitrock enjoyer vs mielke- another awesome matchup.
pixie909 vs Endill
Garay oak vs JabbaTheGriffin- I will still bold Garay every single time
[BIG] Johnald vs [CRY] zinc
[SCO] Triangles vs [SHA] mayo
[TYR] shitrock enjoyer vs [WOL] mielke
[TIG] pixie909 vs [RAI] Endill
[CLA] Garay oak vs [RUI] JabbaTheGriffin
[SCO] Triangles vs [SHA] mayo
[TYR] shitrock enjoyer vs [WOL] mielke
[TIG] pixie909 vs [RAI] Endill
[CLA] Garay oak vs [RUI] JabbaTheGriffin
[BIG] Johnald vs [CRY] zinc - Too close to call, but this is a battle of ADVs most prolific new chef vs a fantastic Cryos kitchen. VERY excited for this MU.
[SCO] Triangles vs [SHA] mayo - I love you Dad
[TYR] shitrock enjoyer vs [WOL] mielke - I reserve the right to change this if Mielke love Ayrton Senna more than Daz does
[TIG] pixie909 vs [RAI] Endill - Its great to see Blaise shine, and I'll be happy for her if she wins. Gotta go with my brother Endill here though, he has more reps at this level.
[CLA] Garay oak vs [RUI] JabbaTheGriffin - How is Jabba even still alive at this point?
Edit: Mielke > Daz
[SCO] Triangles vs [SHA] mayo - I love you Dad
[TYR] shitrock enjoyer vs [WOL] mielke - I reserve the right to change this if Mielke love Ayrton Senna more than Daz does
[TIG] pixie909 vs [RAI] Endill - Its great to see Blaise shine, and I'll be happy for her if she wins. Gotta go with my brother Endill here though, he has more reps at this level.
[CLA] Garay oak vs [RUI] JabbaTheGriffin - How is Jabba even still alive at this point?
Edit: Mielke > Daz
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Don't have much energy or time this week, so I'll keep it short and sweet.
Endill vs Fruhdazi:
Endill's prep was quite intelligent. SpD Wish Jira with HP Grass to hit (End) Pert and Hypno Gar to abuse Fruhdazi's use of Registeel (often without Pursuit) was sharp. I think I like this six with dual status Gengar, too, if you're using Hypnosis. I liked this comp at one point with Tect Jira to help get an easy advantage in the Aero mirror, allowing for more offensive sets elsewhere on the team (CB Tar in particular), but I think this version has more clever synergies.
I love this team. Mix Mence Spikes hasn't been in vogue for a while, and I think part of it has to do with the polarization of the tier between the most offensive and defensive of builds. There is U6, and of course, Altina's/Sadly's SpD Jira+Mence Spikes build saw some play, but there haven't been many new Mix Mence Spikes builds in the last few years at this level. What Fruhdazi does here very convincingly is slot Mence with End Pert AND Pursuit Tar AND Rapid Spin. Very often, Pursuit Tar is a pace mismatch on offense teams, and I would argue Mix Mence is also far slower than DD Mence on a momentum-oriented build, and using a slot on Rapid Spin without any mon to meaningfully benefit from it (like Registeel, Blissey, Suicune, etc.) isn't always optimal. Mix Mence isn't a notably worse Pokemon than before, but I think people are just not interested in loading Tar/[Skarm+Dol or Forre+1]/Mence so much, because the usual SpD mon on these builds is Blissey, which has been found to be better without Sand and on more defensively slanted builds. Pursuit Tar instead of an extra SpD mon makes a lot of sense here, since half of the team really doesn't like Gengar, and Pert is also unhappy to switch into it. Dol helps, too, but as we saw, Gar still had a free hand this game after clicking Hypnosis. The core of Steel+End Pert+Dol is documented at this point, but it's also possible that Off Pert is a good fit here. In any case, Roar Pert on TSS is a really strong pick. If Steel can TW a Gengar for Mence (Dol or Steel), the player is happy. There's also a nice synergy between paralysis and End Pert. It's hard to say Thief on Skarmory is the only option here, since it isn't supporting anything offensively, but it brings an extra Skarm beat-down factor and allows Pert to break through it more easily. And Claydol makes the most sense here to bulk out the defensive core. It's also the rare SkarmDol TSS that slots a water type (well) and fits pressure into Swampert (with Tox Steel, also pressuring Blissey? Maybe HP Grass Tar? and HP Grass Mence). Instant classic team.
Mielke vs Johnald:
Mielke's team is a curiosity. It's clear he's been high on TW Gyara. I think there's a synergy between the TW spam and Spore, since all mons that will want to eat a TW from Registeel hate switching into Breloom, bar Claydol and Celebi who can be abused by other team members, and no mon wants to eat a TW from Gyarados, and those who can are likewise abused by Suit Tar and Breloom. I liked the synergy between Loom and Gyara, and I think Mielke is onto something with Suit Tar, Gyara, and Breloom as a combination. Maybe it's only this comp that can pull it off so well? Gyarados as the only bulky water has always concerned me -- even moreso with (unsupported, even) Agility (Slide) Metagross in vogue in recent years -- but if there is a way of doing that, it's with Registeel and TW spam. I really love this comp. I don't know if Gyarados is really making a comeback, but I have to say that Mielke has brought some really interesting takes on it that could be significant in the near future.
Johnald's team looks like something that is worse vs Spin stall. I think it's CM Blissey here. I don't hate it -- I big 4 always good to be at least a B-tier archetype, whatever the metagame -- but these grounded, Spinless, Blissey TSS's should probably fit some other broken mon in the Zap slot (like Rest Zap) to ensure that Blissey isn't just getting overloaded. I like how it fits BKC Tar and Mix Mence next to an offensive Blissey, and I absolutely love how there's a Zapdos to help against Pert, Skarm, and Gengar and to chip Tar for Blissey.
The rest:
Zinc's build vs Kollin isn't for me. I feel like some of the techs were a little asynergistic, with Agility Meta unsupported against SkarmPert and the whole team being Spikes weak. Only Prinz has loaded spinless spec off this SPL, and I think it's safe to say that this approach is dated. I'll caveat this by saying I haven't looked at this kind of build in a while, and I'm not particularly sympathetic to the team style, so it's possible I'm dismissing it here without giving it its due dilligence, but I don't think it's unfair to say Dugtrio (offense) has its downsides, and the approach chosen to patch them here is at least indirect in patching them. I wonder if the Jirachi is HP Grass last. Kollin brought Linear's six vs Golden Sun in SPL XII w1. Linear used a SpD Wish 3 Attacks (Bslam/Fire/Grass) Jira, a BKC Tar, and a Fire Blast Def Gon instead of Fire/Psy Jira, Sub Tar, and Sub Gon. And he used Off Star. I heard that Kollin's Flygon didn't have HP Bug. Not sure if this is true, though. I don't really get Off Gon, and I certainly don't love this kind of build with no true Zapdos switch-ins -- assuming his Jirachi was Modest Super (with bulk) -- but I can kind of understand how someone might think it's enough to pivot with Gon and co.
I didn't think Jabba vs Blaise or Garay Oak vs Triangles showed anything new or interesting in the team department. I messed around with something like what Jabba brought, but with Seed CM Celebi and Curse 3 Lax a few years back, and I thought it was a fun build, at least.
Endill vs Fruhdazi:
Endill's prep was quite intelligent. SpD Wish Jira with HP Grass to hit (End) Pert and Hypno Gar to abuse Fruhdazi's use of Registeel (often without Pursuit) was sharp. I think I like this six with dual status Gengar, too, if you're using Hypnosis. I liked this comp at one point with Tect Jira to help get an easy advantage in the Aero mirror, allowing for more offensive sets elsewhere on the team (CB Tar in particular), but I think this version has more clever synergies.
I love this team. Mix Mence Spikes hasn't been in vogue for a while, and I think part of it has to do with the polarization of the tier between the most offensive and defensive of builds. There is U6, and of course, Altina's/Sadly's SpD Jira+Mence Spikes build saw some play, but there haven't been many new Mix Mence Spikes builds in the last few years at this level. What Fruhdazi does here very convincingly is slot Mence with End Pert AND Pursuit Tar AND Rapid Spin. Very often, Pursuit Tar is a pace mismatch on offense teams, and I would argue Mix Mence is also far slower than DD Mence on a momentum-oriented build, and using a slot on Rapid Spin without any mon to meaningfully benefit from it (like Registeel, Blissey, Suicune, etc.) isn't always optimal. Mix Mence isn't a notably worse Pokemon than before, but I think people are just not interested in loading Tar/[Skarm+Dol or Forre+1]/Mence so much, because the usual SpD mon on these builds is Blissey, which has been found to be better without Sand and on more defensively slanted builds. Pursuit Tar instead of an extra SpD mon makes a lot of sense here, since half of the team really doesn't like Gengar, and Pert is also unhappy to switch into it. Dol helps, too, but as we saw, Gar still had a free hand this game after clicking Hypnosis. The core of Steel+End Pert+Dol is documented at this point, but it's also possible that Off Pert is a good fit here. In any case, Roar Pert on TSS is a really strong pick. If Steel can TW a Gengar for Mence (Dol or Steel), the player is happy. There's also a nice synergy between paralysis and End Pert. It's hard to say Thief on Skarmory is the only option here, since it isn't supporting anything offensively, but it brings an extra Skarm beat-down factor and allows Pert to break through it more easily. And Claydol makes the most sense here to bulk out the defensive core. It's also the rare SkarmDol TSS that slots a water type (well) and fits pressure into Swampert (with Tox Steel, also pressuring Blissey? Maybe HP Grass Tar? and HP Grass Mence). Instant classic team.
Mielke vs Johnald:
Mielke's team is a curiosity. It's clear he's been high on TW Gyara. I think there's a synergy between the TW spam and Spore, since all mons that will want to eat a TW from Registeel hate switching into Breloom, bar Claydol and Celebi who can be abused by other team members, and no mon wants to eat a TW from Gyarados, and those who can are likewise abused by Suit Tar and Breloom. I liked the synergy between Loom and Gyara, and I think Mielke is onto something with Suit Tar, Gyara, and Breloom as a combination. Maybe it's only this comp that can pull it off so well? Gyarados as the only bulky water has always concerned me -- even moreso with (unsupported, even) Agility (Slide) Metagross in vogue in recent years -- but if there is a way of doing that, it's with Registeel and TW spam. I really love this comp. I don't know if Gyarados is really making a comeback, but I have to say that Mielke has brought some really interesting takes on it that could be significant in the near future.
Johnald's team looks like something that is worse vs Spin stall. I think it's CM Blissey here. I don't hate it -- I big 4 always good to be at least a B-tier archetype, whatever the metagame -- but these grounded, Spinless, Blissey TSS's should probably fit some other broken mon in the Zap slot (like Rest Zap) to ensure that Blissey isn't just getting overloaded. I like how it fits BKC Tar and Mix Mence next to an offensive Blissey, and I absolutely love how there's a Zapdos to help against Pert, Skarm, and Gengar and to chip Tar for Blissey.
The rest:
Zinc's build vs Kollin isn't for me. I feel like some of the techs were a little asynergistic, with Agility Meta unsupported against SkarmPert and the whole team being Spikes weak. Only Prinz has loaded spinless spec off this SPL, and I think it's safe to say that this approach is dated. I'll caveat this by saying I haven't looked at this kind of build in a while, and I'm not particularly sympathetic to the team style, so it's possible I'm dismissing it here without giving it its due dilligence, but I don't think it's unfair to say Dugtrio (offense) has its downsides, and the approach chosen to patch them here is at least indirect in patching them. I wonder if the Jirachi is HP Grass last. Kollin brought Linear's six vs Golden Sun in SPL XII w1. Linear used a SpD Wish 3 Attacks (Bslam/Fire/Grass) Jira, a BKC Tar, and a Fire Blast Def Gon instead of Fire/Psy Jira, Sub Tar, and Sub Gon. And he used Off Star. I heard that Kollin's Flygon didn't have HP Bug. Not sure if this is true, though. I don't really get Off Gon, and I certainly don't love this kind of build with no true Zapdos switch-ins -- assuming his Jirachi was Modest Super (with bulk) -- but I can kind of understand how someone might think it's enough to pivot with Gon and co.
I didn't think Jabba vs Blaise or Garay Oak vs Triangles showed anything new or interesting in the team department. I messed around with something like what Jabba brought, but with Seed CM Celebi and Curse 3 Lax a few years back, and I thought it was a fun build, at least.
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Endill vs fruhdazi:
The thing that stands out to me about this game is endill's decision to earthquake on turn 20. It's not like an objectively bad play, and more than anything I think he was just worried about getting pursuited after a pert sac, but at a fundamental level there's something so ugly about locking into a ground move with aero when you've got 3 spikes. I'm not saying claydol was obvious either but it is the worst possible turn you could have, probably, and claydol isn't totally unexpected here either. The claydol reaction being straight to gengar and click hypnosis is also pretty ugly. This sequence works out alright for him though, and while the game is still pretty messy I think endill is favored until he gets crit on turn 25. Leaving pert in here does seem like the right play, as even at very low hp it would be a big threat against fruhdazi's team. I'm not sure the possibility of salamence living pert's ice beam is super worth considering. After claydol got burned by jirachi I understand that he didn't predict a rapid spin there but this game is still very winnable even if he goes gengar on shadow ball, but it's over as soon as spikes are off the field.
I'm not really impressed by either of these teams. I like how fruhdazi's asks his opponent to trade a lot of skarm hp early against registeel and then reveals spin later, but it seems like it could easily fall victim to the common suittar dilemma of "something has gone wrong and now my whole game falls apart". That something in this game was hypnogar, but there are a dozen reasons why a suittar trap can fail with 3 spikes down. Endill's team is alright, jirachi here has some minorly different strengths and weaknesses from blissey but is a momentum sink in much the same way. I really prefer an offensive mon in that slot, but having a dedicated defender there does open up your tyranitar set to be more aggressive. Hypnogar is underutilized and has been forever.
Jabba vs Pixie909:
Jabba really displays some of the difficulties with using mixed offense here. When your blissey answer, your tyranitar answer, and your most effective breaker are all the same pokemon, it's really hard to make progress without sliding farther back. Case in point, Jabba gets huge value out of the metagross, but its hp just gets too low to fight blissey 1 on 1. This might be ok if the blissey weren't packing hp grass for the swampert, but it was, and Jabba pretty much had to lose everything against it that could possibly stop tar. On top of that, blissey's longevity in spikeless games just meant it could keep coming back in forever. This was also BKC's platonic ideal of a snorlax game - it gets chipped by spikes, small attacks, and sand before needing to blow up on skarm, not accomplishing much along the way. I don't have too much to say about the way Blaise played it, and I don't think either player really made too many mistakes, although I'm a little miffed that in my predictions I said Jabba would be good against standard spikes and then he decided to bring snorlax mixoff. Really hurting my credibility there.
Blaise's team is cool, I like starmie + claydol in the way it asks your opponent to respect starmie as a spinner (which it's not really good at) while being free to run a 3 atks recover set. CM fire grass blissey fits well here and obviously had a really good matchup.
Triangles vs Garay Oak:
Kind of a lame game, triangles gets really lucky but he did at least make a cool play or two. The ice beam as Garay tried to pivot suicune around to get more leftovers was pretty heads-up, as cune could've been an issue if it got a rest off. This is probably also the first spl game in the 3 or 4 years where freeze clause has been in the game where it's actually activated, so that's something. Still 0% on changing the outcome of a game I suppose.
Johnald vs mielke:
Both players played this well in my opinion, even though mielke made some kind of incomprehensible plays with claydol. SD Breloom was one of only a couple mons that had a chance there in the end, and by my estimation it was favored, although johnald may have had a trick up his sleeve.
Mielke's team is pretty cool, with registeel playing a nice backup to metagross and freeing up its item slot for a choice band. This also creates a lot of organic pressure on skarmory, which is nice for back claydol (similar to fruhdazi's team from earlier, but this isn't really anything novel for zoomers in the loop). Johnald's team is just a classic 'pick six [Nwosu] from the top ten of the vr' type team which is not too interesting to talk about. I always like the strategy of bringing low-variance balance though. It looks a little weak into stall but I kinda doubt anybody is going to stall into him after seeing cursetrap clops pp stall in the scout.
Kollin vs Zinc:
I'm gonna have to start bolding zinc soon. I'm a big believer in wins where I don't see anything special going on, and this is another one of those from her. I wonder if going suicune first is a mistake at the end there - it would depend on what rolls flygon has against celebi and suicune, but I think that if kollin had sent tyranitar it could have chipped or ko'd the suicune and prepared the flygon to sweep. There are a lot of possibilities even in this pretty clearly-defined endgame.
I like how the offense of kollin's team works. Spikes+gengar+superrachi+starmie is about as good as it gets on the special side, and on top of that subpunch tar and superrachi pave the way for sub3atks gon pretty well too. With all that offense comes a tradeoff though, and that's that it's really hard to switch into things. After skarm goes down the whole team really gets 1v1d by agility metagross, and wisping a metagross with gengar just isn't a great plan to have. I don't really love zinc's team, but at least it doesn't seem all-in on dugtrio trapping blissey. Honestly I hope it's toxic mixzap and the dugtrio doesn't have any bulk. It does look like one of those lame weak fat dugs based on the ttar interaction though. Both of these teams are pretty weak against aero, and subgon should've been very nice against Zinc here but kollin was just put on the back foot a bit too much.
Alright, time for predictions. I promise I don't know whether any games have been played yet... I'll try to get these done earlier next week.
Total (last week):
12-8 (2-3)
Johnald vs Zinc
Aagghh. The two players I've been wrongly picking against the most. They play similarly in a way - neither are very flashy, just solid and mostly mistake-free gameplay. I'm taking Zinc here as there's a big enough sample size for me to be very impressed so far this season. Johnald has been just a hair lower, so I think this will be a close one, and with the way they've both been playing it should be a long (or at least stable) one as well.
Triangles vs Mayo
Triangles didn't play his best last week. I expect a return to form, but I think even a subpar game from his standards should be enough for a win here. Mayo just hasn't been spectacular this season. I have seen plenty of SPL turnarounds and collapses and in no way am I saying this is a foregone conclusion, but this is one of the more lopsided matchups the pool has to offer.
Fruhdazi vs mielke
I don't think it would be an overstatement to say that these are the two most influential builders right now, so I'm excited to see what they can do here. I'm sure this will be an unpopular prediction but I think I've liked mielke's two games more than fruhdazi's four, especially with the odds mielke have himself to win at the end last week. This is probably the highest likelihood of a registeel mirror match that we'll have all season, which I'm not really looking forward to. Sounds a bit too much like rby chansey. Maybe we can see curse rest rollout or something. I guess that just loses to counter worse than almost anything else.
Pixie909 vs Endill
Blaise has played calm, good, solid adv in her two matches and I hate to say it but Endill has made some kind of large error in every game he's played thus far. He's a great player but I need to see him prove it in the next couple weeks if I'm going to start bolding him again. Endill is also one of the players in the pool I'd be happiest bringing standard spikes into, and that should play into Blaise's comfort zone well.
Garay Oak vs Jabba
Garay's just played great adv so far in this tournament, and he's already gone a very respectable 1-1 against the consensus top 2 in the pool. Frankly, I'm not sure there's anybody left in his schedule who I'd take over him. Jabba played alright last week, but his team choice left a bit to be desired. He'll have to prep a bit better to win this one, but Garay isn't exactly an easy guy to prep for either.
The thing that stands out to me about this game is endill's decision to earthquake on turn 20. It's not like an objectively bad play, and more than anything I think he was just worried about getting pursuited after a pert sac, but at a fundamental level there's something so ugly about locking into a ground move with aero when you've got 3 spikes. I'm not saying claydol was obvious either but it is the worst possible turn you could have, probably, and claydol isn't totally unexpected here either. The claydol reaction being straight to gengar and click hypnosis is also pretty ugly. This sequence works out alright for him though, and while the game is still pretty messy I think endill is favored until he gets crit on turn 25. Leaving pert in here does seem like the right play, as even at very low hp it would be a big threat against fruhdazi's team. I'm not sure the possibility of salamence living pert's ice beam is super worth considering. After claydol got burned by jirachi I understand that he didn't predict a rapid spin there but this game is still very winnable even if he goes gengar on shadow ball, but it's over as soon as spikes are off the field.
I'm not really impressed by either of these teams. I like how fruhdazi's asks his opponent to trade a lot of skarm hp early against registeel and then reveals spin later, but it seems like it could easily fall victim to the common suittar dilemma of "something has gone wrong and now my whole game falls apart". That something in this game was hypnogar, but there are a dozen reasons why a suittar trap can fail with 3 spikes down. Endill's team is alright, jirachi here has some minorly different strengths and weaknesses from blissey but is a momentum sink in much the same way. I really prefer an offensive mon in that slot, but having a dedicated defender there does open up your tyranitar set to be more aggressive. Hypnogar is underutilized and has been forever.
Jabba vs Pixie909:
Jabba really displays some of the difficulties with using mixed offense here. When your blissey answer, your tyranitar answer, and your most effective breaker are all the same pokemon, it's really hard to make progress without sliding farther back. Case in point, Jabba gets huge value out of the metagross, but its hp just gets too low to fight blissey 1 on 1. This might be ok if the blissey weren't packing hp grass for the swampert, but it was, and Jabba pretty much had to lose everything against it that could possibly stop tar. On top of that, blissey's longevity in spikeless games just meant it could keep coming back in forever. This was also BKC's platonic ideal of a snorlax game - it gets chipped by spikes, small attacks, and sand before needing to blow up on skarm, not accomplishing much along the way. I don't have too much to say about the way Blaise played it, and I don't think either player really made too many mistakes, although I'm a little miffed that in my predictions I said Jabba would be good against standard spikes and then he decided to bring snorlax mixoff. Really hurting my credibility there.
Blaise's team is cool, I like starmie + claydol in the way it asks your opponent to respect starmie as a spinner (which it's not really good at) while being free to run a 3 atks recover set. CM fire grass blissey fits well here and obviously had a really good matchup.
Triangles vs Garay Oak:
Kind of a lame game, triangles gets really lucky but he did at least make a cool play or two. The ice beam as Garay tried to pivot suicune around to get more leftovers was pretty heads-up, as cune could've been an issue if it got a rest off. This is probably also the first spl game in the 3 or 4 years where freeze clause has been in the game where it's actually activated, so that's something. Still 0% on changing the outcome of a game I suppose.
Johnald vs mielke:
Both players played this well in my opinion, even though mielke made some kind of incomprehensible plays with claydol. SD Breloom was one of only a couple mons that had a chance there in the end, and by my estimation it was favored, although johnald may have had a trick up his sleeve.
Mielke's team is pretty cool, with registeel playing a nice backup to metagross and freeing up its item slot for a choice band. This also creates a lot of organic pressure on skarmory, which is nice for back claydol (similar to fruhdazi's team from earlier, but this isn't really anything novel for zoomers in the loop). Johnald's team is just a classic 'pick six [Nwosu] from the top ten of the vr' type team which is not too interesting to talk about. I always like the strategy of bringing low-variance balance though. It looks a little weak into stall but I kinda doubt anybody is going to stall into him after seeing cursetrap clops pp stall in the scout.
Kollin vs Zinc:
I'm gonna have to start bolding zinc soon. I'm a big believer in wins where I don't see anything special going on, and this is another one of those from her. I wonder if going suicune first is a mistake at the end there - it would depend on what rolls flygon has against celebi and suicune, but I think that if kollin had sent tyranitar it could have chipped or ko'd the suicune and prepared the flygon to sweep. There are a lot of possibilities even in this pretty clearly-defined endgame.
I like how the offense of kollin's team works. Spikes+gengar+superrachi+starmie is about as good as it gets on the special side, and on top of that subpunch tar and superrachi pave the way for sub3atks gon pretty well too. With all that offense comes a tradeoff though, and that's that it's really hard to switch into things. After skarm goes down the whole team really gets 1v1d by agility metagross, and wisping a metagross with gengar just isn't a great plan to have. I don't really love zinc's team, but at least it doesn't seem all-in on dugtrio trapping blissey. Honestly I hope it's toxic mixzap and the dugtrio doesn't have any bulk. It does look like one of those lame weak fat dugs based on the ttar interaction though. Both of these teams are pretty weak against aero, and subgon should've been very nice against Zinc here but kollin was just put on the back foot a bit too much.
Alright, time for predictions. I promise I don't know whether any games have been played yet... I'll try to get these done earlier next week.
Total (last week):
12-8 (2-3)
Johnald vs Zinc
Aagghh. The two players I've been wrongly picking against the most. They play similarly in a way - neither are very flashy, just solid and mostly mistake-free gameplay. I'm taking Zinc here as there's a big enough sample size for me to be very impressed so far this season. Johnald has been just a hair lower, so I think this will be a close one, and with the way they've both been playing it should be a long (or at least stable) one as well.
Triangles vs Mayo
Triangles didn't play his best last week. I expect a return to form, but I think even a subpar game from his standards should be enough for a win here. Mayo just hasn't been spectacular this season. I have seen plenty of SPL turnarounds and collapses and in no way am I saying this is a foregone conclusion, but this is one of the more lopsided matchups the pool has to offer.
Fruhdazi vs mielke
I don't think it would be an overstatement to say that these are the two most influential builders right now, so I'm excited to see what they can do here. I'm sure this will be an unpopular prediction but I think I've liked mielke's two games more than fruhdazi's four, especially with the odds mielke have himself to win at the end last week. This is probably the highest likelihood of a registeel mirror match that we'll have all season, which I'm not really looking forward to. Sounds a bit too much like rby chansey. Maybe we can see curse rest rollout or something. I guess that just loses to counter worse than almost anything else.
Pixie909 vs Endill
Blaise has played calm, good, solid adv in her two matches and I hate to say it but Endill has made some kind of large error in every game he's played thus far. He's a great player but I need to see him prove it in the next couple weeks if I'm going to start bolding him again. Endill is also one of the players in the pool I'd be happiest bringing standard spikes into, and that should play into Blaise's comfort zone well.
Garay Oak vs Jabba
Garay's just played great adv so far in this tournament, and he's already gone a very respectable 1-1 against the consensus top 2 in the pool. Frankly, I'm not sure there's anybody left in his schedule who I'd take over him. Jabba played alright last week, but his team choice left a bit to be desired. He'll have to prep a bit better to win this one, but Garay isn't exactly an easy guy to prep for either.
SOMEHOW, CALLOUS HAS RETURNED. SPL ADV WEEK 4 FEATURING MR. INVITATIONAL HIMSELF. HYPEST GAMES YET? NOT CLICKBAIT? REAL? NO MISDREAVUS? ON CIF?
w5 in, folks. Here are my two cents.
I didn't initially feel most of the stuff that was brought this week, but I would like to highlight concepts and synergies that you might have missed if you're only interested in identifying the 'perfect 6' -- of which I am guilty.
Johnald vs Zinc:
Super standard build by Johnald with a Chesto Rest Thief Skarmory. An interesting wrinkle on a known concept that brings a little something extra. I'm not a fan of Skarmory that is walled by Rapid Spin users, but I think there's something to be said for the upside in this metagame where Registeel and Claydol are quite frequently seen. I think it was a nice call. I don't generally like teams with Metagross as the only rock resist, because I feel the player relies on Meta too much defensively to boom it, and it tends to disappoint when leaned on defensively against all manner of physical attackers. But I think Johnald might be using a Brick Break Mence (with Fire Blast? And DD?) which offers support against Ttar. I think TW on Blissey is very useful for teams that use Metagross in this way, so not to let opposing phys spam get out of control, but people keep loading and winning with this kind of team -- and not for no reason. I think there will always be some love for Metagross (Spikes+)Spin balances, and this game was a good example of why.
Zinc brought a modern mixed offense with Defensive Starmie and Machamp. I think if she had sequenced her threats differently, she might have won this game. Or maybe she needed to bring Claydol instead of Starmie so that Registeel didn't have to eat a Focus Punch (or EQ) from Tyranitar to prevent DD Tar from being so threatening. Imo, she might have been better served by going straight to Mence -- if it had Brick Break -- or Starmie and assuming the Tyranitar was not DD, but I can understand that Starmie switching into a Pursuit Tar would be annoying with Metagross behind. The synergies are there against stall, but I don't think that Machamp trading with Salamence helped any mon except for Mence much, but by the time Mence was clicking DD, Metagross was able to boom it to go 2-for-1, and Tar had already eaten Steel. I'm neither convinced this approach was ideal nor convince it's a bad try. I think she just didn't get value for her tools given the match-up, and I can see this working against Johnald's standard fare -- or maybe a Skarm/Spin/Bliss comp without Metagross AND Starmie.
triangles vs mayo:
I like this kind of build. I have explored similar comps with Blissey or Snorlax. I love the combination of Rest(?) Zap and Milotic and think it frees Milo up to use Ice Beam instead of Refresh more often -- not without downsides, of course -- and I can get behind supporting Milo with double Spin, because it's a threat to trade up in every game. I think it's a very clever way of fitting harder to fit defensive mons, and that Zap+Jira+Milo should be well-suited to taking a few scalps. Of course, this team is slow and susceptible to the same weaknesses as his other Milo+Tar Dugless stall (with Skarm+Bliss>Forre+Zap) and probably more, but I think (HP Grass/Roar/Rest) Zapdos offers enough upside that a team like this is well worth considering. The downsides are being easily haxed and finding it difficult to rk stuff like End Pert, for example (as he almost certainly well knows), but I like this choice and think it should play well against the vast majority of Spikes teams and have a good time against the majority of offenses. I also love that it fits Sand and celebrate the use of Forre+Dol+Wish Jira AND Milo to support a bulky pivoting Ttar. 2x SpD mons next to Tar is enough that Ttar never has to risk its HP unnecessarily, and having 2x Pert checks with Jirachi is a huge add. This team does a lot of little things at a high level. I can't understate how high I am on this kind of comp.
mayo's build had a similar problem to zinc's where the bulky SpD mon is forced to stay in and eat Focus Punch from unrevealed Ttar to slow it down. I don't think BKC Tar is amazing in current meta because it struggles to position itself freely -- more on this later -- but maybe there is real upside in revealing it later in the game? In any case, Blissey doesn't trade for either DDer, and not having a status absorber, like Rest Cune, Refresh Mence, etc. was a problem this game. I was wondering if mayo had Rest anywhere on this team with Aroma Blissey. That might have been interesting. Magneton balance/offense will always have a playable game against defensive teams like triangles', so I think there's a point here that can be celebrated in mayo's build, but I'm not sure how much I trust the team on the defensive end without a proper switch-in to Tyranitar. This is another team where Metagross cannot be boomed with impunity for the reliance of the player on it defensively, and this team relies pretty heavily on bulkier tools to sit on defensive mons like the ones triangles brought. With a few tweaks, I think mayo could have won extremely comfortably. I think this kind of build shows promise, but I think I might have taken a different tack with it myself. I can remember arguing with pkLeech about whether Blissey works on this kind of build prior to CI6.
Fruhdazi vs Mielke:
Brother on brother violence. Gyarados kind of sucks at handling birds, and Spikes stall doesn't help with that. I like that Gyara offers similar defensive utility to Zapdos against bulky waters and fire-coverage floaters -- and Aero covers against Cele Pass -- but I mentioned (to Fruh) that I think Mantine would have been far more useful if the desire is to stall. I can recommend this, btw, if you're looking to get a few free wins in a tour match. Anyway, I didn't understand this team and I took my time to consider it and give it a fair shake. I wonder if something like Metagross instead of Aerodactyl bears consideration. Pursuit chips Aero and Gengar, and boom stops Cele Pass and trades with Zapdos. If you use a Mix Meta, it's also probably possible to lure Claydol and make use of Rest+HP Rock Gyara, for example. To clarify, I like the idea of a Gyarados on Spikes who doesn't bleed value against Skarmory (or otherwise demand spending a slot on Magneton) and I think there might be something there. Alternatively, it's possible that one does use Magneton in place of Gengar and Metagross in place of Aerodactyl to allow for CB Gon, and use Gyara+Gon+Spikes to divide floaters and grounded mons both offensively and defensively? There's a promising concept here, but the execution left something to be desired for me. In this game, it was made worse by running into Molt+Mix Mence TSS with phys Tar.
I don't really love mielke's team. M Dragon used a similar team a few years back with Blissey instead of Celebi and Suit Tar. He says that with Celebi, Moltres, and other techs on the team, it should be good against Gengar, but I feel like the team sells out against Spin blocking teams a little too hard, and I don't really understand the synergy of Mence and Moltres, since Molt is hard-walled by Bliss and Mence struggles against its mixed-wall partners. I also don't generally trust Forretress without HP Bug without specific support, but I can appreciate the combination of Leech Seed and Sub Tar as a support core. Maybe I'm getting old.
Blaise vs Endill:
I get why one would support Agility Meta with Aero and Ttar, but again, I don't really like the idea of a Metagross as the sole rock resist, because you can't happily boom it against phys spam, and you tend to want a better switch-in into physical attackers (and Mence, for example). Cele Aero isn't dead yet, though, and Blaise (and her team) called the match-up just fine here. Ditto most of the stuff I said for Johnald's build. I don't trust Def Star.
Endill also brought a classic 6 with a twist. I like thsi team. I also messed around with SkarmMag and Rest Pert (1, 2) a while back, but I ended up disliking the match-up against rock spam, especially when facing Focus Punch Tar, too much. Having to switch Pert into Tar multiple times a game can go horribly wrong, as we saw, especially when Swampert can't Protect, take a Wish, or be woken with Aroma, and when trading into Tar is difficult -- often the reality with SkarmMag when the slot used for Tar isn't a Tar lure or Blissey back-up (which can allow Blissey to play more agressively into Tar, for example). Anyway, I don't really have criticisms for Endill's concept, because I think it's a good team. I just think it pulled a rough match-up. It's not every day you face Tar+Agility Meta+Aero. I think CB Mence teams are generally somewhat poorly equipped to deal with Agility Meta, but this was especially difficult with all of the tools.
Garay oak vs Jabba:
Garay brought a ZapDug build with Swampert>Suicune, no Spin, and Celebi. I think this kind of match-up typifies the state of ZapDug Spec Off in the tier. I think without Suicune, these kinds of teams are wanting for a consistent offensive centerpiece. It might have been possible with Agility Pass Zap to make something like this work. Celebi is also a defensive liability without Spin support, I feel. These kinds of comps tend to be a bit too fishy for my liking.
I initially didn't think much of Jabba's bring. I hate Cune under Sand, because I think so much of its value is unlocked by match-up dividing the Sand and Sandless match-ups conscientiously, and I think it's usually just worse than Pert on tactical team styles and bad at trading for the mons that pair best with Tar. I also don't think an unsupported Forretress -- without Wish or at least Pursuit -- is sufficient Rapid Spin support for Suicune, who demands that support for consistency. It's bo1, though, and the 6 is solid enough to play in general, and I noticed that CB Meta luring Zap or a water helps Cune as well as Aero, and Cune luring Zap allows Meta to break through Swampert. This doesn't really work out cleanly against EC because the opponent's Aero is favored to make progress against this backbone, but the backbone offering trading compensation is something you shouldn't underestimate. Cune also offers a needed Pert check for Aero. Celebi does, too, but it's also allotted a free hand to handle Zapdos and/or Gengar, so it's no longer overtasked. It's a clever team comp. Philosophically, it makes sense and deserves attention.
The teams:
Originally, I wasn't planning on making this post, because I was somewhat disinterested or pessimistic, but I think it's intellectually dishonest to dismiss someone's idea because it doesn't neatly fit into my theories or concepts. I make these posts mostly because I enjoy this, but also because I want to share ideas with others, and I think it helps more to offer commentary on a broader range of ideas. If I've missed the point of a team, I think it's also worth noting that part of the beauty of the game is that complex approaches that can succeed. There isn't one right way to succeed in a tier so complex, but I do worry that the death of Zap Pass might lead to stronger centralization or polarization. In any case, I hope the players have fun playing and building, the spectators enjoy the games, and the readers took something interesting away from this. Here's to the second half being just as fun as the first -- which I think is possible, given that there are fresh faces being subbed in right around the time you might expect some of the players to be burning out. Let's see what happens.
I didn't initially feel most of the stuff that was brought this week, but I would like to highlight concepts and synergies that you might have missed if you're only interested in identifying the 'perfect 6' -- of which I am guilty.
Johnald vs Zinc:
Super standard build by Johnald with a Chesto Rest Thief Skarmory. An interesting wrinkle on a known concept that brings a little something extra. I'm not a fan of Skarmory that is walled by Rapid Spin users, but I think there's something to be said for the upside in this metagame where Registeel and Claydol are quite frequently seen. I think it was a nice call. I don't generally like teams with Metagross as the only rock resist, because I feel the player relies on Meta too much defensively to boom it, and it tends to disappoint when leaned on defensively against all manner of physical attackers. But I think Johnald might be using a Brick Break Mence (with Fire Blast? And DD?) which offers support against Ttar. I think TW on Blissey is very useful for teams that use Metagross in this way, so not to let opposing phys spam get out of control, but people keep loading and winning with this kind of team -- and not for no reason. I think there will always be some love for Metagross (Spikes+)Spin balances, and this game was a good example of why.
Zinc brought a modern mixed offense with Defensive Starmie and Machamp. I think if she had sequenced her threats differently, she might have won this game. Or maybe she needed to bring Claydol instead of Starmie so that Registeel didn't have to eat a Focus Punch (or EQ) from Tyranitar to prevent DD Tar from being so threatening. Imo, she might have been better served by going straight to Mence -- if it had Brick Break -- or Starmie and assuming the Tyranitar was not DD, but I can understand that Starmie switching into a Pursuit Tar would be annoying with Metagross behind. The synergies are there against stall, but I don't think that Machamp trading with Salamence helped any mon except for Mence much, but by the time Mence was clicking DD, Metagross was able to boom it to go 2-for-1, and Tar had already eaten Steel. I'm neither convinced this approach was ideal nor convince it's a bad try. I think she just didn't get value for her tools given the match-up, and I can see this working against Johnald's standard fare -- or maybe a Skarm/Spin/Bliss comp without Metagross AND Starmie.
triangles vs mayo:
I like this kind of build. I have explored similar comps with Blissey or Snorlax. I love the combination of Rest(?) Zap and Milotic and think it frees Milo up to use Ice Beam instead of Refresh more often -- not without downsides, of course -- and I can get behind supporting Milo with double Spin, because it's a threat to trade up in every game. I think it's a very clever way of fitting harder to fit defensive mons, and that Zap+Jira+Milo should be well-suited to taking a few scalps. Of course, this team is slow and susceptible to the same weaknesses as his other Milo+Tar Dugless stall (with Skarm+Bliss>Forre+Zap) and probably more, but I think (HP Grass/Roar/Rest) Zapdos offers enough upside that a team like this is well worth considering. The downsides are being easily haxed and finding it difficult to rk stuff like End Pert, for example (as he almost certainly well knows), but I like this choice and think it should play well against the vast majority of Spikes teams and have a good time against the majority of offenses. I also love that it fits Sand and celebrate the use of Forre+Dol+Wish Jira AND Milo to support a bulky pivoting Ttar. 2x SpD mons next to Tar is enough that Ttar never has to risk its HP unnecessarily, and having 2x Pert checks with Jirachi is a huge add. This team does a lot of little things at a high level. I can't understate how high I am on this kind of comp.
mayo's build had a similar problem to zinc's where the bulky SpD mon is forced to stay in and eat Focus Punch from unrevealed Ttar to slow it down. I don't think BKC Tar is amazing in current meta because it struggles to position itself freely -- more on this later -- but maybe there is real upside in revealing it later in the game? In any case, Blissey doesn't trade for either DDer, and not having a status absorber, like Rest Cune, Refresh Mence, etc. was a problem this game. I was wondering if mayo had Rest anywhere on this team with Aroma Blissey. That might have been interesting. Magneton balance/offense will always have a playable game against defensive teams like triangles', so I think there's a point here that can be celebrated in mayo's build, but I'm not sure how much I trust the team on the defensive end without a proper switch-in to Tyranitar. This is another team where Metagross cannot be boomed with impunity for the reliance of the player on it defensively, and this team relies pretty heavily on bulkier tools to sit on defensive mons like the ones triangles brought. With a few tweaks, I think mayo could have won extremely comfortably. I think this kind of build shows promise, but I think I might have taken a different tack with it myself. I can remember arguing with pkLeech about whether Blissey works on this kind of build prior to CI6.
Fruhdazi vs Mielke:
Brother on brother violence. Gyarados kind of sucks at handling birds, and Spikes stall doesn't help with that. I like that Gyara offers similar defensive utility to Zapdos against bulky waters and fire-coverage floaters -- and Aero covers against Cele Pass -- but I mentioned (to Fruh) that I think Mantine would have been far more useful if the desire is to stall. I can recommend this, btw, if you're looking to get a few free wins in a tour match. Anyway, I didn't understand this team and I took my time to consider it and give it a fair shake. I wonder if something like Metagross instead of Aerodactyl bears consideration. Pursuit chips Aero and Gengar, and boom stops Cele Pass and trades with Zapdos. If you use a Mix Meta, it's also probably possible to lure Claydol and make use of Rest+HP Rock Gyara, for example. To clarify, I like the idea of a Gyarados on Spikes who doesn't bleed value against Skarmory (or otherwise demand spending a slot on Magneton) and I think there might be something there. Alternatively, it's possible that one does use Magneton in place of Gengar and Metagross in place of Aerodactyl to allow for CB Gon, and use Gyara+Gon+Spikes to divide floaters and grounded mons both offensively and defensively? There's a promising concept here, but the execution left something to be desired for me. In this game, it was made worse by running into Molt+Mix Mence TSS with phys Tar.
I don't really love mielke's team. M Dragon used a similar team a few years back with Blissey instead of Celebi and Suit Tar. He says that with Celebi, Moltres, and other techs on the team, it should be good against Gengar, but I feel like the team sells out against Spin blocking teams a little too hard, and I don't really understand the synergy of Mence and Moltres, since Molt is hard-walled by Bliss and Mence struggles against its mixed-wall partners. I also don't generally trust Forretress without HP Bug without specific support, but I can appreciate the combination of Leech Seed and Sub Tar as a support core. Maybe I'm getting old.
Blaise vs Endill:
I get why one would support Agility Meta with Aero and Ttar, but again, I don't really like the idea of a Metagross as the sole rock resist, because you can't happily boom it against phys spam, and you tend to want a better switch-in into physical attackers (and Mence, for example). Cele Aero isn't dead yet, though, and Blaise (and her team) called the match-up just fine here. Ditto most of the stuff I said for Johnald's build. I don't trust Def Star.
Endill also brought a classic 6 with a twist. I like thsi team. I also messed around with SkarmMag and Rest Pert (1, 2) a while back, but I ended up disliking the match-up against rock spam, especially when facing Focus Punch Tar, too much. Having to switch Pert into Tar multiple times a game can go horribly wrong, as we saw, especially when Swampert can't Protect, take a Wish, or be woken with Aroma, and when trading into Tar is difficult -- often the reality with SkarmMag when the slot used for Tar isn't a Tar lure or Blissey back-up (which can allow Blissey to play more agressively into Tar, for example). Anyway, I don't really have criticisms for Endill's concept, because I think it's a good team. I just think it pulled a rough match-up. It's not every day you face Tar+Agility Meta+Aero. I think CB Mence teams are generally somewhat poorly equipped to deal with Agility Meta, but this was especially difficult with all of the tools.
Garay oak vs Jabba:
Garay brought a ZapDug build with Swampert>Suicune, no Spin, and Celebi. I think this kind of match-up typifies the state of ZapDug Spec Off in the tier. I think without Suicune, these kinds of teams are wanting for a consistent offensive centerpiece. It might have been possible with Agility Pass Zap to make something like this work. Celebi is also a defensive liability without Spin support, I feel. These kinds of comps tend to be a bit too fishy for my liking.
I initially didn't think much of Jabba's bring. I hate Cune under Sand, because I think so much of its value is unlocked by match-up dividing the Sand and Sandless match-ups conscientiously, and I think it's usually just worse than Pert on tactical team styles and bad at trading for the mons that pair best with Tar. I also don't think an unsupported Forretress -- without Wish or at least Pursuit -- is sufficient Rapid Spin support for Suicune, who demands that support for consistency. It's bo1, though, and the 6 is solid enough to play in general, and I noticed that CB Meta luring Zap or a water helps Cune as well as Aero, and Cune luring Zap allows Meta to break through Swampert. This doesn't really work out cleanly against EC because the opponent's Aero is favored to make progress against this backbone, but the backbone offering trading compensation is something you shouldn't underestimate. Cune also offers a needed Pert check for Aero. Celebi does, too, but it's also allotted a free hand to handle Zapdos and/or Gengar, so it's no longer overtasked. It's a clever team comp. Philosophically, it makes sense and deserves attention.
The teams:
Originally, I wasn't planning on making this post, because I was somewhat disinterested or pessimistic, but I think it's intellectually dishonest to dismiss someone's idea because it doesn't neatly fit into my theories or concepts. I make these posts mostly because I enjoy this, but also because I want to share ideas with others, and I think it helps more to offer commentary on a broader range of ideas. If I've missed the point of a team, I think it's also worth noting that part of the beauty of the game is that complex approaches that can succeed. There isn't one right way to succeed in a tier so complex, but I do worry that the death of Zap Pass might lead to stronger centralization or polarization. In any case, I hope the players have fun playing and building, the spectators enjoy the games, and the readers took something interesting away from this. Here's to the second half being just as fun as the first -- which I think is possible, given that there are fresh faces being subbed in right around the time you might expect some of the players to be burning out. Let's see what happens.
w6 is up!
[RUI] JabbaTheGriffin vs [SCO] Triangles
[RAI] Endill vs [CLA] Garay oak
[WOL] mielke vs [TIG] pixie909
[CRY] zinc vs [TYR] Shitrock enjoyer
[SHA] mayo vs [BIG] Johnald
[RUI] JabbaTheGriffin vs [SCO] Triangles
[RAI] Endill vs [CLA] Garay oak
[WOL] mielke vs [TIG] pixie909
[CRY] zinc vs [TYR] Shitrock enjoyer
[SHA] mayo vs [BIG] Johnald
JabbaTheGriffin vs Triangles
Endill vs Garay oak
mielke vs pixie909
zinc vs Shitrock enjoyer
mayo vs Johnald
Endill vs Garay oak
mielke vs pixie909
zinc vs Shitrock enjoyer
mayo vs Johnald
JabbaTheGriffin vs Triangles
Endill vs Garay oak
mielke vs pixie909
zinc vs Shitrock enjoyer
mayo vs Johnald
Endill vs Garay oak
mielke vs pixie909
zinc vs Shitrock enjoyer
mayo vs Johnald
[RUI] JabbaTheGriffin vs [SCO] Triangles
[RAI] Endill vs [CLA] Garay oak
[WOL] mielke vs [TIG] pixie909
[CRY] zinc vs [TYR] Shitrock enjoyer
[SHA] mayo vs [BIG] Johnald
[RAI] Endill vs [CLA] Garay oak
[WOL] mielke vs [TIG] pixie909
[CRY] zinc vs [TYR] Shitrock enjoyer
[SHA] mayo vs [BIG] Johnald
JabbaTheGriffin vs Triangles - Triangles is due a bad game. Be that from RNG, MU or just playing bad (least likely). Nah but FR I love both these guys and I had to bold one.
Endill vs Garay oak - I trust my mans to take his last few games on board and come out playing tighter than ever
mielke vs pixie909 - Obrigados (this one is v close)
zinc vs Shitrock enjoyer - Egg
mayo vs Johnald - Johnald has looked on point for the last 3 weeks
Endill vs Garay oak - I trust my mans to take his last few games on board and come out playing tighter than ever
mielke vs pixie909 - Obrigados (this one is v close)
zinc vs Shitrock enjoyer - Egg
mayo vs Johnald - Johnald has looked on point for the last 3 weeks
Johnald vs Zinc:
Johnald uses a very tried-and-true structure here that I am not a fan of. Starmie just faces a lot of issues here relative to claydol, being worse against rock and ground moves and adding a vulnerability to spikes and sand. Additionally, its lower utility against electrics means you likely need to use a slower bulky tyranitar, which really limits your offense on top of the limitations that starmie itself has offensively relative to claydol. Starmie isn't without its upsides of course, being decent into opposing pert and quite good into metagross. I like the presence of physical mence here, even though mixed is a little more natural - I really think this would be a nice spot for something like 3atks refresh mence. Zinc's team is a little more interesting, but I won't pretend to be a slop expert here so I don't really have too much to say about it. Machamp really has to come in for free to be threatening - even with a crit here it didn't actually improve zinc's position very much, but it really did need that crit to accomplish anything at all.
Both players kinda just clicked what was ahead of them and traded everything off. I would have liked to have seen some more aggressive play from zinc to create some sort of imbalance - I don't think the matchup was unwinnable but that style of team doesn't really seem to win by making the expected move every turn. Good on johnald for keeping the game under control the whole way.
Triangles vs Mayo:
Triangles' team is pretty interesting to me. As far as stalls go it seems pretty fragile against offense - if milotic is taken out (or flinched once) it looks like it'll just crumble to tyranitar aerodactyl, and there's no dugtrio to help against calm mind celebi and jirachi - and I don't really understand the gameplan against stall either. BKCtar and rest zapdos are both quite good against stall individually, but they don't really work together much and neither is likely to solo. The more I talk about it the more I'm convincing myself the team isn't good, although it does have a solid set of tools that typically give you options no matter what the matchup is, so for a player like triangles I'm sure it's alright. Mayo's team is fun, and I like the idea at least of solving offense's perennial special attacker problem by just slapping a blissey on there. Blissey doesn't have to click softboiled at every opportunity and there's no requirement to keep it alive until the end of the game, and it's not a terrible momentum sink for offense if you can keep that in mind.
The game itself wasn't super interesting. I'm sure there was some better way for mayo to sequence the endgame and have a 1% chance to win instead of 0.5% but it's not worth working it out. I don't think they played badly, triangles just caught them with the claydol eq on an overzealous double and without metagross it was pretty tough to get anything going.
Fruhdazi vs Mielke:
Mielke's team is really sweet. I love forretress offense, and rapid spin forre without pursuit has been on my mind a couple times. I remember discussing it with callous a few years ago, but I don't think I ever ended up bringing it. Toxic is a great last move on forretress, allowing you to maintain a spike on starmie and non-refresh claydol even having dropped hp bug while also preventing infinite setup from the likes of ddmence, tar, superbi, etc. Having said all that, I don't love the set in general, and I think that zap cannon + hp bug + explosion is too good to pass up on on this type of team. Rapid spin of course has some utility but you're unlikely to actually keep spikes off and the early threat of rapid spin is still there whether you brought the move or not. Anyway, I like the concept of dividing skarm matchups between those that have gengar (typically offenses that have the potential to get shredded by agility molt) and those that do not (which can really struggle to deal with hpfiretress for obvious reasons). Subpunch tar is a very natural punish against attempts to play around pursuit as well. All in all a very interesting team that takes a boring six (one which, if it had the most typical sets, I would say is pretty bad) and flips it on its head. Fruhdazi's team is pretty cool too, showing a unique spin on superman. Rest gyarados is typically a pretty ironclad answer for fire types, although its matchup against mixmence leaves a bit to be desired. The matchup is pretty hard to assess - I think that if fruhdazi had full knowledge of mielke's sets he would have had a clear advantage, but the way the game went it was pretty hard to tell what he needed to prioritize in the moment.
Mielke made a handful of very good plays, notably recognizing when it was the right time to rock slide against flygon. I don't like to harp on about luck in these games, but one has to think that this one could be quite different had flygon hit its toxic against salamence. Of course there are a lot of other turns where something important didn't happen, like gyarados taking 7 dragon claws without being crit (mielke was nice enough to brick break on the crit turn) and aerodactyl coming in on a fire move without taking a burn. Anyway, this was an exciting game to watch.
Pixie909 vs Endill:
I am much less a doomer about the viability of sand in certain structures than most people, but I do have to say that cbmence and blissey (especially with no spin to compliment the magneton) really do not appreciate its presence on endill's team. Wish bliss helps the mence stay healthy but that means a lot of turns that it's staying in, not healing itself and not applying pressure. I do think skarmmag is viable and ttar is viable on it, but aerodactyl and flygon always feel better to me than mence there. I don't love blissey there as I usually approach it a little more offensively and use celebi or zapdos. Blaise's team is pretty much unintelligible to me from a pacing perspective - I do not understand why the celebi is recover here or what a defensive starmie is doing on this team. Not saying it's terrible or anything but I don't understand how it came to be.
The game itself was pretty good, neither player did anything insane in either a positive or negative way. Cbmence is kinda unwallable if you can guess correctly, and this is certainly true against blaise's team, but endill didn't manage to get many predictions correct, which isn't really a skill-testing part of the game in my opinion (although another reason I don't like building with cbmence, especially in sand, is you are putting yourself into a situation where you need to guess right). By the time magneton was full parad against the starmie metagross already won the game single-handedly. Blaise played a good game and endill wasn't quite able to leverage the couple good things he had going in the matchup to a win.
Garay Oak vs Jabba:
I really despise this type of team from Garay, while gengar does help limit some of dugtrio special offense's most glaring issues it's still incredibly weak to some common metagame staples and barely has a gameplan against spikes. By contrast I quite like jabba's team, and I think seeing it is why I had that team I built with callous 4 years ago on my mind while I was writing about mielke's team a couple days ago as this one is much more similar (and I wouldn't be surprised if callous had a hand in this one, or if he was copying a Jabba team when he recommended ddtar forre to me). Anyway, matchups don't really get much better than this and Garay would have needed to come up with some ridiculous plays or serious luck to win this game. I really don't like switching to gengar early against aero for the obvious reasons that were displayed in the game but Garay may well have felt that going pert on double edge was an immediate loss, and I can't really blame him for that. Jabba played the game nice and simple, took almost no risks, and came away with a clean win. By the time cune got a freeze on celebi aero already had the game locked away, pending rock slide accuracy, and the freeze removed even the need for that.
Onto predictions! Total (last week):
15-10 (3-2)
Jabba vs Triangles
I think these guys most recently played a competitive game against each other via link cable, so it's hard to judge this one. Triangles has put up the best performance thus far this tournament, and I expect his unbeaten streak to continue. I wouldn't have told you that he'd go undefeated this tournament and I still don't really expect him to, but I won't fall for the gambler's fallacy here.
Endill vs Garay Oak
Endill is due for a bounceback here (what did I just say two sentences ago?) and has played better than his record would suggest, even though it hasn't been his best performance. Garay has played quite well but has had a couple suspect team choices. Both of these players are capable of hanging with the best of them obviously, but I expect that endill will come up with a teambuilder advantage somehow.
Mielke vs Pixie909
I've been very high on mielke's play and teams up to this point and this week was better than the last two. Blaise has had a very good showing as well but just a bit less impressive to me, though the longer this game goes the more I would start to favor her.
Mayo vs Johnald
Johnald has had an amazing tournament so far and I'm excited to see what he's got coming, although some of his games are best watched with a lot of skipping turns or on super fast mode. Mayo has been close in several of these games and, like endill, I think has played better than their record would suggest, but either way I think johnald has to be favored here.
Edit: I forgot this one oops
zinc vs fruhdazi
Zinc has played really well so far and I would say has made very few mistakes either in gameplay or in the builder. However, I think some of her teams have been pretty derivative of fruhdazi's builds, and that that familiarity will give him the edge here, as well as this being a get-right game after losing the previous week.
Johnald uses a very tried-and-true structure here that I am not a fan of. Starmie just faces a lot of issues here relative to claydol, being worse against rock and ground moves and adding a vulnerability to spikes and sand. Additionally, its lower utility against electrics means you likely need to use a slower bulky tyranitar, which really limits your offense on top of the limitations that starmie itself has offensively relative to claydol. Starmie isn't without its upsides of course, being decent into opposing pert and quite good into metagross. I like the presence of physical mence here, even though mixed is a little more natural - I really think this would be a nice spot for something like 3atks refresh mence. Zinc's team is a little more interesting, but I won't pretend to be a slop expert here so I don't really have too much to say about it. Machamp really has to come in for free to be threatening - even with a crit here it didn't actually improve zinc's position very much, but it really did need that crit to accomplish anything at all.
Both players kinda just clicked what was ahead of them and traded everything off. I would have liked to have seen some more aggressive play from zinc to create some sort of imbalance - I don't think the matchup was unwinnable but that style of team doesn't really seem to win by making the expected move every turn. Good on johnald for keeping the game under control the whole way.
Triangles vs Mayo:
Triangles' team is pretty interesting to me. As far as stalls go it seems pretty fragile against offense - if milotic is taken out (or flinched once) it looks like it'll just crumble to tyranitar aerodactyl, and there's no dugtrio to help against calm mind celebi and jirachi - and I don't really understand the gameplan against stall either. BKCtar and rest zapdos are both quite good against stall individually, but they don't really work together much and neither is likely to solo. The more I talk about it the more I'm convincing myself the team isn't good, although it does have a solid set of tools that typically give you options no matter what the matchup is, so for a player like triangles I'm sure it's alright. Mayo's team is fun, and I like the idea at least of solving offense's perennial special attacker problem by just slapping a blissey on there. Blissey doesn't have to click softboiled at every opportunity and there's no requirement to keep it alive until the end of the game, and it's not a terrible momentum sink for offense if you can keep that in mind.
The game itself wasn't super interesting. I'm sure there was some better way for mayo to sequence the endgame and have a 1% chance to win instead of 0.5% but it's not worth working it out. I don't think they played badly, triangles just caught them with the claydol eq on an overzealous double and without metagross it was pretty tough to get anything going.
Fruhdazi vs Mielke:
Mielke's team is really sweet. I love forretress offense, and rapid spin forre without pursuit has been on my mind a couple times. I remember discussing it with callous a few years ago, but I don't think I ever ended up bringing it. Toxic is a great last move on forretress, allowing you to maintain a spike on starmie and non-refresh claydol even having dropped hp bug while also preventing infinite setup from the likes of ddmence, tar, superbi, etc. Having said all that, I don't love the set in general, and I think that zap cannon + hp bug + explosion is too good to pass up on on this type of team. Rapid spin of course has some utility but you're unlikely to actually keep spikes off and the early threat of rapid spin is still there whether you brought the move or not. Anyway, I like the concept of dividing skarm matchups between those that have gengar (typically offenses that have the potential to get shredded by agility molt) and those that do not (which can really struggle to deal with hpfiretress for obvious reasons). Subpunch tar is a very natural punish against attempts to play around pursuit as well. All in all a very interesting team that takes a boring six (one which, if it had the most typical sets, I would say is pretty bad) and flips it on its head. Fruhdazi's team is pretty cool too, showing a unique spin on superman. Rest gyarados is typically a pretty ironclad answer for fire types, although its matchup against mixmence leaves a bit to be desired. The matchup is pretty hard to assess - I think that if fruhdazi had full knowledge of mielke's sets he would have had a clear advantage, but the way the game went it was pretty hard to tell what he needed to prioritize in the moment.
Mielke made a handful of very good plays, notably recognizing when it was the right time to rock slide against flygon. I don't like to harp on about luck in these games, but one has to think that this one could be quite different had flygon hit its toxic against salamence. Of course there are a lot of other turns where something important didn't happen, like gyarados taking 7 dragon claws without being crit (mielke was nice enough to brick break on the crit turn) and aerodactyl coming in on a fire move without taking a burn. Anyway, this was an exciting game to watch.
Pixie909 vs Endill:
I am much less a doomer about the viability of sand in certain structures than most people, but I do have to say that cbmence and blissey (especially with no spin to compliment the magneton) really do not appreciate its presence on endill's team. Wish bliss helps the mence stay healthy but that means a lot of turns that it's staying in, not healing itself and not applying pressure. I do think skarmmag is viable and ttar is viable on it, but aerodactyl and flygon always feel better to me than mence there. I don't love blissey there as I usually approach it a little more offensively and use celebi or zapdos. Blaise's team is pretty much unintelligible to me from a pacing perspective - I do not understand why the celebi is recover here or what a defensive starmie is doing on this team. Not saying it's terrible or anything but I don't understand how it came to be.
The game itself was pretty good, neither player did anything insane in either a positive or negative way. Cbmence is kinda unwallable if you can guess correctly, and this is certainly true against blaise's team, but endill didn't manage to get many predictions correct, which isn't really a skill-testing part of the game in my opinion (although another reason I don't like building with cbmence, especially in sand, is you are putting yourself into a situation where you need to guess right). By the time magneton was full parad against the starmie metagross already won the game single-handedly. Blaise played a good game and endill wasn't quite able to leverage the couple good things he had going in the matchup to a win.
Garay Oak vs Jabba:
I really despise this type of team from Garay, while gengar does help limit some of dugtrio special offense's most glaring issues it's still incredibly weak to some common metagame staples and barely has a gameplan against spikes. By contrast I quite like jabba's team, and I think seeing it is why I had that team I built with callous 4 years ago on my mind while I was writing about mielke's team a couple days ago as this one is much more similar (and I wouldn't be surprised if callous had a hand in this one, or if he was copying a Jabba team when he recommended ddtar forre to me). Anyway, matchups don't really get much better than this and Garay would have needed to come up with some ridiculous plays or serious luck to win this game. I really don't like switching to gengar early against aero for the obvious reasons that were displayed in the game but Garay may well have felt that going pert on double edge was an immediate loss, and I can't really blame him for that. Jabba played the game nice and simple, took almost no risks, and came away with a clean win. By the time cune got a freeze on celebi aero already had the game locked away, pending rock slide accuracy, and the freeze removed even the need for that.
Onto predictions! Total (last week):
15-10 (3-2)
Jabba vs Triangles
I think these guys most recently played a competitive game against each other via link cable, so it's hard to judge this one. Triangles has put up the best performance thus far this tournament, and I expect his unbeaten streak to continue. I wouldn't have told you that he'd go undefeated this tournament and I still don't really expect him to, but I won't fall for the gambler's fallacy here.
Endill vs Garay Oak
Endill is due for a bounceback here (what did I just say two sentences ago?) and has played better than his record would suggest, even though it hasn't been his best performance. Garay has played quite well but has had a couple suspect team choices. Both of these players are capable of hanging with the best of them obviously, but I expect that endill will come up with a teambuilder advantage somehow.
Mielke vs Pixie909
I've been very high on mielke's play and teams up to this point and this week was better than the last two. Blaise has had a very good showing as well but just a bit less impressive to me, though the longer this game goes the more I would start to favor her.
Mayo vs Johnald
Johnald has had an amazing tournament so far and I'm excited to see what he's got coming, although some of his games are best watched with a lot of skipping turns or on super fast mode. Mayo has been close in several of these games and, like endill, I think has played better than their record would suggest, but either way I think johnald has to be favored here.
Edit: I forgot this one oops
zinc vs fruhdazi
Zinc has played really well so far and I would say has made very few mistakes either in gameplay or in the builder. However, I think some of her teams have been pretty derivative of fruhdazi's builds, and that that familiarity will give him the edge here, as well as this being a get-right game after losing the previous week.
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SPL ADV WEEK FIVE WITH ZETTS TAP IN
Week 7 is up! Classiest's M Dragon steps into ADV, with Garay Oak heading to SV; Kollin7 starts again, as the Stark Sharks rotate their ADV for the 3rd time this tournament; and 5 win streak Johnald clashes against the undefeated Triangles, who will rise victorious?
[SCO] Triangles vs [BIG] Johnald
[TYR] shitrock enjoyer vs [SHA] Kollin7
[TIG] pixie909 vs [CRY] zinc
[CLA] M Dragon vs [WOL] mielke
[RUI] JabbaTheGriffin vs [RAI] Endill
PD: we are about to hit 100 replies which is an insane milestone for a SPL thread!
[SCO] Triangles vs [BIG] Johnald
[TYR] shitrock enjoyer vs [SHA] Kollin7
[TIG] pixie909 vs [CRY] zinc
[CLA] M Dragon vs [WOL] mielke
[RUI] JabbaTheGriffin vs [RAI] Endill
Triangles vs Johnald
shitrock enjoyer vs Kollin7
pixie909 vs zinc
M Dragon vs mielke
JabbaTheGriffin vs Endill
shitrock enjoyer vs Kollin7
pixie909 vs zinc
M Dragon vs mielke
JabbaTheGriffin vs Endill
PD: we are about to hit 100 replies which is an insane milestone for a SPL thread!
Triangles vs Johnald
shitrock enjoyer vs Kollin7
pixie909 vs zinc
M Dragon vs mielke
JabbaTheGriffin vs Endill
shitrock enjoyer vs Kollin7
pixie909 vs zinc
M Dragon vs mielke
JabbaTheGriffin vs Endill
Doing gods work with this thread bro
